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ENGR 3360U Winter 2014

Unit 10-2
Risk Identification
Dr. J. Michael Bennett, P. Eng., PMP,
UOIT,
Version 2014-I-01

Unit 10 Project Risk Management

Change Record
2014-I-01 Initial Creation

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2014-I-01

Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP

ENGR 3360

Unit 10 Project Risk Management

10.2 Risk Identification

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10.2.1 Inputs
.1 EEP
.2 OPA
.3 Project Scope Statement
.4 Risk Management Plan
. 5 PMP
10.2.2 Tools and Techniques
.1 Documentation Reviews
.2 Info Gathering Techniques
.3 Checklist Analysis
.4 Assumptions Analysis
.5 Diagramming Techniques
10.2.3 Output
.1 Risk Register
2014-I-01

Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP

ENGR 3360

Unit 10 Project Risk Management

Risk Identification
Determines which risks might affect the
project and document their characteristics
Who does this
PM, team members, management team
SMEs, other external experts
Customers, end users
Stakeholders

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2014-I-01

Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP

ENGR 3360

Unit 10 Project Risk Management

Risk Identification
Step 1: Capture the Statement of Risk
Step 2: Capture the Context of the Risk

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Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP

ENGR 3360

Unit 10 Project Risk Management

Our Risk Paradigm


Control
Track

Plan

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2014-I-01

Identify

Q&Q Analyze

Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP

ENGR 3360

Unit 10 Project Risk Management

Step 1: Capturing a Statement of Risk


The Risk statement consists of 2 parts
condition: a single phrase describing the key
circumstances, situations, causing concern,
doubt, anxiety, uncertainty
consequence: a single sentence describing the
key (normally negative) outcomes of the
current situation

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2014-I-01

Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP

ENGR 3360

Unit 10 Project Risk Management

Example
Condition: The GUI must be coded using X
Windows and we do not have expertise in X
Windows
Consequence: The GUI code may not be
completed in time and may be inefficient

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2014-I-01

Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP

ENGR 3360

Unit 10 Project Risk Management

Step 2: Capturing the Context of a Risk


This includes recording additional
information regarding the circumstances,
events and interrelationships that may affect
the risk
intent is to provide enough extra
information that other people can
understand the risk, particularly after time
has passed
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2014-I-01

Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP

ENGR 3360

Unit 10 Project Risk Management

Example
A GUI is.. And we need one because
The graphical interface is an important part
of the system and we do not have anyone
trained in X Windows. We have all been
studying the language but it is complex and
only one person on the team has any
graphics experience and that is with
Windows on a PC.
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2014-I-01

Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP

ENGR 3360

Unit 10 Project Risk Management

10.2.2 Risk Identification: T&T


.1 Documentation Reviews
.2 Info Gathering Techniques
.3 Checklist Analysis
.4 Assumptions Analysis
.5 Diagramming Techniques

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2014-I-01

Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP

ENGR 3360

Unit 10 Project Risk Management

.1 Documentation Reviews
Structured review of
Project documentation
Plans, assumptions
Prior project morgue files
Check the consistency of the various plans

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2014-I-01

Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP

ENGR 3360

Unit 10 Project Risk Management

.2 Information Gathering Techniques


Brainstorming
Delphi technique
Interviewing
Root cause identification
SWOT analysis

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2014-I-01

Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP

ENGR 3360

Unit 10 Project Risk Management

.3 Checklist Analysis
Like Boehms list
Org should have one
Check out textbooks
Look at the lowest level of the RBS/WBS
Note that we cannot build an exhaustive list,
ever!

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2014-I-01

Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP

ENGR 3360

Unit 10 Project Risk Management

.4 Assumptions Analysis
Find the assumptions
Check out the validity of the assumptions
Look at the inaccuracy, inconsistencies,
incompleteness of those assumptions

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2014-I-01

Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP

ENGR 3360

Unit 10 Project Risk Management

.5 Diagramming Techniques
Ishikawas
Process flow charts
Influence diagrams

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Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP

ENGR 3360

Unit 10 Project Risk Management

Ishikawa Diagrams
Environment

People

frequent changes

Process
hard to modify

inexperience

icons most trouble

inaccurate timing

hard
coded

new contractor

Unit 12
costs
50% of all
Effort LQ

test HW down
ps finding parts

new time system

No spares
few spares

Measurement

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Machines

Materials

Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP

ENGR 3360

Unit 10 Project Risk Management

Sample Process Flowchart


1
Project
Request

2
Compliance
Copy

PMBOK page 194

3
Develop
Artwork
NO

7
Vendor makes
Proofs
NO

6
Artwork out
for Proofs

5
CC for
Specs

4
OK?
YES

NO

8
Proofs
acceptable?

YES

9
QA Review
Approval?

YES

10
Proof back
to Vendor

11
Specs Signed

12 Order
Materials

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Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP

ENGR 3360

Unit 10 Project Risk Management

10.2.3 Risk Identification: Outputs


Risk Registry
A PMI term to indicate the repository of all of
the information associated with risks
Available to other planning areas and processes

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Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP

ENGR 3360

Unit 10 Project Risk Management

Risk Registry
List of identified risks
List of potential responses
Root causes of the risks
Updated risk categories

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Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP

ENGR 3360

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