Anda di halaman 1dari 18

Bootstrap Method

Random Sampling With Replacement

Kumar Abhishek Singh (12BPE110)


Yatharth Shukla (12BPE107)
Paras Gopani (12BPE036)
Abhi Chaudhary (12BPE016)

How to Describe
the
Characteristics of
the Population
Using a single
sample point

Example of Bootstrap
Method

POROSITY

DEPTH(m)

24

1000

MEAN POROSITY

25

1050

24.48148148

25

1100

24

1150

Median Porosity

26

1200

25

28

1250

Standard Deviation

25

1300

2.736791642

26

1350

21

1400

23

1450

24

1500

26

1550

24

1600

24

1650

24

1700

19

1750

20

1800

2
5
2
6
2
4
2
1
2
5
2
5
2
6
2
4
2
3
3
0
2

2
6
2
5
3
1
2
5
2
4
2
6
2
6
2
0
2
4
2
1
2

2
5
2
0
2
1
2
5
2
5
2
3
2
5
2
3
2
5
2
5
2

2
5
2
4
2
5
3
0
2
1
1
9
2
6
2
3
1
9
3
1
2

2
4
2
6
2
5
2
5
2
3
3
1
2
4
2
5
3
0
2
6
2

2
8
2
6
2
5
2
6
2
0
2
4
2
5
2
4
2
4
2
1
2

2
6
3
0
2
4
2
4
2
8
2
5
2
1
2
0
2
4
2
1
3

2
1
2
4
2
5
2
3
2
6
2
5
2
4
2
3
2
6
2
6
2

2
6
2
5
1
9
2
6
2
5
2
6
2
6
2
4
2
4
2
6
2

2
4
2
1
2
5
2
6
2
0
2
6
2
4
2
4
2
1
2
6
2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1
1 5 5 0 6 5 1 5 1 9
2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2
4 4 5 9 0 1 4 8 5 5
2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
4 9 5 5 6 5 5 0 4 6
2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2
5 6 5 0 4 5 5 5 6 5
2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
4 0 5 6 5 3 4 8 5 5
2 2 3 2 2 3 2 3 2 3
6 0 1 3 4 0 6 1 4 1
2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2
6 1 0Synthetic
5 4 1 4 4 0 4
2samples
2 2 2 2 2 from
2 2 2a
2
4 single
5 6 5 1 sample
5 6 6 4 5
2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2
point
6 6 5 6 9 6 1 5 5 4
2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 5 6 9 5 5 5 8 0 4
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2
1
2
3
2
6
1
9
1
9
2
5
2
5
2
4
1
9
2
4
1

2
5
2
0
2
5
3
0
2
6
2
4
3
1
2
1
2
5
1
9
2

2
4
2
3
2
4
2
3
2
1
2
5
2
0
2
4
2
4
2
0
2

1
9
3
0
3
1
2
6
2
4
3
1
2
5
2
5
2
4
2
5
2

2
6
2
5
2
4
2
5
2
4
2
8
2
5
1
9
2
4
2
5
2

2
6
2
6
2
4
2
6
2
3
2
4
2
8
2
5
2
1
3
1
2

2
6
2
5
2
6
2
5
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
4
2
8
2
6
2

2
4
2
6
2
6
2
0
2
5
2
6
2
6
2
0
2
5
2
5
2

2
5
3
1
2
5
2
4
2
4
2
5
2
4
2
5
2
6
2
1
2

2
6
2
5
2
5
2
4
2
5
2
1
2
1
2
5
1
9
2
4
2

2
4
2
3
2
5
2
5
2
0
2
6
2
0
2
5
2
3
2
4
2

2
5
2
3
2
5
3
1
2
1
2
1
2
6
3
1
2
1
2
4
2

MEAN
24.03125
24.4375
24.65625
25.15625
23.875
25.34375
24.59375
23.90625
23.8125
24.34375
24.125
24.3125
24.53125
24.34375
24.71875
24.90625
25.40625

LOWE
MEDIAN
R
UPPER mean
25
23.56 25.468
25
75
24.515625
25
25
standard
25
deviation
24
0.493767054
25
25
1.06
24
1.04
1.02
24 What we
1
25
got ??0.98
25
95% 0.96
24
0.94
Confidence
25
0.92
25
0.9
25
0.88
20
25
30
35
40
45
25
25
Bootstrap
distribution

50

Situations Where Bootstrapping


is Useful
When the theoretical distribution of a statistic of interest is complicated or
unknown. Since the bootstrapping procedure is distribution-independent it
provides an indirect method to assess the properties of the distribution
underlying the sample and the parameters of interest that are derived from
this distribution.
When the sample size is insufficient for straightforward statistical inference.
If the underlying distribution is well-known, bootstrapping provides a way to
account for the distortions caused by the specific sample that may not be
fully representative of the population.
When power calculations have to be performed, and a small pilot sample is
available. Most power and sample size calculations are heavily dependent
on the standard deviation of the statistic of interest. If the estimate used is
incorrect, the required sample size will also be wrong. One method to get
an impression of the variation of the statistic is to use a small pilot sample
and perform bootstrapping on it to get impression of the variance.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bootstrapping_(s

Advantages
A great advantage of bootstrap is its
simplicity. It is a straightforward way to derive
estimates
ofstandard errorsand
confidence intervalsfor complex estimators of
complex parameters of the distribution, such
as percentile points, proportions, odds ratio,
and correlation coefficients. Bootstrap is also
an appropriate way to control and check the
stability of the results. Although for most
problems it is impossible to know the true
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bootstrappin
confidence
interval,
bootstrap
is
g_(statistics)
asymptotically more accurate than the

Disadvantages

Although bootstrapping is (under some


conditions) asymptotically consistent, it does
not
provide
general
finite-sample
guarantees. The apparent simplicity may
conceal the fact that important assumptions
are being made when undertaking the
bootstrap analysis (e.g. independence of
samples) where these would be more
formallyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bootstrapping_(st
stated in other approaches.
atistics)

Applications in Petroleum
Industry
Reserve estimation using Monte Carlo
Simulation

Uncertainty quantification of DCA production forecast of


an oil well with a 2-year production history Using
Bootstrap Method
Three parameters required for forecast using DCA are
b=hyperbolic constant
qi=initial production rate
d=decline rate (x/year)

References
https://nanohub.org/resources/17583/watch?
resid=17597
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_met
hod
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bootstrapping_(st
atistics)
http://petrowiki.org/PEH
%3ARisk_and_Decision_Analysis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=flGyCXJ0Snc