Anda di halaman 1dari 30

The Basic Reliability Calculations

Definition
Reliability is a general quality of an object an ability to
perform a desired function, sustaining the values of rated
operational indicators in given limits and time according to
given technical conditions.

Reliability is probability that an activity of an appliance in


given time and given operation conditions will be adequate
to its purpose.
EIA (Electronic Industry Association, USA)

Reliability Calculations
1. Reliability of single parts of networks in the time of
production of project documentation

2. Reliability of already operated networks

3. Reliability in the area of control of electric power


system operation

Numerical Representation of Reliability


(Classical - reliability of elements)
failure rate [ year-1]
mean time of failure [ h ]
probability of failure-free run R [ - ]
probability of failure Q [ - ]
mean time between failures tS [ h ]

Restored x Not restored objects


Mean time between failures x Mean time to failure

Global Indices of Reliability


(Reliability of electric energy supply)
Outage rate - SAIFI

average system outage rate

(number of outages/year/consumer)

Total time of all outages - SAIDI

average system outage time

(min/year/consumer)

Time of one outage - CAIDI


(min/outage)

average outage time at a customer

Bathtub curve

Early failure
period

Constant failure rate period

II

Wear-out failure
period

III

The relation between the function of reliability and


failure rate is:

R(t) exp (t)dt


0

For failure rate it is valid:

1 dR(t)
(t)
R(t) dt

Division of Probability of Failure


Exponential division
Exponential rule of failure

R(t) e

Q(t) 1 e

f(t) e

Poissons division

Qk (t)

k
t

k!

If k = 0, there is probability of no failure, therefore probability of


failure-free running.

Weibulls deal
( t )

Q(t) 1 e

Calculation of Reliability in Electricity


Industry
Obtaining of input values for reliability calculations
A priori reliability determination of reliability quantities from data of a producer.
Empirical reliability monitoring of failures in electricity industry.

The empirical method is mostly used for obtaining the input values for reliability
calculations, because an application of a priori reliability method requires different
attitude to every element of electricity system.

Analysis of Distribution Network Failure Databases

Exclusive outage databases had been on the rise since 1975 in the
former Czechoslovakia.
Unfortunately, database building stopped in1990 because of political
and social changes.
Thanks to the expert group CIRED Czech distributors opted for
unified monitoring of global reliability indices and the reliability of
selected pieces of equipment in 1999 again.
Data for the reliability computation is centrally processed and
analyzed at the VSB - Technical University of Ostrava since the year
2000.
Collected data are often heterogeneous.
It is necessary to solve the storage, indexing, and also transformation
of such data.
We need to create a common relational scheme for the storage of the
data, a new relation makes the querying and analysis possible.

Database range

Heterogeneous Data

We developed a common relational schema.

Results

Failure rate

N

Z P

(year-1)

N = number of failures (-)


Z = number of elements of the given type
in the network (-)
P = the considered period (year)

Results

Mean duration of the failure


N

t
i 1

N = number of failures (-)

ti = the considered period (h)

(h)

Results

The value tendency of reliability indices of the


22 kV cable

Results

Comparison with methodology EZ 22/80

Results

Division of failures according to their causes

The Main Calculation Methods of


Reliability
Department of electrical power engineering

Markovs processes
Method of reliabilty schemes
Simulative methods

Method of Reliability Schemes


-

make-up of reliability diagram,


assignment of relevant reliability quantities to single elements,
simplification of reliability diagram towards one element,

Advantages:
-

considered systems do not have to really exist as yet,


procedure of solving is well-arranged and not exacting concerning
mathematics,
mathematical procedure does not require iterative calculation,
accuracy of results depends only on the accuracy of input parameters
of calculation.

Disadvantages:
-

it is impossible to pursue power balance of network,


T type bay can be modelled only approximately.

Rule of Multiplication of Probabilities :

P A,B P A . P B
P(A)

probability of occurrence of A

P(B)

probability of occurrence of B

Series systems
A failure of one element leads to a failure of a system.
1

Probability of failure-free run:


n

R V R 1 . R 2 . ......R n R i
i 1

Parallel Systems
A failure of a system occurs when all elements have a failure
1
2
n

Probability of a failure:

Q V Q1 . Q 2 . ......Qn Qi
i 1

Probability of failure-free run:


n

R V 1 Q i
i 1

Simplified
Probability of failure-free run:

.
R 1
8760

Methodology of Calculation of Reliability


according to EZ 22/80 Regulation
Advantages:
takes into account maintenance outages,
enables to include manipulation into calculation as well, takes so-called cold
reserves into account.
The disadvantage is that this methodology does not include so-called coordination
of maintenance.
These operating states are considered with calculation:
operation,
failure outage,
maintenance outage.
Supposition and simplification:
-

the effect of weather on failure rate and repair rate is not taken into account,
exponential division of distributive function of time of failures
and repairs for all elements of electric network is taken into account,
average data are started from.

Series connection of elements


For this circuit with two elements it holds:

P P1 P2

U U1 U2

P U
P ... Failure rate [year-1]
U ... Maintenance rate [year-1]
... Outage rate (maintenance + repair) [year-1]
Mean times of outages of a two-elements system:

P1 . P1 P2 . P2
P
P

U1 . U1 U2 . U2
U
U

Parallel connection of elements hot reserve


Failure rate:

PP

U1 P2 U1 U2 P1 U2 P1 P2 P1 P2
8760

Mean time of failure:

PP

1
8760 PP

U1 P2 U1

U1 P2

U2 P1 U2 U2 P1 P1 P2 P1 P2
U1 P2
U2 P1

Maintenance outage cannot occur at this connection, because at the failure of one
element maintenance of another element will not begin.

Parallel circuit of elements cold reserve

PM PP P1
PM
M

PP PP P1 M
MP
. Manipulation time [h]

Simulation Methods of Calculation of Reliability


It is necessary to know the intensity of outages and mean time of outages of all the
elements of a system.
Simulation - numerical method which resides in experimenting with mathematical
models of real systems on numerical computers.

Advantages:
- considered systems do not have to really exist as yet,
- considered systems can be too complicated for using analytical methods,
- simulation makes possible study of behaviour of systems in real, accelerated, or
retarded time. The second possibility is the most important in this case,
because the processes of outage of elements and their re-introduction into
operation are very slow. It would be very inefficient to study them in any other
time but accelerated.
- with simulation it is possible to verify results obtained by other independant
processes,
- possibility of modelling T type bays
- simple power balance of a diagram is carried out, outage is always simulated at
overloaded elements.

Disadvantages of simulation methods:

- construction of a useful simulation model is very time-consuming. Mostly


several variants of a model are needed.
- simulation is a numerical method, so a solution of certain problem cannot be
generally transferred on analogous problems.
- the results obtained from stochastic simulation models are values of
accidental quantities, and it would be very computer time-consuming if their
accuracy should be increased
- precision of results depends on the number of iterations,
- the needed number of iterations depends on the extent of the solved
network and on the required precision.