Modern Portfolio
Concepts
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What is a Portfolio?
Portfolio is a collection of investments
assembled to meet one or more investment
goals.
Efficient portfolio
A portfolio that provides the highest return for a
given level of risk
Requires search for investment alternatives to
get the best combinations of risk and return
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Return on Portfolio
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Correlation:
Why Diversification Works!
Correlation is a statistical measure of the
relationship between two series of numbers
representing data
Positively Correlated items tend to move in the
same direction
Negatively Correlated items tend to move in
opposite directions
Correlation Coefficient is a measure of the
degree of correlation between two series of
numbers representing data
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Correlation Coefficients
Perfectly Positively Correlated describes two
positively correlated series having a
correlation coefficient of +1
Perfectly Negatively Correlated describes
two negatively correlated series having a
correlation coefficient of -1
Uncorrelated describes two series that lack
any relationship and have a correlation
coefficient of nearly zero
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Correlation:
Why Diversification Works!
Assets that are less than perfectly positively
correlated tend to offset each others
movements, thus reducing the overall risk
in a portfolio
The lower the correlation the more the
overall risk in a portfolio is reduced
Assets with +1 correlation eliminate no risk
Assets with less than +1 correlation eliminate some risk
Assets with less than 0 correlation eliminate more risk
Assets with -1 correlation eliminate all risk
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International Diversification
Advantages of International Diversification
Broader investment choices
Potentially greater returns than in U.S.
Reduction of overall portfolio risk
Disadvantages of International
Diversification
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Methods of
International Diversification
Foreign company stocks listed on U.S. stock
exchanges
Yankee Bonds
American Depository Shares (ADSs)
Mutual funds investing in foreign stocks
U.S. multinational companies (typically not
considered a true international investment for
diversification purposes)
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Components of Risk
Diversifiable (Unsystematic) Risk
Results from uncontrollable or random events
that are firm-specific
Can be eliminated through diversification
Examples: labor strikes, lawsuits
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Components of Risk
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Interpreting Beta
Higher stock betas should result in higher expected
returns due to greater risk
If the market is expected to increase 10%, a stock
with a beta of 1.50 is expected to increase 15%
If the market went down 8%, then a stock with a
beta of 0.50 should only decrease by about 4%
Beta values for specific stocks can be obtained
from Value Line reports or websites such as
yahoo.com
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Interpreting Beta
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Capital Asset
Pricing Model (CAPM) (contd)
Uses beta, the risk-free rate and the market
return to define the required return on an
investment
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Capital Asset
Pricing Model (CAPM) (contd)
CAPM can also be shown as a graph
Security Market Line (SML) is the picture
of the CAPM
Find the SML by calculating the required
return for a number of betas, then plotting
them on a graph
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Traditional Approach
Emphasizes balancing the portfolio using a
wide variety of stocks and/or bonds
Uses a broad range of industries to diversify
the portfolio
Tends to focus on well-known companies
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Expected returns
Standard deviation of returns
Correlation between returns
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