OF
D G KHAN CEMENT LTD
SUBMITED TO:
SIR HAMZA MUKHTAR
SUBMITED BY:-
UMAR FAROOQ 2008-ag-197
QAMAR SHAHZAD 2008-ag-184
AREA OF DISCUSSION
We conduct our analysis on following issues
Economy Analysis
Industry Analysis
Firm Analysis
ECONOMY OF PAKISTAN
Pakistan economy is combination of industrial 26.8% ,
agricultural 19.6% and service sector 53.7% and industry
sector includes textile, cement, chemical, food processing,
steel, transport, clothing and paper products . Exports are
$17.78 billion and Imports are $30.99 billion. Economy of
Pakistan is the 27th largest economy of the world in term of
purchasing power and 48th largest in absolute dollar terms .
The economy has suffered in the past from internal political
disputes, a fast growing population , mixed level of foreign
investment and a costly ongoing confrontation with
neighboring India. However IMF approved government
policies , bolstered by foreign investment and renewed
access to global markets , have generated solid
macroeconomic recovery the last decade . Substantial
macroeconomic reforms since 2000 most notably at
privatizing the banking sector have helped the economy
ECONOMIC GROWTH
In current year Pakistan economic growth rate is
decreased as compared to the previous year by 1.7% . The
growth is 4.1% where as the last year growth was 5.8%
Major factors , which cause in decrease in growth rate are
Internal factors
Political instability
Unstable law and order
Power resources crisis
War against terrorism
External factors
International financial crises
GDP OF PAKISTAN
9 9
8 7.5
7 6.8
6 5.8 5.8
5
GDP
4
2
2
1
0
2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
COMPARISON OF GDP IN
10
SOUTH ASIA 10
8
7.5
7 .
6.8 6.7
6 6 6.3 6.3
5.8
5.8 PAKISTAN
5.6
5 INDIA
4.9
4.8 SRILANKA
4
BANGLADESH
3
1 2
0
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
OTHER FACTORS OF
ECONOMIC GROWTH
Inflation
Remains the biggest threat to the economy , jumping to more
than 9% in 2005 before easing to 7.9% in 2006 . In 2008 following the surge
in global petrol prices inflation in Pakistan has reached as high as 25% . The
central bank is pursuing the tighter monetary policy while trying to preserve
growth.
Recent situation
The CPI inflation averaged 23.5% in July-February 2008-09 as against 8.9% in
the comparable period of last year.
The food inflation is estimated at 28.9%in July-February 2008-09 as against
13.0%in the comparable period of last year.
The non-food inflation stood at 19.3%, against 5.9% in the corresponding
period of last year.
The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) during first eight months of 2008-09 has
increased by 24.7%, as against 11.7% in the comparable period of last year.
Inflation in Pakistan has shown rigidity to monetary policy measures
because on one side there is a concretionary monetary policy and on the
other an expansionary fiscal policy.
OTHER FACTORS OF ECONOMIC
GROWTH (CONTINUE)
MONETARY POLICY
Monetary policy stance of the SBP has
undergone considerable changes over the last seven years, gradually
switching from an easy monetary policy to the current aggressive tight
monetary policy stance depending on the inflationary situation in the
country. During FY08, the SBP continued with a tight monetary policy
stance, thrice raising the discount rate and increased the Cash Reserve
Requirement (CRR) and Statutory Liquidity Requirement (SLR).
In the monetary policy decision of 29 SEP 2009 the SBP policy rate was
decided 13%
And in the monetary policy decision of 24 NOV 2009 SBP policy rate was
lowered by 50 bps to 12.5%
INTEREST RATES IN PAKISTAN
14
12.5
12
10 10.2 10.6
8
8.5
INTEREST RATE
6
0
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
OTHER FACTORS OF ECONOMIC
GROWTH (CONTINUE)
CAPITAL MARKET
Pakistan’s stock market has emerged as one of the fastest growing
markets in emerging economies in recent years. Local and foreign
investors’ confidence in the investment environment of Pakistan has
boosted the index to peak highs
Pakistan’s benchmarked stock market index - the Karachi Stock
Exchange - KSE-100 index has increased from 1,521 points on
June 30, 2000 to 12,130.5 points on May 30, 2008.
But latest financial crunch also effects the market index.
Now in DEC 2009 KSE 100 index is at 9072 points
Major factors of this decline are:
Political uncertainty
Uncertain law and order situation
War against terror
PAKISTANS TRADING
EXPORTS:
In absolute terms, exports have increased from $ 15.3 billion to $ 17.78
billion
Major exported goods are textile goods , rice , leather goods , sports
goods , chemicals , carpets , cement etc.
Trade 4.9%
The Three Groups, Namely Communication, accounted for over 2/3 of FDI
Banking, And Oil And Gas Exploration inflows in the country
INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
IMPORTANCE OF INDUSTRY IN PAKISTAN
Cement is one of major industries of Pakistan . Pakistan is rich in
cement raw material . The last few year have been a golden
period for cement manufacturers , when the government
increased spending on infrastructure development . During the
financial year 08 cement sales registered a growth of 31% to
17.53 million tons as against 13.5 million tones soled last year .
Exports stood at 3.7 million tons as against 1.8 million tons in
the last year , showing an increase of 110% .
Pakistan cement industry has a huge potential for export of
cement to neighbor countries like India , UAE , Afghanistan ,
Iraq and Russia
Industry achieved an overall growth of 32% with domestic demand
of cement increased by 24.95% where as exports increased by
111.86%
The overall growth achieved by cement factories for the year was
111.29% consisting of domestic and export markets at 71.02%
and 335.12% respectively
CONTRIBUTION IN ECONOMIC GROWTH
During the last three years the large scale manufacturing sector is showing signs of moderating along with a subsequent
slowing down of the economy and has registered a growth of 4.8% during the current fiscal year.
The main contribution to this growth of 4.8% in July-march 2007-08 over last year are pharmaceuticals (30.7%) , wood
products (21.9%) , engineering products (19.5%) food and beverages (11.1%) petroleum (6.03%) and chemicals
(3.1%) cotton yarn (3%) cotton cloth (4.8%) sugar (33.9%) and cement (17.9%)
20
18.22
16.36
15
13.66 CEMENT SALES
(MILLION TONS)
10 11.41
9.91
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
PROPORTION OF INDUSTRY
ASKARI
D G KHAN
LUCKY
MAPLELEAF
PIONEER
OTHER
EXCISE DUTY
In budget 2008-09 the federal excise duty on
cement has been to RS=900 per tons from the existing base of
RS=750 per tons
RATIOS OF DIFFERENT
INDUSTRIES
LUCKY FAUJI PIONEER D G KHAN
GROSS 29.35% 31.52% 10.2% 31.65%
PROFIT TO
SALES
OPERATING 24.49% 28.74% 8.3% 29.68%
PROFIT TO
SALES
PROFIT 21.495 22.76% 5.9% 27.34%
BEFORE TX
TO SALES
NET PROFIT 20.34% 18.66% 3.0% 25.27%
AFTER TAX
PROFIT RATIO
30
25 25.27
20 20.34
18.66
15
PROFIT RATIO
10
0 3.0
LUCKY FAUJI PIONEER D G KHAN
PROBLEMS TO THE INDUSTRY
Main component of cost is fuel . Pakistan cement industry has converted their
plants to coal to considering it to the cheapest fuel but its price in international
markets has gone up by more than 300% in the last one year which directly
relate increasing the cost of production
The burden of increased input costs has to be borne by the consumers . It is only
the government , which can provide relief to the consumers by cutting down or
abolishing the central excise duty
Unanticipated increase in interest rates or less than expected demand growth
create severe crises for the sector couple of year
Instead of appreciating the marketing skills of cement entrepreneurs to explore
new markets for cement , industry is being pressurized constantly without
realizing that reduction in cement exports will result in losses to industry
The freight charges are a massive 20% of the retail price . The plants located very
close to each other and tapping the same market will have to expand their
markets which will increase their freight expenses . It also increase competition
between these firms
Customer has no choice at all to switch between to brands of cement due to cartel
of cement manufacturers in Pakistan
D G KHAN AS COMPARED TO
INDUSTRY
DGKC posted growth of 113% in export sales in the outgoing fiscal year also
improving its market share in the export market to 14% from 10% earlier
Coal prices , a major cost driver for cement industry have seen a sharp fall
due to global economic slowdown , result in increase in efficiency of DGKC
DGKC have been looking out for operational upgrades to reduce its energy
cost . In this regard two projects are initiated out of which cement grinding
mill has already started commercial production . It is said to be the worlds
largest vertical cement grinding mill with a capacity of 5000 tons per day it
is expected to reduce energy consumption from 45% to 32-35%
Another plus point is the increase in the portfolio value . DGKC has equity
investment in MCB Bank (9%) NISHAT Mills (13%) ADAMJEE insurance
(3%). All of these have seen a significant price increase since the start of
year up 53% , 84% , 5% respectively. Current market value of DGKC
equity portfolio comes to RS 38 per share . Hence equity portfolio alone
provides tremendous value to the investor
Firm Analysis
COMPANY INFORMATION
DGKC , a unit of NISHAT group , is the largest cement manufacturing unit in
Pakistan with a production capacity of 5500 tons clinker per day. It is listed
on all stock exchange in Pakistan. DGKC was established under the
management control of state cement corporation of Pakistan (SCCP) in
1978 and start working in April 1986 with 2000 tons per day. Plant &
machinery was supplied by UBE industries of Japan.
NISHAT group acquire DGKC in 1992 under the privatization initiative of the
government. Group sets up a new cement production line of 6700 tons per
day clinker near KALARKAHAR, the single largest production line in the
country.
For continuous operations of the plant uninterrupted power supply is very
crucial company has its own power generation plant along with WAPDA
supply. The installed generation capacity is 23.84 MW.
DGKC production processes are environment friendly and comply with
WORLD’S BANK environmental standards. It has been certified for
environment management system “ISO 14001” by quality assurance
services Australia. The company also has certificate of ISO 9002 (Quality
Management System) in 1988 , so the only cement factory of Pakistan
having ISO 14001 & ISO 9002 both.
VISION
To transform the company into modern and dynamic
cement manufacturing company with qualified
professionals and fully equipped to play a meaningful
role on sustainable basis in the economy of Pakistan.
MISSION STATEMENT
To provide quality products to customers and explore
new markets to promote sales of the company through
good governance and foster a sound and dynamic
team, so as to achieve optimum prices of products of
the company for sustainable and equitable growth and
prosperity of the company
BOARD OF DIRECTORS
MRS NAZ MANSHA CHIARPERSON / DIRECTOR
Assets
Non current assets 29435449 33835927 32529377 24394481
Liquidity position
Liquidity position of company deteriorated
during the financial year 2009 due to decrease in current assets
and increase in current liabilities. Current liabilities of company
increase due to increase in trade payable, accrued markup and
short term borrowing. Current assets decline due to decline in
investments, cash and bank balance. Thus increase in current
liabilities and decrease in current assets result in a less
favorable liquidity position as compared to 2008.
FIRM ANALYSIS
Activity ratios 2009 2008 2007 2006
Account receivable 10.40 days 8.89 days 6.20 days 3.45 days
turnover in days
inventory turnover 13.73 times 13.19 times 16.83 times 24.40 times
inventory turnover in 26.58 days 27.66 days 21.69 days 14.96 days
days
Operating cycle 36.98 days 36.55 days 27.89 days 18.41 days
FIRM ANALYSIS
40
35
30
25
AR turnover in days
20 IN turnover in days
Operating cycle
15
10
0
2006 2007 2008 2009
FIRM ANALYSIS
Account receivable turnover of company is decreasing which
results in increase in account receivable in days which
indicates that company is going to be less efficient in collecting
its receivable , one factor can be due to increase in sales
Whereas company has shown efficiency in inventory
management because inventory turnover is increased and
thus inventory turnover in days has decreased
Overall operating cycle of company had increased because of
increase in account receivable turnover in days
FIRM ANALYSIS
Debt 2009 2008 2007 2006
ratios(%)
Debt to 89% 76% 53% 78%
equity
Debt ratio 47% 43% 34% 44%
During financial year 08 the debt ratios of company rose because
the total debt increased in 08 mainly due to 63% increase in
the current liabilities which forms 55% of total debt. During
year 2009 the debt ratio again increase because of increase in
current liabilities and a major decrease in capital and reserve
from $30528440 to $20918442.
FIRM ANALYSIS
Profitability 2009 2008 2007 2006
ratios(%)