ASEAN Role in

Myanmar
By: David Raja Marpaung S.Ip M.Def

David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture University of Indonesia, also Indon

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INTRODUCTION
 BACKGROUND
◦ Burma has the largest number of armed ethnic insurgencies among ASEAN’s
countries
◦ Independence on 4 January 1948
◦ In 1988, unrest over economic mismanagement and political oppression by the
government led to widespread pro-democracy demonstrations throughout
the country known as the 8888 Uprising.
◦ Security forces killed thousands of demonstrators, and General Saw Maung
staged a coup d'état and formed the State Law and Order Restoration Council
(SLORC). In 1989, SLORC declared martial law after widespread protests.
◦ May 1990, first free elections. The National League for Democracy (NLD), the
party of Aung San Suu Kyi, won 392 out of a total 489 seats, but the election
results were canceled by SLORC, which refused to step down.
◦ Led by Than Shwe since 1992, the military regime has made cease-fire
agreements with most ethnic guerilla groups.
◦ In 1992, SLORC unveiled plans to create a new constitution through the National
Convention, which began 9 January 1993.
◦ In 1997, the State Law and Order Restoration Council was renamed the State
Peace and Development Council (SPDC).
◦ On 23 June 1997, Myanmar was admitted into the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN)

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Problems
 What are the ASEAN’s roles in implementing
the political stability in Myanmar?
 What are the obstacles for the ASEAN to
solve the problem in Myanmar?

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PESTEL
Analysis

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Myanmar PESTEL Condition
 Politic & Legal Dimension
◦ Military junta (1962-now),
with full of coercion and no
democracy
◦ Anti-subversive and internal
security constitution to
destruct democratization
process
◦ Detainment pro-democracy
activists, civil societies,
and opposition elements
(monks)
◦ Criticized and pressed by
Western countries
◦ Close relationship with India,
China, and Russia (in 2007,
the SC draft resolution
about human rights
violation was vetoed by
Russia and China)
◦ Extremely corrupt state
◦ 2008 constitution
referendum promised
Democracy 2010 Election
David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture University of Indonesia, also Indon
 Economy Dimension
◦ Myanmar was the
wealthiest country in
Southeast Asia (until
1960s)
◦ Under junta regime,
average rate of annual
GDP growth only 2,9%,
GDP per capita USD 233
and inflation rate reach
30-60%
◦ Western countries banned
investment and trading
◦ Foreign investment mostly
from China, Singapore,
South Korea, India, and
Thailand
◦ Lack of infrastructures
◦ World’s 2nd largest
producer of opium, and
gaining national income
through illegal drugs
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Myanmar PESTEL
Condition…
 Social Dimension
◦ 55 million population (±
300,000 refugees)
◦ ± 135 ethnic groups, ± 108
languages
◦ 68% of population Bamar
ethnic and Buddhist as
the major religion
◦ Human Development Index
0,583
◦ Minority ethnic and
religious persecution
◦ Human rights violation (UN
report)
◦ The international
humanitarian assistances
restrictions.
◦ ± 146 higher education
institutions
David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture University of Indonesia, also Indon
 Technology Dimension
◦ Low economy growth, low
technology
◦ Weapons imported from
Russia, Ukraine, China and
India
◦ Technological investment from
India (oil and gas
exploration, IT, hydropower,
and construction of ports
and buildings)
◦ Nuclear reactor research
(Russia assistance)
◦
 Environmental Dimension
◦ Cyclone Nargis disaster in May
2008 was used by the
regime to performed
referendum (as barter of the
humanitarian aid) to support
government’s constitution
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THE ACTORS

UNINVOLVED
PARTIES
USA, EU,
Non Polit ics and Hum an Right Inst it ut ion

Unit ed Nat ions

Nat ional and Int ernat ional NGO
East Asia Neighbourhood
Media

Myanm ar governm ent

ASEAN
Myanm ar People

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ASEAN & Myanmar
 Negative responses because the military junta and human
rights violations issue.
 The ASEAN way and non interference principal become a
priority for Myanmar
 ASEAN has been obliged for years of its regional and
international implications regarding Myanmar’s Junta refusal
of peaceful democratic transition and Junta’s human
violations
 The traditional respect for the principle of non-interference
 Myanmar’s problem through Summit Diplomacy and
consensus building is not enough realizing that
Myanmar itself refused to discuss its problems with
ASEAN
 the collective actions are hard to be done since there’s still lack
of common vision in the members itself
 ASEAN should move beyond its traditional non-intervention
policy
 lack of commitment from the members regarding concern on
human rights issue and democracy

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ASEAN & Myanmar
 ASEAN as FORUM: role as an arena / forum
to discuss the problem in Myanmar.
 ASEAN as INSTRUMENT: Myanmar can use
the ASEAN’s basic principle, non-
interference principle, to avoid ASEAN’s
participation

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Regionalism in Southeast
Asia
 ASEAN = interstate grouping basis on region (southeast
asia)
 Constructivism  the formation of collective identities
shared principles, values and traditions, and related to
ASEAN case
 The ASEAN Way as the norms of ASEAN has become the
core values of ASEAN political behavior
 This non conferential strategy as mentioned before
proved that ASEAN is consistent with its shared
principles, values and traditions, as the same with
constructivist way
 the subsequent debate over ASEAN’s collective identity
is the principle of non interference
 The constructive approach through the ASEAN way failed
to produce political stability in Myanmar
 ASEAN expectations to induce gradual political change in
Burma through ‘peer group pressure’ did not
materialize.
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Stakeholders Analysis

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Transformation for the
Stakeholders

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Interest Analysis

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Needs Analysis

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 Benefits Management
Evaluation Measures* Military Politic and Socio- Economy
Approach Legal Cultural

Build Democracy and good governance

Impact of Disbenefits
Redesign vision also concept of military
position and function in government

Impact of Disbenefits
Strengthening Regional and International
Diplomacy role in Myanmar
Impact of Disbenefits
Strengthening the social society

Impact of Disbenefits

Legend Disbenefit
High   High  
Medium   Medium  
Low   Low  
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Conclusion
 ASEAN just plays in normative role in Burma
 The Obstacles: non interference, ASEAN Way
 Myanmar gets a lot of advantage by joining
ASEAN. On the other side, ASEAN gets a lot
of problem with Myanmar to enhance the
regional stability

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