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Demand
Management

Sense and shape demand for revenue growth

Your name
Your title
Your organization

Safe Harbor Statement

The following is intended to outline our general

product direction. It is intended for information
purposes only, and may not be incorporated into any
contract. It is not a commitment to deliver any
material, code, or functionality, and should not be
relied upon in making purchasing decisions.
The development, release, and timing of any
features or functionality described for Oracles
products remains at the sole discretion of Oracle.

Realities of the new business environment

Companies
Require
Continuous
Change and
Innovation
3

Todays value chains need new planning approaches

Planning strategies that our customers focus on today
DEMAND VOLATILITY
and UNCERTAINTY

SENSE DEMAND MORE QUICKLY

and SHAPE FOR REV GROWTH

LACK OF RESPONSIVENESS
TO SUDDEN PROBLEMS

IMPROVE AGILITY and QUICKLY

RESPOND TO EVENTS

SUPPLY CHAIN
COMPLEXITY and RISK

INCORPORATE RISK
and POSTPONEMENT STRATEGIES
into your S&OP PROCESS

BUSINESS INSIGHT and

CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT

CONTINUOUSLY MONITOR
VALUE CHAIN PERFORMANCE

Realities of the new business environment

Traditional forecasting systems (Excel) dont work anymore
REALITY CHECK
Forecasting requires integration
of key data sources
Modeling unique relationships in
the data is more important
Everyone needs to talk about the
same set of numbers
consensus demand management
Forecasting needs to drive
downstream processes make it
actionable

70% cannot forecast beyond 1 quarter

Traditional Approach Disconnected

High latency, limited collaboration, no consensus forecasting
Your Company
Financial
Planning

Production
Planning

New Product
Planning

Manual processes
Multiple data sources

Sales
Quotas

Marketing
Forecasting

Measurement
and Reporting

Multiple,
non-integrated
systems

Low forecast accuracy

Departmental orientation to demand forecasting
Misalignment between metrics and objectives
Not tied to Sales and Operations Planning process

Better Approach
Real-time demand sensing and collaborative consensus forecasting
Eliminate decision making latency by focusing
on excellence in demand visibility

Sense demand more frequently and closer to the point of consumption

Replace spreadsheets with one number demand management Collaborate with all constituents

Improve your forecast accuracy

Use advanced analytics and statistics

Shape demand

Promotion excellence and decomposition

Leverage granular demand signals (customer, channel, store, shelf)

Identify and simulate cross selling opportunities

Evolve to real-time S&OP

Profitable demand response

Identify supply side opportunities
Define and monitor customer based metrics
Get real time visibility to sales tactics (price breaks, promotions, deals)

Better Approach Significant Benefits

Demand Driven leaders have:

15% less inventory
17% stronger order fulfillment
35% shorter cash-to-cash cycle
times
Which translates to:
60% better profit margins
65% better EPS
2-3x the ROA

Improved Demand
Management is the first
important step !

Source: AMR Benchmark Analytix

Value Chain Planning

Solution

Oracle Value Chain Planning solution

Complete Modular Integrated Open

Service
Parts
Planning

Demand Signal
Management

Global Order
Promising

Production
Scheduling

Planning
Analytics

Demand
Management and
Advanced
Forecasting

Network Design,
Risk Management,
and Postponement

Sales and
Operations
Planning
Collaborative
Planning and VMI

Trade Promotion
Planning and
Optimization
Supply and Distribution
Planning and Event-driven
Simulation

Single source of truth

Integrated with ERP
Web services enabled

10

Oracle Value Chain Planning solution

Modular Crawl, walk, run: start with your most important problem first
FORECAST TO PLAN
Planning
Analytics
Trade
Management
Demand
Signal
Management

Sales and
Operations
Planning
Demand
Management

Production
Scheduling
Risk
Management
and Network
Design

COLL

Supply and
Distribution
Planning
Service
Parts
Planning

Event-driven
Simulation
Global Order
Promising

Inventory
Postponement

RDBMS

Collaboration
and VMI

SOA

SECURITY

MIDDLE
WARE

MIOBIEE
OBIEE

WFL

Common
Planning
Server

11

Oracle Value Chain Planning solution

Complete Best in class products supporting best in class processes
SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING

COMPREHENSIVE TRADE MANAGEMENT

STRATEGIC PLANNING and RISK MGMT

INTEGRATED PLANNING and EXECUTION

12

Demand Management The Oracle difference

Sense demand more quickly
COLLECT the RIGHT
LEVEL OF DETAIL

Align data from multiple sources, closer to the point of

consumption
Leverage pre-built integrations
Leverage extensible model for new business requirements

MODEL UNIQUE DATA

RELATIONSHIPS

Capture behavior in your data look for influencing factors

Handle exceptions incomplete data, volume shifts, short
term vs long term trends, outliers, cause and effect issues
Leverage advanced statistics to determine forecast error

CONSENSUS DEMAND
MANAGEMENT

MAKE FORECAST
ACTIONABLE

Involve all stakeholders Move from periodic to

continuous
Hold everyone accountable Audit and measure
exceptions
Keep track of consensus decisions and changes Waterfall
and formal approval processes supported by KPIs
analysis
Drive short to mid term forecast into operations planning
Drive longer term forecast into Financial planning process
Drive postponement and risk management decisions
Provide insight to your trading partners

13

Sense demand at the

right level of detail

Capture behavior in the

data and improve
forecast

3
4

Drive to consensus
Evolve to best in class

14

Sense demand more quickly

Collect the right level of detail The difference is in the details
Sense demand real-time, at more
granular level, and closer to the point of
consumption

Product Group
Item
Item
Customer
Ship To A
Ship To B
Demand history
Promotion lift
Seasonality
Cannibalization
Causal factors

Time Period 1
Time Period N

Support different demand data for each customer

and channel
Use multiple units of measure and multiple
currencies
Collect information from multiple source instances

Aggregate forecasts are convenient but

not always better
You sell to businesses, stores, and people
You ship products and not product categories

Forecast predictions should adjust for

and reflect differences in local, regional,
SKU, time period, customer and so on

15

Capture detailed demand patterns

Involve all constituents and forecast closer to the point of consumption
US

JAPAN
11/18 5pm:
New photo
PRODUCT FORECAST
printer sales at
CHANNEL FORECAST -25% of estimate,
request TV add

REGION EAST FCST

STORE FORECAST

REGION WEST FCST

11/20 12pm:
New camera
sales at 150%
of estimate

REGION SOUTH FCST

Region South Sales

Forecast QTY Change

HQ

Tokyo Store 1
Forecast Change (YEN)

MANUFACTURING FCST
MARKETING FCST
SALES FCST

11/20 2pm:
Budget
approval for
global TV add

TV add camera +
printer promotion
airs 12/21 8pm

ALERT: Problem in
US Region East

Consensus Forecast

Demand
changes Fox
get detected
real-time
andupdates
are instantly
reflected to
20th Century
processes
real time
from 15,000+
all constituents
stores dailyand exceptions are triggered automatically

16

The difference is in the details

Forecast complex configure to order products

Forecast both the product (model)

and the options
Forecast for dependent and
independent demand
Manage the attach rates or planning
percentages
Accurately reflect the total revenue
value based on expected product
and option mix

17

Quickly identify and react to demand changes

Task and exception driven response

Adapt quickly to new demand signals

Incremental forecasting

Tailor planning processes to resemble

unique company business
requirements

Easy-to-use drag and drop interface

User definable performance indicators

Task and exception driven user

dashboards

Queue for workflow and manually generated tasks

Alerts and actions can be triggered by people, the
systems, or the analytic engines

Automated escalation ensures

response

18

Sense demand at the

right level of detail

Capture behavior in the

data and improve
forecast

3
4

Drive to consensus
Evolve to best in class

19

Improve your baseline forecast accuracy

Capture inherent behavior in your data Model unique data relationships
Look for influencing factors
Holidays, payment cycle, ordering cycle, econometric
influences, price changes, influences between products,
weather

Manage exceptions
Not enough data, data volume shifts, short-term and longterm trends, outliers, alignment of cause and effect
influence

Leverage built-in intelligence

Automatically select which levels data to use for
forecasting
Automatically select the blend of forecast methods that
yield the most accurate forecast (PhD in a box)
Engine supports all statistical models - Complexity is
hidden for casual users but can be fine-tuned by
statisticians
Use key accuracy metrics (MPE, MAPE, Weighted MAPE)

20

Best in class statistical forecasting

Designed for planners, not programmers (PhD in a box)
Self-Tuning Forecasting Engine
Historical data

Bayesian
Estimator

Bayesian
combined model

Multiple causal
factors

Forecast

Estimators models

Bayesian mix modeling superior to best fit

15 model library

Auto-regressive moving average (ARMA)

Regression integrated winters
Logistic and logarithmic models
Ridge regression, Markov chain regression
Intermittent regression

Unlimited causal factors

Seasonality, weather, market indicators

Base + price + multi-event lift decomposition

Promotion effects

Cross-product and cross-location effects

Pre and post event

Automatic outlier detection

Trend long, short, dampening
Missing data interpolation
Shape modeling and auto-correction
Regime change
Fit and forecast validation

21

Unlimited causal factors

Leverage Advanced Forecasting and Demand Modeling option
Historical
data

Multiple
causal
factors

Mixed models used in same time series adjust

for multiple causal factors including seasonality,
market trends, and promotions

Bayesian
Estimator
Bayesian
Optimizer

Forecast
Combined
model

Each model contributes different forecast

characteristic to the overall model
Automatic model selection provides improved
accuracy of best fit approaches

Promotion Events
Seasonality
Causal
Analysis

Outlier Detection

Forecast trees automatically find level with

statistically relevant data

Trend

Cyclical Patterns

One forecast based on multiple models instead of only

using best-fit model
Self-tuning engine

Forecasts stored at lowest level

Proportion rules applied when necessary

Can incorporate external information such as

weather, market drivers, forward indicators, and
competitive data

22

Measure forecast accuracy at all levels

Built-in accuracy metrics

MAPE Mean Absolute

Percent Error

MPE - Forecast Bias

WMAPE Weighted MAPE by

revenue, cost, and so on
23

Sense demand at the

right level of detail

Capture behavior in the

data and improve
forecast

3
4

Drive to consensus
Evolve to best in class

25

Drive to consensus
Everyone uses the same number Consensus demand management
Sales: Plan by Product Line

Marketing: Plan by Region

Sales Reps

Asia

Americas

Sales

Create consensus plan through

continuous collaboration across sales,
marketing, finance, supply chain and
customers
Each participant gets tailored view

Mgrs
Marketing
Forecast

Sales
Forecast

Manufacturing
Forecast

Consensus
Forecast

Customer
Forecast

Mgrs
Manufacturing: Plan by Plant

Combine top down business planning

with precise bottom up forecasts
Automate process with workflow

Plant
Customers: Unit Forecast

Configurable worksheets, data tailored to role

Enable stakeholders to validate their input and
visualize its meaning
Preserve everyone's inputs, discussions, and
assumptions
Measure accuracy of individual inputs via waterfall
analysis

Manage final approval process and exceptions

Close the loop and track accuracy of forecast
decisions, and review

26

Improve Demand Planner productivity

Configurable user interface replaces need for individual spreadsheets
while ensuring enterprise database access and security
Task oriented dashboards
Excel like worksheets

Context sensitive
User configurable workspaces
Copy and paste multiple cells and rows
Create new worksheets based on 20 seeded ones (Historical forecast
performance, Forecast accuracy, Top and bottom 5 customers year to
date, Revenue analysis, and more)
Shared and private worksheets
View in any unit or currency

View data at multiple levels in hierarchy of choice

Simultaneous update and view multiple worksheets
and perform side-by-side comparisons
Color coding based on exceptions
Flexible formulaic expressions
Online notes with audit trail
Off-line mode with automatic sync and MS Excel
integration

27

Task oriented dashboards

Integrated,
configurable KPIs

Personalized
worksheets
Real-time alerts,
exceptions and
workflow
messages

28

Excel like worksheets

Work on multiple
worksheets at
various levels at
the same time

Integrated,
configurable graphs
Color coded cells
to focus planners
attention on key
issues

29

Flexible hierarchies
Support planning the way your business works
Unlimited hierarchies to model all
planning data:

Marketing

Products and product families

Plants and distribution networks
Customer ship-locations including DCs and stores
Sales territories and customer account relationships
Promotion and marketing programs
Attributes and characteristics

New levels can be added on the fly

Edit and view data at multiple levels in
hierarchy of choice

Use lower level data for higher level forecasting

Use higher level data for lower level forecasting

Intelligent data management ensures

incomplete data is detected

Sales Rep

Planning automatically done at next level when statistically

relevant data is not available

30

Comprehensive audit trail

Accountability throughout the entire organization
Online Notes and Audit
Trail with digital signature

31

Sense demand at the

right level of detail

Capture behavior in the

data and improve
forecast

3
4

Drive to consensus
Evolve to best in class

33

Going beyond consensus The Oracle difference

Demand Signal
Management

Demand Shaping
- Promotions

Demand
sensing

Collaborative
Forecasting

Demand Shaping
- New product
introductions

34

Demand signal management

Leverage demand insights to drive growth Demand Signal Repository
Retail Store Data

POS sales
Price
Store inventory
Promotional plans
Store replen. rules
Store forecasts

Retail DC/
Distributor Data
DC shipments
DC inventory
DC replen. rules

Other
External Data
Retail loyalty
IRI/AC Nielsen
3rd party demographic
Causal (weather,etc.)
RFID/EPC
IMS, NDC, EDI (867,
852), Scripts, Pedigree
Unstructured text

More timely data to better sense, shape and respond to demand

Reduced manual effort and cost
Consistent data more easily leveraged across teams and applications

35

Demand signal management

Business benefits
Differentiate
products
and services

Understand regional and demographic preferences

Distinguish traits that drive demand

Improve product
introductions and
promotions

Monitor and respond to compliance issues

Analyze shopper behavior through daily, store-level
sell-through

Reduce lost
sales from retail
out-of-stocks

Identify out-of-stocks from store sales data

Intervene to address systematic stocking problems

Reduce
IT complexity
and costs

Consolidate isolated retail/distributor data marts

Manage and secure retail/distributor data as an
enterprise resource

36

Demand shaping
Understand the financial and operational impacts of sales incentives
Shape demand via promotions
planning
Understand the true impact of promotions and
marketing instruments
Simulate volume and profitability of future
promotions and optimize promotional events
Perform what-if analysis to understand the
impact of varying promotional tactics
Implement profitable sales and marketing
strategies that are feasible to execute

Manage new product introductions

to maximize revenue
Evaluate cannibalization of existing products
on revenue and inventory goals
Determine optimal timing of product launches
and align them to financial goals
Determine price breaks and promotions that
can be leveraged for sell-off or ramp-up

38

Collaborate with key trading partners

Improve demand insights through collaborative forecasting

Partner
Inputs:
XML,EDI or
Manual

Partner
Forecast
Metrics

Improve demand visibility with

customer collaboration
Tailor worksheets to specific
customer needs
Worksheet can be attached to a
task
Direct alerts via application or email
Automate internal notification on
customer input
Field-level security tied to customer
access privileges

44

Evolve to a best in class S&OP process

Analysts simulate, executive review, planners enforce decisions
Adv. Pln. Command Center
for key executives

Involve key executives directly in the

S&OP process
Pre-built analysis views for Finance,
Executive, Demand and Supply review
Optionally, define alerts for exceptions

Simulate impacts of constrained forecast changes

Compare consensus forecast with constrained forecast
View supply information at all levels of aggregation
Evaluate the allocation of constrained supply to demand
Examine throughput on the most critically constrained resources

Enforce allocation decisions

Other VCP Apps
o Supply planning
for planners
o Order promising
Make allocation decisions while trading off service levels and cost
Balance needs of many customers in different channels

RTS&OP
for analysts

45

Sales and Operations Planning The Oracle difference

SUPPORT A COMPLETE
S&OP PROCESS
INTERACTIVELY
ENGAGE
MANAGEMENT

Pre-built S&OP analysis work sheets

Workflow driven process automation, exception
management, and approvals
Real-time, iterative and proactive process
Pre-built performance management S&OP dashboard
Dashboard pages for demand review, supply review,
financial review, and executive review
Managers assign task to planners to analyze

EVALUATE ALTERNATE
BUSINESS SCENARIOS

Automatically translate detailed planning information to

corporate metrics
Analyze demand, supply, capacity, and finance, metrics
Compare current to previous, baseline to alternate

DRIVE DECISIONS INTO

EXECUTION

Enforce allocation decision when promising supply

Drive daily tactical planning processes based on S&OP
plan
Monitor tactical planning processes

46

Customers

47

Many customers across all industries

Discrete
Manufacturing

Process
Manufacturing

Consumer
Goods /
Distribution

High Tech

48

What Our Customers Say

Dramatic increase in forecast accuracy
Six months after implementing Demantra we have seen a dramatic increase in
forecast accuracy. This resulted in an immediate 20% inventory reduction.
Wendy Malloy, Inventory Planning Manager, Wilton Industries

45% increase in accuracy in 6 weeks

From an isolated process to a full Demantra solution - within six weeks of going live
our A-items improved 45% in accuracy. Today we load daily bookings against the
forecasted plan and feed production management to align back-end production
based on the true feed of real-time demand.
Sagi Srinivas, Director, Supply Chain Systems , BiosenseWebster
Inventory turns doubled while improving fill rate to 95%
From 3 inventory turns with on time performance of 55% and lead time of 140 days to
6 turns and order fill rates exceeding 95%. The company reduced retail compliance
fines by 85% and logistics costs by 65%.
Nick Delany, SVP, Sales & Supply Chain, VTech

49

DeRoyal Industries
Live on Demand Management
Company
Leading manufacturer of medical devices
Manufactures more than 25,000 SKUs and operating from 25 plants and office
around the world$1 billion in revenues, operating worldwide

Planning problem solved

Aligned customer demand with supply chain planning

Unique aspects of implementation

Integrated with JD Edwards ERP
Supports the companies many new product introductions with improved
forecast accuracy

Increased forecast accuracy by 5-10%

Increased customer service levels
Reduced inventory by 8%
Enabled a comprehensive S&OP process

50

Welchs
Live on Demand Management, Trade Management
Company
Leading producer of juices and jams

Planning problem solved

Promotion planning synchronized with demand planning

Unique aspects of implementation

Sales reps drive forecasting process from trade promotion planning process
What-if scenario planning enables sales reps to test promotion before selecting
it

Increased forecast accuracy at SKU level

Enables trade promotion planning to be integrated with RT S&OP
Reduced supply chain costs
Improved HQ and sales planning productivity

51

VTech
Live on Demand Management, Real-Time S&OP
Company
$1 billion in revenues, operating worldwide
Manufacturing plants in China
Leading provider of cordless phones and electronic childrens toys

Planning problem solved

Real-time S&OP process driven by one demand number

Unique aspects of implementation

Generates forecasts from customer POS data
Compares customer and generated forecasts and routes exceptions to planner,
sales representative, or customer

Increased order fill rate from 55% to 95%

Increased inventory turns by 100%
Reduced price protection claims by 40%
Reduced logistics costs by 65%

52

Architecture

54

Oracle Value Chain Planning architecture

Leverage extensible and secure architecture for additional cost savings

Wiki
Forums

Workspaces
Work list

Web Center
Portal

Personalized
Dashboards

OBIEE

Scenarios
Planner
Workbenches
BPEL

Scenario
Orchestration

PLANNING INSTANCE

ODI

Collections
& ODI PIPs

Operational Data
(ODS)

Planning Data (PDS)

Archive

Analytical Meta
Data Layer (RPD)

CANONICAL DATA MODEL

Source ERPs

55

Achieve incremental value

Implement additional VCP products quickly, leveraging same foundation
Value Chain Planning
Analytics

Advanced Planning
Command Center

Demand Signal
Management

EPM1

Real-Time Sales and

Operations Planning

Predictive Trade
Planning and Opt.

Strategic Network
Optimization

Demand
Management and
Advanced
Forecasting

Deductions and
Settlement mgmt.
Promotional
Promotional
Forecast
Forecast

Trade

Front and Back Office

Demand

Inventory
Optimization

Production
Scheduling

Advanced Supply
Chain Planning
Rapid
Planning

Forecast
Forecast

Constrained
Supply

Collaborative
Planning

Service Parts
Planning

Supply

CRM

Global Order
Promising

ERP

PLM

Execute

OTM

57

Summary

59

Oracle Demantra Demand Management

Real-time demand sensing and collaborative consensus forecasting
COLLECT the RIGHT
LEVEL OF DETAIL

Align data from multiple sources, closer to the point of

consumption
Leverage pre-built integrations
Leverage extensible model for new business requirements

MODEL UNIQUE DATA

RELATIONSHIPS

Capture behavior in your data look for influencing factors

Handle exceptions incomplete data, volume shifts, short
term vs long term trends, outliers, cause and effect issues
Leverage advanced statistics to determine forecast error

CONSENSUS DEMAND
MANAGEMENT

MAKE FORECAST
ACTIONABLE

Involve all stakeholders Move from periodic to

continuous
Hold everyone accountable Audit and measure
exceptions
Keep track of consensus decisions and changes Waterfall
and formal approval processes supported by KPIs
analysis
Drive short to mid term forecast into operations planning
Drive longer term forecast into Financial planning process
Drive postponement and risk management decisions
Provide insight to your trading partners

60

Oracle Demantra Demand Management

Evolve at your own pace to a best-in-class solution
Forecast based on attributes and
product characteristics

Start
anywhere

Compute promotional lifts and

analyze impact of demand drivers
Assumption based forecasting
Leverage POS and channel data
Forecast new product
introductions
Collaborate with customers
Use advanced statistics and
causal factors
Complex alerts and custom
worksheets

Eliminate
spreadsheets

Manage rolling forecasts

Collaborate with all constituents
on one number
Use basic statistics, alerts, and
seeded worksheets
Tailor worksheets for individual
users

From less complex to best in class

61

Key takeaways

Oracle Demantra Demand Management enables you to:

Sense demand more quickly and at the right level of
detail
Improve forecast accuracy
Achieve a consensus demand management process
Shape demand with promotions management and new
product introductions
Improve visibility through forecast collaboration

62

Questions
and

Answers

63

64