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LEARNING GOAL

Be able to define correlation, recognize positive and

negative correlations on scatter diagrams

Be aware of important cautions concerning the

interpretation of correlations

Become familiar with the concept of a best-fit line for a

correlation, recognize when such lines have predictive

value and when they may not

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

Definition

A correlation exists between two variables when

higher values of one variable consistently go with

higher values of another variable or when higher

values of one variable consistently go with lower

values of another variable.

Slide 7.1- 2

amount of smoking and likelihood of lung

cancer; that is heavier smokers are more

likely to get lung cancer.

There is a correlation between the variables

height and weight for people; that is, taller

people tend to weigh more than shorter

people.

Slide 7.1- 3

demand for apples and price of apples; that

is, demand tends to decrease as price

increases.

There is a correlation between practice time

and skill among piano players; that is, those

who practice more tend to be more skilled.

Slide 7.1- 4

Scatter Diagrams

Definition

A scatter diagram (or scatterplot) is a graph in

which each point represents the values of two

variables.

Slide 7.1- 5

Slide 7.1- 6

make the scatter diagram in Figure 7.1.

1. We assign one variable to

each axis and label the axis

with values that comfortably

fit all the data.

Sometimes the axis selection

is arbitrary, but if we suspect

that one variable depends on

Figure 7.1

the other then we plot the

explanatory variable on the horizontal axis and the response

variable on the vertical axis.

In this case, we expect the diamond price to depend at least in part

on its weight; we therefore say that weight is the explanatory

variable (because it helps explain the price) and price is the

response variable (because it responds to changes in the

explanatory variable).

Slide 7.1- 7

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

make the scatter diagram in Figure 7.1.

1. (cont.) We choose a range

of 0 to 2.5 carats for the

weight axis and $0 to

$16,000 for the price axis.

2. For each diamond in Table

7.1, we plot a single point

at the horizontal position

Figure 7.1

corresponding to its weight

and the vertical position corresponding to its price.

For example, the point for Diamond 10 goes at a position of 1.11

carats on the horizontal axis and $3,670 on the vertical axis. The

dashed lines on Figure 7.1 show how we locate this point.

3. (Optional) We can label some (or all) of the data points, as is

done for Diamonds 10, 16, and 19 in Figure 7.1.

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 7.1- 8

Using the data in Table 7.1 (slide 6), create a scatter diagram

to look for a correlation between a diamonds color and price.

Comment on the correlation.

Solution: We expect price to

depend on color, so we plot the

explanatory variable color on

the horizontal axis and the

response variable price on the

vertical axis in Figure 7.2.

(You should check a few of

the points against the data in Table 7.1.)

Figure 7.2

Nevertheless, you may notice a weak trend diagonally downward from the upper left toward the lower right.

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 7.1- 9

Using the data in Table 7.1 (slide 6), create a scatter diagram

to look for a correlation between a diamonds color and price.

Comment on the correlation.

Solution: (cont.)

This trend represents a weak

correlation in which diamonds

with more yellow color (higher

numbers for color) are less

expensive.

This trend is consistent with

Figure 7.2

what we would expect, because

colorless diamonds appear to sparkle more and are generally

considered more desirable.

Slide 7.1- 10

Types of Correlation

(Note: detailed descriptions of these graphs appear in the next few slides.)

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 7.1- 11

in which the values of y tend to increase with increasing

values of x. The correlation becomes stronger as we

proceed from a to c. In fact, c shows a perfect positive

correlation, in which all the points fall along a straight

line.

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 7.1- 12

in which the values of y tend to decrease with

increasing values of x. The correlation becomes

stronger as we proceed from d to f. In fact, f shows a

perfect negative correlation, in which all the points fall

along a straight line.

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 7.1- 13

and y. In other words, values of x do not appear to be

linked to values of y in any way.

Slide 7.1- 14

which x and y appear to be related but the relationship

does not correspond to a straight line. (Linear means

along a straight line, and nonlinear means not along a

straight line.)

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 7.1- 15

Types of Correlation

Positive correlation: Both variables tend to increase (or

decrease) together.

Negative correlation: The two variables tend to change

in opposite directions, with one increasing while the other

decreases.

No correlation: There is no apparent (linear) relationship

between the two variables.

Nonlinear relationship: The two variables are related,

but the relationship results in a scatter diagram that does

not follow a straight-line pattern.

Slide 7.1- 16

Correlation

Statisticians measure the strength of a

correlation with a number called the

correlation coefficient, represented by

the letter r.

Slide 7.1- 17

The correlation coefficient, r, is a measure of the

strength of a correlation. Its value can range only from

-1 to 1.

If there is no correlation, the points do not follow any

ascending or descending straightline pattern, and the

value of r is close to 0.

If there is a positive correlation, the correlation

coefficient is positive (0 < r 1): Both variables increase

together. A perfect positive correlation (in which all the

points on a scatter diagram lie on an ascending straight

line) has a correlation coefficient r = 1. Values of r close

to 1 mean a strong positive correlation and positive

values closer to 0 mean a weak positive correlation.

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 7.1- 18

(cont,)

If there is a negative correlation, the correlation

coefficient is negative (-1 r < 0): When one variable

increases, the other decreases. A perfect negative

correlation (in which all the points lie on a descending

straight line) has a correlation coefficient r = -1. Values

of r close to -1 mean a strong negative correlation and

negative values closer to 0 mean a weak negative

correlation.

Slide 7.1- 19

Figure 7.5 shows a scatter diagram

for the variables number of farms

and mean farm size in the United

States.

Each dot represents data from

a single year between 1950 and

2000; on this diagram, the earlier

years generally are on the right and

the later years on the left.

farm size data. Source: U.S.

Department of Agriculture.

to those in Figure 7.3 (slide 13) and discuss the underlying

reasons for the correlation.

Slide 7.1- 20

Solution: The scatter diagram shows

a strong negative correlation that

most closely resembles the scatter

diagram in Figure 7.3f, suggesting a

correlation coefficient around r = -0.9.

The correlation shows that as the

number of farms decreases, the size

of the remaining farms increases.

farm size data. Source: U.S.

Department of Agriculture.

the nature of farming: Prior to 1950, most farms were small

family farms. Over time, these small farms have been replaced

by large farms owned by agribusiness corporations.

Slide 7.1- 21

price and weight data in Table 7.1.

color and price data in Table 7.1.

Slide 7.1- 22

The formula for the (linear) correlation coefficient r can be

expressed in several different ways that are all algebraically

equivalent, which means that they produce the same value. The

following expression has the advantage of relating more

directly to the underlying rationale for r :

Slide 7.1- 23

simplifying calculations, so it is often used whenever manual

calculations are necessary. The following formula is also easy

to program into statistical software or calculators:

values into the formula. Be sure to note that (x2) and (x)2 are

not equal: (x2) tells you to first square all the values of the

variable x and then add them; (x)2 tells you to add the x values

first and then square this sum. In other words, perform the

operation within the parentheses first. Similarly, (y2) and

(y)2 are not the same.

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 7.1- 24

Beware of Outliers

If you calculate

the correlation coefficient

for these data, youll find

that it is a relatively high

r = 0.880, suggesting a

very strong correlation.

Figure 7.10

However, if you cover the data point in the upper right corner of

Figure 7.10, the apparent correlation disappears.

In fact, without this data point, the correlation coefficient is r = 0.

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 7.2- 25

Youve conducted a study to determine how the number of

calories a person consumes in a day correlates with time spent

in vigorous bicycling. Your sample consisted of ten women

cyclists, all of approximately the same height and weight. Over

a period of two weeks, you asked each woman to record the

amount of time she spent cycling each day and what she ate on

each of those days. You used the eating records to calculate the

calories consumed each day.

Figure 7.11 shows a scatter diagram

with each womans mean time spent

cycling on the horizontal axis and

mean caloric intake on the vertical

axis. Do higher cycling times

correspond to higher intake

of calories?

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 7.2- 26

probably tell you that there is a positive correlation in which

greater cycling time tends to go with higher caloric intake. But

the correlation is very weak, with a correlation coefficient of

r = 0.374.

However, notice that two points are

outliers: one representing a cyclist

who cycled about a half-hour per

day and consumed more than 3,000

calories, and the other representing

a cyclist who cycled more than 2

hours per day on only 1,200 calories.

Its difficult to explain the two outliers, given that all the women

in the sample have similar heights and weights.

Slide 7.2- 27

Solution: (cont.)

We might therefore suspect that these two women either recorded

their data incorrectly or were not following their usual habits

during the two-week study. If we can confirm this suspicion, then

we would have reason to delete the two data points as invalid.

Figure 7.12 shows that the correlation

is quite strong without those two

outlier points, and suggests that the

number of calories consumed rises by

a little more than 500 calories for

each hour of cycling.

Figure 7.12 The data from Figure

Of course, we should not remove

7.11 without the two outliers.

the outliers without confirming our

suspicion that they were invalid data points, and we should report

our reasons for leaving them out.

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 7.2- 28

Correlations can also be misinterpreted when data are grouped

inappropriately. In some cases, grouping data

hides correlations.

Consider a (hypothetical) study in which

researchers seek a correlation between hours

of TV watched per week and high school

grade point average (GPA). They collect the

21 data pairs in Table 7.3.

The scatter diagram (Figure 7.13) shows

virtually no correlation; the correlation

coefficient for the data is

about r = -0.063. The apparent conclusion

is that TV viewing habits are unrelated to

academic achievement.

Figure 7.13

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 7.2- 29

students watched mostly educational programs, while others

tended to watch comedies, dramas, and movies. She therefore

divides the data set into two groups, one for the students who

watched mostly educational television and one for the other

students.

Table 7.4

shows her

results with

the students

divided into

these two

groups.

Slide 7.2- 30

strong positive correlation for the students who watched

educational programs (r = 0.855) and a strong negative

correlation for the other students (r = -0.951).

Figure 7.14 These scatter diagrams show the same data as Figure 7.13,

separated into the two groups identified in Table 7.4.

Slide 7.2- 31

actually exists among subgroups.

Figure 7.15 shows the scatter diagram of the (hypothetical)

data collected by a consumer group studying the relationship

between the weights and prices of cars.

Figure 7.15 Scatter diagram for the car weight and price data.

is no correlation within either cluster.

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 7.2- 32

Perhaps the most important caution about interpreting

correlations is one weve already mentioned:

Correlation does not necessarily imply causality.

1. The correlation may be a coincidence.

2. Both correlation variables might be directly

influenced by some common underlying cause.

3. One of the correlated variables may actually be a

cause of the other. But note that, even in this case, it

may be just one of several causes.

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 7.2- 33

In discussing uses of correlation that might lead to wrong

interpretations, we have described the effects of outliers,

inappropriate groupings, fishing for correlations, and

incorrectly concluding that correlation implies causality.

But there are many correct and useful interpretations of

correlation.

In general, correlation plays a prominent and important role

in a variety of fields, including meteorology, medical

research, business, economics, market research, advertising,

psychology, and computer science.

Slide 7.2- 34

Definition

The best-fit line (or regression line) on a scatter

diagram is a line that lies closer to the data points

than any other possible line (according to a

standard statistical measure of closeness).

Slide 7.3- 35

Cautions in Making Predictions from Best-Fit Lines

1. Dont expect a best-fit line to give a good prediction

unless the correlation is strong and there are many

data points. If the sample points lie very close to the

best-fit line, the correlation is very strong and the

prediction is more likely to be accurate. If the sample

points lie away from the best-fit line by substantial

amounts, the correlation is weak and predictions tend

to be much less accurate.

2. Dont use a best-fit line to make predictions beyond

the bounds of the data points to which the line was fit.

Slide 7.3- 36

(cont.)

3. A best-fit line based on past data is not necessarily

valid now and might not result in valid predictions of

the future.

4. Dont make predictions about a population that is

different from the population from which the sample

data were drawn.

5. Remember that a best-fit line is meaningless when

there is no significant correlation or when the

relationship is nonlinear.

Slide 7.3- 37

State whether the prediction (or implied prediction) should be

trusted in each of the following cases, and explain why or why

not.

a. Youve found a best-fit line for a correlation between the

number of hours per day that people exercise and the

number of calories they consume each day. Youve used this

correlation to predict that a person who exercises 18 hours

per day would consume 15,000 calories per day.

Solution:

a. No one exercises 18 hours per day on an ongoing basis, so

this much exercise must be beyond the bounds of any data

collected. Therefore, a prediction about someone who

exercises 18 hours per day should not be trusted.

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 7.3- 38

State whether the prediction (or implied prediction) should be

trusted in each of the following cases, and explain why or why

not.

b. There is a well-known but weak correlation between SAT

scores and college grades. You use this correlation to predict

the college grades of your best friend from her SAT scores.

Solution:

b. The fact that the correlation between SAT scores and college

grades is weak means there is much scatter in the data. As a

result, we should not expect great accuracy if we use this

weak correlation to make a prediction about a single

individual.

Slide 7.3- 39

State whether the prediction (or implied prediction) should be

trusted in each of the following cases, and explain why or why

not.

c. Historical data have shown a strong negative correlation

between national birth rates and affluence. That is, countries

with greater affluence tend to have lower birth rates. These

data predict a high birth rate in Russia.

Solution:

c. We cannot automatically assume that the historical data still

apply today. In fact, Russia currently has a very low birth

rate, despite also having a low level of affluence.

Slide 7.3- 40

State whether the prediction (or implied prediction) should be

trusted in each of the following cases, and explain why or why

not.

d. A study in China has discovered correlations that are useful

in designing museum exhibits that Chinese children enjoy. A

curator suggests using this information to design a new

museum exhibit for Atlanta-area school children.

Solution:

d. The suggestion to use information from the Chinese study

for an Atlanta exhibit assumes that predictions made from

correlations in China also apply to Atlanta. However, given

the cultural differences between China and Atlanta, the

curators suggestion should not be considered without more

information to back it up.

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 7.3- 41

State whether the prediction (or implied prediction) should be

trusted in each of the following cases, and explain why or why

not.

e. Scientific studies have shown a very strong correlation

between childrens ingesting of lead and mental retardation.

Based on this correlation, paints containing lead were

banned.

Solution:

e. Given the strength of the correlation and the severity of the

consequences, this prediction and the ban that followed

seem quite reasonable. In fact, later studies established lead

as an actual cause of mental retardation, making the

rationale behind the ban even stronger.

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 7.3- 42

State whether the prediction (or implied prediction) should be

trusted in each of the following cases, and explain why or why

not.

f. Based on a large data set, youve made a scatter diagram for

salsa consumption (per person) versus years of education.

The diagram shows no significant correlation, but youve

drawn a best-fit line anyway. The line predicts that someone

who consumes a pint of salsa per week has at least 13 years

of education.

Solution:

f. Because there is no significant correlation, the best-fit line

and any predictions made from it are meaningless.

Slide 7.3- 43

Lines

Best-Fit Lines and r2

The square of the correlation coefficient, or r2, is

the proportion of the variation in a variable that

is accounted for by the best-fit line.

Slide 7.3- 44

Political scientists are interested in knowing what factors affect

voter turnout in elections. One such factor is the unemployment

rate. Data collected in presidential election years since 1964

show a very weak negative correlation between voter turnout

and the unemployment rate, with a correlation coefficient of

about r = -0.1. Based on this correlation, should we use the

unemployment rate to predict voter turnout in the next

presidential election?

Solution: The square of the correlation coefficient is r2 = (-0.1)2

= 0.01, which means that only about 1% of the variation in the

data is accounted for by the best-fit line. Nearly all of the

variation in the data must therefore be explained by other factors.

We conclude that unemployment is not a reliable predictor of

voter turnout.

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 7.3- 45

If we draw any line on a scatter diagram, we can measure the

vertical distance between each data point and that line. One

measure of how well the line fits the data is the sum of the

squares of these vertical distances.

A large sum means that the vertical distances of data points from

the line are fairly large and hence the line is not a very good fit.

A small sum means the data points lie close to the line and the fit

is good.

Of all possible lines, the best-fit line is the line that minimizes

the sum of the squares of the vertical distances.

Slide 7.3- 46

You may recall that the equation of any straight line can be written

in the general form

y = mx + b

where m is the slope of the line and b is the y-intercept of the line.

The formulas for the slope and y-intercept of the best-fit line are as

follows:

sy

slope = m = r s

x

y-intercept = b = y (m x)

x

In the above expressions, r is the correlation coefficient, sx denotes

the standard deviation of the x values (or the values of the first

variable), sy denotes the standard deviation of the y values, x

represents the mean of the values of the variable x, and yy

represents the mean of the values of the variable y.

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 7.3- 47

use a calculator or computer to find the slope and y-intercept of

best-fit lines.

When software or a calculator is used to find the slope and

intercept of the best-fit line, results are commonly expressed in

the format y = b0 + b1x, where b0 is the intercept and b1 is the

slope, so be careful to correctly identify those two values.

Slide 7.3- 48

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