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BIRLA VISHVAKARMA

MAHAVIDYALAYA
PROJECT TITLE
FORECASTING OF AIRPORT PLANNING
ID : BVM/15TSE003
PREPARED BY
SHALEHA VAHORA :
15TSE003

FORECASTING FOR AIRPORT


PLANNING

Paving the way to a better airport planning and


performance

CONTENT
INTRODUCTION
FORECASTING REQUIREMENT
WHAT NEEDS TO BE FORECASTED
FACTORS AFFECTING FORECASTING
LEVELS OF FORECASTING
TYPES OF FORECASTING
FORECASTING METHODS
FORECASTING APPLICATION

INTRODUCTION
WHAT IS A FORECASTING?
FORECAST
=ESTIMATION/PREDICTIONS
Forecastingis the process of making
predictions
of the future based on past and
present data
and analysis of trends.

FORECASTING REQUIREMENT
Main forecasting is needed for:
Analysis of future needs
Financial plan(estimate costs and project the sources of
revenue)
Airside development planning
Landside development planning
Community side planning

Other factors:
Adequate level of services
Reducing probability of errors in planning process
Enhance decision making process

WHAT NEEDS TO BE FORECASTED


Annual Operations air carrier, air taxi and regional commuter, general
aviation and military.
Volume and peaking characteristics of passengers, aircraft, vehicles and cargo.
Annual Passenger Enplanements
Aircraft Types Categorized as based aircraft and aircraft mix (jet, multiengine, piston, etc), and identification of the design or critical aircraft.
Domestic and international operations
Helicopter operations, training (touch and go) operations
Fuel volumes
Performance and operating characteristics of ground access system

FACTORS AFFECTING FORECASTING


1. Availability of capacity; airports and airspace
2. General economic situation; locally, nationally, and internationally
3. Socioeconomic and demographic variables of the airport region
4. Economic factors
5. Competition between airlines serving the airport as well as competition between
the air and other modes of transport
6. Environmental and political constraints on the air transport system and airline
industry
7. Technological advancement in aeronautics, telecommunication, air navigation,
and other related fields
8. Overall safety, security, and convenience of air travel

LEVELS OF
FORECASTING
TWO LEVELS

AGGREGATE
FORECASTING

DISAGGREGATE
FORECASTING

AGGREGATE
FORECASTING
Aggregate forecasts are forecasts of the total aviation
activity in a large region such as a country, state, or
metropolitan area.
Aggregate forecasts are made for such variables
The total revenue passenger-miles
Total enplaned passengers
The number of aircraft operations
Licensed pilots in the country.

DISAGGREGATE FORECASTING
Disaggregate forecasts deal with the activity at individual airports or
on individual routes.
It examine demand at local airports & development required
Disaggregate forecasts for airport planning determine such variables
as
the number of originations,
passenger origin-destination traffic,
the number of enplaned passengers,
the number of aircraft operations by air carrier and general aviation
aircraft at an airport.

TYPES OF FORECASTING

SHORT
TERM
(0-5YRS)

MEDIUM
TERM
(6-10YRS)

LONG TERM
(10-20YRS)

FORECASTING METHODS
Forecasting methods in general can be divided into three
broad categories:
QUANTITATIVE OR
MATHEMATICAL

DECISION ANALYSIS

QUALITATIVE OR
JUDGEMENTAL

QUANTITATIVE OR MATHEMATICAL
TIME
SERIES
METHOD

ECONOMIC
MODELLIN
G

TIME SERIES METHOD


EXTRAPOLATION METHOD
STEPS
COLLECTION OF HISTORICAL DATA
EXAMINATION OF HISTORICAL PATTERN
ASSUMES THE SAME FACTORS FOR VARIATION IN TRAFFIC
ANALYSIS OF GROWTH AND GROWTH RATE
TRENDS APPERS
ANALYSIS OF PATTERN OF DEMAND

EXTRAPOLATION:

STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES
TECHNIQUES

SMOOTHING
Linear

trend
Exponential trend
Parabolic
trend

ADVANTAGE
Short term forecasting
Eliminate cyclic variation
DISADVANTAGE
Inability to show a casual relationship between the
dependent and independent variables.
Degree of uncertainty increase.s with time

ECONOMETRIC MODELLING
Most complex and sophisticated technique.
Mathematical techniques to study the correlation between
dependent and independent variables.
Various techniques used in ECONOMIC MODELLING are:
1. Trip generation
2. Gravity models
3. Simple regression
4. Multiple regression

FAA FORECASTING USING


ECONOMERTIC MODELS
The Federal Aviation Administration utilizes econometric
models to determine national forecasts of U.S. aviation
demand. The FAA Aerospace Forecast provides a 12-year
outlook and view of the immediate future for aviation. It is
updated in March each year and includes aggregate level
forecasts.
The FAA Long Range Aerospace Forecasts is a long range
forecast that extends the 12-year forecast to a longer time
horizon, typically for a period of 25 years. This forecast
contains projections of
1. aircraft, fleet and hours, air carrier and regional/commuter
passenger

QUALITATIVE OR JUDGEMENTAL

Frequently a group of professionals knowledgeable about


aviation and the factors influencing aviation trends are
assembled to examine forecasts from several different
sources, and composite forecasts are prepared in
accordance with the information in these sources and the
collective judgment of the group

DELPHI TECHNIQUES

TECHNOLOGIC
FORECASTING

DELPHI TECHNIQUES
A common approach being utilized more often today for
preparing forecasts by judgment is known as the Delphi
method.
RATE OR PRIORITY

DISTRIBUTED

REEVALUATE

DECISION ANALYSIS
Decision analysis should be considered as a
combination of both quantitative and qualitative
analysis methods.
In decision analysis, the analysts judgement is used in
preparing forecasts for a particular area of expertise in
combination with some statistical or mathematical
techniques including subjective inputs of probabilities.
MARKET SHARE
METHOD

PROBABILISTIC
ANALYSIS

MARKET SHARE METHOD


Forecasting techniques which are utilized to proportion a largescale

aviation activity down to a local level are called market share,


ratio, OR top-down models.
demand forecasting at the local level
Determination of the share of total national traffic activity which
will be captured by an airport.
RATIO= local airport traffic

total national traffic

ADVANTAGES
Development of micro forecasts
Dependence on existing sources
Minimize the forecasting cost
DISADVANTAGE
Dependence on stability and predictability of ratios
Uncertainty surround market share

FORECASTING APPLICATION
THE AIRPORT SYSTEM PLAN
THE AIRPORT MASTER PLAN

THANK YOU