Introduction

Statistical Inference or Inferential

Statistics is the sacond facet of
statistics which concerns about
computing the chance that
something will occur in the future.

Example
Toys and Things, a toy and puzzle
manufacturer, recently developed a new
game based on sports trivia. It wants to
know between Slam Dunk and Home
Run will consumers like the most. So
they hire a research company to select a
sample of 2,000 consumers from the
population and ask each respondent their
comment about the new game. So they
can estimate the proportion of the
population that will purcahse the game.

What is probability?
Probablity is a value between
zero and one, inclusive,
describing the relative
possibility (chance or
likelyhood) an event. will occur

Three key words in

probability
Experiment: A process that leads to
occurrence of one and only one of
several possible observations.
Outcome: A particular result of an
experiment
Event: A collection of one or more
outcomes of an experiment.

Example
Video Games Inc. Recently developed a
new video game. Its playability is to be
tested by 80 veteran game players;
a)What is the experiment?
b)What is one possible outcome?
c)Suppose 65 players tried the new
game and said they liked it. Is 65 a
probability?

Subjective Probability

WHAT IT IS??
Its an individual estimation which is
made after considering any available
option and information
Always there is a considerable
latitude in the degree of uncertainty
that surrounds this probability, based
primarily on the knowledge
possessed by the individual
concerning the underlying process

Illustrations of subjective
pobability
Estimating the likelihood (probability)
the new england patriots will play in
the Super Bowl next year
Estimating the likelihood you will be
married before the age of 30
Estimating the likelihood the US
budget defict will be reduced by half
in the next 10 years

Type of Probability

Some Rules of Computing

Probabilities
Special Rule of Addition
The event must be mutually exclusive
which means if one event occurs, none of
other events can occur at the same time
Example :
If we toss a coin, will be only one side of
the coin will face up (not both of the side
at the same time)

Special Rule of addition

If two events A and B are mutually
exlclusive, the special rule of
addition states that the probability of
one o the other events occuring
equals the sum of their probabilities

P(A or B) = P(A) +
P(B)

Example
A restaurant will give the costumer
the most delicious food they can
give, but by having some new
cookie, the food is sometimes too
sweet, or maybe too spicy
Taste

Evnt

Numbe of
portion

Probabilit
y of this
occurence

Too Sweet

100

0.1

Satiscfacto
y

700

0.70

Too Spicy

200

0.2

100/1000

The probability of particular

food that will be either too
sweet or too spicy

P (A or C) = P(A) + P(C)
= 0,1 + 0,2
= 0,3

Note that the food cannot be both too sweet and

too spicy at the same time

COMPLEMENT RULE
The probability that a bag of mixed
vegetables selected is underweight
,P(A) ,plus the probability that it is not
an underweight bag, written P(~A) and
read not A must logically equal 1.
P(A) + P(~A) = 1
COMPLEMENT RULE :

P(A) = 1 P(~A)

EXAMPLE :
Recall the probability a bag of mixed vegetables is underweight is
0,035 and the probability of an overweight bag is 0,065 . Use the
complement rule to show the probability of a satisfactory bag is
0,900 .
solution

This is the special rule of

multiplication and is written
symbolically as :
P (A and B) = P(A)P(B)
For three independent events, A, B,
and C, the special rule of multiplication
used to determine the probability that
all three events will occur is :
P(A and B and C ) =
P(A)P(B)P(C)

Rule of Multiplication
There are two rules of multiplication, the special
rule and the general rule.
The special rule of multiplication
The special rule of multiplication requires that two
events A and B are independent.

Independence : the occurrence of one event has

no effect on the probability of the occurrence of
another event
One way to think about independence is to assume
that events A and B occur at different times.

Example :
A survey by the American Automobile
Association (AAA) revealed 60 percent of
its members made airline reservations
last year. Two members are selected at
random. What is determine the
probability both made airline
reservations last year?

 The general rule of multiplication

If two events are not independent, they are
reffered
to as dependent.

Conditional probability : the probability of a

particular event occurring, given that another
event has
occurred

We use the general rule of multiplication to find

the joint
probability of two events when the events are
not
independent
Symbolically, the joint probability, P(A and B), is

EXAMPLE :
A golfer has 12 golf shirt in his closet.
Suppose 9 of these shirts are white and
the others blue. He gets dressed in the
dark, so he just grabs a shirt and puts it
on. He plays golf two days in a row and
does not do laundry. What is the
likelihood both shirts selected are white?