2008 McGraw-Hill
2008 McGraw-Hill
Applications of Statistics
Scientific applications: A tool for
testing scientific theories
Practical applications : Used by
marketing advertisers, policy
makers, public health officials,
insurance underwriters, educators,
survey firms, stock investors and
analysts, and odds makers
2008 McGraw-Hill
2008 McGraw-Hill
Features of the
Statistical Imagination
It is a balanced way of observing the
world
It involves the ability to think through
a problem and maintain a sense of
proportion when weighing evidence
against preconceived notions
It helps us to understand that most
events are predictable
2008 McGraw-Hill
What is Science?
Science is the systematic study of
empirical phenomena
Empirical means observable and
measurable
Phenomena are facts,
happenstances, events, or
circumstances
2008 McGraw-Hill
Study subjects
Study subjects: The people or
objects under scientific
observation
Variation: How much the
measurements of a variable differ
among study subjects
2008 McGraw-Hill
A Hypothesis
A prediction about the relationship
between two variables, asserting
that differences among the
measurements of an independent
variable will correspond to
differences among the
measurements of a dependent
variable
2008 McGraw-Hill
Independent and
Dependent Variables
Dependent variable: The variable
whose variation we wish to explain
Independent variables: The predictor
variables that are related to, or predict
variation in, the dependent variable
2008 McGraw-Hill
Relationships Between
Independent and Dependent
Variables
Cause
Predictor
Stimulus
Intervention
Effect
Outcome
Response
Result
(action taken)
Correlation: measures of the two
variables fluctuate together
2008 McGraw-Hill
Mathematical Proportions
Division problems that weigh a part (the
numerator) against a whole (the
denominator)
Proportional thinking: placing an
observation into a larger context
A sense of proportion: to see things
objectively, make fair judgements about
behavior, and give the correct amount
of attention to things that really matter
2008 McGraw-Hill
Calculating Proportions
and Percentages
Start with a fraction
Divide the fraction to obtain a
proportion (in decimal form)
The quotient will always have
values between 0 and 1
Multiply the proportion by 100 to
change it into a percentage
2008 McGraw-Hill
Transforming Fractions,
Proportions, and
Percentages
To change a fraction into
a proportion:
Divide to decimalized
A proportion into a percentage: Multiply
by 100
A percentage into a proportion: Divide
the percentage by 100
To express a proportion as a fraction:
Observe the decimal places (See
Appendix A)
2008 McGraw-Hill
Rates
A rate is the frequency of occurrence of a
phenomenon per a specified, useful base
number of subjects in a population
Rate of occurrence = (p) (a base number)
Rates standardize comparisons for
populations at risk
The choice of a base number depends on the
phenomenon being measured
2008 McGraw-Hill
Presenting Answers to
Encourage Proportional
Thinking
Symbol
=
=
Formula
Contents of
Answer
formula
2008 McGraw-Hill
Statistical Follies
Watch out for small denominators,
especially when percentage
change data is reported
A few new cases in a small group
can appear as a large percentage
change
2008 McGraw-Hill