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DECLINE CARVE

ANALISIS

Introduction
Meaning of Reserves:
- Differs according to people
SPE Definition:
those quantities of petroleum which are anticipated to
be commercially recovered & marketable from
known accumulations from a given date forward.

People interested about reserves:


O&G Companies
Banks
Taxation ppul
Investors

Why are we concerned about reserve estimation?


Potential reserves on undrilled prospects
Differentiate reserves:
Proved
probable
possible

sizing and design of equipment


opportunities for additional profit from well stimulation

Problems:
- When u start producing, unsteady state
- Need long time to produce reliable data
- Whole basis: Predict life of reservoir
- We need at least 1 year of data for
the life of reservoir

extrapolating

Classification of Reserves
Developed
Proven
Reserves

Undevelop
ed
Probable

Unproven
Possible

Considerations for Proven:


When reliable data available:
Fluid production data
Pressure data

When sufficient data available:


Supported by Drive mechanisms

When limited data available:


When reservoir analogous to nearby reservoirs
When supported with Volumetric Calculations

Considerations for UNProven:


When sufficient data available:
Supported by UNCERTAIN Drive mechanisms

When limited data available:


When reservoir NOT analogous to nearby reservoirs
When NOT supported with Volumetric Calculations

Categories of Reserves

1. Developed reserves

Expected to be recovered from existing wells

2. Producing reserves

Recovered from the time of estimate and producing time

3. Non-Producing reserves

Shut-In : Expected to be recovered at time of


producing due to
mechanical reasons
Behind-pipe: behind casing zones which requires
start of production

4. Undeveloped reserves
1. Undrilled wells
2. Deepening of existing wells to diff reservoir
3. Large expenditure required

intervals but havent start


additional work due to

Analogy

Decline
Curve
Analysis

Model
Study /
Reservoi
r
Estimati
on

Method
of
Reserve
Estimati
on

Volumetri
c
Calculati
on

Material
Balance
Equatio
n

Decline curve analysis


- Is a reservoir engineering empirical technique that
extrapolates the trends in the production data from
oil and gas wells.
-

Purpose is to :
generate a forecast of future production rates,
forecast of well lifespan,
to determine the expected ultimate recoverable
reserves.

Graphical Representation of Production Data

ncreases, the

flow rate decreases due to reduction in reservoir pressur

What info do we get : - Number of years before abandonmen


- Cumulative production at time of abandonme

% Of Oil or water-cut vs Cumulative Production

When to abandoned well?

When value of oil produce

= cost of disposing produced wate

OWC VS Cumulative Production

Gp vs. Cumulative Oil Produced, Np

This plot is useful in cases where we know the expected total gas to
be produced
Oil Reserve corresponds to the cut-off point of expected Gp.

Average Reservoir pressure, P avg,


vs Time

P avg over the compressibility


factor, z, vs. Gp

An estimate of the ultimate predicable gas reserves may be obtained

Production rate is the most popular dependent


Readily available
Easily recorded
Consistent in showing trends

Economic limit
When a well loses money if production continues
Extrapolate each trend to its cut off point
Determine the number of years will produce profitably

Exponent
ial
Decline

Hyperbol
ic
Decline

Declin
e
Curve
Analys
is

Harmoni
c Decline

Nearly all conventional decline-curve


analysis is based on empirical
relationships of production rate versus
time, given by Arps (1945)

DETERMINATION !!

First ,you have to determine


which type of decline curve
youre dealing with .

Assumptions

Draw a table with 4 columns

Success !!

Hyperbolic Production Decline


They are 3 types of Decline Curve Analysis,
They are:
Exponential Production Decline
Hyperbolic Production Decline
Harmonic Production Decline

Decline-curve analysis is based on production rate versus


time, given by Arps (1945) is:

Where:
Qt = production rate at time t, stb/day
Qi = initial production rate stb/day
t = time, days
Di = initial decline rate, day 1
b = Arps decline-curve exponent

And also it can be expressed in other variables as:

3. Harmonic