ENSEMBLE (ENSEMBEL)
(Ensemble = the French word for assembly).
Gambar diatas adalah pengambaran jalan acak dalam bentuk yang ideal
dan sederhana
- Seorang pemabuk mulai dari sebuah tiang lampu pada sebuah jalan.
-Setiap langkah yang dia ambil panjangnya sama yaitu .
- Pemabuknya SO DRUNK, sehingga arah langkah nya acak; arah
langkah pertama, kedua dst tidak saling bergantung ( baik ke kiri atau
ke kanan).
-Peluang melangkah ke kanan diberikan oleh variabel p , ke kiri q = 1
p. Secara umum, q p.
(m diberikan?
Berapakan peluang
resultan dari geraknya
mempunyai besar dan
arah tertentu?
1. Magnetism
N atoms, each with magnetic moment . Each
has spin . By Quantum Mechanics, each
magnetic moment can point either up or
down. If these are equally likely, what is the
Net magnetic moment of the N atoms?
Statistical Mechanics.
So, its very important to spend some time on this
problem & understand it!
Clearly,
N = n 1 + n2
(1)
m = n 1 - n2
(2)
m = 2n1 N
(3)
N!/(n1!n2!)
This is the same as the # of distinct ways of taking N steps, with
n1 to the right & n2 to the left.
Kesimpulan:
Probabilitas WN(n1) mengambil N langkah, dengan n1 kekanan
dan n2 = N - n1 kekiri adalah WN(n1) = [N!/(n1!n2!)]pn1qn2
atau
ingat
q = 1- p
WN(n1) = N pn1qn2
n1
Probabilitas ini disebut dengan
Distribusi Binomial
Ini karena Ekpansi Binomial mempunyai bentuk
(p + q)N =
[N!/[n!(Nn1)!]pn1qn2
(n1 = 0N)
Distribusi Binomial
yang merupakan distribusi probabilitas yang paling dasar
(diskrit).
So
P3(3) = P3(-3) = (3!/[3!0!]() =
P3(1) = P3(-1) = (3!/[2!1!]() =
n1 n2
3
2
1
0
0
1
2
3
m = n1 n2
3
1
-1
-3
P20(20) = [20!/(20!0!)]()20
General Distribution.
Most of the following results are valid for ANY probability distribution,
<u> (S2/S1)
where
<O> iO(ui)P(ui)
Some simple mean values that are useful for describing the
probability distribution P(u):
Consider the quantity u u - (deviation from the mean). Its mean is:
Now, lets look at (u)2 = (u - <u>)2 (square of the deviation from the mean).
Its mean value is:
= <u2> - (<u>)2
We could also define the nth moment of P(u) about the mean:
Math Theorem
In order to uniquely determine a distribution P(u), we need to
know ALL moments of it. That is we need all moments for
n = 0,1,2,3. .
Weve found:
The probability in N steps of making n1 to the right & n2 = N - n1 to
the left is the Binomial Distribution:
WN(n1) = [N!/(n1!n2!)]pn1qn2
p = the probability of a step to the right, q = 1 p = the probability of a step to the left.
&
(1)
<n1> = Np
<n1> = Np
We might have guessed this! Similarly, we can also easily show that
<n2> = Nq
Of course, <n1> + <n2> = N(p + q) = N as it should!
Question 2:
What is the mean displacement, <x> = <m>?
Clearly, m = n1 n2, so <m> = <n1> - <n2> = N( p q)
So, if p = q = , <m> = 0 so, <x> = <m> = = 0
<n1> = Np
(n1)2pn1 [p(/p)]2pn1
(2)
<(n1)2> = Npq
This is the dispersion or variance of the binomial distribution.
The root mean square (rms) deviation from the mean is defined as:
(m)2 = 4(n1)2.
<(m)2> = 4Npq
If p = q = , <(m)2> = N
<(n1)2> = Npq
Relative width:
(*n1)/<n1> = (q)(pN)
for N increasing, the
mean value increases N,
the relative width
decreases (N)-
n!
n Cr
r! (n r)!
In
this notation, the probability distribution can be written:
Binomial Distribution, n = 11
No. of defective
bulbs, r
0
Probability
r
n-r
C
p
(1-p)
11 r
0
11
C
(0.04)
(0.96)
11 0
= 0.6382
1
10
C
(0.04)
(0.96)
11 1
= 0.2925
11
C2 (0.04)2(0.96)9
= 0.0609
3
8
C
(0.04)
(0.96)
11 3
= 0.0076
Probability
r
n-r
C
p
(1-p)
11 r
11
C0(0.04)0(0.96)11
= 0.638239
11
2
9
C
(0.04)
(0.96)
11 2
= 0.060943
11
C3 (0.04)3(0.96)8
= 0.007618
11
C4 (0.04)4(0.96)7
= 0.000635
11
C5 (0.04)5(0.96)6
= 0.000037
C1 (0.04)1(0.96)10 = 0.292526
Binomial Distribution
Probability Distribution of Defective Items
Binomial Distribution, n = 11, p = 0.04
0.70
Pr(Defective Items)
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
Defective Items
10
11
Binomial Distribution
Probability Distribution of Good Items
Binomial Distribution, n = 11, q = 0.96
0.70
Pr(Good Items)
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
Good Items
10
11
10
Wandering Photon
Animation found on the Internet!
Photon
One Dimension
e x
q( x)
2
e
2
e x
q( x)
2
r
P(absorbed at r) = f (r, )