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PROBABILITY

Prepared by: Engr. Kenny B. Cantila

Probabilityisthemeasureofthelikelinessthataneventwilloccur.

Probabilityis quantified as a number between 0 and 1 (where 0


indicatesimpossibilityand1indicatescertainty).

The higher the probabilityof an event, the more certain we are that
theeventwilloccur.

Definition 1:
The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment is
called the sample space and is represented by the symbol S.
Definition 2:
An event is a subset of a sample space.
Definition 3:
The complement of an event A with respect to S is the subset
of all elements of S that are not in A. We denote the
complement, of A by the symbol A'.
Definition 4:

The intersection of two events A and B, denoted by the symbol


A B, is the event containing all elements that are common to A
and B.

Definition 5 :

Two events A and B are mutually exclusive, or disjoint, if


AB is, if A and B have no elements in common.
Definition 6:

The union of the two events A and B, denoted by the symbol


AB, is the event containing all the elements that belong to A or
B or both.
Union both/or
Intersection- and
The relationship between events and the corresponding
sample space can be illustrated graphically by means of Venn
diagrams. In a Venn diagram we let the sample space be a
rectangle and represent events by circles drawn inside the
rectangle

ADDITIVE RULE:

Theorem
1:
If A and B are two events, then

Theorem
2:
If A and B are mutually exclusive,
then

Theorem
3:

For three events, A, B and C

Theorem
4:
If A and A' are complementary events, then

VENN DIAGRAM
S
5

1
4

7
6
3

Legend
A B C

Definition 7
If an experiment can result in any one of N different equally likely
outcomes, and if exactly n of these outcomes correspond to event A,
then the probability of event A is

The
probability of an event A is the sum of the weights of all sample
points in A. Therefore:

Some Properties of Probability


Property 1:

Property 2: (A and B are mutually exclusive)

Property 3: (A and B are mutually exclusive)

Example: Under the load F, the probabilities of failure of the individual


membersA,B,andCofthetrussshowninthefigureareP(A)=0.05,P(B)=
0.04, and P(C) = 0.03, respectively. The failure of any member(s) will
constitutefailureofthetruss.Assumingthatfailuresareindependent.

B
F

Definition

8:
The conditional probability of B, given A, denoted by P(B|A) is defined by

The conditional probability of A, given B, denoted by P(A|B) is defined by

Definition

9:

Two events A and B are statistically independent if and only if

provided the existences of the conditional probabilities. Otherwise, A and B are


dependent.

Events are said to be dependent if one event affects the other.


Events are said to be independent if either events does not affect one another.

Example: Consider a 100-km highway, and assume that the road condition
and traffic volume are uniform throughout the stretch, so that the accidents
areequallylikelytooccuranywhereonthehighway.Definetheevents:
A=anaccidentinkilometers0to30
B=anaccidentinkilometers20to60
3
0

2
0

6
0

100 km

3
0

2
0

6
0

What is the probability that the accident will happen in event


A given B?

What is the probability that the accident will happen in event


B given A?

Example: For the purpose of designing the left-turn lane (for eastbound
traffic), the60random observationsof the numbersofcarswaiting forleft
turnsatthecross-section,yieldedthefollowingresults:
No. of cars
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

No. of
Observations
4
16
20
14
3
2
1
0
0
60

Relative
Frequency
4/60
16/60
20/60
14/60
3/60
2/60
1/60
0
0

The number of cars waiting for left turns,

The settlement problem of a steel frame maybe idealized as


follows. A and B represent two footings resting on a soil. Each
footing may either remain at original level or settle 5 cm. The
probability of settlement in each footing is 0.1. However, the
probability that a footing will settle, given that the other has
settled is 0.8.

a) The possible conditions of the two footings are as follows:

E1
E2
E3
E4

= AB
A settles and B settles
=B
A does not settle and B settles
=A
A settles and B does not settle
=
A does not settle and B does not settle

What is the probability of E1?

What is the probability of E3?

What is the probability of E2?

What is the probability of E4?

What is the probability that E2 or E3 will happen?

What is the probability that footing A or B will settle?

Total Probability Theorem


If is a set of mutually exclusive, the probability of event B that
concurrently occurs with the , equals the sum of the products of the
conditional probability of A given , and the marginal probability of .

Example 2.21. Timber strength. Consider the timber


strength data and the frequency distribution given in the
table. The sample space can be represented by the
foregoing mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive
events .

Class Upper
Limit
(N/mm2)

Class Center
(N/mm2)

Absolute
Frequency

Relative
Frequency

2.5

1/165

10

7.5

15

12.5

20

17.5

1/165

25

22.5

9/165

30

27.5

18

18/165

35

32.5

26

26/165

40

37.5

38

38/165

45

42.5

34

34/165

50

47.5

20

20/165

55

52.5

9/165

60

57.5

5/165

65

62.5

70

67.5

3/165

75

72.5

1/165

Frequency Computation for Modulus of Rupture of Timber


38

Realtive Frequency

34

26
18
9
1

20
9

0 12.5
0 17.5 22.5 27.5 32.5 37.5 42.5 47.5 52.5 57.5 62.5
0 67.5 72.5
2.5 7.5

Class Intervals (N/mm2)

++

Suppose an engineer is interested in estimating the


probability that the modulus of rupture ranges from 40 to
50 N/mm2, that is, the event.

Bayes Theorem
Theorem 2.4 Let A and B be events with non-zero probability. Then