What is Climate Change, Definitions

Suggestions and linking it to Climate

Change Vulnerability in
Pakistan

Climate Change: Some

Definitions
Weather:

The state of the atmosphere at a

given time and place, with respect
to the variables such as temperature,
moisture, pressure etc.

Climate:

Average weather. Statistical description

of mean weather conditions over a
period of several years, typically 2-3
decades.

Climate Change:

Climate Change in excess of natural

variability, attributable to human
activity.

060212/0051

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GLOF-induced damages at Chut Ghusth, Ghulkin

Web Source: http://pamirtimes.net/2008/06/page/3/

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Temporal Change Detection In Biafo Glacier, Karakoram, Pakistan.

Landsat

image;Resolutio
n 30m

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3d view of Main Biafo Glacier (Shigar River Basin) with overlaid digitized boundary of the glacier
showing the changes in the main glacier stream.

Glacier Area Currently under Study at GCISC

Hunza River Basin

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The Water Challenge: Conclusion

There is an urgent need to

Assess Pakistans glaciers, future water

resources and storage requirements in the
wake of climate change threat

Take appropriate ameliorative measures

well in time to avoid calamites.
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Food Security Challenge

Agriculture Systems in Pakistan

Irrigated Agriculture
Consumes >90% of fresh water resources and contributes >80% to
national production

Rained and Dryland Agriculture

Contributes <30% to national production.

Vulnerability of Agriculture to
Climate Change

Irrigated areas: Vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due

to glacier melt in the wake of climate change

Semi-arid and Arid areas: Vulnerable to changes in

quantity, intensity and frequency of rainfalls.

Both of the irrigated and dry areas: vulnerable

to climate extreme events of floods, droughts, heat waves, cold
waves, dust storms, hail storms, sea storms, etc

Impacts of Climate Change on Crops

Shortening of growing season length

Loss in yield
Heat stress at sensitive growth stages,
e.g. flowering, grain initiation stages
Increased pest/disease incidence
Increased crop water requirements

Effect of increase in temperature on Wheat yields in different

agro-climatic zones of Pakistan

Climate Extreme Events

Flash floods,
Droughts,
Heavy precipitation events,
Hailstorms,
Dust storms,
Cyclones,
Heat /Cold waves

Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan

2009

Karachi received 205 mm of rain at Masroor Airbase and 144 mm at

Airport during July. Previous record for rainfall at Karachi is 208 mm
occurred in 1977

2007

Record heat wave gripped Pakistan during June, 2007. The temperature
of 48 C was recorded on 9th June, 2007 at Lahore, a record repeated after
78 years. Earlier it was recorded on 8 th June, 1929

2007

Two super cyclones namely Gonu of Cat-5 and Yemyin of Cat-1

developed in the Arabian Sea during June, 2007 and hit Makran
coast and adjoining countries. The history of Arabian Sea at least during the
previous century finds no such events occurring twice in a month

2006

In Pakistan, monsoon-related flooding was blamed for more than 185

deaths from late July through mid-August 2006 (AFP). In neighboring
eastern Afghanistan, heavy rainfall generated flooding that claimed
at
least 35 lives (Associated Press)

2005

Heavy rain caused flooding in parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan in

March. The flooding hit Balochistan Province very adversely. There
were more than 30 fatalities in southwestern Pakistan

Recent Climate Extremes in Pakistan

2005

During June, unusually warm temperatures in the mountainous

areas of northern Pakistan accelerated snowmelt and brought
extensive flooding along the Kabul, Swat, Kunar and Chitral rivers

2005

Heavy rains in the south and snow in the north as well as Kashmir
region triggered flooding and avalanches, killing at least 486 people
during second week of February

2004

Unusual late-season heavy snow fell across the Kashmir region

along
the border of India and Pakistan during early May. Some
20,000
nomads trapped in the Himalayan areas of Kashmir.

2003

Heavy rain and snow produced flooding in mid February was

responsible for more than 60 deaths in Balochistan province. Flash
flooding washed away parts of roads and highways.
2003
At least one million people were affected by seasonal monsoon rains
in southern Pakistan. Heavy rains caused 162 deaths with 153
fatalities
in the Sindh province

Continued:
2003
44C
2001

During early June, a heat wave caused maximum temperature reached

52C at Jacobabad on the 5th; normal highs in early June are near
621 mm rainfall in Islamabad during 10 hours in the month of July

1999-2001 Historys worst drought gripped Pakistan and parts of

surrounding countries

Buffaloes on Roof Top

(once a joke, now a reality)

Urban Flooding in Lai Nullah

( 23rd July 2001)

Flood Stranded People on the Highway

Rescuing the drowning fellows

Impacts on other Ecosystems

Land Degradation in Pakistan

Water Erosion
Wind Erosion
Salinity and Sodicity
Waterlogging
Low organic matter (<1%)

: 17%
: 8%
: 9%
: 5%
: 96%

Impacts on Land degradation

Land degradation enhanced by climate
change due to
Wind and water erosion, as a result of low
and high rainfall
Water-logging and Salinity, as a result of
greater evaporation from land surface.

Vulnerability of Mountain Region

Enhanced de-glaciation
Loss of biodiversity
Overall increasing trend in rainfall leading
to surface runoff, soil erosion, landslides,
sedimentation load downstream
Positive impact on yield of wheat
Prospects of two crops a year

Coastal Zones

Inundation of coastal areas will pose risk to Mangrove

forests, coral reefs breeding ground of fish and
infrastructure

Upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta will

pose risk to agriculture, fresh drinking water and livelihood
of dependant communities, thousands of hectares of fertile
soil will become saline

Even with drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions,

sea level will continue to rise for centuries beyond 2100
because of the long response time of the global ocean
system.

Coping with the Climate Change

Assessment of vulnerability, risk and possible impacts of

vulnerable areas and communities
Preparedness for disaster and risk management
Development of early warning system
Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods through infrastructural changes
Developing new and innovative farm production practices,
including new crop varieties and irrigation techniques
Empowering communities and local stakeholders for their
active participation in vulnerability assessment and
implementation of adaptation
Mainstreaming climate change into development planning at
all scales, levels and sectors

Conclusions

Climate change will lead to various disasters/hazards such as:

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF), Landslides, Avalanches,
Floods, Droughts and Cyclones.

Climate Change will also adversely affect various sectors of

Pakistans economy.

Realistic assessment of the impacts and implementation of

appropriate adaptation measures well in time is imperative.

Preparedness for disaster/ risk management and development

of early warning system will contribute to safeguarding the
vulnerable communities/sectors.
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