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MANAJEMEN

RESIKO
(RISK MANAGEMENT)

VENTURE CREATION PROCESS

KOMERSIALISASI TEKNOLOGI: TANTANGAN ?

Waktu yang diperlukan untuk teknologi bisa


mencapai 25% penduduk Amerika

Household electricity (1873)


Telephone (1875)
Automobile (1885)
Airplane travel (1903)
Radio (1906)
Television (1925)
Videocassette recorder (1952)
Personal computer (1975)
Cellular phone
Internet

46
35
55
54
22
26
34
15
13
7

tahun
tahun
tahun
tahun
tahun
tahun
tahun
tahun
tahun
tahun

Startup Business: Takut Gagal?


Industry

Startups Survivors Survival


Failure
1988 Q1 2002 Q1 (percent) (percent)

Total for all industries

565,812

303,517

Agriculture

15,564

Finance

53,6%

46,4%

9,239

59,4

40,6

14,899

8,005

53,7

46,3

Manufacturing

32,236

18,921

58,7

41,3

Real estate

16,229

10,261

63,2

36,8

142,504

72,512

50,9

49,1

Wholesale

37,307

19,171

51,4

48,6

Technology

28,575

13,159

46,1

53,9

485

221

45,6

54,4

18,733

8,387

44,8

55,2

Retail

- Comp hardware
- Comp software/service

Sumber: BizMiner 2002: Startup Business Risk Index

Contributing Risks to Failure


Business risks threaten the viability of the
idea to be implemented.
The top five business risks:
the product that no one really wants (market
risk),
the product that no longer fits into the overall
business strategy (strategic risk),
the product that the sales force doesn't
understand how to sell,
losing the support of senior management due
to a change in focus or a change in people
(management risk),
and, losing budgetary or personnel
commitment (budget risks).

Some risks are unpredictable in advance.

DEFINISI RESIKO

DEFINISI
Resiko: Probability dan konsekwensi tidak tercapainya
tujuan proyek yang telah ditentukan: could be anything

Tidak mudah untuk diketahui mengingat probability


dan konsekwensi kejadian umumnya sulit diukur
memerlukan pendugaan statistik

Komponen resiko:
Probability kejadian
Impact dari kejadian

DEFINISI
Resiko = f(probability, impact)

Probability

Tinggi
Resiko
Tinggi

Rendah

Resiko
Kecil

Resiko
Sedang

Kecil
Event

Besar
Impact

DEFINISI
Resiko disebabkan oleh ketidak
tahuan akan kejadian di masa yang
akan datang opportunity dan risk
Elemen lain dari resiko adalah
penyebab (bahaya) dan kehati-hatian
(waspada):
Resiko = f(hazard, safeguard)

DEFINISI
Risk averter (avoider): menyukai hasil
(outcome) yang pasti untuk dapat
menerima resiko
Risk neutral: menyukai mengambil
tindakan berdasarkan keadaan (expected
value)
Risk seeker: menyukai hasil (outcome)
yang tidak pasti dan berani mengambil
resiko

KETIDAKPASTIAN RESIKO
Decision making under certainty
Ada pilihan yang dominan

Decision making under risk


Pilihan terbaik didasarkan pada nilai harapan
(expected value) yang terbesar

Decision making under uncertainty

Maximax: Memaksimumkan profit


Maximin: Meminimumkan kerugian
Minimax: Meminimumkan regret
Laplace: Transform uncertainty to risk

DEFINISI MANAJEMEN
RESIKO
Adalah tindakan atau praktek
untuk mengatasi resiko, meliputi:
Perencanaan resiko
Penilaian (assessing) resiko yang
mencakup identifikasi dan analisis
Penanganan resiko
Pemantauan resiko

PERENCANAAN RESIKO
(RISK PLANNING)

This is the process of developing


and documenting an organized,
comprehensive, and interactive
strategy and methods for
identifying and analyzing risk
issues, developing risk handling
plans, and monitoring how risk
have changed.

PENILAIAN RESIKO
(RISK ASSESSMENT)

This process involves identifying and


analyzing program area and critical
technical process risks to increase the
likelihood of meeting cost,
performance, and schedule objective
Risk identification: examining the program
areas and each critical technical process to
identify and document the associated risk
Risk analysis: examining each identified
risk issue to estimate the likelihood and
predict the impact of the project

PENANGANAN RESIKO
(RISK HANDLING)

This is the process that identifies,


evaluates, selects, and implements
one or more strategies in order to
set risk at acceptance levels given
program constraints and
objectives: what should be done,
when it should be accomplished,
who is responsible, associated cost
and schedule

PEMANTAUAN RESIKO
(RISK MONITORING)

This is the process that systematically


tracks and evaluates the performance of
risk handling actions against established
metrics throughout the acquisition
process and provides inputs to updating
risk handling strategies as appropriate.

Analisa Resiko
(risk analysis)

Comparison with similar systems


Relevant lessons-learned studies
Experience
Result from tests and prototype development
Data from engineering or other models
Specialist and expert judgment
Analysis of plans and related documents
Modeling and simulation

Decision tree analysis

Sensitivity analysis of alternatives

Decision Tree Analysis and Expected


Monetary Value (EMV) Example
A decision tree is a diagramming analysis technique used to help
select the best course of action in situations in which future
outcomes are uncertain.

Ketergantungan antar Resiko


(risk interdependencies)
Action

Possible Benefit

Risk

Work overtime

Schedule compression More mistakes; higher


cost and longer schedule

Add resources

Schedule compression Higher cost and learning


curve shift

Parallel work

Schedule compression Rework and higher cost

Reduce scope

Schedule compression Unhappy customer and


and lower cost
no follow-on work

Hire low-cost
resources

Lower cost

Outsource
critical work

Lower cost and


Contractor possesses
schedule compression critical knowledge at
your expense

More mistake and longer


time period

Developing Contingency Plan

Risk avoidance; Risk prevention:


foolproofing
Risk Mitigation or Reduction: Placing air
bags in cars
Risk Transfer: Risk prevention through
insurance

Making A Decision: A Group Exercise