ANALYSIS OF BALANCE OF PAYMENT

EE452: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY ECONOMICS

DOLDEJ

TASSANAPOL

NASIRAT

JAMNONGJIT

KAMONPORN

- QUESTION What was the situation of Thailands current account

balance during 2013-2015?

CURRENT ACCOUNT
BALANCE
A continuous increase in value of receipts since 2013
31931.92

15417.72

-1498.78

-5169.13

40909

41275

41640

42005

CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, 2012-2015 (MILLION USD)

Source:

Balance of Payment

CURRENT ACCOUNT
COMPOSITION
Balances of goods and PI driven by payments, other by receipts
Year 2012

Year 2013

Year 2014

Year 2015

Goods

Services

Primary Income

Secondary Income

2012 2013 2014 2015

2012 2013 2014 2015

2012 2013 2014 2015

2012 2013 2014 2015

Account Balance
Source:

Account Outflow

Account Inflow
Balance of Payment

- QUESTION What were the situations of net capital inflow and net
capital flow in foreign direct investment and portfolio
investment?

FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
BALANCE
Positive but decreasing FDI, negative and decreasing portfolio
investment
FDI Capital Inflow (Mln. USD)

Portfolio Capital Inflow (Mln. USD)

15,935.95
12,899.03
10,357.97
7,087.11
3,720.21

-1,367.78
-4,694.62

-12,690.91

2012

Source:

2013

2014

2015

2012

2013

2014

2015

Balance of Payment

FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
BALANCE
Increasing domestic resident investing abroad from negative balance
FDI Net Capital Flow (Mln. USD)Portfolio Net Capital Flow (Mln. USD)
3,814.46

3,398.28

-563.49

-1,361.54

-3,480.68
-4,766.35

-12,086.33

-17,850.06

2012

Source:

2013

2014

2015

2012

2013

2014

2015

Balance of Payment

- QUESTION By analyzing current account, financial account, and

overall balance, are there concerns of financial vulnerability in
Thailand?

THAILAND VS VIETNAM YEARLY BOP

COMPARISON
Thailand has a significantly larger and more volatile balance of
payment
Thailand Yearly BoP (Mln USD)

Vietnam Yearly BoP (Mln USD)

40,000.00

40,000.00

30,000.00

30,000.00

20,000.00

20,000.00

10,000.00

10,000.00

0.00

0.00

-10,000.00

-10,000.00

-20,000.00

-20,000.00

-30,000.00

-30,000.00

Overall Balance
Source:

Current Account

Financial Account
Balance of Payment

THAILAND VS VIETNAM QUARTERLY BOP

COMPARISON
The two countries alternatively become more vulnerable than the
other
15,000.00

Thailand Quarterly BoP (Mln USD)

10,000.00
5,000.00
0.00
-5,000.00
-10,000.00
-15,000.00
15,000.0

Vietnam Quarterly BoP (Mln USD)

10,000.0
5,000.0
0.0
-5,000.0
-10,000.0
-15,000.0
Overall Balance
Source:

Current Account

Financial Account
Balance of Payment

- QUESTION Are there more concerns of economic vulnerability when

analyzing the composition of financial account?

THAILAND FUND INFLOW

BREAKDOWN
Major composition of fund inflow are FDI and portfolio investment
Thailand Quarterly Financial Account Composition (Mln USD)
20,000.00
15,000.00
10,000.00
5,000.00
0.00
-5,000.00
-10,000.00
-15,000.00
-20,000.00

FDI
Source:

Portfolio Investments

Other Investments

Total Financial Account

Balance of Payment

THAILAND CAPITAL INFLOW

DECOMPOSITION
FDI is the most important form of international investment in Thailand
FDI

PORTFOLIO

40.18%

Source:

36.99%

OTHER INVESTMENTS

31.60%

Balance of Payment

VIETNAM FUND INFLOW

BREAKDOWN
An increasing importance of FDI as a composition of fund inflow
Vietnam Quarterly Financial Account Composition (Mln USD)*
6,000.00
5,000.00
4,000.00
3,000.00
2,000.00
1,000.00
0.00
-1,000.00

FDI
Source:

Portfolio Investments

Other Investments

Total Financial Account

Balance of Payment

VIETNAM CAPITAL INFLOW

DECOMPOSITION
FDI is by far the largest source of fund inflow into Vietnam
FDI

PORTFOLIO

OTHER INVESTMENTS

59.39%
32.21%
7.04%

Source:

Balance of Payment

- QUESTION Is there evidence in the balance of payment of political

uncertainty to the flow of capital

FDI CAPITAL
INFLOW
Reasonable correlation between political uncertainty and fund flow
8000

6000

4000

2000

-2000

-4000

-6000

-8000
Source:

Thailand

Vietnam

Political Event in Thailand

Balance of Payment

PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT CAPITAL

INFLOW
Surprise absence of correlation between political unrest and liquid fund
flow
8000

6000

4000

2000

-2000

-4000

-6000
Source:

Thailand

Vietnam

Political Event in Thailand

Balance of Payment

- QUESTION Is it true that Thai residents have conducted more direct

investment and portfolio investments abroad after
2010?

FDI CAPITAL
OUTFLOW
Slight increase in FDI activities
3,000.00
2,000.00
1,000.00
0.00
-1,000.00
-2,000.00
-3,000.00
-4,000.00
-5,000.00
-6,000.00
-7,000.00

FDI Capital Outflow

Source:

3-Period Moving Average

Linear Regression
Balance of Payment

PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT CAPITAL

OUTFLOW
Greater evidence of increased international investment in liquid fund
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
-1000
-2000
-3000
-4000
-5000

Portfolio investment Capital Outflow

Source:

3-Period Moving Average

Linear Regression
Balance of Payment

ANALYSIS OF BALANCE OF PAYMENT

EE452: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY ECONOMICS
Q&A

DOLDEJ

TASSANAPOL

NASIRAT

JAMNONGJIT

KAMONPORN