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Probability statistics basic

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presentation

BITS Pilani Dr RAKHEE

Department of Mathematics

Pilani Campus

MATH F111 & AAOC C111

Probability and Statistics

BITS Pilani

Pilani Campus

Text Book

Introduction to Probability &Statistics

Authors : Milton & Arnold 4th Edition

Publisher : Tata McGraw Hill

Reference Books

Feller, Vol: 1, 2: An Introduction to Probability Theory

and Applications, 2nd edition, John Wiley & Sons,

2000.

P. L. Meyer: Introduction to Probability & Statistics,

2nd edition, Oxford & IBH, 1970.

Sheldon M. Ross: Introduction to Probability Models,

3rd edition, Elsevier, 2009.

Walpole, Myers R. H., Myer S. L., Ye K., Probability

& Statistics for Engineers and Scientists, 8 th ed.,

Pearson Education, 2007.

Johnson, R. A., Miller Freunds Probability and

Statistics, 7th. Ed., PHI, 2005.

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Instructors

Professor Rajeev Kumar

Dr. P.H. Keskar

Dr. Bhupendra K Sharma

Dr. Rakhee (Instructor-Incharge)

Dr. Deepmala

Dr. Amit Kumar Verma

Dr. Ashish Tiwari

Dr. Lajja

Dr. Javid Ali

Mr. Sachin Kumar

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Evaluation Components

EC Evaluation Duration Weighta Mark Date & Remarks

No Component ge (%) s Time

1 Mid- 90 mins 35 105 28/02 Closed

Semester 9.00 - Book

10.30 AM

Book

3 Compre. 3 Hours 45 135 08/05 FN Partially

exam Closed

Book

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Announcements

For all the course notices, see notice board III.

Also can check CMT website of the course

through Intrabits.

Make up policy: Make up for the mid-semester

component will be given to genuine cases with

prior written permission from IC followed by

supporting documents. It will be conducted

normally next week of the respective test and

for class test component there will be no

make-up.

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

BITS Pilani

Pilani Campus

Chapter 1

Introduction to Probability and

Counting

Deterministic vs. Statistical

methods.

not be able to tell precise outcome of the

experiment due to some uncertainties,

Statistics deals with such experiments.

Scope and objective of the

course

Probability theory deals with many real life

problems, which either inherently involves the

chance phenomena or describing the behavior

of the system explicitly with statistical

properties. Interpretation of the system

behavior in many engineering aspects depends

on concept of probability and statistics that

familiarizes with the computational aspects.

The course deals with basis properties of

various distributions and other related things.

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Mathematical Model

to study some observational phenomena we

must essentially begin by constructing a

mathematical model

(Deterministic or Statistical ) for these

phenomena.

What is Mathematical Modeling

Conversion of physical situation into

mathematics with some suitable conditions is

known as mathematical modeling.

Model can be of help for predictive purposes,

Model description must be translated into one

or more mathematical equations.

These equations can be used to determine the

value of a specific variable in the model based

on the knowledge of the values assumed by

other model variables.

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Deterministic / Statistical

methods

Statistical methods are designed to

allow us to assess the degree of

uncertainty present in our results i.e.

we may not be able to tell precise

outcome of the experiment due to

some uncertainties.

Statistical Methods

Descriptive Statistics: we mean those

techniques which allow us to describe set of

observations both in analytical and graphical

mode.

Inferential Statistics : Conclusions can be

drawn about a large group of objects, based

on observing only a portion of the objects in

the larger group.

Model building : Developing equations for

the purpose of prediction using observed data.

Definitions

about which conclusion is to be drawn is

called population.

and used to draw conclusions about the

population.

Probabilities

assign the probability

( A) Personal Probability: Based on

personal judgment or feeling.

Advantage: It is always applicable.

Disadvantage: Accuracy depends upon

the accuracy of the information available

and the ability of the scientist to assess

the information correctly.

Probabilities

To decide the probability of an event,

we repeat the experiment large

number of times independently. If the

occurrence of event A, is denoted by

P[A] then f

P[A] = n ;

n = no. of trials, f = no. of times the

event occurred in n trials, for large n

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Probabilities

that all outcomes of the experiment

are equally likely : For an event A

P ( A)

number of ways experiment can run

Section 1.1

defect of males characterized by delayed

clotting of blood which makes it difficult to

control bleeding even in case of minor injury.

When a woman is a carrier of classical

hemophilia, there is a 50% chance that a

male child will inherit the disease. If a carrier

gives birth to 2 sons, what is the probability

that both boys will have disease?

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Some definitions

Experiment:

Any process that yields a result or an

observation;

A physical action or activity that is

observed and result noted.

Deterministic Experiment: If the result

can be predicted with certainty prior to

the performance of the experiment..

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Some definitions

can not be predicted with certainty but

all possible outcomes can be

determined prior to the performance

of the experiment.

Outcome:

A particular result of an experiment.

Some definitions

experiment is the set S such that each

physical outcome of that experiment

corresponds to exactly one element of S.

An element of S is called a sample point.

space S of an experiment is called an

event.

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Some definitions

called impossible event and an

event S called certain event.

theoretic methods to represent sample

spaces and events.

Examples

the upper faces (H for head and T for tail) in

sequential order.

TTT }

As events we can consider subsets,

e.g., empty set , S, {HHH, HHT} are

events.

which is same as {THT, TTH, TTH}

Let E be the random experiment:

two numbers on the top. A sample

space would be

Let E be the random experiment:

Count the number of machines

produced by a factory until a defective

machine is produced.

could be S = {1,2,3,- - - - - -}.

Let E be the random experiment:

Count the life length of a bulb

produced by a factory.

Definition : The complement of an event

A in a sample space S is an event

A' = { x S : x A}.

Definition : Two events A, B in a sample

space are called mutually exclusive if

AB is an empty set.

Extending to more events: Events F1, F2,

are mutually exclusive if for any i j

Fi F j

Operations on events : Like sets, we

can consider union, intersection,

complements of events. They can be

conveniently demonstrated by Venn

diagrams.

Section 1.2

8 A missile battery can fire five missiles

in rapid succession. As soon as the

target is hit, firing will cease, let h

represent a hit and m a miss.

(i) Draw the tree to represent the possible

firing of these missiles at a single incoming

target.

(ii) List the sample points generated by the

tree

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

(iii) List the sample points that constitute the

event

C: exactly two shots are fired

D : At most two shots are fired

Are the events mutually exclusive?

Counting

taking place in r stages and qi denote

the number of ways ith stage can occur

then the experiment can be performed

in q1 q2 qr ways.

Applications of multiplication Rule :

Number of permutations of any r

objects from given n distinct objects

= nPr= (n!)/((n-r)!).

Number of ways of choosing r objects

without repetition from n given

objects= n n!

r

r!( n r )!

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Permutations of indistinguishable objects :

If we are permuting n objects of r

distinguishable types such that there are qi

(indistinguishable) objects of ith type for

i = 1,2, , r then number of distinct

arrangements of these n objects is

n!

(q1!)...(qr !)

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Example :

10 persons in a room are wearing badges

marked 1 through 10. 3 persons are

chosen at random and asked to leave the

room simultaneously and their badge

numbers are noted. Find the probability

that

(i) the smallest badge number is 5.

(ii) the largest badge number is 5

Example : A firm employs 10

programmers, 8 system analysts, 4

computer engineers and 3

statisticians. A team is to be chosen

to handle a new long-term project.

The team will consist of 3

programmers, 2 system analysts, 2

computer engineers and 1 statistician.

(i) In how many ways can the team be

chosen?

(ii) If the customer insists that one

particular engineer with whom he or

she has worked before be assigned

to the project, in how many ways can

the team be chosen?

Example: A computer system uses

passwords which consist of 5 letters

followed by a digit.

(i) How many passwords are possible?

(ii) How many passwords consist of 3 As

and 2 Bs and end in an even digit?

(ii) Assume that these mechanisms

are installed in some preassigned

order, how many ways of setting

the system are available if

adjacent mechanisms can not be

set in the same position .

(iii) How many ways are available if

only positions r & s are available

and these are used equally often.

(iv) How many ways are available if

only two different positions are used

& one of these position appears

three times as often as the other.

Example: A box contains tags

marked 1,2,.m , two tags are

chosen at random .Find the

probability that numbers on the

tags will be consecutive integers if

(i) the tags are chosen without

replacement

(ii) tags are chosen with

replacement BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Answer : (i)2/m (ii) 2(m-1)/m2

Example: A traffic engineer is setting the

timings on a series of 10 spotlights on the

main street of a small town. At any given

time a light can be either red, yellow or

green. How many color patterns are

possible for the series of lights at startup? If

the lights come on at random at startup,

what is the probability that the initial setting

will consist of 3 red, 5 yellow, and 2 green

lights? BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

22. A company receives a shipment of 20

hard drives. Before accepting the

shipment, 5 of them will be randomly

selected and tested. If all 5 meet

specifications, then the shipment will be

accepted. Otherwise all 20 will be returned

to manufacturer. If in fact 3 of the 20

drives are defective, what is the probability

the shipment will not be accepted ?

26 A garage door has six toggle switches

each with three settings up, center and

down.

(i) In how many ways these switches be set .

(ii) If a thief knows the type of opener

involved but does not know the settings

what is the probability that he or she can

guess the setting on the first attempt.

(iii) How many settings are possible in which

two switches are up , two are down and

two are in the center.

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

33. A main frame computer has 16 ports . At

any given time each port is either in use

or not in use . How many possibilities are

there for overall port usage of this

computer? How many of these entail the

use of at least 1 port.

Example: From six positive & 8

negative number, 4 numbers are

chosen at random without

replacement and multiplied. Find the

probability that product is a (+ve)

number.

Thank You

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