Making Policy

Analysing Policy Processes

One-Child Policy

Group 1 B
Khieu, Suntheng
Dai, Qiqi Lin, I-Chen
Eltayeb Abdel-Razia, Mohamed Khidir Rubiyantoro, Yohan
Sheldrake, Jonathan
Fajuke, Theresa
Tetteh-Wayoe, Rosemary Dede
Ji, Jie
What?
One child policy (aka Family Planning Policy) limits couples of Chinese
majority Han ethnic group to having only one child
How? When?
Mao Zedong (1949-1976) More People More Power and the Great Leap
Forward policies precipitated nation-wide famine from approximately 1958-
1962
Global discourse on growing issue of overpopulation and population
management (1970s)
Birth control campaign
Song Jian, 1975, military scientist puts forward data on possible negative
outcomes of population grown
1979: one child policy introduced, with goal of limiting population to 1.2 billion
by the end of the 20th century
2013: The relaxed policy has been implemented in 29 out of the 31 provinces,
with the exceptions of Xinjiang and Tibet. Approximately 11 million couples in
China are allowed to have a second child; however, only "nearly one million"
couples applied to have a second child in 2014, less than half the expected
number of 2 million per year
2015: Families allowed to have two children.
Characteristics of one-child policy in China:
First implemented in 1979 and for reducing China's rapid
development of the population

Demographic targets down

to local level

Government regulations and

fines for unplanned birth

Pressure to abort unplanned

pregnancies

Highly organized service

The abolition of the one - child policy in China
(The one-child policy was abolished in 2016)

Reasons for abolition:

Decline of reproductivity
Issue of aging society
Ultra-low levels of fertility

Possible positive effects:

The acceleration toward gender equality
The reduction of female morbidity and mortality risk
from fewer pregnancies
The reduction of the total fertility rate
Kingdons Three Streams
Kingdon in 1984, Agenda, Options and Public Policy
Why certain policies were paid attention to and the
others were not based on multiple streams theory.

1. Problem Stream
2. Policy Stream
3. Political Stream
Zhao (2016) analyzed on policy change of Chinese family
planning by the theory of multiple streams.

1. Problem Stream
a. China's population age structure imbalance
The 2000 census data show that China has begun to enter the
old age society.
Avoidance of not rich first old.

b. Population sex ratio imbalance

The ratio of male to female is much higher than that of normal
newborn which could lead to a series of social problems.

c. China's population policy objectives change

d. Lost child families government burden

2. Policy Stream
A call for the relaxation of the original family planning policy
from a group of experts, scholar, the NPC deputies and CPPCC
members.
Ye Tingfang and other 28 members of the CPPCC jointly
submitted a proposal to stop the implementation of the one-
child policy.
In 2013, selective two-child policy Lai Yongming, the
member of National People's Congress, called as a greater
pace of reform of family planning.
Mu Guangzong, a professor at Peking University believes that
open two child policy could reduce the risk families generation
and alleviate social problems.
3. Political Stream
It is believed strong national mood and the change of the ruling
party's idea played a role.
Implementation of the people-oriented policy in 17 th CPC
National Congress and human rights in the 18 th.
Incrementalism
1984 rural families and parents who are single
children themselves allowed to apply for a permit to
have 2 children
2013 can apply to have 2 children if at least one
parent is a single child
2015 restriction eased substantially, couples may
have 2 children without permit (in most provinces)
Further exceptions incrementally rolled out: disabled
children, fathers who are disabled servicemen,
Chinese nationals returning from abroad
Thank You!
Reference
Zhao, H. (2016) Research on the Change of Family Planning Policy in
China Based on the Theory of Multiple Streams. Scholars Journal of
Economics, Business and Management. 3(8):421-425.
King, M. (2005). China's infamous one-child policy. Peer Reviewed
Journal. Vol.365(9455), pp.215-216
Feng, W., Cai, Y. & Gu, 2012. Population, Policy, and Politics: How Will
History Judge China's One-Child Policy?. Population and Development
Review, Volume 38, pp. 115-129.
Hivistendahl, M., 2010. Has China Outgrown The One-Child Policy?.
American Association for the Advancement of Science, 329(5998), pp.
1458-1461
Jing, Y., 2013. The One-Child Policy needs an overhaul. Journal of
Policy Analysis and Management, 32(2), pp. 392-399.