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Global Climate Change

Earth is Warming
How do we know?
What do we know?
How confident are hypotheses about causes?
What are greenhouse gases?
Where do they come from, and how do we
know?
Most common claims of the skeptics
Ts are going down, not up
This warming is just part of a natural cycle
CO2 is good for plants
Global Climate Change

Earth is Warming
How do we know?
What do we know?
How confident are hypotheses about causes?
What are greenhouse gases?
Where do they come from, and how do we
know?
Most common claims of the skeptics
Ts are going down, not up
This warming is just part of a natural cycle
CO2 is good for plants
NOAA Global Historical
Climatology Network: DATA

Stations with at least 10


years of record for these 30-
yr intervals
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/ghcn-
daily/
The Historical T Data Network

From: Kitchen (2014) Global Climate Change


Anomalies instead of Absolute T
Data

1. Variations from station to station can be


erratic due to small variations in local
conditions

2. Regional anomalies are much more


consistent, over a larger area, than
station to station readings.

3. Anomalies allow more accurate


assessment of T variation through time.
Days vs. Nights

From: Kitchen (2014) Global Climate Change


Days vs. Nights

From: Kitchen (2014) Global Climate Change


IPCC - Data

IPCC -
2007
IPCC Last 2000 yrs

IPCC- 2007
Land + Ocean Ts

National Research Council (2010) weather stations + SSTs from direct and
satellite measurements.
Melting Ice
Greenland Antarctica
Jakobshavn is the fastest-flowing Two weeks after a
glacier in the world. In 2010, the new record was set in the Arctic Ocea
glacier moved at 15 kilometers per n
year, shedding ice into the Arctic for the least amount of sea ice
Ocean as it surged from land to sea. coverage in the satellite record, the
It drains more than six percent of the ice surrounding Antarctica reached its
Greenland ice cap and contributes annual winter maximumand set a
more to global sea level rise than any record for a new high. Sea ice
other feature in the Northern extended over 19.44 million square
Hemisphere. The glacier has both kilometers (7.51 million square miles)
retreated and thinned in recent years. in 2012, according to the National
In 2010, Jakobshavnretreated1.5 Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/v
kilometers. The previous record of 19.39 million
iew.php?id=76590 kilometers (7.49 million square miles)
http://earthobservatory.na
was set in 2006.
sa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=79
From: Kitchen (2014) Global Climate Change
Arctic Sea Ice

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfC
hange/sea_ice.php

National Snow and Ice Data


Center (NSIDC)
Over the last decade, Arctic sea ice extents in September have
set record lows three times, and the 2011 minimum nearly tied
the 2007 record low.
The nine lowest maximum extents have occurred in the
last nine years, since 2004, Meier says.
Warming + Melting = Sea Level
Rise

From: Kitchen
(2014) Global
Climate
Change
Global Climate Change

Earth is Warming
How do we know?
What do we know?
How confident are hypotheses about
causes?
What are greenhouse gases?
Where do they come from, and how do we
know?
Most common claims of the skeptics
Ts are going down, not up
This warming is just part of a natural cycle
CO2 is good for plants
Causes of Warming How
confident?

Visible light

Shorter Gamma UV Infrared Longer


X rays Microwaves TV, Radio waves
wavelengths rays radiation radiation wavelengths
and higher and lower
energy energy
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 0.1 10 100 0.1 1 10 1 10 100
Wavelengths
(not to scale) Nanometers Micrometers Centimeters Meters

Electromagnetic Spectrum: light =


energy = waves
Flow of Energy to and from the
Earth
Solar
radiation

Refected by Radiated
atmosphere by
UV radiation atmospher
e
Lower Stratosphere as heat
Most UV (ozone layer)
absorbed Heat
Visible
by ozone Tropospher Heat added radiated by
light
e to the earth
tropospher Greenhouse
Absorbed e effect
by the earth

From: Miller (2010) Living in the Environment


Whats a Greenhouse Gas?
Greenhouse gases respond to long-wave
radiation (infrared radiation) by vibrating
this vibration sends out (or re-radiates) a
portion of that original infrared radiation
heat.
Some of these are:
Water vapor
Carbon dioxide
Methane
CFCs
Ozone
Yellow = observed by
satellites

Valleys = absorption
by GHGs

CO2 could raise overall


heat budget of atmos. by
National Research Council - GHG

Analysis of air bubbles trapped in Antarctic ice cores show that, along with
carbon dioxide, atmospheric concentrations of methane (CH4) and nitrous
oxide (N2O) were relatively constant until they started to rise in the Industrial
era. Atmospheric concentration units indicate the number of molecules of the
greenhouse gas per million molecules of air for carbon dioxide and nitrous
How Do We Know Were Adding CO2 to
the Atmosphere? 14
C!
Living things incorporate 14C into their bodies
in the same proportion as it occurs in the
atmosphere

When the organism dies, it begins to lose 14C,


via radioactive decay [half-life of 5730 yrs]

Tree rings record relative amounts of 14C in


the atmosphere, and show a large increase in
the proportion of 12C since the industrial
revolution

This comes from fossil fuels, which are too


old to have any 14C remaining
Carbon
dioxide in Respiration

Carbon atmosphere
Photosynthesis

Cycle
Animals
(consumers) Burning
fossil
Diffusion Forest fires fuels

Plants
Deforestation (producers
)
Transportation Respiration
Carbon in
plants
(producers
Carbon in
)
Carbon dioxide
dissolved in animals
(consumers
ocean ) Decomposition
Carbon in
Marine food webs fossil
Producers,
consumers, fuels
decomposers

Carbon in Compaction
limestone or
dolomite
sediments
Process
Reservoir

Pathway affected by
humans
Natural pathway
Fig. 3-19, p. 70
Trends in CO2 : NOAA

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/histo
ry.html
Temperature and CO2

Temperature change (blue) and carbon dioxide change


(red) observed inice core recordsMany other records are
Temperature and CO2

An estimate from the tropical ocean, far from the influence of ice
sheets, indicates that the tropical ocean may warm 5C for adoubling
of carbon dioxide. The paleo data provide a valuable independent
check on the sensitivity of climate models, and the 5C value is
consistent with many of the current coupled climate models.
Temperature Projections - NOAA

http://www.climate.gov/#education/teachingRes
ources
Global Climate Change

Earth is Warming
How do we know?
What do we know?
How confident are hypotheses about causes?
What are greenhouse gases?
Where do they come from, and how do we
know?
Most common claims of the skeptics
Ts are going down, not up
This warming is just part of a natural cycle
CO2 is good for plants

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