Bab B5A
Bab B5A
Distribusi Probabilitas 1
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Bab 5A
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Bab 5A
DISTRIBUSI PROBABILITAS 1
A. Pendahuluan
1. Distribusi Probabilitas
Fungsi densitas
Derajat kebebasan
Banyaknya parameter penentu
Rerata
Variansi dan simpangan baku
Fungsi distribusi
3. Fungsi Densitas
Bentuk tabel
Bentuk grafik (biasanya histogram)
Bentuk rumus
Tabel
X b(X ; 6, 1/6)
0 0,3349
1 0,4019
2 0,2009
3 0,0536
4 0,0080
5 0,0006
6 0,0001
Grafik b
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
X
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Rumus
6 1 5
b(X ; 6, 1/6) = ( X )( 6 )X ( 6 )6 - X
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4. Fungsi Distribusi
Ditabelkan
z diketahui
Diketahui
z ditabelkan
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6. Alat Bantu
1. Fungsi Densitas
f (X) = 1 / 6
f(X)
1
6
X
1 2 3 4 5 6
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1
f (X) = N
f (X)
1
N
X
1 2 3 N
Rerata
X
X E ( X ) pX
N
Variansi
X2 E ( X 2 ) [ E ( X )]2 pX 2 ( pX ) 2
( X )2
X N 2
Simpangan baku
( X )2
X N 2
X X2
N
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Contoh 1
X p X2 pX pX2
1 1/6 1 1/6 1/6
2 1/6 4 2/6 4/6
3 1/6 9 3/6 9/6
4 1/6 16 4/6 16/6
5 1/6 25 5/6 25/6
6 1/6 36 6/6 36/6
21/6 91/6
x = pX = 21 / 6 = 3,5
X = 2,92 = 1,71
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3. Fungsi Distribusi
X p FDB
1 1/N 1/N
2 1/N 2/N
3 1/N 3/N
. . .
. . .
. . .
k 1/N k/N
. . .
. . .
. . .
N1 1/N (N1)/N
N 1/N 1
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Contoh 2
X p FDB
1 1/6 1/6
2 1/6 2/6
3 1/6 3/6
4 1/6 4/6
5 1/6 5/6
6 1/6 1
(a) P (X 4) = 4/6
(b) P (X = 4) = P (X 4) P (X 3) = 4/6 3/6 = 1/6
(c) P (X 3) = 1 P (X 2) = 1 2/6 = 4/6
(d) P (X 5) =
(e) P (X < 3) =
(f) P (X = 5) =
(g) P (X 4) =
(h) P (2 X 5) = P (X 5) P (X 1) =
(i) P (2 < X 5) =
(j) P (2 X < 5) =
(k) P (2 < X < 5) =
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2. Cobaan Bernoulli
N X N X
b( X ; N , p ) p q
X
X A NX
Contoh 3
Fungsi densitas
X 6 X
1 6 1 5
b( X ;6, )
6 X 6 6
1 b
X b (X ; 6, )
6
0 0,3349 0,4
1 0,4019
2 0,2009
3 0,0536
4 0,0080
5 0,0006 X
6 0,0001 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
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Contoh 4
b (3 ; 4, 0,65) = 0,3105
b (7 ; 9, 0,95) = 0,0629
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Contoh 5
b (4 ; 4, 0,80) =
b (1 ; 6, 0,05) =
b (7 ; 8, 0,55) =
b (5 ; 10, 0,30) =
b (2 ; 20, 0,15) =
b (1 ; 1, 0,70) =
b (2 ; 3, 1/3) =
b (0 ; 5, 0,35) =
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Rerata X = Np
Variansi 2X = Npq
Contoh 6
Rerata X = Np = (6)(1/6) = 1
6. Fungsi Distribusi
X k
B( k ; N , p ) b( X ; N , p)
X 0
B (X ; N, p) = B (N X 1 ; N, 1 p)
b (X ; N, p) = B (X ; N, p) B (X 1 ; N, p)
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Contoh 7
Contoh 8
B (8 ; 15, 0,40) =
B (9 ; 10, 0,60) =
B (7 ; 20, 0,45) =
B (8 ; 9, 0,95) =
b (8 ; 15, 0,40) =
b (4 ; 20, 0,45) =
b (5 ; 9, 0,75) =
Contoh 9
B( ) =
B( ) =
B( ) =
B( ) =
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1. Fungsi Densitas
Peristiwa A1 A2 A3 . . . Ak
Probabilitas p1 p2 p3 . . . Pk p = 1
Kali terjadi X 1 X 2 X3 Xk
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Contoh 10
A 4 5 6 7 8 9 Jumlah
p 0,06 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,22 0,12 1,00
X 3 5 10 15 11 6 50
Contoh 11
f ( X 1 , X 2 ,..., X k ; p1 , p2 ,..., pk )
N!
p1X 1 p2X 2 ... pkXk
X 1! X 2 !... X k !
Contoh 12
Nilai C B A
Probabilitas 0,5 0,25 0,25
X 5 2 1
f ( X 1 , X 2 , X 3 ; N , p1 , p2 , p3 )
1 1 1
f (5,2,1;8, , , )
2 4 4
5 2
8! 1 1 1
5!2!1! 2 4 4
21
256
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p = tetap p berubah
h (X ; N, n, k)
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(k) (N k)
(X) (n X)
k N k
X n X
h( X ; N , n, k )
N
n
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Contoh 13
h( X ; N , n, k ) h( 2;8,5,3)
3 5
2 3
8
5
30
56
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h (X1,X2,,Xr;N,n,k1,k2,,kr)
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Populasi Sampel
ukuran N ukuran n
k1 peristiwa A1 X1 peristiwa A1
k2 peristiwa A2 X2 peristiwa A2
kr peristiwa Ar Xr peristiwa Ar
ki
X
h( X 1 , X 2 ,..., X r ; N , n, k1 , k 2 ,..., k r ) i
N
n
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Contoh 14
N = 10 n = 5 k1 = 3 k2 = 4 k3 = 3
X1 = 1 X2 = 2 X3 = 2
h( X 1 , X 2 , X 3 ; N , n, k1 , k 2 , k3 )
h(1,2,2;10,5,3,4,3)
3 4 3
1 2 2
10
5
3
14
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Rerata
k
X n
N
Variansi
k k N n
X2 n 1
N N N 1
Simpangan baku
k k N n
X n 1
N N N 1
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X = Np
2X = Npq = Np(1 p)
X = Npq = Np(1 p)
Sampel acak
Sampel 1
populasi Sampel 2
(N) Sampel 3
k
X n
N
k k N n
X2 n 1
N N N 1
k k N n
X n 1
N N N 1
Sampel acak
Sampel 1
Populasi
(N) Sampel 2
Sampel 3
k
p = tetap = berubah
N
k
X n
X = Np N
k k N n
X2 n 1
2X = Np(1 p) N N N 1
k k N n
X n 1
X = Np(1 p) N N N 1
6. Faktor Pembeda
Letak perbedaan
N n
pada variansi
N 1
n n
5% atau 0,05
N N
N n N n
1 atau 1
N 1 N 1
Nn
N1