Class Review
IB2002 Risk Management for
IFIs
Profitability
(Making profit with Financial stability
risk)
Credit risk
Market risk, Market risk 1. Capital Adequacy
operational risk
Liquidity risk Operational risk 2. Supervision
Legal risk 3. Market discipline
RoR, DCR,
Shariah risk
Profitability vs Financial
Stability
Banks as profit-maximizing firms cannot be
left alone without proper regulations by
authorities.
Banks may take excessive risks and
overlooked safety of depositors fund,
eroding capital and thus jeopardizing public
confidence.
Thus in making profit, banks may introduce
financial instabilities.
The purpose of regulation is to instill
financial stability by controlling banks
behaviour.
Loss Financi
Reduc
due Reduc al
e Bank
Risk e Instabil
Earnin Failure
exposu Capital ity
gs
res
Capital
Unexpec Insolvent Credit Recessio
Depletio
ted Loss Banks Crunch n
n
5 Basic Shariah Principles in
Financial Transactions
#1 Prohibition of Riba
#2 Application of Al-Bay
#3 Avoidance of Gharar
#4 Prohibition of Gambling(Maisir)
#5 Prohibition of Impure
Commodities
Efects of Exposure due to Systematic
and Unsystematic risks
Monitoring
Risk Mitigation
Pricing
Position
Risk premium Take
Security
Diligence
Credit Scoring
PD, LGPD
& Due
Business Plans
Cash Flows
Appraisal
Management Process
Islamic Bank Risk
Risk Management
Impact on Firm
Risk
Risk
Prevention/Reduction/ Risk Transfer
Avoidance Mitigation
Insurance
Derivatives
Islamic
Banking
Shariah Commercial
Aspects Aspects
Shariah Business
Compliance Strategy &
(Products) Profitability
Risk &
Corporate Capital
Governance Managemen
t
AMLA
Failures of Risk Management
Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM)
Enron
WorldCom
Global Crossing
Parmalat
Lehman
Morgan Stanley
AIG
Bears & Stearn
Northernrock
Washington Mutual
More coming soon subprime world crisis
Islamic Banks Average Balance
Sheet
Asset Liability
Cash Wadiah Dhamanah
Current Account
BBA Home Financing Wadiah Dhamanah
Savings Account
AITAB Car Financing Restricted Mudarabah
Account
Bay al-Inah Personal Unrestricted Mudarabah
Financing Account
Enterprise Financing
Government Islamic Commodity Murabahah
Securities Negotiable Islamic
Certificate of Deposits
Sukuk
Fixed Assets Shareholders Capital
Income Statement
Reward comes with Risk
Islamic Banking
Islami
c
Banki
Shariah
Risk
ng Liquidity
Risk Risk
Displace Operatio
Commercial nal Risk
Risk
Peculiar Risks
Common Risks 1. Rate of
1. Credit risk return risk Total Risks
2. Market riks 2. Displaced faced by
commercial Islamic Banks
3.Operational
risk risk
3.Shariah risk
Comm
on Peculiar Risks
Risks
Profit
Equalization
Reserve
Displaced
Commercial
Risk
Rate of Return
Risk
Market Risk
(Negative Income gap)
SHARIAH RISK
Default
Credit Risk
Risk
Banking
Trading Book
Book
Eg. Sukuk
Eg. BBA
Risks in BBA
Financing
Expected
Unexpect
Loss
ed Loss
(Covered Total Loss
(Covered
by banks
by
provisions
capital)
)
Rising
Loss Non- Financia
Reduce Capital
due Performi Bank l
Earning Depletio
Credit ng Failure Instabili
s n
Risk Financin ty
g
Credit Risk Management
Adverse selection and moral hazard
Moral hazard exists because borrowers
may have incentive to engage in
activities that are undesirable from
lenders point of view
In such situations, it is more likely that
the lender will be subject to the hazard
of default
Banks have to overcome the adverse
selection and moral hazard problem that
make loan defaults more likely.
Credit Risk Management
This is done by
Screening
Monitoring & enforcing restrictive
covenants
Establishment of long term
customer relationships
Loan commitment
Specialized lending
Collateral and compensating
balance requirements
Credit rationing
Total Loss
Expected Unexpected
Loss Loss
EAGD = $400m
Expected
Loss (EL)
Banki
Risk-
Premiu
ng Overhe
ads
ms
Produ
cts
Statuto
ry
margin
s
Banks contractual loan rate is equal to the:
a. cost of deposits (rd),
b. operating costs (c),
c. Statutory profit margin (p) and
d. a risk premium.
rt = re
Now given Salims 20% probability of
default, which is assumed to cause the
bank a 10% loss (rd), [also known as loss
rate given default LRGD in a BBA portfolio]
the expected rate of return (rc) and
contractual profit rate are given below:
Computing the Contractual profit rate (rc) on a Risky BBA
rt = rd + c + p
Profit-rate risk
Rate-Sensitivity of Islamic
Banking Products
Impact on Earnings
Market risk
Risk measurement
in Banking Portfolio
Banking Book
Mortage Trading Book
Hire Purchase Bonds
Corporate
Bonds
Earning at Risk
Value at Risk
Income Gap Analysis
Capital $100m
GAP = $50m - $1000m = -
$950m
FRA RSL
1. BBA $700m 1. WAD $200m
2.AITAB$400m 2. PSIA $800m
3. Tawaruq $100m
Total $1200m Total $1000m
RSA RSL
1. Mudarabah $50m 3. WAD & PSIA $1000
GAP = -$950 GAP = -$950
If profit rate decreases If profit rate increases
by 1%, then net by 1%, then net
income will increase income will fall by (-
by (-$950m x 0.01) $950m x 0.01) =
= $9.5m $9.5m.
To make GAP = 0
Increase RSA
Decrease RSL
Bank A Bank B
Floating rate@Loan
BLR +1 @Loan
Bank A expects interest rate to increase
Bank B expects interest rate to fall
Actual thing: interest rate increases
Loan = $100m
1. Fixed Interest payment = 0.1 x $100m = $10
2. Floating interest payment = 0.12 x $100 = $12 million
3. Bank B pays Bank A $2 million.
4. No exchange of notional loan amount between Bank A and Bank B.
Profit Rate Swap (PRS)
Fixed rate@BBA
10% @ BBA
Bank A Bank B
Floating rate@BBA
BLR +1 @ BBA
Bank A expects interest rate to increase
Bank B expects interest rate to fall
Actual thing: interest rate increases
Loan = $100m
1. Fixed profit-rate payment = 0.1 x $100m = $10
2. Floating profit rate payment = 0.12 x $100 = $12 million
3. Bank B pays Bank A $2 million.
4. No exchange of notional BBA amount between Bank A and Bank B.
Profit Rate Swap (PRS)
Stage 1 Sells asset in cash ie. notional
Bank A Bank B
Bank A Bank B
Profit Rate Swap (PRS)
Stage 2 Sells asset @notional + floating rate (credit)
Bank A Bank B
Displaced
Commercial
Risk
Rate of Return
Risk
Market Risk
(Negative Income gap)
Commercial displacement risk
(DCR)
Deposits
Expected rate of return < realized rate of
return
Customers may switch from Islamic
deposits to conventional deposits
To prevent deposit migration, Islamic bank
uses its own reserves to top up the deficit.
Total earning/profit declines.
Gap Analysis
Gap = RSA RSL
Positive Gap: RSA > RSL
Positive Gap: (RSA/RSL) > 1
Negative Gap: RSA < RSL
Negative Gap: (RSA/RSL) < 1
Commodity Murabaha
Fixed rate Deposits
NICD
Capital
Financing
Musharakah Variabale Rate
Mudarabah Assets
BBA
Fixed Rate Assets
AITAB
Capital
Islamic Banking Realities:
Negative Gap Asset-Liability
RSA < RSL
Fixed Rate
Deposits
Fixed Rate
Assets Variable Rate
Deposits
(RSL)
Variable Rate Assets
(RSA)
BBA Intensive Islamic Banks
Most liabilities
(Wadiah&Mudarabah) are RSLs.
Islamic bank faces Negative Gap ;
RSA < RSL
Reserve
Amount appropriated out of total income to main an
acceptable level of return on Islamic deposits.
Serve to smoothen return on Islamic deposits (RoID).
Equalization
Increase PER provisions when RoID not competitive.
Profit
Risk
Potential loss that occurs when Shareholders Funds are
Commercial
utilized to smoothen rate of return on Islamic deposits. nt
Displaceme
Potential loss arising from loss of deposits
Gap/Asset-Liability Mismatches
Return Risk
Rate of Islamic deposits < deposit interest rate
Rd < id
Rate of
Actual rate of return < indicated/expected rate of return
Implication of Negative Gap:
Example:
Profit = ($100m x 0.07) ($100 x 0.03)
= $7m - $3m = $4m
When market interest rates go up, what can happen to the
bank?
The bank cannot raise then profit rate to accommodate
prevailing cost of fund. If it does, the murabaha contract
turns invalid.
The bank will lose deposits when Islamic deposit rate (IDR)<
conventional interest rates (CII).
When it losses deposits and forced to acquire money market
funds at a higher cost, the bank earning drops. This is
known as the Displaced Commercial Risk (DCR).
To mitigate DCR, the Profit Equalization Reserve (PER) was
instituted.
PER serves to fill the gap between IDR and CII. Or the
expcted rate of return and the realized rate of return.
Liquidity Risk
Funding liquidity risk a banks inability to
mobilize deposits to satisfy withdrawals.
Also referring to deposit concentration risk.
Eg.
LIQUIDITY RISK
Asset Deposit
Liquidity Liquidity
Risk Risk
Overdependence on
Unable to execute Corporate Deposits .
transactions at the
prevailing market price Overall cost of deposits
because there is no increases since
market appetite for the corporates always
product. demand higher rate of
deposits on GIA.
AQAD
Principles
LEGAL/CONTRACT
MAQASID DOCUMENTATION
Benefits vs disbenefits Protection of Rights
FINANCIAL
REPORTING
AAOIFI/IFSB/IFRS
Shariah Compliant
Parameters
Aqad-based Contract-based
Maqasid al-Shariah (purpose of the Law)
impact on society
Financial Reporting actual strength and
performance of companies
Legal documentation identification and
recognition of rights and obligations of
contracting parties.
Approved Islamic Finance
Products
BBA Home Financing
Bay Inah Home Financing
Bay Inah Personal
Financing/Overdraft/credit card
Tawaruk munazam personal financing
Commodity murabaha
Ijarah thumma al-bay
Bai-bithaman Ajil Islamic Debt
Securities (BAIDS)
Islamic
Discounted Bay al-dayn MuNif
Sukuk Ijarah
Sukuk Musharakah Bonds
Challenging issues in AQAD-based
Islamic Finance Products
Benchmaking profit rate against interest rate
(LIBOR,KLIBOR).
Profit Equalization Reserve (PER) displaced
commercial risk
Sale with condition to buyback at
predetermined price between two and three
parties.
Profit generated over installment payments
time value of money
Penalties on delayed payments
Benchmaking sukuk rates against LIBOR
Musharakah with Purchase undertakings
fixed profit to one party only.
Ijarah Sukuk - Sale with repurchase
agreement at par value and not mark-to
market
Ijarah Sukuk Ownership of asset by SPV
Profit-rate swaps speculation or gambling?
#1 AQAD Method
Aqad
Transfer of
Buyer & Ownership Price set on
Seller from Buyer Property the spot
to Seller
Contract of Sale
Example: Murabaha/BBA Sale
Mudarat Manfaat
Sins Profits
Gambling
& Liqour
Muda Manfa
rat at
Riba
Muda Manfa
rat at
Al-Bay
Mudar Manfa
at? at?
Financing
BBA
Mudar Manfa
at? at?
Plain
BBA
Mudarat >
Manfaat
HARAM
Mudarat <
Manfaat
HALAL
Downside (Madarrah) of Credit-
Financing
MACRO MICRO
MACRO MICRO
Assets Liabilities
FIXED ASSET
1. BBA asset
15 October 2008
Assets Liabilities
CURRENT ASSET
2. BBA Receivables
High Court Judge Datuk Abdul Wahab Patail says that the
sale element in BBA sale is not a bona fide sale (Mayban Finance vs Taman Jaya)
High Court Judge Datuk Abdul Wahab Patail says that the
sale element in BBA sale is not a bona fide sale
AQAD
Principles
LEGAL/CONTRACT
MAQASID DOCUMENTATION
Benefits vs disbenefits Protection of Rights
FINANCIAL
REPORTING
AAOIFI/IFSB/IFRS
Risk Measurement
Credit risk banking book
Credit scoring, Stress Testing, non-
performing financing (NPF)
Market risk trading book
VaR
Market risk banking book
Deposit-Asset mismatch,Gap, Duration
models
VaR: a measure for market risk
Market Risk:Trading Book
Value at Risk (VaR)
Bank purchases securities for both holding
and trading.
For holding, the securities are recorded in
the banking book. Potential loss in the
banking book is measured by Earning at
Risk (EAR)
For trading, the securities are recorded in
the trading book. Potential loss in the
trading book is measured by Value at Risk
(VaR)
Bond Trading
Bond Price = Coupon / interest rates
Price = $1000 per unit
i= 10%
Coupon = $100
$1000 = $100/0.1
An investors is deciding whether to purchase bond or not.
He will only buy bond in order to make capital gain. Thus, he
must buy low and sell high.
If he expects, interest rate to increase, he will not buy the
bond. This is because the bond price will fall and he losses out.
Example:
Buy at $1000. When interest rate increases to 20%, bond price
will fall; $500 = $100/0.2. He buys at $1000 per unit and now
the bond market value at $500. Loss = $500.
VaR what is the maximum loss the investor can absorb?
Bond Trading
Bond Price = Coupon / interest rates
Price = $1000 per unit
i= 10%
Coupon = $100
$1000 = $100/0.1
An investors is deciding whether to purchase bond or not.
He will only buy bond in order to make capital gain. Thus, he
must buy low and sell high.
If he expects interest rate to fall, he will buy the bond. This is
because he will make profit since the bond price now
increases. Example.
$1000 = $100/0.1. When interest rate indeed fall down, say
to 5%, bond price will increase to $2000. He will make a
capital gain of $1000.
$2000 = $100/0.05.
VaR
The senior management is told that
there is 1 in 100, say, chance of losing X
dollars over the holding period.
It means that there is a 1% chance that
the bank will lose $50 million over 1
year.
Var = $50m at 95% confidence interval
implies that there a 5% possibility that
the bank may lose $50m.
VaR
A VAR statistic has three components:
1. a time period,
2. a confidence level and
3. a loss amount (or loss percentage).
The
Variance- Monte Carlo
historical
covariance simulation
simulation
P&L
Capital $50b $48b $40b $35b
Base
RWA
RWCR 15% 13% 11% 9%
NPF 7% 8% 9% 11%
Stress Test
Worse Slow
case capita
High Low
risk l
NPL Profit
factor growt
s h
Risk-Factors
GDP
CPI
BLR
Unemployment rate
Retail Index
Property Index
Sensiti
vity
tests
Stre
ss
Test
Scenari
o tests
Sensitivity Tests
Instead of doing financial projection on a "best estimate"
basis, a company may do stress testing on capital, NPF
etc. where they look at how robust a financial instrument
is in certain crashes. They may test the instrument
under, for example, the following stresses:
What happens if the market crashes by more than x%
this year?
What happens if interest rates go up by at least y%?
What if half the instruments in the portfolio terminate
their contacts in the 5th year?
What happens if oil prices rise by 200%?
Asses the
impact of large
movements in
financial Example
variables on 10% drop on the
Sensitivity test portfolio stock market
without indexes
specifying the
reasons for
such
movements
Eg. Large US stock
Constructed in the market decline
light of historical 1987, Asian
Scenario
events or in the financial crises
Tests contexts of a 1997, Russion
specific portfolio default 1998,
September 11 2001
Stress Test : How can changes in economic
fundamentals afect banks capital?
Changes
in
interest
rates
Changes
in Equity
prices
Stress Test Credit Risk
The
Baselin
e case
Stress
Test
Credit
Risk
2% 1%
increas increas
e in e in
NPL NPL
Adverse
macroecon Bank Credit
omic Failure Crunch
scenarios
Islamic
Banking
Bank Negara
Shariah Fiqh
AAOIFI
Supervisory Academy
Board
Regulatory Framework
Islamic
banking
Islamic
Financial
Basel II
Service
Board
Basel II
Minimum
Supervisory Market
Capital
Review Discipline
Requirement
1. Standardized
Based
Approach
2. Internal
Based Rating
Approach
Basel II
The objective of Basel II is to protect depositors fund through an
international standard concerning how much capital banks need to put
aside to guard against losses arising from exposures to risks. This is
done by establishing rigorous risk and capital management
requirements designed to see that the bank holds sufficient capital
reserves appropriate to the risk it is carrying through its lending and
investment practices. Hence, the more the bank is exposed to risk, the
greater is the amount of capital the bank needed to back up the assets.
The three pillars if Basel II is shown in the following diagram:
3 Pillars of Basel II
Minimum capital Requirement
Supervisory Review
Market Discipline
Thus, bank must hold sufficient
capital as a back up to the amount
of money they owe depositors
Loss due to default afects Banks
capital
Insufficient banks capital leads to
bank runs and foreclosure financial
instability.
The objective of Basel is to protect
the depositors since deposits
mobilization is based on creditor-
debtor contract. Basel II
Risk-
Risk weight assets are the sum of Weights
asset subject to market, credit
and operational risk.
Total
CAR = Total Capital / (Credit risk Capital
+ Market risk + Operational Risk)
Ratio
Capital Adequacy Ratio
(minimum = 8%)
Basel II
Pillar 1: Capital Requirement
The first pillar deals with maintenance of regulatory capital calculated for three
major components of risk that a bank faces:
1. credit risk potential loss arising from non-performing loans and bad debts
2.operational risk potential loss arising from system and human error in running
banking operation
3. market risk. potential loss caused by market volatilities that may erode value of
investment in securities.
4. The credit risk component can be calculated in three diferent ways of varying
degree of sophistication, namely:
Commercial
Banks
Standardized
Internal Rating
Rating Based
Based Banks
Banks
RC =
Note Risk weight also known as conversion factor.
Risk-weights set by external rating institutions and regulators.
Islamic Bank Under Basel 2: Higher
Capital Requirement
Assets Amount Riskweights
RWassets
Murabaha $600m 50% $300
AITAB $300m 50% $150
Personal F$200m 100% $200
Sukuk $100m 50% $ 50
TOTAL $1200 $700
Less
(1-) (Credit and Market Risk
Weighted Asset funded by PSIA)
Less
()(proportional of Credit and
Market Risk Weighted Assets funded by
PSIA in the form of PER)]
Islamic Bank with Musharakah financing
under Basel 2: Higher Capital
Requirement
Assets Amount Riskweights
RWassets
Murabaha $500m 50% $250
AITAB $300m 50% $150
Personal F$200m 100% $200
Sukuk $100m 50% $ 50
Musharakah $100m 250%
$250
TOTAL $1200 $900
Capital ratio = (Regulated Capital /( RWA [1-]RWA funded by PSIA [] RWA funded by PSIA
as PER)
1.= 30%
2.(1-) = 70%
3.RWA funded by PSIA = $250m (musharaka)
4.RWA as PER = $2m (by assumption)
RWA = [($500m x 0.5) + ($300m x 0.5) + ($200m x 1.00) + ($100 x 0.5) + ($100 x
2.5)]
= [$250m + $150m +$200m + $70m + $250] - (0.7)($250) (0.3)($2) = $900m -
$175m - $0.6m = $724.4m
1. GENERAL REQUIREMENT
Principle 1.0 : IIFS shall have in place a comprehensive risk
management and reporting process, including
2. CREDIT RISK
Principle 2.1 : IIFS shall have in place a strategy for
financing, using various instruments in compliance
with Shariah, whereby it recognises the potential
credit exposure that may arise at diferent stages
of the various financing agreements.
IFSB GP RISK MANAGEMENT
CREDIT RISK
Principle 2.2 :
Sets out a common structure for the assessment of Islamic Institutions Offering
Financial Services (IIFS) capital adequacy requirements, which will support
transparency and consistent methodology for all IIFS.
IIFS are required to use the substance of the Shariah rules and
principles governing the contracts to form the basis for an
appropriate treatment in deriving their minimum capital
adequacy requirements.
Until adequate historical data are available, the IFSB employs Basels
risk weights.
IFSBS CAPITAL ADEQUACY STANDARDS
MARKET RISK
Apart from market risk exposures arising from equity, foreign
in sukuk and inventory risk, which results from IIFS holding assets
applicable.
OPERATIONAL RISKS
higher than 15% as they deem fit to cater for the Shariah
noncompliance risk of a particular IIFS.
IFSBS GUIDING PRINCIPLES ON
CORPORATE GOVERNANCE
Principle 1.2
Principle 3.2 : IIFS shall comply with the Shariah rules and
principles as expressed in the rulings of the
IIFSs Shariah scholars. The IIFS shall make
these rulings available to the public
IFSBS GUIDING PRINCIPLES ON
CORPORATE GOVERNANCE