Introduction and Applications

The World Bank

 HDM-III International
Collaboration
Collaborative international studies
1969 - 1995

World Bank

MIT, LCPC, TRRL, UNDP

Governments of Kenya, Brazil,

Caribbean, India

$20+ million data collection in

4 field studies
 HDM-4 International
Collaboration
Sponsors
Overseas Development Administration (ODA)
Asian Development Bank (ADB)
Swedish National Road Administration (SNRA)
The World Bank (IBRD)

Steering Committee
(World Bank)
Other Technical
Contributors Secretariat Advisors
The University
of Birmingham

ODA ADB SNRA FICEM

The University N D Lea Int. SweRoad ICH (Chile)
of Birmingham IKRAM VTI Catholic Univ.
 Limitations of HDM-III
Vehicle and tire technology in the VOC studies
bears little resemblance to those of modern
vehicles
HDM-III does not consider:
Traffic congestion (prior to 1995)
Rigid pavements
Many types of flexible pavements
Pavement texture and skid resistance
Freeze-thaw conditions
Traffic safety
Environmental impacts
Software for DOS environment
HDM-4 Technical Improvements
Pavements
Wider range of flexible pavements
Rigid pavements
More maintenance types
Drainage effects
Freezing climates effects
Road Users
New vehicle types
Characteristics of Modern Vehicles
Non-motorized traffic
Congestion effects
Accidents
Emissions & Energy consumption
HDM-4 Software Improvements

Windows 95/98/NT Environment

Easy to use
Different levels of input data
Three Application Modules
Project Evaluation
Network Programme Evaluation
Network Strategic Planning Evaluation
Better interface with Pavement Management
Systems
 The HDM-4 Model
Analytical tool for engineering and
economic assessment of

- road investments and maintenance

- transport pricing and regulation

Physical and economic relationships derived

from extensive research on road deterioration,
the effects of maintenance activities, and
vehicle operation and user costs
 Road Agency Alternatives
Standards / Alternatives
Policies / Strategies
Norms / Options

- 4 cm overlay every 8 years

- 6 cm overlay every 15 years
- reseal the road and postpone the overlay
- reconstruct the road when IRI = 10
- do nothing

- grading every 180 days

- upgrade unpaved road to a paved standard
 Evaluation of
Alternatives
Economic evaluation

Technical evaluation

Institutional evaluation

Financial evaluation

Commercial evaluation

Social evaluation

Environmental evaluation
 Transport
Benefits
Reduce vehicle operating cost
Savings in time of passengers
and cargo
Reduction of accidents

Stimulate regional development

Increase the comfort and
convenience
Better national integration
National security
Greater self-sufficiency
Equal distribution of income
Prestige of the country
 The
1969-1971 Phase 1 -
HDM-II
Conceptual Framework
- MIT, TRRL
and
- First Prototype - LCPC
- The World Bank
1971-1975 Kenya Study - VOC Study - TRRL
HDM-
- Road Deterioration Study - Kenya
- The World Bank
- VOC Study
1977-1982 Caribbean Study

- VOC Study
III - TRRL
- Caribbean Countries
1977-1983 India Study

1975-1982 Brazil Study - VOCInitiativ

Study
- CRRI - New Delhi
- GEIPOT - Brazil
e
- Road Deterioration Study - United Nations
- The World Bank
- Texas Research
1981-1987 Final Phase - Modeling - The World Bank
1987 HDM-III Publications - Research Documentation - The World Bank
1989 HDM-III Software - PC Computer software - The World Bank
1995 HDM System - Congestion, HDM Manager - The World Bank
 The
Fortran HDM
HDM-I Compute
Clipper / DOS
1970 r
HDM Manager 1.0
Mainframe

HDM-II Programs
1991
Windows
1975
HDM Manager 2.0 95/98/NT
HDM-III 1993
1985 HDM-4
HDM Manager 3.0 2000
1995
HDM-III
PC 1989
HDM Manager 3.2
1999
HDM-Q
Limited Distribution
PC 1995
 The
Beginn
More than 10,000 million dollars are spent on the
highway sector each year ing,
in developing countries.
The cost borne by the road-using public for vehicle
operation are typically 1969
8 to 10 times greater
In Europe and North America:
- high traffic volumes
- high values attached to travel time savings
- relatively abundant capital resources
In developing countries:
- traffic levels often much lower
- values given to travel time savings are far lower
- acute shortage of financial resources
 Pavement
Management
Condition-responsive/financial approach
physical standards are set in relation to:
Approaches
a) perceived technical requirements, b) acceptable
service levels, and c) received budget

Crisis-oriented approach
highway facilities are operated with little or no
maintenance until obstructive failure occurs that
needs extensive restoration and reconstruction work

Technical-economic efficiency approach

functional and technical standards are selected to
minimize total road transport costs to society.
 Technical-economic
Efficiency
Condition
12

10
Condition Index Rating
8

6
Current
Condition Ride m/km Composed
4 Distress % 90 Poor Index
2 Rut mm Overall
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Structural # Index
Year
Safety #
Condition
12
Terminal Life
- Current Condition Remaining
10

6
- Deterioration Prediction Service Life
4

2
R.L.
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Year
Benefits to Society
Condition Net present Value (at 12%)
12 120

100
10

8
- Current Condition 80

6
- Deterioration Prediction 60

4
- Maintenance Effects 40

2 - Vehicle Operating Costs 20

0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Year Agency Costs (at 12%)
 Total Society
Costs
= ROAD AGENCY COSTS
Construction
Maintenance

+ ROAD USER COSTS

Vehicle operation
Passenger and cargo
time
Accidents
 Composition of Total Society
Costs
CONSTRUCTION MAINTENANCE
- Pavement - Routine
- Structures - Pavement
- Furniture - Structures
- Formation
- Land

SYSTEM
OPERATION
- Traffic mgt.
- Safety
ROAD USERS - Management
- Fuel, lubricants
- Maintenance EXTERNAL
- Depreciation - Accidents
- Time - Pollution
- Accidents - Access
- Production
 Total
Society
Costs
Total Society Costs

Road User Costs

Road Agency Costs

Improve Standard
Minimizing Consumption
of Resources
Infrastructure

Road Users

Road Agency

liters
hours
m3
Consumption of Resources
X
Unit Costs
=
Total Society Costs
 Financial &
Economic Unit
Financial Prices
Costs
Do not reflect the
real scarcity value
Market Prices of the inputs
Economic Prices
Shadow Prices
Social Prices Developing Countries
- Government Controls
Taxes
Subsidies
Regulations
- Rapid Inflation
- Overvaluation of Domestic
Currency
 Road User Costs
Model
Road Driver,
Geometry, Traffic
Condition Flow

Vehicle
Characteristics

SPEED

Fuel & Lubricants

COMPSUMPTION

Tire
Maintenance Parts & Labor
Crew Time
Depreciation & Interest
Passenger & cargo time
 Paved Road
Deterioration Model
Traffic,
Moisture, Loading
Temperature
Aging

Pavement
Materials,
Thickness

Cracking
Ravelling
Potholing
Rutting
Roughness
 Vehicle
Operating
VOC per vehicle-km ($)
2.00
1.80 Costs
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
2 6 9 13 16 20

Roughness (IRI)
Car Truck Articulated Truck
 Costs-shares Under Optimal
Maintenance
50 veh/day 300 veh/day 5000 veh/day
User Costs

User Costs
User Costs

Agency Costs
Agency Costs

Agency Costs
 Primary

Features of
Simulates deterioration and maintenance
HDM-4
of paved and unpaved roads, in physical
condition and quantities, for strategies
defined by the user

Simulates road user costs (speeds

and consumption of physical components)

Determines time-streams of road agency,

road user costs, and net benefits

Computes economic indicators

 HDM-4
Limitations
The model does not perform a network traffic assignment
The model does not internally costs environmental
impacts such as air or noise pollution
The model does not address urban conditions (start/stop)
The model does not evaluate cement blocks and
cobblestone pavements
 Important Uses
of HDM-4
Planning and Programming

Analytical support to justify funding

Forecasting financial and physical needs
for preserving road network

Optimal maintenance strategies

Economic thresholds for road
Technical Applications improvements

Tradeoffs between design and
maintenance
standards or options

Simulating type and extent of
deterioration

Road use cost and damage attribution, in
road transport pricing and taxation
(user charges, fuel tax, etc.)
Economic Applications
Optimal axle loading and configuration

Fleet modernization
 Planning
Medium- & long-term evaluation of options & strategies:
4-, 5-, 6- or 10-yrs
Outputs:
Program allocations by network & region (routine m., periodic
m, rehab., betterment, etc.) - approximate quantity, cost,
benefit
Outcome in performance
Major development schemes identified and preparation
scheduled
 Programmi
ng
Annual or 2-3-yr rolling program prepared for
each network, within imposed budget
allocations
Output:
individual projects identified in each program,
network & region
cost and benefit estimates
Network-Level Analysis
 Project
Preparation
Comparison of project-alternatives, economic
justification:
pre-feasibility study
feasibility study

Technical Standards
Definition of road agency norms and policies:
Levels of service
Recommended works
Trigger points
 HDM-4
Application
s
Project evaluation
Project formulation
Maintenance needs forecasting
Network program formulation
Network strategic planning
Technical standards
Vehicle policies
 Project
Evaluati
Current Policy
on of gravel is less
- Gravel resurfacing when
thickness
than 50mm
- Routine maintenance
- Grading every 90 day
A Gravel
Road
Proposed Project
- Upgrade the road to a paved
standard
- After the upgrading, routine
maintenance, patching 100% of
the potholes, and resealing
when damaged area > 20%
 Comparison of
Alternatives
Evaluation Period = 20 years
Discount rate = 12.00 %
Internal
Construction Road Net Rate of
Length Maintenance User Total Present Return
(km) Alt Costs Costs Costs Value (%)

100.0 BASE 2.71 26.7 29.4

PROJ 9.28 17.0 26.2 3.2 17.1

Is the project economically justified?

 Project
Formul
ation
- Grading every 180 days
-Grading every 90 days
- Grading every 60 days
- Grading every 30 days
- Grading every 15 days
A Gravel Road
- Grading every 7 days
- Upgrade in 2001
- Upgrade in 2002
- Upgrade in 2003
- Upgrade in 2004
 Project
Economi
6 15 Days c 7 Days
2004
Net Present Value at 12% 5 30 Days
4 Efficienc 2003
2002

3
y
60 Days 2001
2
1
0
90 Days
Frontier
-1
-2
-3
-4 180 Days
0 2 4 6 8 10
Present Value of Agency Costs at 12%

Which is the optimal strategy?

 Mainten
ance
- Routine Maintenance
Reconstruction when IRI > 11.0
Needs
- Routine Maintenance
Forecaswhen IRI > 11.0
Patching 100% of potholes
Reconstruction
- Routineting
Maintenance
Patching 100% of potholes
A Paved Road 12 mm Resealing when damage is > 30%
in Good Condition Reconstruction when IRI > 11.0
- Routine Maintenance
Patching 100% of potholes
4 cm overlay when IRI is > 4.0
- Routine Maintenance
Patching 100% of potholes
8 cm overlay when IRI is > 4.0
 Roughness
Progression
14

12
Roughness (IRI m/km)

10
BASE
8 P100
RE30
6 OS40
OD40
4

0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Year
 Efficiency
Frontier
120
Net present Value (at 12%) 4 cm 8 cm
100

12 mm
80
Patch
60

40

20

0
BASE
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Agency Costs (at 12%)

What will be the future maintenance needs?

 Network
Program
Formulat
- What are the resources
ion
needed to maintain the
network?
and
- How should the agency
Optimiza
allocate the resources
tion
needed for an optimal
maintenance program?
A Road Network
- What maintenance
program should be
implemented in case
of budgetary
constraints?
 Budgetary Constraints
A.C. G F P
L
M
H

A Road Network
Resource
Constraints

Strategy
without
Budget
Constraint
Optimal Strategy under Optimization
Budgetary Constraints Module
 Diagnostic
of the
Network
Roughness in 1998

< 3.5 IRI

28%

3.5 < IRI <

> 5.0 IRI 5.0
64% 8%
 Consequences
to Society
Society Net Benefits Present Value (Billion Rs)
250

200

150

100

50

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Periodic Expenditures (Billion Rs/year)

What are the consequences of budget constraints?

What is the recommended work program?
 Consequen
ces to the
Network
Scenario: 6 Billion Rs per year

100%
90% 8.5

Average Roughness (IRI)

80%
Network Condition (%)

7.5
70%
60% 6.5 Poor

50% Fair
5.5 Good
40%
Avg. IRI
30% 4.5
20%
3.5
10%
0% 2.5
1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Year 2004
 Consequen
ces to the
Users
Network Road User Costs (Billion Rs)
250

200 6 Billion
Rs per
150 Year
Case
100 Savings: Without
152 Billion Rs Project
50 Case

0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
 Definition of
a Budget
Level
Average Network Roughness (IRI)
Budget
Scenarios
(Rs B per year)

8 1.0

7 2.0

6
3.0
5
4.5
4
6.0
3

2
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
 Prioritized
Work
Program
Rough All Rut Total
From To Length Width ness Cracks Depth Traffic Road Cost NPV NPV/
Link City City Type (km) (m) (IRI) (%) (mm) (ADT) Class Solution B Rs B Rs Cost
52 Peshawar Jamrud AC 19 7.3 3.3 27.5 14 3657 P3AZ 02 - 1 0.01 0.46 31.46
58 Chichawatni
Sahiwal AC 86 7.3 1.5 26.7 6 4628 P3AZ 02 - 1 0.07 2.06 31.46
32 Shahdara Muridke AC 15 7.3 9.9 0.0 0 13994 P5DX 06 - 1 0.15 2.72 18.14
25 Khanewal Mian Channu AC 46 7.3 9.3 76.6 0 9754 P5DZ 12 - 1 0.50 7.29 14.59
3 Hala Sakrand ST 41 7.3 7.3 30.3 4 7040 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.43 5.37 12.40
5 Qazi AhmedMoro ST 56 7.3 7.7 47.9 4 8000 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.59 7.34 12.40
12 Panu Aqil Ghotki ST 28 7.3 7.8 32.1 3 8736 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.30 3.67 12.40
15 Daherki Ubaro ST 14 7.3 10.7 26.2 10 8832 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.15 1.84 12.40
16 Ubaro Sadiq Abad ST 41 7.3 8.3 41.8 8 8880 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.43 5.37 12.40
6 Moro Nowshero FerozST 25 7.3 8.6 32.6 7 7013 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.26 3.28 12.40
11 Rohri Panu Aqil ST 32 7.3 7.4 41.9 13 11101 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.34 4.19 12.40
13 Ghotki Mir Pur MatheloST 25 7.3 8.5 36.1 5 8074 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.26 3.28 12.40
 Technical
Standards
12
10
Net Present Value at 12%

8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
100 200 300 400
Traffic (ADT)

What is the optimal traffic threshold for paving?

 Vehicle
9000
Policies
Average Agency Costs ($/km/yr)
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0

10000
6000
1000

3000
300

Non-vehicle-related Vehicle-related Loading-related

How much road damage is caused by trucks?