Entin Hidayah
Prof. Dr. Ir. Nadjadji Anwar. MSc
Prof. Drs. Nur Iriawan, M.Kom. PhD
Dr. Ir. Edijatno
Development of rainfall-
runoff modeling has been
used by several other
countries as a significant
performance to improve
the model.
Carpenter and
Georgakakos' (2006), has
succeed for modeling
rainfall runoff with high
resolution rainfall data
input, has resulted in a
smaller model error.
Grati
Grati Flood
Flood Ngopak
Ngopak
Flood
Flood
The obstacle for Rainfall-Runoff
Modeling
manual Lack
Lack of
of
automatic
automatic
rain
rain
rain gauge
gauge
gauges are for
for high
high
spread on resolution
resolution
all of rainfall
rainfall in
in
catchment catchment
catchment
areas. area
area
It is difficult to apply
the continuous rainfall
runoff model with high
resolution
Rainfall
disaggregation
model from daily to
hourly
Modeling Process
MODEL STRUCTURE
DATA Seasonal auto-regression 1 Model
INPUT
Model verification
with Z is a high-level variables and k is the number of low-level variables with one
period at a higher level.
Filtering
Filtering is used to obtain a zero value when there
was no rain and one value when rain.
This concept uses the assumption of binary events,
where if the value that appears similar to the
parameter "a" then multiplied by zero, and others
are multiplied by one.
Filtering components are treated in the mu [i].
Terms used to generate a binary indicator function
can be written as follows.
Doodle of AR1 combined with Adjusting and filtering model
a b c
tau
Adjusting procedures
y[i] mu[i]
y1[i] are marked with 2
boxes loping.
sigma y24[i]
1. First box is a loping
err[i] e[i]
mua[i]
filtering[i]
for the generation of
hourly rainfall data,
abserr[i]
mae x[i]
2. Second box is
for(i IN (h-1)*24+1 : h*24) adjusting process
delta[h] za[h] from hourly to daily
zb[h] zc[h]
d[h]
for(h IN 1 : M)
Parameter Estimation
Table Summary results of the posterior of model parameters
nod MC
e mean sd error 2.50% median 97.50%
0.677 3.76E- 2.96E- 0.604
a 5 02 04 4 0.6778 0.7508
0.072 1.94E- 1.40E- 0.034
bPrior distributions
4 02 04 parameter
for each model 1 a, b,0.0722
and c are0.1107
based on
0.179of the
verification 1.95E- 0.141 model parameter and the
1.42E-a significant
model to obtain
csmallest 8MAE value. 02 04 8 0.1796 0.2181
Prior 0.436 and c used0.435
5.89E- a, b,4.56E-
to each parameter in the generation process is the
mae
same as a9normal distribution
04 06
(7.50) 9 0.4369 0.4381
The estimated parameters indicate that all the parameters at the position
between 2.50% and 97.50% have significant value that does not pass
through zero value.
With Monte Carlo parameter estimation gives an average value for a, b and
c, respectively, of 0.6775, 0.0724, and 0.1798
History model parameter
The evaluation of
Bayesian MCMC
simulation result
showed that the
generated data
has fastly mixing.
It means the
estimate process
can respond to
parameter value.
Kernel Density Parameter
The result was satisfying because the form of density was smooth.
The distribution pattern of parameters and residues show tend to
normal.
Convergence of algorithm
Density pattern of results validating the model consists of
Dynamic Trace plot, Running Quantil and Autocorrelation model for
the parameters a, b, and c.
plot of dynamic
traces forms show
irregular
Running Quantils
show straight line
between upper
Quantil and lower
Quantil.
Autocorrelations
informs that the
result of model
simulation had
fulfilled Markov
chains characteristic
where the generated
By 10.000 iteration, they indicated data would only
that the algorithm has reached influence by one
prior occurrence.
Model evaluation
Mean Absolute Error =
Where,
= simulation value
= observation value
n = observation total
Thank You