Lecture-1
According to Shapiro
Macro Economics deals with the
functioning of the economy as a Whole
Macroeconomics deals with the economy
as a whole. It studies the behaviour of
economic aggregates such as aggregate
income, consumption, investment, and the
overall level of prices.
Major Concerns of Macro Economics
Aggregate Demand
Aggregate Supply
Saving
Inflation/Deflation
Economic growth
Unemployment
Trade Cycle
International Trade
Economic Planning (Fiscal policy/Monetary
Policy)
Importance of Macro
Economics
It explains the working of the economy as
a whole.
It examines the aggregate behaviour of
Macro Economics entities like firms,
households
and the government.
It is very useful to the planner for
preparing economic plans for the country's
development.
It is helpful in international comparison.
Its knowledge is indispensable for the
policy-makers for formulating macro-
economic policies such as monetary policy,
fiscal policy, industrial policy, exchange
rate policy, income policy, etc.
Nominal GDP
GDP Deflator = x100
Real GDP deflator
50
Expenditure method
51
Expenditure method
Y = C + I + G +(X-M)
53
Difficulties in the computation
of National Income
In backward economies like India, particularly in the rural sector, the
cultivators and small producers are illiterate and they do not keep books of
account. This is a serious difficulty in the calculation of national income
54
Uses of National Income Data
Difference between GDP and GNP indicates the contribution of net income
earned abroad
Necessary for Economic planning: useful aid in judging which sectors should
be given more emphasis
A 3,ooo $2
B 6,000 $3
C 8,000 $4
In the current year the production and
price data are given as follows
Fruit Quantity Price
A 4,000 $3
B 14,000 $2
C 32,000 $4
Find the nominal GDP and real GDP.
Find the GDP deflator for the current year
and the base year. By what percentage
does the price level change from base
year to current year?
Circular Flow of Income
Learning Objectives
Financial
Households Savings Market Investment Firms
(S) (I)
Goods and
Services (O)
Consumption
expenditure
(C)
71
Learning Objective
72
Classical Theory
73
Absence of Involuntary
Unemployment
Voluntary unemployment
Frictional unemployment
Seasonal unemployment
Technical unemployment
Disguised unemployment
74
Questions
75
The classical macro model (Assumpations)
Laissez faire policy
Equality between saving and investment
Closed economy
Flexibility of prices, wage and rate of interest.
Rational man
Perfect competition
Constant technology
Law of diminishing returns
76
The real economy.
78
The supply side of the real sector
factors of production:
K = capital,
tools, machines, and structures used in production
L = labor,
the physical and mental efforts of workers
N = land,
All non-renewable resources
79
available technology: the form of the production
Determination of income and
employment
According to classical economists income
and employment is determined by
production function and equilibrium of
demand for and supply of labor.
80
The production function and its
properties:
represented as Y = F (K, L), N being fixed is
ignored
shows how much output (Y ) the economy can
produce from K units of capital and L units of
labor.
F reflects the economys level of technology
technological progress affects F.
In short period capital and technology remains
constant and employment can be increased by
increasing labor only and the result is
diminishing returns to output.
81
Diminishing marginal returns and the
production function
Y
output
F (K ,L)
MP
1 L As more labor
MP is added, MPL
1 L
Slope of the
MP
L production function
1 equals MPL
L
labo
r 82
Reasons for the diminishing Returns
1. Technology is given.
2. The economys supplies of capital and labor are
fixed at
K K and LL
Y F (K , L)
83
How factor prices are determined - labor
84
Demand for labor
85
Supply of labor
86
MPL and the demand for labor the
demand curve is the same as the MPL
curve
Units of
output Each
Each firm
firm hires
hires
labor
labor
up
up to
to the
the point
point
where
where MPL
MPL = = W/P
W/P
Real
wag
e
MPL,
Labor
demand
Units of labor,
Quantity of L
labor
demanded
87
Says law of market
88
Flexibility of wages
(Equilibrium in factor market)
Demand and supply of labor through
wage rate determines the equilibrium
89
Flexibility in Rate of interest
and Equilibrium in money
market
I=f(r)
S=f(r)
In money market
S=I
(I-investment, S-Saving)
in this way there is equilibrium in the
aggregate demand and supply.
90
Flexibility of prices level or
equilibrium in money market
Aggregate demand=Aggregate supply
MV=PT
M-money supply
V-velocity of money
P-price level
T-trade transactions
P=f(Money supply)
91
Questions
92
Points to remember in
Classical Model
Y=f(Employment)
Demand for labor=(w/p)
Supply of labor =(w/p)
S=f(r)
I= f(r)
MV=PT
93
Criticism
95
The General Theory
96
Keynesian Thought on income,
output and employment
According to Keynes- there is not always
full employment in a developed economy
as a matter of fact there can be
unemployment in the economy.
The main reason for the unemployment is
the is deficiency of aggregate demand.
Unemployment can be removed by
increasing the aggregate demand in the
economy.
97
According to classical thought the
problem of unemployment can be solve
by lowering the wage rate,
According to Keynes the problem of
unemployment can be solved by
increasing the aggregate demand.
98
Assumptions or postulates of
Keynesian Model
Closed economy
Diminishing marginal productivity
Labor is the only factor of production
No time lag
Saving and investment
Two sector model of the goods market in
the economy (no government sector, no
foreign trade).
99
100
2. Says Law cannot hold. (Supply creates
its own demand.)
a) If spending constraints are in effect, then
there will be a difference between
(unlimited) demand and effective
demand.
b) Actual (effective) demand will usually be
deficient to purchase total output.
c) Effective Demand(AD=AS)
d) Aggregate Demand
e) Aggregate Supply 101
Therefore, consumption depends primarily upon income,
not interest rates.
C C(r), but rather C = C(Y)
People dont change their standard of living simply because the
interest rate changes a few points.
The fundamental psychological law, upon which we are entitled to
depend with great confidence . . . is that men are disposed, as a rule
and on average, to increase their consumption as their income
increases, but not by as much as the increase in their income
102
The Consumption Function: the key to Keynes
Consumption depends on the level of DISPOSABLE INCOME (disposable
personal income = income - taxes = Y - T)
Some consumption is autonomous (= independent of DPI): it may
depend on other factors such as wealth or stock values. (even at zero
income, Bill Gates would consume something)
The consumption function proposed by Keynes is:
C = C0 + Cy ( Y - T)
C0 = Autonomous consumption
103
Questions
Consumption Function
Marginal Propensity to consume
Average Propensity to consume
104
The Keynesian system: Planned and actual
investment
The first two are consciously planned (although plans can change, and
typically do during a recession);
inventory investment can be unplanned -- if a store fails to sell what it had
expected to, it winds up with more inventory than it had expected.
Stores with unplanned inventory investment will cut back on orders --
resulting in reduced production at the factory, layoffs and recession.
105
The same can be explained with the help of regression line.
The Keynesian model: National income identity and equilibrium
The National income identity is:
Y = C + I + G + NX
The Keynesian equilibrium equation is:
Y = C0 + Cy ( Y - T) + Ip + G + NX
106
State of Equilibrium
107
Keynes model in nutshell
108
Questions
109
Learning Outcome
110
Consumption and
Investment
LEARNING OBJECTIVE
Definition of 'Autonomous
Consumption
C
MPC
Y
134
FEATURES OF PROPENSITY TO
CONSUME
Psychological concept
Unequal propensity to consume
Income and employment
depend on propensity to
consume
Consumption in the short run
Long run consumption function
()Farsightedness-future is uncertain
()Economic independence
()Occupational motive
()Miserliness- niggardly by nature
()Status in the society
()Precautionary motive
Gottheil - Principles of Economics, 4e 137
(ii) Business factors
Extension of business
Liquidity preference
Modernization-save more to install new
machines
C
MPS 1
Y
APC+APS=1
Meaning
Different types of investment
Factors affecting investment
Concept of multiplier
Types of multiplier
Uses of multiplier
Limitations of multiplier
Learning outcome
Induced investment
Autonomous investment
Gross and Net investment
Financial and real investment
Planned and unplanned investment
Autonomous Investment
Py1= SP (1+m)
SP- supply price, m= MEC, py prospective
yield
SP= Py1/ (1+m)
Py2= Py1( 1+m) {Py1= SP (1+m)}
Py2= SP( 1+m)2
SP= py2/ (1+m)2
SP= py1/ (1+m)+ py2/(1+m)2+.
SP= py/ (1+m)n
MEC and Investment
50 12%
100 10%
150 8%
200 6%
Relationship between MEC and
ROI
Relationship of MEC & ROI Effect on Investment
N1
N2 Total Employment
N1 Primary Employment
MPC
MPS
K = Y
I
Y=C+I
Y = C + I I = Y - C
K = Y
Y - C
Y 1
K= Y 1 - C
Y - C Y
Y Y
MPC = C K= 1
Y 1 - MPC
Relationship with MPS:
MPS = S C + S = C + I
Y => I = S
Y = C + I (Ag. Demand)
K= Y
S 1 1
S = MPS
Larger the MPC, Larger the
Multiplier
( direct relationship between MPC and
K)
Static Multiplier
Dynamic Multiplier
i. Forward Multiplier
Ii.Backward Multiplier
Importance of Multiplier
Income Generation
Full Employment
Public Investment
Trade Cycles
Inflation and deflation
State Intervention
Deficit finanicing
Leakages' of multiplier
Idle Saving
Imports
Debt cancellation
Purchase of old stocks
Hoarding
Taxes
High liquidity preference
Undistributed profits
Relevance of multiplier to
developing countries
Keynesian multiplier is based on
following assumption
Involuntary unemployment
Industrialized economy
Excess capacity in consumption goods
industries
Comparatively elastic supply of raw
material and working capital
quiz
Primary Functions:
Medium of Exchange
Measure of Value
Secondary Functions:
Standard of Deferred Payments
Store of Value
Functions of Money
Contingent Functions:
Basis of Credit Creation
Maximum Satisfaction
Distribution of National
Income
Increase in the Liquidity of
Capital
Bearer of option
QUESTIONS
Money can be defined as any
commodity that is generally
accepted as a _______________.
What are the four approaches
to money?
Chicago approach added
which factor to money?
What are the secondary
functions of money?
MONEY
CONCEPTS
CONCEPTS OF MONEY
Commodity Money:
Under this, the people used
commodities or animals as
money.
Demerits:
Commodities are not
homogeneous
Supply of commodities could be
abruptly change.
Hoarding was not possible
CONCEPTS OF MONEY
Metallic Money:
It was introduced to meet the
difficulties of commodity money.
Different metals, such as iron,
gold, brass, silver, copper, etc.
were used to make coins.
Demerits:
Supply of these coins could
not always be adjusted to
their demand.
CONCEPTS OF MONEY
Paper Money:
In past traders, used to deposit
their metallic money with money
lenders and obtain certificate of
deposit. These certificates were
used as money. Thus, this led to
the origin of paper money.
These days the paper money is
issued only by the Central Bank of
the country.
Initially, the paper money was
CONCEPTS OF MONEY
Paper Money:
Merits:
Not an expensive system of currency
Supply can easily be adjusted
according to the need
Easily transferrable
Demerits:
Always a possibility of excessive
supply of paper money which leads
to inflation in the economy and fall
in the value of the currency.
CONCEPTS OF MONEY
Bank Deposits:
There are three types of bank deposits:
Current Account Deposits
Saving Deposits
Time Deposits
Current A/C deposits are widely referred
to as demand deposits which are also
known as bank money and credit
money.
Conventional approach included only
demand deposits in the definition of
money but Chicago approach treats
CONCEPTS OF MONEY
Near Money:
Near money refers to those
promissory notes which can be
easily converted into money, but
can not be used as money to buy
goods and services.
Near money includes treasury bills,
bonds, securities, fixed deposits in
banks, insurance policies, etc.
Thus, compared to paper money
near money is less liquid.
FIAT PAPER MONEY
Fiat Paper Money:
Money Multiplier = M3 / M0
Monetization = M1 / GDP
Monetary Deepening = M3 / GDP
QUESTIONS
What is the precautionary
motive for demand of
money?
What is the transaction
motive for demand of
money?
What is the speculative
motive for demand of
money?
Thank
You
Inflation
Lecture Plan
Inflation
Causes of Inflation
Inflation and Decision Making
Measuring Inflation
Inflation and Employment
Control of Inflation
Objectives
To explore the realms of inflation and its
different frontiers.
To delve into concepts like wage price spiral,
hyperinflation and inflationary gap.
To understand various measures of inflation and
their role in decision making.
To analyze the reasons behind inflation, its
impact on the economy and the measures to
curb it.
Inflation
Coulborn: it is a state of too much money chasing too few
goods.
Two broad categories:
price inflation (generally called as inflation)
money inflation.
Money inflation is increase in the amount of currency in
circulation. Which may be due to:
Deficit financing : direct cause is printing of additional
currency on demand of the government to meet its
needs.
Additional money supply through foreign exchange
inflows in the form of capital, such as foreign direct
investment and foreign institutional investment, tourism
and other incomes from abroad.
Price inflation is a persistent increase in the general
price level or a persistent decline in the real income
of people, i.e. decline in value of money.
Concepts of Inflation
Headline Inflation: measure of the total inflation within an
economy
affected by the areas of the market which may experience
sudden inflationary spikes such as food or energy.
Hyperinflation: prices increase at such a speed that the value
of money erodes drastically
This is also known as galloping inflation or runaway inflation.
Stagflation: a typical situation when stagnation and inflation
coexist.
Disinflation: a process of keeping a check on price rise by
deliberate attempts.
Deflation: a state when prices fall persistently; just opposite to
inflation
Inflationary Gap (Keynes): Excess of anticipated expenditure
over available output at base price
When money income exceeds the supply of goods and
Wage Price Spiral
a) Excess reserves
2. Current rates?
1) Credit rationing
3) Moral Suasion
4) Direct Controls
Limitations and Effectiveness of
Monetary Policy:
2. Problems in Forecasting
Learning Objectives:
1. Meaning and scope of fiscal policy
2. Differentiate between financial
instruments and target variables
3. Kinds of fiscal policy
4. Fiscal policy and macroeconomic goals
The word fisc means state treasury and
fiscal policy refers to policy concerning
the use of state treasury or government
finances to achieve certain
macroeconomic goals.
Fiscal Instruments
2. Government expenditure
3. Taxation
4. Public borrowings
Target Variables
Variables which are sought to be changed
through fiscal instruments are:
Learning Outcomes:
1. Meaning and purpose of BOP
2. Accounting methods of BOP
3. Indias position in BOP
4. Factors responsible for imbalance in BOP
BOP is statement of economic
transactions of a country with the rest of
the world over a period of time.
1. Current transactions
2. Capital transactions
Factors Responsible for Imbalance in
BOP
1. Inflation
2. Business cycle
3. Structural changes
4. Short-term disequilibrium factors
?
1. What is BOP?
2. What is disequilibrium in BOP
3. What are the major causes of
disequilibrium in the BOP?