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Geographic Information Science

Geography 625
Intermediate
Geographic Information Science
Week 13: The Statistics of Fields

Instructor: Changshan Wu
Department of Geography
The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Fall 2006
University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Geographic Information Science

Outline

1. Introduction

2. Review of Regression

3. Trend Surface Analysis: Regression on Spatial


Coordinates

4. Statistical Interpolation: Kriging

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1. Introduction

Previous methods for interpolation use specific mathematical


functions (deterministic interpolation)

Problems
1) No environmental measurements can be made without error. It is ill-
advised to try to honor all the observed data without recognizing the
inherent variability

2) Deterministic methods assume that we know nothing about how the


variable being interpolated behaves spatially. However, the observed
control point data may provide useful information.

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1. Introduction

1) Trend surface analysis: specified functions are fitted to the


locational coordinates (x,y) of the control point data in an
attempt to approximate trends in field height (first order
effect)

2) Kriging: attempts to make optimum use of the underlying


phenomenon as a spatially continuous field of non-
independent random variables (second order effect)

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1. Introduction

Surface Trend Analysis (ArcGIS)


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1. Introduction

Kriging (ArcGIS)
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1. Introduction

Kriging (ArcGIS)
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2. Review of Regression
Simple linear regression y

Dependent variable: y
Independent variable: x
yi b0 b1 xi i
i yi y i yi b0 b1 xi

To obtain parameters b0 and b1,


the best-fit equation is the one
that minimizes the total square 0 x
error i2 for observed values of
xi and yi. University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
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2. Review of Regression

Solve the optimization problem

Minimize: ( y b b x )
2
i i 0 1 i
i i

y 2b y 2b x y
2
i 0 i 1 i i nb02 2b0b1 xi b12 xi2

i2
Lagrangian algorithm
i
0
b0
Any statistical software can
i
2
calculate these parameters (e.g.
i
0 SPSS, S-Plus, R, SAS)
b1
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3. Trend Surface Analysis


The trend of a surface is any
large-scale systematic change that
extends smoothly and predictably
across the region of interest.

It is an exploratory method to
give a rough idea of the spatial
pattern in a set of observations.

zi f ( si ) f ( xi , yi )
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3. Trend Surface Analysis

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3. Trend Surface Analysis

The coefficient of multiple correlation: R2

i 1 i
n
2
Sum of squared errors
R 1
2


n
i 1
( zi z ) 2
Sum of squared
differences from mean

Different function forms: higher order polynomial

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3. Trend Surface Analysis

Problems

1. It is not reasonable to assume that the phenomenon of


interest varies with the spatial coordinates in such a simple
way

2. The fitted surfaces do not pass exactly through all the


control points

3. Other than simple visualization of the pattern they appear


to display, the data are not used to help select this model.

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4. Kriging

Mathematical methods of interpolation (e.g. local spatial


average, IDW) determine the distance weighting function and
neighborhood definition based on expert knowledge, not from
the data

Trend surface analysis uses the sampling data, but it only


consider the first-order effect

Kriging estimates the choice of function, weights, and


neighborhood from the sampling data, and interpolate the data
with these choices.

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4. Kriging
Kriging is a statistical interpolation method that is optimal in
the sense that it makes best use of what can be inferred about
the spatial structure in the surface to be interpolated from an
analysis of the control point data
Methods used in the South African mining industry by David Krige
Theory of regionalized variables (Georges Matheron, 1960)
Statistic for Spatial Data (Noel A. C. Cressie 1993)

Three steps
1) Produce a description of the spatial variation in the sample control
point data
2) Summarizing the spatial variation by a regular mathematical function
3) Using this model to determine the interpolation weights
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4. Kriging
- Describing the spatial variation: the semi-variogram

Variogram cloud: a plot of a measure of height differences against


the distance dij between the control points for all possible pairs of
points.
Pij(d) = (zi-zj)2

P
4
8
2
10
0 2 d
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4. Kriging
- Describing the spatial variation: the semi-variogram
Example of variogram cloud

There is a trend such that


height differences increase
as the separation distance
increases

Indicating the farther apart


two control points are, the
greater is the likely
difference in their value.

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4. Kriging
- Describing the spatial variation: the semi-variogram

Spatial dependence can be described more concisely by the


experimental semivariogram function as follows

1
2 (d )
n(d ) d ij d
( z i z j ) 2

n(d) is the number of pair of points at separation d


is the estimated semi-variogram

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4. Kriging
- Describing the spatial variation: the semi-variogram

1
2 (d ) i j
n(d ) d ij d
( z z ) 2

This is the theoretical equation for variogram estimation


and it is not straightforward in applications

E.g. for a given distance d, it is more likely that there will


be no pair of observations at precisely that separation.

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4. Kriging
- Describing the spatial variation: the semi-variogram

In reality, variogram is estimated for different bands (or lags)


rather than continuously at all distances.
1 d / 2
2 (d ) i j ( z
n(d ) d ij d / 2
z ) 2

is the lag width


n(d) is the number of point pairs within (d- /2, d+ /2)

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4. Kriging
- Describing the spatial variation: the semi-variogram

a b c d e
a 0 1 1 3 2.5
1 0 2 2 3
a (10) Distance b
matrix c 1 2 0 3 1
b (12) c (8)
d 3 2 3 0 3

d (10) e (6) e 2.5 3 1 3 0

= 0.5 What is the value of (0.5)?


d = 0.5 What is the value of (1.5)?
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4. Kriging
- Describing the spatial variation: the semi-variogram

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4. Kriging
- Summarize the spatial variation by a regular
mathematical function

Having approximated the semivariograms by mean values at


a series of lags, the next step is to summarize the
experimental variogram using a mathematical function.

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4. Kriging
- Summarize the spatial variation by a regular
mathematical function

Nugget (c0): variance at


zero distance

Range (a): the distance at


which the semivariogram
levels off and beyond
which the semivariance is
constant

Sill (c0+c1): the constant


semivariance value
beyond the range

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4. Kriging
- Summarize the spatial variation by a regular
mathematical function

Mathematical Functions

Nugget model
Linear model
Spherical model
Exponential model
Power model
Gaussian model
Others

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4. Kriging
- Summarize the spatial variation by a regular
mathematical function

Nugget model: A constant variance model

Nugget = c0
(c0)

d
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4. Kriging
- Summarize the spatial variation by a regular
mathematical function

Linear model: Variances change linearly with the change of


distance

=d When d < a

a d
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4. Kriging
- Summarize the spatial variation by a regular
mathematical function
Spherical model starts from a nonzero variance (c0) and rise as
an elliptical arc to a maximum value (c0+c1) at distance a.

If d <= a then
3d d
3

(d ) c0 c1 0.5
2a a
If d > a then
(d ) c0 c1

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4. Kriging
- Summarize the spatial variation by a regular
mathematical function

Variogram model fitting methods

1) Interactive model fitting


2) Weighted least squares (R and Gstat)
3) Modified weighted least squares (ArcMap Geostatistics)
4) Others

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4. Kriging
- Summarize the spatial variation by a regular
mathematical function

Typical spatial profiles


and their associated
semivariograms

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4. Kriging
- Summarize the spatial variation by a regular
mathematical function

Problems with variogram estimation


1. The reliability of the calculated semivariance varies with the number
of point pairs used in their estimation
2. Spatial variation may be anisotropic (varies with directions), favoring
change in a particular direction
3. It assumes there is no systematic spatial change in the mean surface
height (first order effect)
4. The experimental semivariogram can fluctuate greatly from point to
point
5. Many functions are non-linear

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4. Kriging
- Use the model to determine interpolation weights by
Kriging

Assumptions

1) The surface has a constant mean, with no underlying trend

2) The surface is isotropic, having the same variation in each


direction

3) The semivariogram is a simple mathematical model with


some clearly defined properties

4) The same variogram applied over the entire area


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4. Kriging
- Use the model to determine interpolation weights by
Kriging

zs w1 z1 w2 z 2 ... wn z n

Minimize E{[
z s z s }
] 2

n n n
2 wi (d is ) wi w j (d ij )
i 1 i 1 j 1

Subject to: w1 w2 ... wn 1


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4. Kriging
- Use the model to determine interpolation weights by
Kriging

Solve the above equation

w1 (d11 ) w2 (d12 ) ... wn (d1n ) (d1s )


......
w1 (d n1 ) w2 (d n 2 ) ... wn (d nn ) (d ns )
w1 w2 .... wn 1

n+1 variables, n+1 linear equations


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4. Kriging
- Use the model to determine interpolation weights by
Kriging

(d ) 1
wa (d aa ) wb (d ab ) wc (d ac ) (d as )
a (10) wa (d ba ) wb (d bb ) wc (d bc ) (d bs )
3 b (8)
1 wa (d ca ) wb (d cb ) wc (d cc ) (d cs )
s 2 wa wb wc 1
2 4
c (8) What is the value of wa, wb, wc, and ?
What is the value of s?

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4. Kriging
- Use the model to determine interpolation weights by
Kriging

(d ) d if d <=2
(d ) 2 if d > 2
a (10)
3 b (8)
1
s 2 What is the value of wa, wb, wc, and ?
2 4 What is the value of s?
c (8) What is the value of s with IDW method?

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4. Kriging
- Use the model to determine interpolation weights by
Kriging

Software

ArcMap Geostatistics
R Package
IDRISI (G-Stat)
GSLIB

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4. Kriging
- Use the model to determine interpolation weights by
Kriging

Trend analysis
Semivariogram

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4. Kriging
- Use the model to determine interpolation weights by
Kriging

Kriging

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4. Kriging
- Use the model to determine interpolation weights by
Kriging

Conclusion
1) Kriging is computationally intensive
2) All the results depend on the model we fit to the
estimated semi-variogram from the sample data
3) If the corrected model is used, the methods used in
kriging have an advantage over other interpolation
procedures

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4. Kriging

Variations
1) Simple kriging (the summation of the weights does not
equal to one)
2) Ordinary kriging (taught in this class)
3) Universal kriging (combine trend analysis with ordinary
kriging)
4) Co-kriging (more than one variable)

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