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ENERGY (AND) SECURITY

Complications and challenges


REMEMBER SOMETHING
SECURITY?
The security of energy itself is an issue:
- because we rely on it and our supplies may
be interrupted (by accident, nature, or human
intent)
- because the extraction and use of many
energy forms can damage nature and human
beings, ie reflexive risks for human security
The interaction of energy and security is
something else - covered later
SOME IMPLICATIONS
Good example of reflexive risk i.e. our
own choices (energy mix, energy
efficiency, level of dependence) are the
measure of the scale of security probs.
The supplier also needs security
Other consumers/suppliers can come to
be seen as the enemy
PROBLEMS OF
DEPENDENCE
Overall world supplies not adequate =
zero-sum competition, excessive power
to suppliers (primary + secondary
aspects)
Lack of flexibility in market
Over-dependence on one energy
type/source
High risks attached to certain supplies..
EXTERNAL RISKS
Resources less/different than thought
Supplier changes regime,+/or mind
Human/natural damage to sources
Human/natural damage to means of
transit (ships, pipelines)
Prices rise (also for illogical reasons)
INTERNAL RISKS
Means of distribution inadequate/inap-
propriate/leaky
Human or natural damage to network
Inefficient/inappropriate use of energy
Risk of accidents
Pollution + other medical or
environmental harm
MAPPING RELATIVE RISKS
External risks usually greatest for gas
and oil - on gas may improve with LNG
Coal risk mainly internal, esp pollution
Nuclear split personality
Renewables have least risk so long as
produced on own territory
Where to put bio-fuels???
Policy must set risks ag. costs (+ habit)
USUAL RANGE OF
REMEDIES
Increase energy efficiency, decrease
dependence (role of pricing)
Diversify energy types + suppliers
Use more home-made sources
Improve safety (inc anti-prolifn. steps)
Environmental + climate-related controls
Emergency stocks + stock-sharing
Long-term pricing agreements (collective
bargaining?)
AND ALSO
(Polit/mil/technical) arrangements for
safety of sources
(Ditto) arrangements for safety/
redundancy/ repair of means of delivery
Remarks: - whole range of
remedies involve interface with private
actors - security measures
abroad lead into next agenda
ENERGY AND SECURITY
Bad security affects energy: intra-state
conflict and state weakness affects
extraction; any armed conflict damages
installations and export (aggravates
pollution); conflict+terrorism affect
delivery; neglect of safety (anywhere)
Energy affects security.
ENERGY-LINKED THREATS
War with energy sources (or more rarely,
delivery routes) as primary/secondary cause:
energy (i) a tool of power, (ii) a tool of war
Use of energy supplies (and/or manipulated
prices) as a weapon for coercion/domination
without use of arms
Energy deals as means of empire-building +
strategic competition
DIFFERENT ENERGY
SECURITY PROFILES
Typical European
Typical producer country
China or India
Typical smaller developing country
WHAT IS ICELANDS
PROFILE?
Over to Gustaf Adolf
AFTER THE BREAK: 3
THREAT SCENARIOS
Aim is to disentangle:
- Is it really an energy risk or a case of
energy-and-security links?
- How do public policy and private
business interact?
- What are the best remedies (also
thinking of other security dimensions?)
ARCTIC ENERGY EXPLOITATION AND
IMPACT FOR ICELAND

What issues?
What actors?
What remedies?
ANOTHER WAR IN THE
GULF
What issues?
What actors?
What remedies?
INTRA-STATE WAR IN CENTRAL
AFRICA INC. COMPETITION OVER
OILFIELDS
What issues?
What actors?
What remedies?