Chapter 8

Statistical Intervals
for a Single Sample
 LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Construct confidence intervals on
the mean of a normal distribution
Construct confidence intervals on
the variance and standard
deviation of a normal distribution
Construct confidence intervals on
a population proportion
 Confidence Interval
Learned how a parameter can be
estimated from sample data
Confidence interval construction and
hypothesis testing are the two
fundamental techniques of statistical
inference
Use a sample from the full population to
compute the point estimate and the
interval
Confidence Interval On The Mean of a
Normal Distribution, Variance Known

From sampling distribution, L and U

P (L U)= 1-
Indicates probability of 1- that CI will contain
the true value of
After selecting the sample and computing l and
u, the CI for
lu
l and u are called the lower- and upper-
confidence limits
 Confidence Interval On The Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance Known
Suppose X1, X2, , Xn is a random sample from a normal
distribution
Z has a standard normal distribution
X
Z

n

Writing z/2 for the z-value 1-

Hence z/2
-z/2
X
P z / 2 z / 2 } 1
/ n
Multiplying each term
x z / 2 / n x z / 2 / n

A 100(1- )% CI on when variance is known

 Example
A confidence interval estimate is desired
for the gain in a circuit on a
semiconductor device
Assume that gain is normally distributed
with standard deviation of 20
a) Find a 95% CI for when n=10 and x 1000
b) Find a 95% CI for when n=25 and x 1000
c) Find a 99% CI for when n=10 and x 1000
d) Find a 99% CI for when n=25 and x 1000
a) 95% CI for
Example
=0.05, Z 0.05/2 =Z 0.025 = 1.96. Substituting the values
n 10, 20 x 1000, z 1.96
Confidence interval
x z / n x z / n
987.6 1212.4
b) 95% CI for
, n 25, 20 x 1000, z 1.96

x z / n x z / n
992.8 1007.8
c) 99% CI for
, n 10, 20 x 1000, z 2.58

x z / n x z / n
983.7 1016.3
d) 99% CI for
, n 25, 20 x 1000, z 2.58
x z / n x z / n
989.7 1010.3
 Choice of Sample Size
(1-)100% C.I. provides an estimate
Most of the time, sample X mean not equal to
Error E = X
Choose n such that z/2/n = E
Solving for n
Results: n = [(Z/2)/E]2
2E is the length of the resulting C.I.
 Example
Consider the gain estimation problem in
previous example
How large must n be if the length of the
95% CI is to be 40?
Solution
=0.05, then Z/2 = 1.96
Find n for the length of the 95% CI to be 40
 One-Sided Confidence Bounds
Two-sided CI gives both a lower and upper
bound for
Also possible to obtain one-sided confidence
bounds for
A 100(1- )% lower-confidence bound for
X Z / n 1
A 100(1- )% upper-confidence bound for

u X Z / n
 A Large-Sample Confidence Interval for
Assumed unknown and known 2
Large-sample CI
Normality cannot be assumed and n 40
S replaces the unknown
Let X1, X2,, Xn be a random sample with unknown and
2
Using CLT:
X
S/ n

Normally distributed

A 100(1- )% CI on :
S S
x Z / 2 x Z / 2
n n
 C.I. on the Mean of a Normal
Distribution, Variance Unknown
Sample is small and 2 is unknown
Wish to construct a two-sided CI on
When 2 is known, we used standard normal
distribution, Z
When 2 is unknown and sample size 40
Replace with sample standard deviation S
In case of normality assumption, small n, and
unknown , Z becomes T=(X-)/(S/n)
No difference when n is large
 The t Distribution
Let X1, X2,..., Xn be a random sample from a normal
distribution with unknown and 2
The random variable
X
T
S/ n

Has a t-distribution with n-1 d.o.f

No. of d.o.f is the number of observation that can be
chosen freely
Also called students t distribution
Similar in some respect to normal distribution
Flatter than standard normal distribution
=0 and 2=k/(k-2)
 The t Distribution

Several t distributions
Similar to the standard
normal distribution
Has heavier tails than the
normal
Has more probability in the
tails than the normal
As the number d.o.f
approaches infinity, the t
distribution becomes
standard normal
distribution
 The t Distribution
Table IV provides
percentage points of
the t distribution
Let t,k be the value of
the random variable T
with k (d.o.f)
Then, t,k is an upper-
tail 100 percentage
point of the t
distribution with k
The t Confidence Interval on
A 100(1- ) % C.I. on the mean of a normal
distribution with unknown 2
x t / 2,n 1S / n x t / 2,n 1S / n

t/2,n-1 is the upper 100/2 percentage point of the

t distribution with n-1 d.o.f
 Example

An Izod impact test was performed on 20

specimens of PVC pipe
The sample mean is 1.25 and the sample
standard deviation is s=0.25
Find a 99% lower confidence bound on Izod
impact strength
 Solution
Find the value of t/2,n-1
=0.01and n=20, then the value of t/2,n-1 =2.878

s s
x t0.005,19 x t0.005,19
n n
0.25 0.25
1.25 2.878 1.25 2.878
20 20
0.445 2.054
 Chi-square Distribution
Sometimes C.I. on the population variance is needed
Basis of constructing this C.I.
Let X1, X2,..,Xn be a random sample from a normal
distribution with and 2
Let S2 be the sample variance
Then the random variable:
(n 1) S 2
X
2

Has a chi-square (X2) distribution with n-1 d.o.f.

 Shape of Chi-square Distribution
The mean and variance
of the X2 are k and 2k
Several chi-square
distributions
The probability
distribution is skewed
to the right
As the k, the
limiting form of the X2
is the normal
distribution
Percentage Points of Chi-square
Distribution
Table III provides percentage points of X2 distribution
Let X2,k be the value of the random variable X2 with k
(d.o.f)
Then, X2,k

P ( X 2 X 2 ,k ) f (u)du
X 2 ,k
 C.I. on the Variance of A Normal
Population
A 100(1-)% C.I. on 2

( n 1) s 2 ( n 1 ) s 2

2
2
2
X / 2,n 1 X 1 / 2,n 1

X2 /2,n-1 and X2 1-/2,n-1 are the upper and lower 100/2

percentage points of the chi-square distribution with n-1
degrees of freedom
 One-sided C.I.
A 100(1 )% lower confidence bound or
upper confidence bound on 2

( n 1) s 2 ( n 1 ) s 2

2
2
and 2
2

X ,n 1 X 1 ,n 1
 Example
A rivet is to be inserted into a hole. A random sample of
n=15 parts is selected, and the hole diameter is measured
The sample standard deviation of the hole diameter
measurements is s=0.008 millimeters
Construct a 99% lower confidence bound for 2
Solution
For = 0.01 and X20.01, 14 =29.14
14(0.008) 2
2
29.14
0.00003075 2
 A Large Sample C.I. For A
Population Proportion
Interested to construct confidence intervals on a
population proportion
p =X/n is a point estimator of the proportion
Learned if p is not close to 1 or 0 and if n is relatively
large
Sampling distribution of p is approximately normal
If n is large, the distribution of
X np p p
Z
np(1 p ) p(1 p )
n

Approximately standard normal

 Confidence Interval on p
Approximate 100 (1-) % C.I. on the proportion p of the population
p (1 p ) p (1 p )
p z / 2 p p z / 2
n n

where z/2 is the upper /2 percentage point of the standard normal

distribution
Choice of sample size
Define the error in estimating p by p

E= p p
100(1-)% confident that this error less than
p (1 p )
z / 2
n
Thus
p (1 p )
E z / 2
n

n = (Z/2/E)2p(1-p)
 Example
Of 1000 randomly selected cases of lung cancer,
823 resulted in death within 10 years
Construct a 95% two-sided confidence interval on
the death rate from lung cancer
Solution
95% Confidence Interval on the death rate from lung
cancer
832
p 0.832 n 1000 z / 2 1.96
1000
p (1 p ) p (1 p )
p z / 2 p p z / 2
n n
0.832(0.168) 0.832(0.168)
0.832 1.96 p 0.832 1.96
1000 1000
0.8088 p 0.8552
 Example
How large a sample would be required in previous
example to be at least 95% confident that the error
in estimating the 10-year death rate from lung
cancer is less than 0.03?
Solution
E = 0.03, = 0.05, z/2 = z0.025 = 1.96 and = 0.823 as the
initial estimate of p
2

z
n /2
p (1 p )
E
2

1.96
0.832(1 0.832)
0.03
596.62