Banikanta Mishra
Professor of Finance
Xavier Institute of Management, XUB
Bhubaneswar, India
Real Rate
Even in the absence of inflation,
even assets without risk
(say a guaranteed bank deposit)
give a return (call it the interest rate)
Why?
= 4.00%
People prefer
current consumption to future consumption
and, therefore,
demand a compensation for postponing consumption.
THAT REFLECTS IN THE REAL RATE (OF 4% HERE)
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Nominal Rate
$0.80 Price Per Apple $0.80
t=0 t=1
Lend Get back
$20 Nominal Rate = ??
20.80 20.00
------------------
20.00
This buys Should be able
25 apples = 4.00% to buy 26 apples
=> Need
$20.80 (=$0.80 x 26)
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Inflation and Nominal Rate
$0.80 Price Per Apple $0.83
t=0 t=1
Lend Get back
$20 Nominal Rate = ??
21.58 20.00
------------------
20.00
This buys Should be able
25 apples = 7.90% to buy 26 apples
=> $0.83 x 26
= $21.58
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Nominal Rate: Fisher Effect
Nominal Rate =
2%
I
26%
ERR = Average of Actual Returns (over t=0 and t=1) = (*2%) + (*26%)]= 14%
t =0 t=1
I FV1
100 108
Ending Inflow Beginning Outflow FV1 - I
ERR = ---------------------------------------------- = --------------
Beginning Outflow I
= 108 (1 + 10%)
Would FV2 be different if R01 = 10% and R12 = 8%?
= I (1+R) (1+R)
Compound Interest =
Principal
100 100 100
Interest 8
8 8
0.64
Interest on Interest
CONCEPT OF COMPOUNDING
I FV1=I (1+ERR)
100 = 108
I FV2= I (1+ERR)2
100 = 116.64
I FVT= I (1+ERR)T
100 = 100 (1+8%)T
t =0 t=1
I 214
CF1
PV = ------------------------
1 + RRR
AND
Do not invest
t=0 t=1
200 214
PV CF1
= CF1 / (1+RRR)
PV CF2
= CF2 / (1+RRR)2
PV CF3
= CF3 / (1+RRR)3
PV CFT
= CFT / (1+RRR)T
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Discounting Examples
t=0 t=1 t=2 ... t=T
PV CF1
= CF1 / (1+RRR)
PV 108
=108 /(1+8%)
=100
PV CF2
= CF2 / (1+RRR)2
PV 233.28
=233.28 / (1+8%)2 = 200
PV CFT
= CFT / (1+RRR)T
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Time Value of Money
Discounting implies that
$1 received on a future-date is worth less than $1 today
For a given amount,
as the future-date moves farther and farther away,
the worth today (or present value) becomes less and less
(as shown below for RRR = 8%)
0 T=9
@ERR= 8%
100 FVT = 100 (1 + 8% )9 = 199.90
0 T=?
@ERR= 8%
100 FVT = 100 (1 + 8% )T = 200.00
=> T = Ln (200/100) / Ln (1.08) = 9.006 years
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SOLVING FOR R (RRR or ERR) AND PV (or I)
At what rate should $100 be invested to give $200 at end of 9 years?
0 T=9
@ERR = ?
100 FVT = 100 (1 + ERR)9 = 200.00
=> ERR = (200 / 100)1/9 1 = 8.006%
0 T=9
I =? @ERR=8% FVT = I (1 + 8%)9 = 200.00
=> PV or I = 200 / (1.089) = 100.05
200
54 174.96
PV = 50
+ 150
(1+R)T 1
------------ is called PVIFAR,T
R (1+R)T
This is the Present Value of
a CF stream that would pay
$1 per period for T periods,
given discount-rate (or RRR) of R
210
OR Directly: PV = 121 x PVIFA10%,2 = 121 x 1.7355 = 210
-121 PMT; 2 N; 10 I/Y, CPT PV 210.00
What is EMI?
0.50% 0.75% ??
Should you
OR
We Should Have
60,000 = PV = 1200 * PVIFARm,T
(where Rm is the monthly rate)
Ln [1 (Rm * PVIFA)]
PVIFARm,T = 60,000 / 1200 = 50 => T = - Ln (1 + Rm)
If Rm = (1 + 7%)1/12 1 = 0.565% Plug In to get T = 58.91
T
CF1 1 1 g
R g 1 R
Y Y ... Y Y
+
Y(1+R)
+
Y (1+R)T-2
+
Y (1+R)T-1
(1+R)T 1
------------ is called FVIFAR,T
R
If we deposit $1 per period (from t=1)
at a rate of R per period,
then our balance would at end of t=T
would grow to the above value
FVIFAR,T = PVIFAR,T x (1+R)T
Looks familiar?
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How much will I have at year-end if I deposit $100 p.m. @1% p.m?
t=0 t=1m t=2m ... t=11m t=T=12m
100 100 ... 100 100
+
100(1+1%)1
+
100 (1+1%)10
+
100 (1+1%)11
(1+1%) 12 1
= Y * FVIFA1%,12 OR Y * ---------------- = Y * 12.6825 = 1268.25
1%
Calculator: 12 N; -100 PMT; 1 I/Y; CPT FV 1,268.25