Probability Model:

Binomial Distribution.
Poison Distribution
Normal Distribution.
The Binomial Distribution...
Defination:
Examples:
Examples::
Examples:::
 Probability Model:
Binomial Distribution.
Poison Distribution
Normal Distribution.
 POISSON
DISTRIBUTION.
 Historical Note:
Discovered by Mathematician Simeon Poisson
in France in 1781.

The modelling distribution that takes his name

was originally derived as an approximation to
the binomial distribution.
 Defination:
Is an eg of a probability model which is usually
defined by the mean no. of occurrences in a
time interval and simply denoted by .
 Uses:
Occurrences are independent.
Occurrences are random.
The probability of an occurrence is constant
over time.
 Sum of two Poisson distributions:
If two independent random variables both
have Poisson distributions with parameters
and , then their sum also has a Poisson
distribution and its parameter is + .
The Poisson distribution may be used to model a
binomial distribution, B(n, p) provided that
n is large.
p is small.
np is not too large.
 F o r m u l a:
The probability that there are r occurrences in a
given interval is given by
Where,
= Mean no. of occurrences in a time interval
r =No. of trials.
The Poisson distribution is defined by a
parameter, .
 Mean and Variance of Poisson
Distribution
If is the average number of successes
occurring in a given time interval or region in
the Poisson distribution, then the mean and
the variance of the Poisson distribution are
both equal to .
i.e.
E(X) =
&
V(X) = 2 =
 Examples:
1. Number of telephone calls in a week.
2. Number of people arriving at a checkout in a
day.
3. Number of industrial accidents per month in a
manufacturing plant.
 Graph :
Lets continue to assume we have a
continuous variable x and graph the Poisson
Distribution, it will be a continuous curve, as
follows:

Fig: Poison distribution graph.

 Example:
Twenty sheets of aluminum alloy were examined for surface
flaws. The frequency of the number of sheets with a given
number of flaws per sheet was as follows:

What is the probability of finding a sheet chosen

at random which contains 3 or more surface
flaws?
 Generally,
X = number of events, distributed
independently in time, occurring in a fixed
time interval.
X is a Poisson variable with pdf:

where is the average.

 Application:
The Poisson distribution arises in two ways:
1. As an approximation to the binomial
when p is small and n is large:

Example: In auditing when examining

accounts for errors; n, the sample size, is
usually large. p, the error rate, is usually small.
2. Events distributed independently
of one another in time:
X = the number of events occurring in a fixed
time interval has a Poisson distribution.

Example: X = the number of telephone calls in

an hour.
 Probability Model:
Binomial Distribution.
Poison Distribution
Normal Distribution.
The Normal Distribution...
The End
Thank You.