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Venue
Date
FORMULAS FOR PORTFOLIO RISK AND
RETURN
E Rp
N
w E R
i 1
i i
N
2p
i 1, j 1
wi w j Cov(i, j )
w
i 1
i 1
i 1
2
i , j 1,i j
wi w j ij i j
p 2p
EXHIBIT 6-1 PORTFOLIO RISK AND
RETURN
Weight in Weight in Portfolio
Portfolio Asset 1 Asset 2 Return Portfolio Standard Deviation
X 25.0% 75.0% 6.25% 9.01%
Y 50.0 50.0 7.50 11.18
Z 75.0 25.0 8.75 15.21
Combine Optimal
Capital Superimpose
risk-free
allocation line utility curves Risky
asset and
(CAL) on the CAL
risky asset Portfolio
EXHIBIT 6-2 RISK-FREE ASSET AND
PORTFOLIO OF RISKY ASSETS
DOES A UNIQUE OPTIMAL RISKY
PORTFOLIO EXIST?
CML
Points above the
CML are not
achievable
Efficient
E(Rm) frontier
M
Individual
Securities
Rf
E R p w1 R f 1 w1 E Rm
p 1 w1 m
E Rm R f
E Rp R f p
m
EXAMPLE 6-1 RISK AND RETURN ON THE
CML
Mr. Miles is a first time investor and wants to build a
portfolio using only U.S. T-bills and an index fund
that closely tracks the S&P 500 Index. The T-bills
have a return of 5%. The S&P 500 has a standard
deviation of 20% and an expected return of 15%.
1. Draw the CML and mark the points where the
investment in the market is 0%, 25%, 75%, and
100%.
2. Mr. Miles is also interested in determining the
exact risk and return at each point.
EXAMPLE 6-2 RISK AND RETURN OF A LEVERAGED
PORTFOLIO WITH EQUAL LENDING AND BORROWING
RATES
Nonsystematic
Risk
Total Risk
Systematic
Risk
RETURN-GENERATING MODELS
Estimate of
Expected
Return- Return
Generating
Model
Different
Factors
GENERAL FORMULA FOR RETURN-
GENERATING MODELS
All models contain return
Factor weights or factor on the market portfolio as
loadings a key factor
E Ri R f ij E Fj i1 E Rm R f ij E Fj
k k
j 1 j 2
Risk factors
THE MARKET MODEL
E Ri R f i E Rm R f Single-index model
Ri R f i Rm R f ei
expected returns and realized
returns is attributable to an
error term, ei.
Cov Ri , Rm i ,m i m i ,m i
i
m 2
m 2
m
0.026250 0.70 0.25 0.15 0.70 0.25
i 1.17
0.02250 0.02250 0.15
Slope = [Beta]
Rm
Market Return
CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL (CAPM)
Beta is the primary
determinant of expected return
E Ri R f i E Rm R f
E Ri 3% 1.5 9% 3% 12.0%
E Ri 3% 1.0 9% 3% 9.0%
E Ri 3% 0.5 9% 3% 6.0%
E Ri 3% 0.0 9% 3% 3.0%
ASSUMPTIONS OF THE CAPM
Investors are risk-averse, utility-maximizing, rational
individuals.
Markets are frictionless, including no transaction costs or
taxes.
SML
The SML is a
Expected Return
graphical
M
E(Rm) i = m representation
of the CAPM.
Rf Slope = Rm Rf
1.0
Beta
PORTFOLIO BETA
Portfolio beta is the weighted sum of the betas of the
component securities:
N
p wii (0.40 1.50) (0.60 1.20) 1.32
i 1
E R p R f p E Rm R f
E R p 3% 1.32 9% 3% 10.92%
APPLICATIONS OF THE CAPM
Estimates of
Expected
Return
CAPM
Applications
Security Performance
Selection Appraisal
PERFORMANCE EVALUATION: SHARPE RATIO
AND TREYNOR RATIO
Sharpe Focus on Rp R f
Ratio total risk Sharpe ratio
p
Treynor Focus on Rp R f
systematic Treynor ratio
Ratio risk p
PERFORMANCE EVALUATION: M-
SQUARED (M2)
Sharpe Ratio
Identical rankings
Expressed in
percentage terms
m
M Rp R f
2
Rm R f
p
PERFORMANCE EVALUATION: JENSENS
ALPHA
Subtract risk-
Estimate portfolio Determine risk- adjusted return
beta adjusted return from actual
return
p R p R f p Rm R f
EXHIBIT 6-8 MEASURES OF PORTFOLIO
PERFORMANCE EVALUATION
Excess
Excess Security Return
Returns
[Beta]
Jensens Rm Rf
Excess Market Return
Alpha
EXHIBIT 6-12 SECURITY SELECTION
USING SML
Undervalued
Ri
C ( = 20%, = 1.2)
Return on Investment
SML
Overvalued
15
%
A ( = 11%, = 0.5)
B ( = 12%, = 1.0)
Rf = 5%
= 1.0
Beta
DECOMPOSITION OF TOTAL RISK FOR A
SINGLE-INDEX MODEL
R i R f i R m R f e i
Zero
EXHIBIT 6-13 DIVERSIFICATION WITH
NUMBER OF STOCKS
Non-Systematic Variance
Total
Variance
Variance
Variance of Market Portfolio
Systematic Variance
1 5 10 20 30
Number of Stocks
WHAT SHOULD THE RELATIVE WEIGHT
OF SECURITIES IN THE PORTFOLIO BE?
Greater Non-
Higher Alpha
Systematic Risk
Higher Weight
Lower Weight
i
Information ratio 2
ei
LIMITATIONS OF THE CAPM
Single-factor model
Theoretical Single-period model
Market portfolio
Proxy for a market portfolio
Practical Estimation of beta
Poor predictor of returns
Homogeneity in investor expectations
EXTENSIONS TO THE CAPM:
ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY (APT)
E R p RF 1 p ,1 K p,K
Sensitivity of the
Portfolio to Factor 1
FOUR-FACTOR MODEL
Value
Anomaly
Size
Anomaly
SUMMARY