Have you ever

Shot a rifle?
Played darts?
Played basketball?
Shot a round of golf?

What is the point of these sports?

What makes them hard?
Have you ever
Shot a rifle?
Emmett
Played darts?
Shot a round of golf?
Played basketball?

Jake

Who is the better shot?

Discussion
What do you measure in your process?
Why do those measures matter?
Are those measures consistently the
same?
Why not?
Variability 8
7
10
8
Deviation = distance between 9

observations and the mean (or Emmett

average)
Observations Deviations
10 10 - 8.4 = 1.6
9 9 8.4 = 0.6
8 8 8.4 = -0.4
Jake
8 8 8.4 = -0.4
7 7 8.4 = -1.4
averages 8.4 0.0
Variability
Deviation = distance between
observations and the mean (or Emmett

average)
Observations Deviations
7
7 7 6.6 = 0.4 6
7 7 6.6 = 0.4 7
7 7 6.6 = 0.4 7
6 Jake
6 6 6.6 = -0.6
6 6 6.6 = -0.6
averages 6.6 0.0
Variability 8
7
10
8
Variance = average distance 9

between observations and the Emmett

mean squared
Observations Deviations Squared Deviations
10 10 - 8.4 = 1.6 2.56
9 9 8.4 = 0.6 0.36
8 8 8.4 = -0.4 0.16
Jake
8 8 8.4 = -0.4 0.16
7 7 8.4 = -1.4 1.96
averages 8.4 0.0 1.0 Variance
 Variability
Variance = average distance
between observations and the Emmett

mean squared
Observations Deviations Squared Deviations
7
7 6
7 7
7 7
6 Jake
6
6
averages
 Variability
Variance = average distance
between observations and the Emmett

mean squared
Observations Deviations Squared Deviations
7
7 7 - 6.6 = 0.4 0.16 6
7 7 - 6.6 = 0.4 0.16 7
7 7 - 6.6 = 0.4 0.16 7
6 Jake
6 6 6.6 = -0.6 0.36
6 6 6.6 = -0.6 0.36
averages 6.6 0.0 0.24 Variance
Variability
Standard deviation = square root
of variance Emmett

Variance Standard
Deviation
Emmett 1.0 1.0
Jake 0.24 0.4898979 Jake

But what good is a standard deviation

Variability

The world tends to

be bell-shaped

Even very rare Fewer Most Fewer Even very rare

outcomes are in the outcomes in the outcomes are
possible tails occur in the tails possible
(probability > 0) (lower) middle (upper) (probability > 0)
Variability
Here is why: Even outcomes that are equally
likely (like dice), when you add
them up, become bell shaped
Add up the dots on the dice

0.2
Probability

0.15 1 die
0.1 2 dice
0.05 3 dice

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Sum of dots
 Normal bell shaped curve

Add up about 30 of most things

and you start to be normal

Normal distributions are divide up

into 3 standard deviations on
each side of the mean

Once your that, you

know a lot about
what is going on

And that is what a standard deviation

is good for
 Usual or unusual?
1. One observation falls
outside 3 standard
deviations?
2. One observation falls in
zone A?
3. 2 out of 3 observations fall in
one zone A?
4. 2 out of 3 observations fall in
one zone B or beyond?
5. 4 out of 5 observations fall in
one zone B or beyond?
6. 8 consecutive points above
X XX
XX1X XX2
X 34 56 78
the mean, rising, or falling?
Causes of Variability
Common Causes:
Random variation (usual)
No pattern
Inherent in process
adjusting the process increases its variation
Special Causes
Non-random variation (unusual)
May exhibit a pattern
Assignable, explainable, controllable
adjusting the process decreases its variation

SPC uses samples to identify that special causes have occurred

Limits
Process and Control limits:
Statistical
Process limits are used for individual items
Control limits are used with averages
Limits = 3
Define usual (common causes) & unusual (special
causes)
Specification limits:
Engineered
Limits= target tolerance
Define acceptable & unacceptable
Process vs. control limits
Distribution of averages

Control limits
Specification limits

Variance of averages < variance of individual items

Distribution of individuals

Process limits
Usual v. Unusual,
Acceptable v. Defective

A B C D E

Target
 More about limits
Good quality:
defects are
rare (Cpk>1)

target

Poor quality:
defects are
common (Cpk<1)

target

Cpk measures Process Capability

If process limits and control limits are at the same location, Cpk = 1. Cpk 2 is exceptional.
Process capability
Good quality: defects are rare (Cpk>1)
Poor quality: defects are common (Cpk<1)
=
USL x
= 24 20 =.667
3 3(2)
Cpk = min
=
= 20 15 =.833
x - LSL
3 3(2)

14 20 26
15 24
= =
3 = (UPL x, or x LPL)
Going out of control
When an observation is unusual, what can
we conclude?

The mean
has changed

1 2
Going out of control
When an observation is unusual, what can
we conclude?

The standard deviation

1 has changed

X
Setting up control charts:
Calculating the limits
1. Sample n items (often 4 or 5)
2. Find the mean of the sample x (x-bar)
3. Find the range of the sample R
4. Plot x on the x chart
5. Plot the R on an R chart
6. Repeat steps 1-5 thirty times
7. Average the x s to create x (x-bar-bar)
8. Average the Rs to create R (R-bar)
Setting up control charts:
Calculating the limits
9. Find A2 on table (A2 times R estimates 3)
10. Use formula to find limits for x-bar chart:

X A2 R

11. Use formulas to find limits for R chart:

LCL D3 R UCL D4 R
 Lets try a small problem

smpl 1 smpl 2 smpl 3 smpl 4 smpl 5 smpl 6

observation 1 7 11 6 7 10 10
observation 2 7 8 10 8 5 5
observation 3 8 10 12 7 6 8
x-bar
R

X-bar chart R chart

UCL

Centerline

LCL
 Lets try a small problem

smpl 1 smpl 2 smpl 3 smpl 4 smpl 5 smpl 6 Avg.

observation 1 7 11 6 7 10 10
observation 2 7 8 10 8 5 5
observation 3 8 10 12 7 6 8
X-bar 7.3333 9.6667 9.3333 7.3333 7 7.6667 8.0556
R 1 3 6 1 5 5 3.5

X-bar chart R chart

UCL 11.6361 9.0125
Centerline 8.0556 3.5
LCL 4.4751 0
X-bar chart

14.0000
12.0000 11.6361
10.0000
8.0000 8.0556

6.0000
4.4751
4.0000
2.0000
0.0000
1 2 3 4 5 6
R chart

10
9.0125
8
6

4 3.5
2

0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6
Interpreting charts
Observations outside control limits indicate
the process is probably out-of-control
Significant patterns in the observations
indicate the process is probably out-of-
control
Random causes will on rare occasions
indicate the process is probably out-of-
control when it actually is not
Interpreting charts
In the excel spreadsheet, look for these
shifts:

A B

C D

Show real time examples of charts here

Lots of other charts exist

P chart C charts U charts Cusum & EWMA

For yes-no For counting Average count Advanced charts
questions like number defects per unit (similar
is it defective? where most items to C chart)
(binomial data) have 1 defects
(eg. custom built
houses)
V shaped or
p(1 p) u
p 3 c 3 c u 3 Curved control
n n limits (calculate
them by hiring a
statistician)
Selecting rational samples
Chosen so that variation within the sample is
considered to be from common causes
Special causes should only occur between
samples
Special causes to avoid in sampling
passage of time
workers
shifts
machines
Locations
Chart advice
Larger samples are more accurate
Sample costs money, but so does being out-of-control
Dont convert measurement data to yes/no binomial
data (Xs to Ps)
Not all out-of control points are bad
Dont combine data (or mix product)
Have out-of-control procedures (what do I do now?)
Actual production volume matters (Average Run Length)