theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. Suppose a drug test is 99% sensitive and 99% specific. That is, the test will produce 99% true positive results for drug users and 99% true negative results for non-drug users. Suppose that 0.5% of people are users of the drug. If a randomly selected individual tests positive, what is the probability that he is a user? 1. In a certain plant, three machines, A, B, C makes 30%, 45%, 25%, respectively of the products. It is known that from past experiences that 2%, 3% and 2% of the product made by each machine, respectively are defective. Now, suppose that a finished product is randomly selected,
a) what is the probability that it is defective.
b) If a product was chosen and found out to be defective. What is the probability that it was made by machine C? Answer: Make an assumption: Let D = defective products A = product for machine A ; B = product for machine B ; C = product for machine C 2. The UAAP AdU baseball team plays 60 percent of its games at night and 40 percent in the daytime. It wins 55 percent of its night games but only 35 percent of its day games. You read in the paper that the AdU baseball team won their last game against the FEU baseball team. What is the probability that it was played at night? 3. There are 3 urns A, B and C each containing a total of 10 marbles of which 2, 4 and 8 respectively are red. A pack of cards is cut and a marble is taken from one of the urns depending on the suit shown - a black suit indicating urn A, a diamond urn B, and a heart urn C. What is the probability a red marble is drawn? 4. A customer has approached a bank for a loan. Without further information, the bank believes there is a 4% chance that the customer will default on the loan. The bank can run a credit check on the customer. The check will yield either a favorable or an unfavorable report. From past experience, the bank believes that P(favorable report being received | customer will default) = 0.03 and P(favorable report being received | customer will not default) = 0.99. a) What is the probability that a favorable report will be received? b) If a favorable report is received, what is the probability that the customer will default on the loan? 5. On Consider a shopper will choose either brand A or brand B. On each purchase, the probability that he will choose the same brand that he chose on his last preceding purchase is 1/3, and the probability that he will switch brands is 2/3. Suppose that on his first purchase the probability that he will choose brand A is 1/4 and the probability that he will choose brand B is 3/4. What is the probability that his second purchase will be brand B? 6. A firm is accustomed to training operators who do certain time in production line. Those operators who attended the training course are known to be able to meet their production quotas 90% of the time. New operator who did not take the training course only meets their quotas 65% of the time. Fifty percent of new operators attended the course. Given that a new operator meets his production quota, what is the probability that he attended the training course? 7. Two urns contain colored balls. Urn 1 contains 4 blue, 3 green and 5 red balls. Urn 2 contains 6 blue, 2 green and 3 red balls. A ball is selected at random from urn 1 and transferred to urn 2. A ball is then selected at random from urn 2. If the ball selected from urn 2 is red, what is the probability that the ball transferred from urn 1 was:(i) red? (ii) blue?