Epidemiology in Stroke
Rusdi Lamsudin
Department of Neurology
Faculty of Medicine
Indonesia Islamic University
Yogyakarta
Outline
Background
INTERSTROKE STUDY
Global burden of stroke
Dead from Stroke
Risk Factors
Conclusion
Background
Increases of up 300% in older population
are expected in many developing
countries within 30 years
Policy makers
National and International organizations
Health professionals
General public
Global Epidemiology of Stroke
INTERSTROKE Phase 1
Mar 26th 2010 , IHF, Dublin
Two Options
Large prospective cohort study (Not feasible)
Casecontrol design (Applicable to all income settings)
Risk factor Controls (%) Cases (%) OR (95% CI)* PAR (%)
Atherothrombotic
disease (20%)
Embolism (20%)
SAH (41%)
Albers GW et al. Chest. 1998;114:683S-698S. Cryptogenic (35%)
Rosamond WD et al. Stroke. 1999;30:736-743.
EPIDEMIOLOGY (UNEXPLAINED)
Considerable regional variatio on in stroke incidence
Unexplained by HTN, Smoking and Diabetes
Proposed that 3040% of strok ke is unexplained
MONICA
CHOLESTEROL
Association appears to be regional
Western countries: No convincing as ssociation for Ischemic Stroke but inconsistent
findings
Asia: Apparent association but limite ed studies (older)
Apparent inverse association with ICH
But statins prevent ischemic stroke
SPECIFIC TO STROKE
Valid determination of Stroke Sub btype
(Ischemic, ICH and SAH) requires routine CT of brain
Until recently, very limited availab bility in lowincome settings
Questionnairebased research
Presents challenges, given many p patients with stroke are unable to
communicate
Surrogate respondents (Robust Questionnaire: INTERHEART)
ODonnell and Yusuf Lancet Neurol 2009
Objectives of INTERSTROKE (Phase 1)
To determine the feasibility of u undertaking a large international
casecontrol study to identify and estimate the population
attributablerisk (%) of convent tional and emerging risk factors
for stroke.
Casecontrol study
International, multicentere ed
Hospitalbased
Prospective followup of all cases (1month)
Similar methodology of IN
NTERHEART
CASE
Ischemic stroke
Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH)
Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH)
INCLUSION CRITERIA
Communitybased controls :
Visitor or relative of a patient from a noncardiac ward, or an
unrelated (not first degree relative) visitor of a cardiac patient.
Community strategies
Hospitalbased controls :
May be an attendant or a relative of another patient in hospital
Patients admitted to the hospital or visiting the hospital for
conditions or procedures not related to stroke or TIA or ACS (on
this admission)
INTERSTROK KE PHASE 1
REGION CASES CONTROLS TOTAL PARTICIPANTS
22 Countries
Asia
China, India, Philippines, Malay ysia and (Australia)
Africa
Mozambique, Nigeria, South Afr rica, Sudan, Uganda
America
Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Chile e, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru
Europe
Denmark, Germany, Poland, Cr roatia
Middle East
Kuwait
VARIATION IN STROK KE MORTALITY RATES
VARIATION IN STROKE PRESE ENTATION AND MANAGEMENT
STROKE SUBTYP PES (ISCHEMIC)
NEUROIMAGING >99%
100
90 87.3
80 77.8 74.9 77.8 77.7
70 67
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
All Regions HIC S America China India Africa
N=2477 N=355 N=175 N=895 N=788 N=264
INTERSTROKE Investigators Meeting Nov 2009
INTRACRANIAL HEMORRHAGE
ICH SAH
50 50
45 45
40 40
35 31.8 35
30 30
25 23.4 25
20.8 21.7 20.8
20 20
15 15
9.3
10 10
5 5 3.4
1.4 1.7 0.6 1.5 1.1
0 0
700
644.04
600
500
454.08
400
300
200
100
90 90 90
80 80 80
73.7
70 70 70
58.9
60 55.7 60 55.6 60
50 50 47.6 50
42.9
40 40 40
30 30 30
24.1
18.6
20 20 20 15.7
11.1 10.5
10 10 5.3 10 7.1 5.6
2.4
0 0 0
All HIC S China India Africa All HIC S China India Africa All HIC S China India Africa
Regions America Regions America Regions America
Urbanization
Socioeconomic change
Lifestyle changes
More sedentary lifestyles
Dietary changes (increas sed fat intake)
Tobacco
Yusuf et al Circulation 2001;104:274653
Increased Li ife Expectancy
WHO 2003
INTERSTROKE
AGE OF CASES (< 45 YEAR OR >65 YEARS)
Other Asia represents data from data from Korea, Thailand and Taiwan
Kearney et al. Lancet 12004; 35: 1248
SELFREPORTED HYPERTENSION
5.0
4.0
OR 3.0
2.0
Adjusted for Age, Sex, Region, DM, Smoking, , Alcohol, Chol, Fruit/Veg, WHR, Stress, Physical Activity
0 1.0
All Stroke Ischemic Strok ke ICH
3.0
OR2.0
1.0
8 0.8
Gender
Predominantly male
Non-smoked tobacco
e e.g. India: Beedies
WHO http://www.who.int/tobacco/statistics/tobacco_atlas/en/
SMOKING AND STROKE
Korean study (n= 648,346 men) 30-64 years (1992)
Follow-up of 10 years (9,475 h had stroke)
Non-smoked tobacco
Teo et al. Lancet 2006
CURRENT SMOKING
2.0
OR1.5
1.0
5 0.5Adjusted for Age, Regions, Sex, HTN, DM, Chol, Frui it/Veg, Alcohol, WHR, Stress, P Activity
All Stroke Ischemic ICH
Never 1 1 1
Former 0.89 (0.721.11) 0.89 (0.711.13) 0.93 (0.641.35)
Current 2.06 (1.752.44) 2.24 (1.872.68) 1.37 (1.031.82)
CIGARETTES (NUMBER/D DAY AND TYPE): ALL STROKE
4.0
3.0
OR2.0
1.0
Adjusted for Age, Regions, Sex, HTN, DM, Chol, Frui it/Veg, Alcohol, WHR, Stress, P Activity
No per Day TYPE
Never/Former 1 Never/Former 1
19 1.56 (1.172.09) ) Filter (17.6%) 2.01 (1.662.44)
1019 1.93 (1.482.51) ) NonFilter (3.6%) 3.08 (2.244.25)
>19 2.94 (2.303.76) )
ENVIRONMENTAL SMOKE (NONSMOKERS)
Adjusted for Age, Sex, Region, Hypertensio on, DM, Alcohol
2.5
2.0
OR1.5
1.0
Frequency Duration
None None
13/month 1.23 (0.991.59) 12 hour rs 1.38 (1.131.68)
16/week 1.44 (1.171.78) > 2 Hour rs 1.66 (1.362.03)
Daily 1.75 (1.382.20)
Movement from Rural to Urban
Transition to urban living
1900 (10%) and 2005 (50%)
Varying stages in Asian countries
Nutritional Transition
Metabolic Transition
BMI (19892000) Children
Jaipur Heart Watch: Obesity in wom men from 15.7% (92-4) to 57.7% (05-6)
Gupta et al Heart (2008);94:16-26
APCSC: Continuous relationship with h CVD
Ni Mhurchu et al Int J Epidemiol (2004);33:751-8
Yangfeng Wu; Overweight & obesity in China BMJ 2006 6 Wang H et al International Journal of Obesity 31(2007):272278.
WAISTHIP RATIO
Women >0.95
Men >1.0
WAISTHIP RATIO
Adjusted for Age, Sex, Hypertension, DM, Smoking, Cholesterol, Fruit and Vegetable Intake, BMI
2.5
2.0
OR1.5
1.0
5 0.5
Tertile All Stroke Ischemic ICH
Tertile 1
Tertile 2 1.44 (1.221.71) 1.44 (1.201.73) 1.34 (1.021.76)
Tertile 3 1.63 (1.381.95) 1.72 (1.442.05) 1.20 (0.911.60)
PHYSICAL L ACTIVITY
Adjusted for Age, Sex, Region, HTN, DM, Smoking, Fruit t and Veg Intake, WHR, Alcohol, Psychosocial stress
1.5
1.0
OR0.8
0.6
1.5
OR1.0
0.8
0.6
All Stroke Ischemic ICH
Q1 1 1 1
Q2 0.88 (0.74 1.06) 0.99 (0.79 1.23) 0.80 (0.57 1.12)
Q3 0.83 (0.69 1.00) 0.82 (0.66 1.00) 0.65 (0.47 0.90)
Q4 0.74 (0.61 0.90) 0.74 (0.61 0.91) 0.62 (0.45 0.86)
RAW VEGETABLES
2.0
Adjusted for Age, Sex, Region, Smoking, Alcohol, BMI, Education
1.5
OR1.0
0.8
6 0.6
All Stroke Ischemic ICH
Q1 1 1 1
Q2 0.86 (0.73 1.03) 0.94 (0.78 1.14) 0.76 (0.57 1.01)
Q3 1.00 (0.80 1.25) 1.08 (0.85 1.37) 0.93 (0.65 1.34)
Q4 0.97 (0.80 1.18) 1.10 (0.89 1.37) 0.68 (0.48 0.96)
ALCOHOL (DRINKS PER MONTH)
Adjusted for Age, Sex, Region, HTN, DM, Smoking, Fruit/Veg, WHR, Exerc cise, Psychosocial stress
2.0
1.5
OR1.0
0.8
6 0.6
OR (95%CI) All Stroke Ischemic ICH
Never 1 1 1
115/month 0.87 (0.701.08) 0.82 (0.651.04) 1.07 (0.731.57)
1630/month 1.02 (0.691.52) 0.83 (0.541.28) 1.88 (1.033.44)
>30/month 1.43 (1.151.79) 1.30 (1.021.66) 1.74 (1.212.50)
Consequent Risk Fa actors
Cholesterol (19841999) Diabetes Mellitus
5
250
4.9 Male High-income
Female Low-income
4.8
200
4 4.7 7
4.6 150
4.5
m illions
4.4 100
4 4.3 3
4.2 50
4.1
4 0
1984 1988 1993 1996 1999 2000 2025
WHO MONICA survey, Beijing Lag Phase
Earlier onset in Asians (South Asians) INTERHEART
Joshi et al JAMA (2007)
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
20
15 13.1
10 7.4 6.4
4 4.8 8 3.7
5
0
All Regions HIC S America China India Africa
2.5
Increased Stress
2.0
OR1.5
1.0
Adjusted for Age, Sex, Region, HTN, DM, Smoking, Fruit an nd Vegetable Intake, WHR, Physical activity
All Stroke Ischemic ICH
None
Some Periods 1.04 (0.891.22) 1.05 (0.891.24) 1.07 (0.821.39)
Several Periods 1.53 (1.221.91) 1.58 (1.242.01) 1.29 (0.891.88)
Permanent 1.73 (1.112.70) 1.83 (1.142.96) 1.53 (0.713.30)
Why does Stroke Predominate in Some Regions?
Difference in Interventions
Modifiability of risk factors (ev vidence and resources)
Awareness Truelsen ESC 20 010
Indirect comparisons
Non-standardized methodology
Liu et al Lancet Neurol 2007;6:456-64
Ebrahim et al BMJ (2006)
Ireland (Burden of Vas scular Risk Factors)
Hypertension
SLAN 2007 Survey
60% had hypertension (57% no ot on medications)
70% were not controlled to targ get
Smoking
1998-2006 (33% to 24.5%)
Obesity
1990-2000: Women (13-16%) a and Men (8-20%)
Physical Activity
National Health Promotion Stra ategy 1998-2002
Men (21% to 30%) and Women n (20% to 25%)
Future Plans
INTERSTROKE-Phase 1
Preliminary estimates of PAR of common risk factors
Explore genetics (preliminary) )
INTERSTROKE-Phase 2
20,000 participants (10,000 ca ase-control pairs)
Importance of risk factors within regions/countries