ANALYSIS OF LOCAL

ELECTION RESULTS IN THE

MUNICIPALITY OF SZAVA
 OBJECTIVES OF THE
PROJECT:

Create an overview of the municipal election results in the

selected municipality from 2002 to 2014
On the basis of a comparison of two electoral systems
(using the 2014 election results ), find out which of the
electoral systems...
... is favorable for which party?
... allocates seats to parties more fairly?
... allows for easier coalition formation?
(The change of the electoral system will focus on the
formation of electoral districts in order to strengthen the
largest party)
Determine the degree of the stability of the party system
 CHAPTER I
AN OVERVIEW OF ELECTION
RESULTS (2002 2014)
ELECTION RESULTS
CHAPTER II
SIMULATION OF A CONVERSION
OF VOTES INTO MANDATES (2014
ELECTIONS)
Main goal:
To strengthen the largest party by creating electoral districts.
Criteria and conditions:
1) Create the smallest possible constituencies (min. of 5
seats!)
2) The size of the council must be between 15 and 25
councilors
3) Preserve more or less balanced weight of votes
ELECTION RESULTS
SETTING UP THE ELECTORAL
DISTRICTS MAGNITUDE
ELECTION RESULTS BY
ELECTORAL WARDS
ELECTION RESULTS BY
CONSTITUENCIES
DHONDT METHOD
REAL AND SIMULATED
ELECTION RESULTS
 CHAPTER III
ANALYSIS I THE IMPACT OF AN
ELECTORAL SYSTEM CHANGE
ON THE FORMAT OF THE PARTY
SYSTEM
1. find out which electoral system is favorable or
unfavorable for which party (deformation index)
2. find out which electoral system allocates seats
to parties more fairly (disproportionality index)
3. find out which of the electoral systems allows
for easier formation of a governing majority (ENP)
ANALYSIS I
FIND OUT WHICH ELECTORAL SYSTEM IS
FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE FOR WHICH
PARTY
ANALYSIS I
FIND OUT WHICH ELECTORAL SYSTEM
ALLOCATES SEATS TO PARTIES MORE FAIRLY
(DISPROPORTIONALITY INDEX)
ANALYSIS I
FIND OUT WHICH OF THE ELECTORAL SYSTEMS
ALLOWS FOR EASIER FORMATION OF A GOVERNING
MAJORITY (ENP)
 CHAPTER IV
COALITIONS
AN ANALYSIS OF THE
COALITION VARIANTS
ACCORDING TO THE
THEORY OF
COALITIONS
APPLICATION OF THE CLASSIC
THEORY OF COALITIONS

Comparison of the minimal winning coalition (MWC)

variations based on real election results (1 district) and
the variations when changing the electoral system (4
districts).
Is it true that an electoral system change which causes a
higher concentration of power (as measured by the index
of effective number of parties) facilitates the formation of
coalitions?
COALITIONS (REAL RESULTS)
COALITIONS (SIMULATED RESULTS)
CHAPTER V
ANALYSIS II STABILITY OF THE
PARTY SYSTEM
(ELECTIONS 2002 2014)
Analysis II
Determine the degree of the stability of the party system in
the municipality on the basis of the diachronic
comparative analysis (comparison over time) of the
development of the party system fragmentation and
volatility.
 STABILITY OF
THE PARTY SYSTEM