Short Term Load Forecast

Using Fuzzy Logic

 Agenda

Introduction

FNN System

Test Case

Advantages

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Introduction

Short term load forecasting (STLF) is important for the economic and secure operation of
power systems.
Examples include unit commitment, hydro-thermal co-ordination, interchange evaluation and
security assessment.
An excellent discussion of the traditional STLF methods can be found in power systems.
Recently, artificial neural networks (ANN) have been successfully applied to STLF.
Due to rapid change in weather conditions and the short time required for their development,
ANN based STLF models a very attractive alternative for on line implementation in energy
control centers.

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FNN System
The fuzzifcation interface is a mapping from the observed non-
fuzzy input space.
The fuzzy rule base is a set of linguistic rules or conditional
statements in the form of: "IF a set of conditions is satisfied,
THEN a set of consequences are inferred".
The fuzzy inference machine is a decision making logic
performing the inference operations of the fuzzy rules.
The defuzzification interface defuzzifies the fuzzy outputs of the
fuzzy inference machine and generates a non-fuzzy(crisp) output
which is the actual output of the fuzzy system.

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FNN System
The fuzzy system whose output can be represented by a three layer network as shown:

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Test Case

The developed FNN for STLF has been tested using historical load data of the Greek
interconnected power system. The Greek interconnected power system has a peak load of
about 5.5 GW
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Advantages
Training of the FNN was much faster than that of neural networks.
The FNN can effectively incorporate linguistic IF-THEN expert rules, whereas neural networks
cannot.

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References
G. Gross and F.D. Galiana: "Short term load forecasting", Prm. IEEE, Vol. 75, No 12, pp. 1558-
1573, 1987.
C. Asbury: "Weather Load Model for Electric Demand Energy Forecasting", IEEE Transactions on
Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-94, No 4, pp. 1111-1116,1975.
W.R. Christiaanse: "Short-term load forecasting using general exponential smoothing", IEEE
Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems , PAS-90, pp. 900-911 1971.
C.N. Lu, H.T. Wu and S. Vemuri: "Neural Network Based Short Term Load Forecasting", IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 8, No 1, pp. 336-342, 1993.

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 Thank You!

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