8 tayangan

Diunggah oleh Bogdanloe

Spider Project Risk Simulation and Management Technique

- IRJET-Risk analysis in adopting FES-exoskeleton system in rehabilitation programs
- eBook - LCC using ABC
- SDA 3E Chapter 11
- cv rklindsey 122315
- Simulation Lab report 9.doc
- Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis
- Risk Analysis of Software Schedule based on Simulation
- Literatur Verweis
- A Framework for Inferring Field-scale Rock Physics Relationships Through Numerical Simulation
- Aircom 3G Planning Steps
- Simulations in Statistics
- Monte Carlo Simulation Basics
- 01 - System Simulation
- Risk Analysis
- Guide Risk Analysis for Oil Industry
- Comparing Lives
- SPE-1254-MS_(1).pdf
- TCDDmodel
- Financial Derivatives & Risk Management
- Assignment 5_ratri Kirana p

Anda di halaman 1dari 53

management technique

Victoria Shavyrina PMP

Vladimir Liberzon PMP

www.spiderproject.com

Introduction

Reliable plans may be created only with project risks taken

into account.

In this presentation we will discuss the unique risk

simulation and management techniques employed in

Spider Project .

Spider Project is the only project management

software that simulates risks and uncertainties,

taking into account all project constraints and

expected management responses to project

events.

Risk Simulation Goals

Project risks and uncertainties are simulated to determine:

Project risks that require maximum attention

Project targets that can be met with sufficient

probabilities

Contingency reserves that must be created to meet

project targets

Current probabilities of meeting project targets

Resources required for reliable achievement of

project targets

Project activities that require maximum attention

Risk Simulation Methods

The common risk simulation method is the Monte Carlo

technique that simulates project execution many times,

each time with new initial data randomly selected, based

on the expected probability distributions.

After thousands of iterations, the probability distributions of

project results are restored and analyzed.

Risk Simulation Methods

Another risk simulation method available to Spider Project

users is the method of 3 scenarios.

The user creates the optimistic, the most likely, and the

pessimistic versions of project model and comes up with

three estimates of final results for the project (duration,

cost, etc.).

The probability distributions of project results are created,

based on these estimates.

Risk Simulation Methods

In this presentation we will discuss both of these methods

together with their respective strengths and weaknesses

Spider Project users can select the method to use in

concrete projects, based on the project risk structure,

project size, initial data reliability, available time, and other

factors that we will discuss later.

Risk Simulation Requirements

To be reliable, Risk Simulation must:

Take into account all existing constraints and

restrictions, including resource constraints, material

supply constraints, funding restrictions, etc.

Simulate risk events that may happen and risk

responses to be applied by the management in

case they do occur

Simulate the corrective actions to be applied by the

management in case project performance gets

worse (or better) than expected as a result of a risk

events

Risk Simulation Requirements

For risk simulation requirements to be met, one has to be

able to use the GERT network that includes the

probabilistic and conditional branches and simulates

potential loops in project execution.

The model must simulate original uncertainty, existing

dependencies between project parameters, and how the

project will be managed in real life.

Most available risk simulation tools do not meet

these requirements.

Risk Simulation Problems

Let's start with discussing risk simulation problems typical

for most available risk simulation tools.

These problems include:

Simulating the result of uncertainty rather than its

source

Missing the correlations between the probability

distributions of project parameters

Missing the corrective actions to be applied if a risk

event occurs and threatens project objectives

Using leveling heuristics other than those utilized

for managing projects with resource constraints

Simulating the results of uncertainty

rather than its source

Let's consider a simple project consisting of only one

activity whose volume of work is 80 pieces.

Activity duration depends on the assigned resources

productivity with the optimistic estimate of 1.25 pc/hour, the

most likely estimate being 1 pc/hour, and the pessimistic

estimate of 0.8 pc/hour.

The workday lasts 8 hours

Thus, the optimistic duration of the activity/project is 8

days, the most likely, 10 days, and the pessimistic, 12.5

days.

The source of uncertainty is the assigned resources

productivity however, most risk simulation packages do

not work with resource productivity and simulate duration

uncertainty only.

Simulating the result of uncertainty

rather than its source

Let's assume that we have selected a triangular probability

distribution of initial data

The results of simulations of productivity uncertainty and

duration uncertainty for the same project are different. Not

only the probability distributions but also the probabilities of

meeting certain targets do not match.

The Monte Carlo simulation must be applied to the

sources of risks.

Simulation of productivity uncertainty

The probability of finishing earlier than in 10 days is 55.39%

Simulation of duration uncertainty

The probability of finishing earlier than in 10 days is 44.95%

Missing the correlations between

probability distributions of project

parameters

Let's assume that we decided to create more detailed

model of our project and instead of one activity with most

likely duration of 10 days created a path of ten activities

with most likely duration of 1 day each and the same

distribution of activity duration (-20%, +25%).

Project duration probability distribution will change and

probability to finish earlier than in 10 days becomes

28.84% instead of 44.95%.

Duration probability distribution for project

consisting of 10 activities

Both distributions are shown in one screen:

Missing the correlations between

probability distributions of project

parameters

Activity duration depends on the productivity of the

assigned resources: the higher productivity, the faster all

activities will be performed.

Thus, the durations of all 10 activities are strongly

correlated with each other.

It is not easy to set correlations between durations

for all activities executed by the same resources

and therefore the probabilities calculated using the

Monte Carlo method may be wrong.

Missing the corrective actions to apply if a risk event

occurs and threatens project objectives

are applied.

The Monte Carlo method should simulate these corrective

actions in the respective iterations. It means that the project

model must include conditional branches if then and risk

simulation software must automatically select the right

branch, based on the predefined conditions.

Besides, your software must be able to work with risk events

and probabilistic branches activated with certain probabilities

in case of occurrence of risk events.

If risk responses and corrective actions are not

simulated, the probability distributions shown by MC

will be wrong.

Using leveling heuristics other than those utilized for

managing projects with resource constraints

funding restrictions to be taken into account in all MC

iterations.

Risk simulation software must use the same leveling

heuristics as that used in PM software for project resource

management. Otherwise MC probability distributions will

be wrong.

Different software packages, however, use their own

leveling algorithms and create different resource-

constrained schedules for the same projects.

Any external risk simulation tool is not reliable

when project schedule has resource constraints.

Creating the Right Project Model

To be used as a reliable tool for project planning, risk

simulation, and decision making, your project model must

be able to simulate reality.

In this presentation we will discuss what is necessary for

the right risk simulation although there are many other

requirements, in particular, for simulating project resource

work and assignments.

Simulating Data Uncertainty

Project risks include risk events and data uncertainty.

Most project parameters like activity duration, resource

productivity, volumes of work, etc. are uncertain. For these

uncertain parameters it is necessary to enter their

optimistic, most likely and pessimistic estimates as well as

expected probability distributions.

It is more difficult to simulate uncertainties in the activity

and resource calendars. For the calendars, the user must

set the optimistic, most likely and pessimistic calendars

that may have different work days and work hours.

Simulating Risk Events

Risk events are simulated by special activities called

Triggers.

A trigger is an activity with zero duration and a certain

probability of occurrence.

A trigger activity may have several outgoing dependencies,

each with its own probability (total probability of all

outgoing dependencies is 100%).

Each dependency is the beginning of a path that simulates

a chain of activities planned to be executed in case of

certain outcomes of risk event.

Probabilistic and Conditional

Branches

Thus, a project model can include the probabilistic

branches that follow certain outcomes of a risk event and

include the planned risk response actions.

Project risks may threaten project objectives and corrective

actions may be required, such as speeding up the

remaining works by using additional resources or different

calendars.

A project model may include activities called Switches that

select the way the project will be executed, based on

certain predefined conditions.

Switch Activities

Switch is a zero duration activity with two possible states:

Yes or No. If Yes, one branch of succeeding activities is

selected, if No, another branch.

The state of a switch activity can be selected manually

(which is useful for what-if evaluations) or using the

respective formulas.

Example: if a switch activitys scheduled start is later than a

certain date, then its state is Yes, otherwise its No.

Switch activities are used for creating conditional branches

in project models.

Project model for risk analysis

Project model developed for risk simulation and analysis

must include:

The ranges of uncertain project data (optimistic,

most likely, and pessimistic values)

The main risk events (triggers) followed by

probabilistic branches

Switches that launch corrective actions when

project risks endanger achieving project goals.

Purpose of risk analysis

Risk simulation and analysis must determine contingency

reserves to be created for reliably meeting the predefined

project targets, or setting reliable targets that may be

achieved with sufficient probability.

Project contingency reserves (PCRs) is the difference

between the target value and planned value. PCRs may be

created for project duration, cost or any other uncertain

parameter including user-defined.

Example

The Spider Project approach to Monte Carlo risk simulation

can be illustrated with an example shown in the next slide.

Although we did not name the project activities, you can

imagine that the content of this project includes creating

something and then testing it. The test may be successful

and in this case the project proceeds to the final phase. If

the test failed, this something is improved and then tested

again.

In our example, the probability of the test failing is 50% for

the first time, 30% for the second time and 10% for the

third time.

Example

If a switch activity happens later than in February, we add

resources to the final activity to do it faster.

Uncertainty was entered as the range of duration data for

all activities except Final. For the Final activity we entered

the range of assigned resource productivity.

In the schedule shown in the previous slide, all tests have

failed and the project is late, so the switch automatically

selected the branch where the final activity execution was

accelerated by assigning additional resources.

Example

Project duration probability distribution for our example:

Example

You may notice that the above distribution has only two

peaks instead of three, which could have been expected

with three consecutive triggers in the schedule.

However, our planned corrective action has minimized the

third triggers impact on schedule duration although if the

third trigger occurs, the project cost will increase.

Another Example

The previous example showed how Spider Project

simulates risk events and the respective corrective actions.

However, in our further discussion of Spider Project risk

management technique and approaches we will use the

same Sample project that was used in the Spider Intro

presentation: the construction of 1 km road.

This project is shown in the next slide.

Another Example

In this project, activity durations are calculated as volumes

of work divided by the assigned resource productivity

which is uncertain:

Probability Distributions

Spider Project simulates initial data uncertainty: resource

productivity, material requirements, costs per volume unit,

etc.

After MC risk simulation, we obtained the probability

distributions for the main project parameters.

Project Targets

Project targets are set, based on the probability distribution

analysis.

Let's set project targets for the cost (2,920,000 coins with

68.31% probability), duration and finish (34 days, Finish on 08

Sep16) with 80.28%.

The chances to achieve both targets are much lower only

60.65%

What is unique in Spider Project

Monte Carlo simulation

Monte Carlo simulation can be used for resource-constrained

schedules and takes into account all existing constraints

including funding, supply, and space restrictions

Spider Project simulates original data uncertainty such as

resource assignment productivity, material requirements per

volume unit, etc.

Spider Project automates the correlation between cost and

duration for activities of the same type

Spider Project simulates risk events together with potential

responses and corrective actions

Monte Carlo simulation of

resource-constrained schedules

Resource-constrained schedules created for the same

projects by different tools are different. This is due to the

absence of mathematical solution for finding the best

(shortest) schedule when project resources are constrained.

Project management tools use different leveling heuristics

based on proprietary algorithms.

If one tool is used for project resource management and

another is used for the Monte Carlo risk analysis, the results

may be misleading because the MC tool simulates a

different resource assignment process.

Monte Carlo simulation of

resource-constrained schedules

Let's have a look at the resource-constrained schedules

calculated for the same project by Microsoft Project and Spider

Project:

Monte Carlo simulation of

resource-constrained schedules

We have entered the same

duration range (-25%,

+50%) and triangular

distributions of activity

durations, and obtained

different probability

distributions for project

duration with MS Project

(upper distribution) and

Spider Project help.

The probability of finishing the

project faster than in 25

workdays is 81.25% for

Spider Project users and 1%

for MS Project users.

Monte Carlo simulation of

resource-constrained schedules

The external risk simulation tools use their own algorithms for

resource-constrained scheduling and, therefore, probability

distributions created by these tools may be wrong (like in our

example).

With Spider Project, the target will be achieved with 80%

probability and with Microsoft Project with less that 1%

probability.

Warning: don't rely on external software tools to

simulate risks in resource-constrained schedules!

Three Scenarios

Spider Project users may create three project scenarios,

based on the data entered for the Monte Carlo simulation:

optimistic, most likely and pessimistic.

We recommend to use the optimistic version based on the

optimistic estimates of project parameters for project

workforce management, and manage contingency

reserves.

Three Scenarios

The Optimistic, Most Likely and Pessimistic versions of the

project have different finish dates and costs.

We know the minimum, maximum and most likely values

for each project parameter and, based on these values, we

set up probability distribution based on the predefined

shapes of probability curves.

We selected the shapes that are not as sharp as those

created by the Monte Carlo simulation, keeping in mind

that the estimates made by humans may be too optimistic.

Three Scenarios

Three-scenarios risk analysis for our project provided us with

the following results:

The probability of meeting the 34-day duration target is

65.8% and the probability of spending less than 2,920,000

ducats is 66.2%

Critical Schedule

Three-scenarios risk analysis includes creating the Critical

Schedule: a resource-constrained schedule that is

calculated backwards from the target date.

Project Buffers

The difference between the dates in the critical schedule

and the current schedule shows the time reserves of the

project and its activities.

If those reserves have already been used, the chances to

meet the project time targets are very low.

The project buffer (the difference between the target value

and the project value) will be consumed during the

execution of the project.

If it is consumed faster than expected, the project success

probability becomes lower.

Success-Driven Project

Management

Project risk analysis must be performed with each project

update. The newly discovered risks must be included in the

project model, the old risks may disappear, and uncertainty

may change.

Entering new data, we must run the risk simulation (using

the Monte Carlo or Three scenarios) and calculate the

current probabilities of meeting project targets.

If success probability trends are negative, the corrective

actions may be considered.

The next slide shows what it looks like.

Success-Driven Project

Management

You may have noticed that, although the values of

probabilities calculated using the Monte Carlo and Three

scenarios methods are different, the success probability

trends are similar.

Thus, both methods provide us with the same information

about project performance: whether our chances to meet

project targets are increasing or decreasing.

The Monte Carlo simulation is much more time consuming

and more accurate but our initial data is never quite

accurate and so this advantage is insignificant.

The three-scenarios method is less accurate but much

faster and easier to use.

Success-Driven Project

Management

The best project performance indicator is success

probability trend.

Traditional methods of project performance analysis such

as Earned Value analysis, variance analysis, and trend

analysis estimate the past performance.

Success probabilities look to the future. The past

performance may be excellent but new risks can be

identified and reduce the probabilities of meeting project

targets.

Success probability trends inform project managers if the

corrective actions should be considered.

Conclusions

A reliable quantitative risk analysis must take into account

the following:

Identified risk events

Initial data uncertainty

All project constraints

The corrective actions to be applied when project

objectives are threatened

Risk simulation software that does not simulate all of the

above cannot not provide reliable probability distributions

for project parameters

Conclusions

Using external tools for risk simulation is not reliable when

project resources are limited or some other project

constraints exist

Risk identification, estimation and simulation must be done

regularly (preferably with each project update)

Success probability trends are the best project

performance indicators

Positive trends show that contingency reserves are

consumed slower than expected while negative trends

suggest that corrective actions might be considered

Conclusions

The Monte Carlo method is accurate but initial data used

for risk simulation is not

With large projects, the Monte Carlo simulation is very

time-consuming, which makes it hard to do regularly

The method of three scenarios is less accurate but

provides the same information on success probability

trends as the Monte Carlo method

3 Scenarios is a very fast, intuitive and easy to use

technique, which it very usable for regular analysis of

success probability trends

Thank you!

Questions?

E-mail:

smt@spiderproject.com

53

- IRJET-Risk analysis in adopting FES-exoskeleton system in rehabilitation programsDiunggah olehIRJET Journal
- eBook - LCC using ABCDiunggah olehRamesh
- SDA 3E Chapter 11Diunggah olehxinearpinger
- cv rklindsey 122315Diunggah olehapi-295850343
- Simulation Lab report 9.docDiunggah olehMuhammad Irshad Nazeer
- Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk AnalysisDiunggah olehkadamvinayaks
- Risk Analysis of Software Schedule based on SimulationDiunggah olehIJIRST
- Literatur VerweisDiunggah olehpntu2003
- A Framework for Inferring Field-scale Rock Physics Relationships Through Numerical SimulationDiunggah olehAşuencei Vlad
- Aircom 3G Planning StepsDiunggah olehMaxime Netstat Tchapo Tanté
- Simulations in StatisticsDiunggah olehstealth2012
- Monte Carlo Simulation BasicsDiunggah olehSudarsanRaja
- 01 - System SimulationDiunggah olehAnime Future
- Risk AnalysisDiunggah olehSailesh Ngangbam
- Guide Risk Analysis for Oil IndustryDiunggah olehLEO_GONZALEZ
- Comparing LivesDiunggah olehSilvia Alonso
- SPE-1254-MS_(1).pdfDiunggah olehLeonardo Ari Prasetyo
- TCDDmodelDiunggah olehdrancerboy
- Financial Derivatives & Risk ManagementDiunggah olehGaurav Kumar
- Assignment 5_ratri Kirana pDiunggah olehRatriKiranaPrabaningtyas
- CV de Mey YannDiunggah olehYann de Mey
- MPF 2Diunggah olehHarshita shukla
- Society of EngineersDiunggah olehleshorswill
- Risk Management g InsuranceDiunggah olehPrasanta Ghosh
- Discussion. Risk and Its Management in Construction ProjectsDiunggah olehchondroc11
- Project Risk ManagementDiunggah olehRasha Abduldaiem Elmalik
- C IEEE Statistical Power Estimation for IP-based DesignDiunggah olehblackwhite_1007648
- experiment reviewDiunggah olehapi-241712486
- Lec 01 for risk managementDiunggah olehTomAto
- Playject Project Management GameDiunggah olehtelusrinu

- Activity Gantt - #SCN1031754_Drm_Bnf_19 [1]Diunggah olehBogdanloe
- TEHNOLOGIA LUCRĂRILOR DE CONSTRUCŢII ŞI MAŞINI DE CONSTRUCŢII MAI 2010Diunggah olehStefan Ilie
- Tehnologia Lucrarilor Din Beton ArmatDiunggah olehRoxana Bordianu
- Gantt - ProiectareDiunggah olehBogdanloe
- stas-10473-1-87-straturi-din-agregate-naturale-stabilizate-cu-ciment.pdfDiunggah olehBratu Luminita
- Caiet de SarciniDiunggah olehBogdanloe
- Planificare Strazi MultipleDiunggah olehBogdanloe
- LBJ Schedule NarativeDiunggah olehmohammednatiq
- Sample Schedule NarativeDiunggah olehBogdanloe
- Cod Practica 2013 Faza2(1)Diunggah olehAdi Cumpanasu
- Activity Gantt - #SCN1013117_Apa_Bnf_18 [0] - Sistem de Alimentare Cu Apa in Satul Croici, Com. Matasari, JudDiunggah olehBogdanloe
- TLC I - CursDiunggah olehViorel Costina
- Long Intl Choosing the Most Appropriate Schedule Analysis MethodDiunggah olehBogdanloe
- Calculul Gradului de Maturizare Al Betonului - ExempluDiunggah olehIoana Crisu
- Calculul Gradului de Maturizare Al Betonului - ExempluDiunggah olehIoana Crisu
- Spider Intro 2017Diunggah olehBogdanloe
- Model Drum Agricol 1,3 KmDiunggah olehBogdanloe
- Grafic Gantt PodDiunggah olehBogdanloe
- Highrise Construction Diagram - High_Rise_Test [1] - High_Rise_TestDiunggah olehBogdanloe
- Activity Gantt - #426258_Drm_Bnf_18 [0] - Modernizare Strazi in Comuna MischiiDiunggah olehBogdanloe
- Spider Project Risk Simulation and Management TechniqueDiunggah olehBogdanloe
- Spider Project Risk Simulation and Management TechniqueDiunggah olehBogdanloe
- Proper_Cash_Flow [1] - Cash-Flow SampleDiunggah olehBogdanloe
- Activity Gantt - #421060_PDr_Bnf_18 [1] - Constructie Pod Peste Raul Ciocadia, Drum Satesc Ds 35 ( Patroi) , - Structure 1Diunggah olehBogdanloe
- Monte Carlo (Parameter _ Duration, Days [Cumulative]) - Modelare_Riscuri_Trigg_Switch [1] - Modelare Riscuri Triggers Switch - There Are 24 Activities in the ProjectDiunggah olehBogdanloe
- Grafic Retea (Gresit numit Grafic PERT)Diunggah olehBogdanloe
- Abordarea Celor 3 Scenarii - Calcul Cash-FLowDiunggah olehBogdanloe
- Sinteza Modificărilor Legii Privind Achizițille Publice Prin OUG Nr. 107 Din 22.12.2017Diunggah olehBogdanloe
- Canalizare 2.5 KmDiunggah olehBogdanloe
- Activity Gantt - #421483_PDr_Bnf_18 [2] - Pod B.ADiunggah olehBogdanloe

- Belden AX104442Diunggah olehtobe
- 99-T038Diunggah olehGowthamraj
- I-neema Profile 2016, July.Diunggah olehbenandy2018
- [Te_Fu_Chen]_Implementing_New_Business_Models.pdfDiunggah olehdsdamos
- Avant Garments Ltd.-selection ProcessDiunggah olehNobo Ahmed
- Simple Future TenseDiunggah olehArifa Nurhudayanti
- Alcoholism and HepatitisDiunggah olehTom Mallinson
- Printer Sony Upd75mdDiunggah olehHaluk Alibazoglu
- Module3 the SchwaDiunggah olehJoy Celestial
- Assignment Brief Unit 14 - SSCMLDiunggah olehYousefkic
- Current LogDiunggah olehgajali badrun
- Form 5 Chapter 10 Linear ProgramingDiunggah olehJenn
- InconnelDiunggah oleharunrad
- Platts et al 2014 Prospecting for native metals in Lunar polar craters.pdfDiunggah olehWarren Platts
- Drt.gov.in Rddbfi ActDiunggah olehvarshneyankit1
- PM5560_PM5563_PublicFirmwareRevisionHistory_v2.1.0.pdfDiunggah olehfelipeasmuller
- Respiratory SystemDiunggah olehAnna Dominique Jimenez
- Lecture 03 - 2 - HS Model 2Diunggah olehZhenhe Song
- IRJET-Properties_of_Paver_Blocks_with_Gr.pdfDiunggah olehKlisman A. Flores Durand
- Attitudes and Moral Values of Tenants and Customers Towards Security Personnel in StaDiunggah olehLya Niro
- Real time monitoring river gaugeDiunggah olehInternational Journal for Scientific Research and Development - IJSRD
- EEC List of StandardsDiunggah olehAhmadreza Aminian
- Abbreviations Notations and SymbolsDiunggah olehbrian Decker
- John Deere 850D LCDiunggah olehForomaquinas
- PC 951 DesignerGuide EnDiunggah olehamitsingh1811
- GCF PresentationDiunggah olehJessy Owen
- Back to KatzDiunggah olehMAVillar
- VFR_Flight_Guide_VFGDiunggah olehEddie Tonkin
- Detecting Plagiarism in Text Documents Through GrammarAnalysis of AuthorsDiunggah olehkushndoshi
- An Efficient Implementation of Chronic Inflation based Power Iterative Clustering AlgorithmDiunggah olehIRJET Journal