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METHOD OF PROJECT

ECONOMIC ANALISYS
Pengertian Dasar
Analisa Ekonomi dan Analisa Finansial
• Analisa ekonomi berupa analisa Cashflow Cost dan Benefit
yang didasarkan pada harga ekonomi ( opportunity price )
– Tujuan: Mengetahui dampak Proyek terhadap ekonomi makro
(manfaat terhadap kesejahteraan masyarakat)
• Analisa finansial berupa analisa Cashflow Cost dan Benefit
yang didasarkan harga finansial ( market price ).
– Tujuan : Mengetahui kemampuan pengembalian dana dari proyek
yang bersangkutan ( amortisasi Loan ). Bermanfaat bagi investor
untuk pertimbangan peminjaman dana.
• Komponen-komponen biaya yang dikeluarkan harus
diperhitungkan ( pajak, angsuran pinjaman dll.)
• Analisa finansial sangat penting bagi investor-investor
swasta.
Hirarki Penilaian Kelayakan Proyek
Investasi

Sumber: Joesron, Tati S (2001)


Purpose
• The main purpose of project economic
analysis is to help design and select
projects that contribute to the welfare of a
country.
• This technique is based on the ratio of
benefits to costs using either present
worth or annual cash flow calculation.
• Benefit cost ratio analysis is often used at
the various levels of government.
PRIVATE VERSUS PUBLIC

• Private organisation
– Profit
• Public organisation / activities
– General welfare
– Value to beneficiaries
– Beneficiaries are unique individuals
– Value = f(personal values, beliefs, etc.)
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS METHOD

• Ada 4 ( empat ) macam metoda dasar perhitungan Analisa Ekonomi , yaitu


:
1. N P V atau N P W (Net Present Value atau Net Present Worth)
2. I R R atau E I R R (Economic Internal Rate of Return)
3. B/C R atau B C R (Benefit Cost Ratio)
4. N/K R (Net Benefit - Investtment Ratio)

• Secara singkat keempat metoda tersebut dapat dijelaskan sebagai berikut :


NPV - Cost dan Benefit dihitung Present Valuenya
- Dasar perhitungan adalah Interest Rate / Suku Bunga
yang telah ditentukan
- NPV = PV Benefit — PV Cost
- Harga NPV ini merupakan Harga PV Keuntungan dari investasi
- NPV positif atau > 0  Proyek dinyatakan layak
• BCR - Diperoleh dengan membagi PV Benefit dan PV Cost
- B/CR > 1 -> Proyek dinyatakan layak
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS METHOD
• IRR - Dihitung Cost dan Benefit
- Dibuat Cashflow Cost dan Benefit sesuai dengan
umur ekonomisnya
- Dihitung Net Benefit untuk tiap tahunnya
- Net Benefit untuk dasar perhitungan I R R
- Hitung nilai Discount Rate ( Suku Bunga ),
dimana : PV Benefit = PV Cost , atau NPV = 0
- Kalau Suku Bunga < I R R  Proyek layak dilaksanakan

• N ./ K R - Hitung PV benefit dan PV Investment


- PV Net Benefit diperoleh dengan menghitung PV
cashflow benefit yang bertanda positif
- PV Invstment diperoleh dengan menghitung PV
cashflow cost dengan tanda negatif
- Perhitungan N / K ratio adalah untuk mengetahui tingkat
pengembalian investasi pada awal suatu proyek
- N / K Ratio > 1  Proyek dinyatakan layak
Benefit Cost Ratio / BCR
Benefit Cost Analysis is a calculation of the
stream of both benefits and costs over the
lifetime of the facility or strategy.”

FHWA Procedural Guidelines


for Highway Feasibility Studies
Typical Life-Cycle Profile

Benefits
Initial Capital Costs
Cost
Dollars

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year

Example Direct Benefits Example Indirect Benefits


•Reduced Accident Costs •Land use impacts
•Reductions in Delay Costs •Employment
•Reduced noise or emissions •Non-user benefits
IDENTIFYING BENEFITS & COST

Benefits to Public Disbenefits to the Public


• Reduced vehicle operating • Land removed from agricultural
costs (excluding Fuel tax) production
• Reduced commercial and • Damages resulting from
noncommercial travel time
• Increased safety changes to water flow
• Increased accessibility between • Decreased movement of
communities livestock across highway
• Ease of driving • Increased air pollution and litter
• Appreciation of land values

Savings to State Costs to State


• Toll revenues • Construction costs
• Increased taxes due to • Maintenance costs
appreciated land and increased
business activity • Administrative costs
VALUING BENEFITS
• Not always an easy task
• Should be measured in terms meaningful to the stakeholders
• A good Benefits - Cost analysis should not only compare the
quantifiable consequences of a project but should also
describe the non-quantifiable characteristics in whatever
terms are feasible.
• Consideration of taxes:
– Economic gains or losses in respect of taxes should be
taken into account in the analysis
– Example: loss of company tax where a project displaces
businesses to a different geographic location.
– Example: increase in sales tax where a project leads to
more sales
Benefits, Disbenefits, and Cost Calculation of a
Single Project

• Conventional B/C ratio


B/C = (B – D)/C

• Modified B/C
B/C = (B – D – O&M costs)/ initial investment
SELECTION

Kriteria Seleksi
• BCR > 1 Usulan proyek diterima
• BCR < 1 Usulan proyek ditolak
• BCR = 1 Netral
BENEFIT COST RATIO ANALYSIS

• B/C = PW benefit/PW cost = EUAB/EUAC ≥ 1


(EUAB/C = Equivalent Uniform Annual Benefit/Cost)
Situation Criterion
Fixed Input Maximize B/C
Fixed output Maximize B/C
Neither input nor output is Compute incremental BCR
fixed (ΔB/ΔC) on the increment of
the alternatives.
If ΔB/ΔC ≥ 1 choose higher
cost alt; otherwise, choose
lower cost alt.
BCR Calculation for Double Alternatives

• Example 1 :
– Devices A with cost $1000 have a useful life of five
years and no salvage value. Device A can be
expected to result in $300 saving annually.
– With interest at 7%, what you decision, purchase or
not?
BCR Calculation for Double Alternatives

• Example 2 :
– Devices B with price $1200 have a useful life of
five years and no salvage value. Device B will
provide cost savings of $400 the first year, but will
decline $50 annually. With interest at 7%, what are
you decision, purchase or not?
BCR Calculation for Double Alternatives

• Example 3 :
– A firm is trying to decide which of two devices to
install to reduce a particular situation. Devices A
cost $1000 and B cost $1200. Both devices have a
useful life of five years and no salvage value.
Device A can be expected to result in $300 saving
annually. Device B will provide cost savings of
$400 the first year, but will decline $50 annually.
With interest at 7% which device should the firm
purchase?
• Example 4:
– Two machines are being considered for purchase.
Assuming 10% interest, which machine should be
bough?
Machine X ($) Machine Y ($)
Initial Cost 200 700
Annual 95 120
Benefit
SV 50 150
Useful life 6 12
(years)
BCR Calculation for Multiple Alternatives

• Incremental analysis is need to solve the


problem.
1. Be sure the alternatives are identified.
2. Compute B/C ratio for each alternative. Discard any
with B/C < 1
3. Arrange the remaining alternatives in ascending
order of investment.
4. If ΔB/ΔC < 1 the increment is not attractive. If ΔB/ΔC ≥ 1 the
increment of investment Is desireable.
5. If ΔB/ΔC ≥ 1, choose the higher cost; If ΔB /ΔC < 1 choose the
lower cost
• Example 5 :

A B C D E F

Initial 4000 2000 6000 1000 9000 10000


cost
PW 7330 4700 8730 1340 9000 9500
benefit
Useful 20 20 20 20 20 20
life
SV 0 0 0 0 0 0
SOLUTION EXP 5
• Step 2
A B C D E F
B/C 1.83 2.35 1.46 1.34 1.0 0.95

• Step 3
D B A C E
B-D A-B C-A
ΔC 1000 2000 2000
ΔB 3360 2630 1400
ΔB/ 3.36 1.32 0.7
ΔC
• Step 4

E-A
ΔC 5000
ΔB 1670
ΔB/ΔC 0.33

• The increment is undesirable. We choose Alt A as the


best alt.
Kelebihan dan Kekurangan
BCR
• BCR merupakan alat analisis yang
sederhana, sehingga memudahkan
pengambil keputusan dalam menentukan
dan mengurutkan prioritas. Penentuan
prioritas ini tentu saja akan meningkatkan
efektifitas penggunaan anggaran.
• Pada praktiknya pengambil keputusan
seringkali mengalami kesulitan untuk
mengidentifikasi pos biaya yang akan
dianalisis
Homework
• Two routes are under consideration for new highway. The
northerly route X would be located about 5 miles from the
central business district and would require longer travel
distance by local commuter traffic. The southerly route Y
would pass directly trough the downtown area and, although
its construction cost would be higher, it would reduce the
travel time and distance for local commuter. Assume the cost
for two route are as follow :
Route X Route Y
Initial cost $ 10.000.000 $ 15.000.000
Maintenance cost per year 35.000 55.000
Road user cost saving per year 450.000 200.000

if the roads are assumed to last 30 year, which route should be


accepted using interest rate of 5% per year?

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