02 Model Introduction
CONTENT
03 Shiny
04 Conclusion
PART ONE
Motivation
Speaker:蔡沂芯
4 FACTS IN TAIWAN
Don't drink
Big issue in Taiwan TV & online news DUI Laws.
and drive.
.
TV & ONLINE NEWS
DUI PROBLEMS ARE WORLDWIDE
GOAL
1
Find some factors,
which may cause
impact on number of 2
drunk driving
Fit models to figure out
the reasons behind
people drink and drive
and try to improve DUI
issue
PART TWO
Model Introduction
Speakers:黃子芸,陳亮瑾
MODEL INTRODUCTION
Input
Modeling
Compare
Interaction
MODEL INTRODUCTION Raw data
Input
Modeling
Compare
Interaction
MODEL INTRODUCTION Standardized data
Input
Modeling
Compare
Interaction
MODEL INTRODUCTION Model 1 -Model with normal distribution
Input
Modeling
Compare
Interaction
MODEL INTRODUCTION Model 2 -Model with normal distribution
Input
Modeling
Compare
Interaction
MODEL INTRODUCTION Model 3 -Model with normal distribution
Input
Modeling
Compare
Interaction
MODEL INTRODUCTION Compare of m1,m2,m3
Input
Modeling
Interaction
Map2stan
MODEL INTRODUCTION Compare of m1,m2,m3
Input
Modeling
Compare
Interaction
MODEL INTRODUCTION Quadratic Approximation
vs.
MCMC Method
map
y ~ Normal (𝜇 , 𝜎)
Modeling precis(m3)
Mean StdDev 5.5% 94.5%
a 0.00 0.05 -0.08 0.08
bu -0.26 0.08 -0.39 -0.13
bc -0.29 0.09 -0.43 -0.14
Compare bd -0.31 0.06 -0.40 -0.22
bb 0.36 0.06 0.26 0.46
bo 0.55 0.08 0.43 0.68
be -0.40 0.07 -0.51 -0.30
Interaction sigma 0.37 0.03 0.31 0.43
MODEL INTRODUCTION Quadratic Approximation
vs.
MCMC Method
map2stan
y ~ Normal (𝜇 , 𝜎)
Modeling
precis(m1.stan)
Mean StdDev lower 0.89 upper 0.89 n_eff Rhat
a 0.00 0.05 -0.09 0.08 17799 1
bu -0.26 0.09 -0.41 -0.12 14253 1
Compare bc -0.29 0.10 -0.45 -0.14 11793 1
bd -0.31 0.06 -0.41 -0.21 14912 1
Bb 0.36 0.07 0.25 0.47 12434 1
bo 0.55 0.09 0.42 0.69 14148 1
be -0.40 0.07 -0.51 -0.28 15794 1
Interaction sigma 0.41 0.04 0.34 0.47 14150 1
MODEL INTRODUCTION Quadratic Approximation
vs.
MCMC Method
Quadratic Approximation
MCMC Method
Method
Input
Modeling
Compare
Interaction
MODEL INTRODUCTION Quadratic Approximation
vs.
MCMC Method
Quadratic Approximation
MCMC Method
Method
Input
Modeling
Compare
Interaction
MODEL INTRODUCTION Poisson vs. Normal Distribution
Poisson Distribution
y ~ Poisson ( λ )
log( λ ) = 𝛼 + 𝛽uUnemployment + 𝛽cCigarPrice + 𝛽dDivorce
+ 𝛽bBirthRate + 𝛽oOilPrice + 𝛽eEcconomy
Input
precis(m3.poisson)
Modeling Mean StdDev 5.5% 94.5%
a 6.49 0.01 6.48 6.50
bu -0.07 0.01 -0.08 -0.05
bd -0.06 0.01 -0.06 -0.05
Compare bb 0.06 0.01 0.05 0.07
bo 0.11 0.01 0.09 0.12
bc -0.08 0.01 -0.09 -0.06
be -0.08 0.01 -0.09 -0.07
Interaction
MODEL INTRODUCTION Poisson vs. Normal Distribution
Poisson Normal
Input
Modeling
Compare
Interaction
MODEL INTRODUCTION The Interaction Model
The new results
Modeling precis(m1.interaction)
Mean StdDev 5.5% 94.5%
a -0.25 0.12 -0.44 -0.07
bd -0.26 0.07 -0.38 -0.15
Compare bb 0.26 0.08 0.13 0.38
bu -0.28 0.13 -0.49 -0.07
be -0.26 0.08 -0.39 -0.12
bc -0.77 0.12 -0.96 -0.59
bi -0.39 0.15 -0.62 -0.15
Interaction sigma 0.48 0.05 0.41 0.55
MODEL INTRODUCTION The Interaction Model
The new results
Modeling precis(m2.interaction)
Mean StdDev 5.5% 94.5%
a 0.01 0.06 -0.09 0.11
bd -0.14 0.06 -0.24 -0.04
Compare bc -0.59 0.10 -0.75 -0.42
bo 0.39 0.09 0.24 0.53
be -0.36 0.08 -0.49 -0.23
bu -0.33 0.10 -0.49 -0.17
bi 0.11 0.07 0.00 0.23
Interaction sigma 0.46 0.04 0.39 0.53
PART THREE
Shiny
Spearkers:潘冠臻,楊岳璁
PART FOUR
Conclusion
Speaker:Tanmoy Kundu