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Fertility Measures & Concepts

Complexities of Fertility Analysis


• Involves 2 individuals of opposite sex
• Risk is not universal in female population
– Fecundity
– Sexual activity
– Contraception/abortion
• Repeatable event
Crude Birth Rate

CBR = Births in the period 0 to T


Person-yrs lived 0 to T
(mid-year population)

• The CBR is often multiplied by 1,000 and


expressed per 1,000 in the population

– The CBR of Malawi from 1985-90 was 56.3


General Fertility Rate

GFR = Births in the period 0 to T


Person-yrs lived 0 to T
by women ages 15-50
(mid-year population)

• The GFR is also often multiplied by 1,000


and expressed per 1,000 in the population
Age-Specific Fertility Rates

ASFR = Births in the period 0 to T to women aged x to x+n


Person-yrs lived 0 to T by women aged x to x+n

Number of
Age Women Births ASFR
15-19 100,000 20,000 0.200
20-24 120,000 40,000 0.333
25-29 90,000 50,000 0.556
30-34 100,000 20,000 0.200
35-39 80,000 8,000 0.100
40-45 95,000 1,000 0.011
Total Fertility Rate
• Sum of all age specific fertility rates

ASFR
0.200
0.333
0.556
0.200
0.100
0.011

1.399
x 5 yrs
TFR=6.997
Variants of TFR
• Parity specific fertility rates
– Women at parity “p”
• Marital fertility rates
– Married women
Cohort Fertility
• The mean parity for a cohort of women
who have completed their fertility is that
cohort’s TFR
Parity Progression Ratio

Number of women at parity i+1 or more


PPR= Number of women at parity i or more

• Proportion of a cohort who had at least i


live births who went on to have at least
one more
• Box 5.4 (p. 105)
Reproduction Measures
• Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)
– The number of female births an average woman
would have if she lived through the end of her
reproductive span.

• Net Reproduction Rate (NRR)


– The average number of daughters that female
members of a birth cohort would bear during their
reproductive life span if they were subject to the
observed age-specific maternity rates and mortality
rates through their lifetimes.
– NRR=1 equals exact replacement fertility
Why are high birth rates so low?
Proximate Determinants of Fertility
• Marriage & Marital Disruption
• Sterility
• Postpartum Infecundability
• Fecundability
• Spontaneous Intrauterine Mortality
• Contraception
• Induced Abortion

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