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Situasi Energi Indonesia Dewasa Ini dan

Skenario Energi Menuju Tahun 2050


Herman Darnel Ibrahim
Adjunct Prof. [UNITEN, Malaysia] Dr. [ITB, Indonesia], M.Sc. [UMIST, UK], Ir. [ITB]
Anggota Dewan Energi Nasional RI

Seminar Energi dalam Rangka Sosialisasi DEN


Fakultas Teknik Universitas Lambung Mangkurat

Banjarbaru, 25 November 2013


Background Picture: Wayang Windu Geothermal Power Plant, West Java, Indonesia
Dewan Energi Nasional: Unsur dan Tugas
Dewan Energi Nasional [DEN] President As Vice President Minister Energy
National Energy Council Member: Chairman Vice Chairman Exec. Chairman
7 Ministers + 8 Stakeholder Rep.[SHR]
Minister Minister Minister Minister Minister Minister Minister
Transport Agriculture Industry Envir’ment Research Dev. Plan Finance

Academic SHR: Industry SHR: Consumer SHR: Environment Technology


Tumiran H. Darnel Ibrahim H Agustiawan SHR: SHR:
Rinaldy Eddie Widiono Agusman E Mukhtasor Widjajono

Energy Laws National National Stipulating Energy Policy


UU No. 30 Energy Energy Plan Energy Crisis Implementation
Year 2007 Policy [KEN] [RUEN] and Supervision
Emergency

Visi DEN: Terwujudnya


Ketahanan Energi Guna Mendukung Pembangunan Nasional Berkelanjutan

Energy Supply Security Economy [Competitiveness] Environmental Preservation


Dewan Energi Nasional: Unsur dan Tugas
Definisi DEN: Ketahanan Energi adalah suatu kondisi terjaminnya
ketersediaan energi, akses masyarakat terhadap energi pada
harga yang terjangkau [rasional] dalam jangka panjang dengan
tetap memperhatikan perlindungan terhadap lingkungan hidup.
• Energi dan sumber energi tersedia dengan cukup untuk kurun waktu
tertentu [jangka menengah dan panjang]
• Harga terjangkau kemampuan masyarakat [Kompetitif terhadap negara
lain]
• Tahan [tidak mudah terpengaruh] oleh gejolak lokal, regional maupun
internasional,
• Memiliki kemandirian dalam pengelolaan: managemen, teknologi,
transportasi dan pendistribusian,
• Memiliki kemampuan finansial untuk mengembangkan dan menjaga kondisi
dan performace sarana energi.
• Memiliki sarana infratsruktur [produksi, penyaluran penyimpanan dan
distribusi] yang cukup
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Bagian 1. Situasi Energi Indonesia
Dewasa Ini

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Situasi Energi Indonesia Dewasa Ini

 Energi sumber devisa, ekspor energi besar [gas dan batubara].


 Konsumsi energi relatif kecil , masih dibawah rata-rata dunia.
 Akses energi modern [listrik dan gas] belum menyeluruh
 BBM dan Listrik masih disubsidi, beban subsidi besar.
 Porsi penggunaan BBM besar [47%], penggunaan diluar
transportasi masih besar.
 Disparitas penggunaan energi antar daerah, khususnya antara
Jawa dan Luar Jawa.
 Infrastruktur penyediaan energi masih lemah. Kekurangan
kapasitas kilang dan pembangkit listrik.
 Pemanfaatan energi masih belum efisien, intensitas energi
relatif tinggi.
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Pendapatan Migas dan Pertambangan

Dalam Rp Trilyun
450
400 2012
350 2.3 88
88
300 77.4 190
1.5
250 66.8 110 110
1.1
200 52.3

150
272.5
100 221
184.7 190
50
0
2009 2010 2011 2012
Oil and Gas General Mining Others

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PDB dan Konsumsi Energi [Listrik] Per Kapita
50000

45000
USA [12536, 47266]
Jepang [7526, 38179]
40000

35000 OECD[7763, 36518]


GDP :USD per Kapita

30000 Negara OECD


25000

20000

15000
Dunia[2517, 9170]
10000
ASEAN[914, 2655] Malaysia[3444, 8185]
5000
China[2140, 3411]
Indonesia[572, 2251]
0
India[527, 1124] 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
Konsumsi Listrik: kWh per Kapita
Sumber Data: Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics in Japan 2011
Diterbitkan oleh The Energy Conservation Center of Japan

 Statistik: GDP suatu negara sebanding dengan konsumsi


energi ataupun listriknya. Untuk memperbesar GDP perlu
memperbesar penyediaan lsitrik.
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Rasio Elektrifikasi Per Propinsi [2009]

Rasio Elektrifikasi Nasional 2009 : 65%


NAD Category :
74,91%
> 60 %
Sumut
69,32% 41 - 60 %
Kaltim
Kalteng 68,37% Gorontalo 20 - 40 %
Riau + Kepri 44,33% 48,70% Sulut
54,66% 66,62%
Kalbar Malut
45,65% 47,81%
Sumbar Sumsel
68.72% 49,80% Sulteng
47,64%
Babel
Jambi 72,45% Sulsel
48.85% 54,90%
Jakarta Sultra
Bengkulu 100% Kalsel 38,21%
71,39% Maluku
50.08% Bali 55,36%
Lampung 74,42%
47,66%

Banten Jabar
72,11% 64,95% Jateng Jatim
70,60% 71,08% NTB NTT
Jogya 24.24% Papua + Irjabar
31.99%
79,64% 32,05%

Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources 2009

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Subsidi Energi Migas dan Listrik
Dalam Rp Trilyun
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Oil and LPG Electricity

Source: MEMR
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9
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Konsumsi Energi Primer dan Energi Final

Primary Energy 2010 Final Energy 2010


[MTOE] [%]

9 6
43 70 18
46

37 31

Oil Industry Transportation


Natural Gas Households Services

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Disparitas Konsumsi Energi Indonesia

Sumatera:
SEC: 11%
SOP: 21% Kalimantan: Sulawesi:
ER: 48-75% SEC: 3% SEC: 3%
PES: C;NG;O;H;G SOP: 6% SOP: 7%
ER: 44-71% ER: 38-66%
PES:C;NG;O PES: NG;H;G

Java and Bali:


SEC: 80.5%
Other Islands:
SOP: 60%
SEC: 2.5%
ER:65-99%
SOP: 7 %
PES: NG;H;G
Notes: ER: 24 -55%
SEC: Share of Electricity Cons;umption. PES: NG;H;G
SOP: Shareof Population
ER: Electrification Ratio
PES: Primary Energy Source; C=Coal;NG=Natural Gas; O=Oil;H=Hydro;G=Geothermal
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Sumberdaya, Cadangan, Produksi dan Konsumsi
Energi Domestik Indonesia [2009]
In Million Ton Oil Equivalent [MTOE]

Oil Gas Situation 2009 Coal RE*


7961 8285 Resources=21963 5717 606
1249 4208 Reserve=15785 10328 NA
570 2747 Proven Reserve=6067 2750 NA

Copyright ® H Darnel Ibrahim


53 78 Production=289 147 11**
39.0 0 Import*** =39 0.03 0
[26.0] [41] [Export]***=176 [109]
66 37 Consumption=152 38 11
•In MTOE per Year
** Including Biomass [kayu bakar], *** Crude and Refined Oil
Source of Data: Indonesia Energy and Economy Statistic 2009, MEMR
Minyak Bumi, Indonesia Net Oil Importer

Key Figures 2010: Issues:


• High Consumption 44% of Mix • Exploration Activity
• Resources 54 Billion Barrels • Proven Reserve Degrades
• Proven Reserve 3.4 Billion Barrels • Reserve is critical [is not big]
• Production 330 Million Barrels • Refinery capacity is not adequate
• Total Import 260 Million Barrels • Buffer Stock 21 days of daily
• Import of Refined Oil 140 M Barrels consumption
• Consumption 440 M Barrels • Large refined oil import [36%]

Challenges:
• Reduce consumption, conserve oil, for
transport only
• Increase exploration activities
• Increase capacity of refinery
• Buffer stock to secure supply
• Removal of subsidy.
Gas Alam, Ekspornya Besar

Key Figures 2010 : Issues:


• Resources 325 TCF • Export greater than domestic use
• Proven Reserve 106 TCF • Lack of Exploration Activity
• Production 3.0 TCF • Proven Reserve Degrades
• Export of Gas 1.6 TCF • Reserve is critical [is not big]
• Import of Gas, LPG only • Lack of pipelines infrastructure
• Consumption 1.4 TCF • Lack of supply for domestic

Challenges:
• Control export to conserve resources
• Increase exploration activities
• Expand the use of gas in industry,
transport and houses
• Build storages, LNG terminal and
LPG filling stations
• Development of pipelines network
Batubara, Ekspornya Sangat Besar

Key Figures 2010: Issues:


• Resources 104 Billion Tons [BT] • Too much export than domestic use
• Proven Reserve 5 BT • Lack of Exploration Activity
• Production 350 Million Tons • Proven Reserve Degrades
• Export 275 Million Tons • No depletion premium regulation
• Import 0 Tons • Reserve is is not so big
• Consumption 75 Million Tons • Lack of transport infrastructures
• CBM potential 453 TCF • Domestic supply not so secure

Challenges:
• Control export to conserve resources
• Increase exploration activities
• Development of integrated transport
infrastructures
• Development of national stockpiles
• Exploration and exploitation of CBM
as new energy sources
Geotermal, Berjalan Agak Tersendat

Key Figures 2010: Issues:


• Resources 28000 MWe • Project preparation survey and FS
• Proven Reserve 2288 MWe • Minimum Exploration Activity
• Capacity in Production 1189 MW • Forestry and National Park area
• New project planned part of 2nd 10000 • Pricing was not financially attractive
MW project 4000 MW • Tender mechanism [by local gov]
• Java Bali 1970 MW outside 2000 MW • Project Funding

Challenges:
• Funding for project survey and
preparation
• Speeding up of exploration and
development
• Decision making for pricing
• Improve tendering process
• Project funding for small scale
Aneka Energi Terbarukan, Bergerak Perlahan

Key Figures 2010: Issues:


• Abundant resources hydro of 75000 • Less [risky] activity in project
and solar energy of 1200000 MWe preparation: survey and exploration.
• Slow project implementation, almost • Pricing is not attractive as PLN tariff is
not growing. relatively low
• Biofuel development slow as price of • Most player are local, weak in capital
oil relatively low [subsidized]. and management capacity.

Challenges:
• Funding for project preparation,
survey and FS
• Decision making for better pricing or
incentives
• Capacity building for local and small
players
• Domestic project funding for small
scale
Penyediaan Listrik, Krisis On and Off
Key Figures 2010: Issues:
• Slow development, less than 10000 • Costs are all market price, tariff is
MW new capacity in the past 10 years. regulated.
• Energy sales growing steadily 6 to 7 % • Lack of generation and TnD facilities
per annum. development.
• Out of 8000 MW IPP PPA, only 1060 • Old generation assets.
MW completed. • On and off repetitive Power Shortages.
• Still 70% electrification ratio and more • Still high cost of production ~ 12 cents
than 10000 villages un-electrified. [old and oil fired plants]

Challenges:
• Tariff adjustment to reduce subsidy
and improve PLN financial.
• Deployment of fund to escape from
power shortage outside Java.
• Funding to reduce production cost
• Funding for remedy of transmission
and distribution congestion
Akses Energi di Perdesaan, Terkesampingkan
Key Figures 2010: Issues:
• Electrified villages 60000 of 71000 • Limited fund for rural electrification
• National electrification ratio 65% only for around 250.000 conn. a year.
• Around 25 million unelectrified • Electricity supply from PLN grid is
families mainly are at rural areas limited due to power shortage.
• The use of Kerosene [subsidized] still 4 • Local government participation on rural
Million kiloliters [rural families] energy still limited [budget].
• Gov provided LPG tank for 40 million • Development of LPG filling plant
families [Kerosene substitution] station [SPBBE]

Challenges:
• Provide more funding for rural
electrification
• Development of facilities for providing
LPG at rural areas.
• Improve local government participation
• Organizational improvement for rural
energy development
Bagian 2. Energi Indonesia Terhadap Dunia

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Posisi Energi Indonesia Terhadap Dunia [2009]

Features Total % of World


[2009] World Rank
Land Area 1.9 M sq km 1.3 16

Population 230 Miln. 3.41 4


Republic Indonesia GDP $ 540 Bln. 0.95 18
Electricity 150 TWh 0.9 15
Energy 152 MTOE 1.5 13

Elect. Ratio 65% W:80% NA

HDI 0.600 NA 111

Dalam Energy Indonesia 13 Besar Dunia


” Energy Flow” Indonesia: Ekspor Besar
[2009]
Unit: MTOE [Million Ton Oil Equivalent]
Reserve Production and Supply Utilization
Fossil National Total of Energy
Coal Energy Prod. National Export
10328
Coal
Prod. Supply [Primary] Coal Export 109
147 288 176
MTOE
Ratio R/P 277 329
70 Natural Gas Export 41
Natural
Gas
Gas
78 Oil Export 26
4208
Power Gen
38

Copyright ® H Darnel Ibrahim


MTOE Oil Coal
Ratio R/P 44
Domestic
54 52 Consump Natural Gas 37 Industry
Hydro 1 - [Final] 46
Oil
1249 Geothermal 4 tion
Oil 66 Transportation
Biomass 6
MTOE 152 [Final1 33
Ratio R/P
24
Import [Oil] 41 Renewable 11 Commercial +
Houses 28
1 MTOE = 11.62 TWh [Terawatt hours]; 1 MTOE = 6.85 MBOE [Million Barrel Oil Equivalent]
Total Reserve 15786 MTOE; Ratio of Reserve to Annual Production = 57 Years
Source of Data: Ministry of EMR, BP Migas, BPH Migas, Japan Statistic, and Estimates
Cadangan dan Konsumsi Energi Indonesia
Terhadap Dunia [2008]
Energy Unit Indonesia World*
Oil Reserve Billion Barrels 8 1208
Oil Reserve per capita TOE per capita 5.3 27.2
Gas Reserve TCF 160 6405
Gas Reserve per capita TOE per capita 18.0 25.2
Coal Reserve Billion Tons 21 909
Coal Reserve per capita TOE per capita 46.9 78.2
Electricity Consumption TWh 126.5 16733
Electricity per capita kWh per capita 567 2610
Primary Energy [PE] Cons. MTOE 139.8 11200
PE Cons per capita TOE 0.62 1.75
Energy Intensity TOE per $ Million 485 201
* Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics in Japan 2009, The EDMC Japan
Posisi Pengembangan ET dan Emisi Karbon
Indonesia Terhadap Dunia [2006]
Energy Unit Indonesia World*
Primary Energy Consumption MTOE 127 10583
Renewable Energy MTOE 6.8 547
Renewable Energy Share % 5.3 5.1
Fossil Energy MTOE 120.2 9308
Fossil Energy Share % 95.2 88.1
Oil Energy MTOE 59.1 3846
Oil Energy Share % 46.5 36.3
Electr. Share in Final Energy % 11.6 19.2
CO2 Emission Million Ton 336 27347
CO 2 per TOE Primary Energy Ton 2.65 2.58
CO2 Emission per capita Ton per capita 1.51 4.20
* Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics in Japan 2009, The EDMC Japan
Posisi Kelistrikan Indonesia Terhadap Beberapa
Negara dan Dunia
Data untukTahun 2008
Unit Indonesia Dunia ASEAN9 OECD30 USA India China Malaysia
Jumlah Populasi Juta 227 6673 568 1190 304 1140 1325 27
Kapasitas Terpasang Pembangkit GW 32 4500 120 2400 995 170 800 21
Konsumsi Listrik TWh 130 16802 519 9238 3811 601 2835 93
GDP Purchasing Power Parity USD Milyar 511 61189 1508 43457 14369 1281 4520 221
Kapasitas pe Kapita Watt 141 674 211 2017 3273 149 604 778
Konsumsi Listrik per Kapita kWh 573 2518 914 7763 12536 527 2140 3444
GDP per kapita [USD] USD 2251 9170 2655 36518 47266 1124 3411 8185
Sumber: Handbook of Energy and Economy Statistics in Japan 2011,Energy Conservation Center, Japan 2011

 Kapasitas terpasang per kapita Indonesia 141 watt, jauh dibawah


negara maju [2 kilowatt] dan bahkan dibawah India.
 Konsumsi per kapita Indonesia sekitar seperempat dari konsumsi per
kapita dunia. Hanya sedikit lebih tinggi dari India.
 Mungkin juga ini karena penduduk Indonesia yang “terlalu banyak”.
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Ekspor dan Impor Minyakbumi

Import Export
Crude Oil : 18.1 MTOE Crude Oil : 20.2 MTOE
Refined Oil: 20.9 MTOE Refined Oil: 5.6 MTOE

Source: US Energy Information Administration Source: MEMR


[EIA] and MEMR Skenario Energi 2050 for Universitas Lambung
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Ekspor Gas Alam Indonesia:
No. 7 Dunia [Produsen No. 11]
Gas Export 2010 [%] 10 Largest Gas Exporter 2011*

Australia 0.87
19.5 0.8 Malaysia 1.09
4.8 43.5
6.4 United States 1.14
6.4
18.5 Indonesia 1.50
Algeria 1.96
Netherlands 2.05
Canada 3.27
Japan South Korea Qatar 3.36
Taiwan China Norway 3.53
Mexico Singapore
Others Russia 7.08
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00
*Source: US Energy Information Administration [EIA] and MEMR TCF
and www.indexmundi.com
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Ekspor Batubara Indonesia:
No.1 Dunia [Produsen No. 5]
Coal Export 2010 [%] 10 Largest Coal Exporter 2011*
Kazakhstan 34
18 17
4 South Africa 72
6 17
10
14 14 Columbia 90

USA 110

Russia 140

India Cina Australia 315


Japan South Korea
Taiwan Europe Indonesia 340
Others Other Asian
0 100 200 300 400
*Source: US Energy Information Administration [EIA], MEMR Million Tons
and www.worldcoal.org
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Negara Produsen dan Pengguna Batubara
Untuk Listrik Terbesar di Dunia
10 Negara Produsen Batubara Terbesar* Negara Dengan Listrik Batubara Terbesar*

Kazakhstan 117 Germany 44


Poland 139 USA 45
Greece 55
Germany 189
Morocco 55
South Africa 253 Czech Rep 56
Russia 334 Israel 63
Indonesia 376 India 69
Australia 414 Kazakhstan 70
Australia 76
India 585
PR China 79
USA 1004 Poland 90
PR China 3471 South Africa 93
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 0 50 100
Juta Ton Percent

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Bagian 3. Skenario Konsumsi Energi Menuju
Tahun 2050

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Asumsi Dasar Proyeksi Energi:
Energi “Bahanbakar” Pembangunan Ekonomi

Economy:
Industrial Based Economy
Economy: Agriculture
Economy: Agriculture Services
Agriculture More Industrialized [Domestic] Tourism
Raw Natural Resource Processed Natural Resource GDP per Capita Above Average
Simple Industry Tourism Big Five to Ten in Economy Size
Tourism Energy: Energy:
Energy: Cons. Above World Average Cons. Today’s Dev Countries Av.
Cons. Below World Average Per Capita Electr. 2500 kWh Per Capita Electr. ~7000 kWh
Per Capita Electr. 650 kWh Primary Energy 500 MTOE Primary Energy 1100 MTOE
Primary Energy 160 MTOE More Renewable + Efficient Much More Renewable+EE
Export Gas and Coal Coal and Gas for Domestic Import Gas [Coal?]

2010 2030 2050


Emerging Economy Country Developed Country
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Skenario Pengembangan Ekonomi dan Energi
Indonesia Terhadap Dunia Menuju 2050
45000
40000 Japan 2006
USA 2006
35000
GDP USD per Capita

Developed Countries
30000
25000 Average OECD 2006

Copyright ® H Darnel Ibrahim


20000
15000
10000
World Average 2006
5000 Asia Average
Indonesia China
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
Primary Energy TOE per Capita
* Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics in Japan 2009, The EDMC Japan
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Proyeksi Populasi dan PDB Menuju 2050

Proyeksi 2010 2025 2050


Penduduk, Juta 238 271 307

PDB per Kapita, USD 3000 15000 65000

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Proyeksi Konsumsi Listrik Menuju 2050
Proyeksi 2010 2025 2050
Konsumsi per kapita, kWh 620 2000 7000

Kapasitas pembangkit, 35 115 430


GW

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Proyeksi Konsumsi Energi Final Menuju 2050
Proyeksi 2010 2025 2050

Konsumsi Energi Final, MTOE 102 245 640

Per Kapita, TOE 0.43 0.9 2.1

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Proyeksi Konsumsi Energi Primer Menuju 2050

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Indikator Kunci Proyeksi Energi Menuju 2050

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Profil Penggunaan Energi Final Per Sektor
Menuju 2050
120 Final Energy 2030
Persen

5.4
100 11.5
52.8
80 30.3
60
40
Industry Transport
20 Household Services

0 Final Energy 2050

Copyright ® H Darnel Ibrahim


2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
6.8
Services 6 6 5 6 7 10.5
Household 18 15 12 11 11 51.3
31.3
Transportation 31 30 30 32 31
Industry 46 50 53 51 51
Industry Transport
Tahun Household Services

Industry Transportation Household Services


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Profil Konsumsi Listrik Menuju 2050

Electricity Consumption  Electrification Ratio in


3000
2020 : 90%, in 2025:
2500
~100%.
Terawatt hours

2000  Cons. per Capita in


1500 2030: 2600 kWh, World

Copyright ® H Darnel Ibrahim


1000 Average in 2006: 2400
500 kWh,
0  Cons. per capita in 2050:
00 10 20 30 40 50
High 79 148 390 910 1680 2710
~6800 kWh, OECD
Moderate 79 148 330 710 1330 2200 Average in 2006:7700
kWh.
 Consumption in 2030:
Moderate: Growth 7.0%, Elasticity: 1.06 ~5 folds of 2010, and in
High: Growth 7.5%, Elasticity: 1,04
2050: 3 folds of 2030.
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Profil Konsumsi Energi Primer Menuju 2050
Primary Energy  Consumption per Capita
1400 in 2030: 1.7 TOE, World
1200 Average in 2006 1.64
1000 TOE.
800  Cons. Per Capita in 2050:
MTOE

600 3.2 TOE, OECD Average in

Copyright ® H Darnel Ibrahim


400 2006:~ 4.7 TOE
200  Consumption in 2030: ~3
0 folds of 2010, and in
00 10 20 30 40 50
High 103 159 310 590 920 1240
2050: ~2 folds of 2030.
Moderate 103 159 280 480 740 1050  Consumption in 2030:
~480 MTOE, in 2050:
Moderate Growth 4.8%, E:0.73 ~1000 MTOE [World in
High Growth 5,3 %, E:0,72 2050: 21000 MTOE]
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Bagian 4. Skenario Penyediaan Energi
dan Energi Mix Menuju 2050

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Pertimbangan Menentukan Proyeksi Energy Mix

Projection of
Consumption to 2050 Supply Strategy:
 Maximize RE.
Approximate RE
Supply Capability
 Minimize the
Use of Oil
Approximate of Fossil  Optimize Gas
Supply Capability Energy and New Energy
Mix  Secure with
Prioritize Renewable

Copyright ® H Darnel Ibrahim


and Domestic Energy Coal [Balance
Production
Reduce the Carbon Cost].
Emission[Less Fossil]
 Nuclear as Last
Economy of Cost and Option.
the Energy Security
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Karakteristik Sumber Energi Terbarukan
Geo- Biomass Biomass
No Description Hydro Solar Wind Ocean
thermal Waste Biofuel
1200 240 175 M
1 Potential 28 GWe 75 GWe 9GWe 50GWe
GWe GWe kiloliter
95
2 Supply Capability 25 GWe 45 GWe 120 GWe 9 GWe 12 GWe 30 GWe
MTOE
Seasonal Intermit Intermit Continu
Availability and Continuo Intermitt Affected
[Semi tent tent ous
3 Base Load us [Base ent [Low by
Base [Low [Low [Base
Capability Load] Density] Weather
Load] Density] Density] Load]
Medium Small to Small to Small to
4 Capacity Scale Small Medium NA
to Big Big Medium Medium
Technology
5 Ready Ready Ready Ready RnD Ready Ready
Readiness
Medium Low Medium
6 Investment Cost High High Medium NA
High Medium High
Production Cost
7 50-80 30-120 200-500 50-140 NA 50-120 NA
USD per MWh*
*Source: REN21 Renewables 2010 Global Status Report Copyright ® H Darnel Ibrahim
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Skenario Kemampuan Penyediaan Energi
Menuju 2050
Approximate Supply
Reserve and Resource*
Capability
No Energy Source
Reserve Resource C S MTOE Eq.
Unit
[C] [S] [%] [%] PE MWe
1.Renewable Energy
1.1Biomass [Biofuel] 30 175 10^6 kliter 60 95 NA
1.2Geothermal 2300 28000 MWe 90 85 25200
1.3Hydro 6000 75000 MWe 60 24 45000
1.4Ocean NA 240 GWe 5 5.4 12000
1.5Solar NA 1200 GWe 10 18 120000
1.6Biomass [Waste] NA 50000 MWe 60 55 30000
1.7Other RE NA 10000 MWe 30 4.8 3000
2.Fossil Energy
2.1Oil 7990 56600 10^6 Barrel 100 50 5298 NA
2.2Coal 21130 104940 10^6 Ton 100 30 26324 NA
2.3Natural Gas 159.6 334.5 TCF 100 50 8242 NA
2.4CBM 0 453.3 TCF 100 20 2286 NA
2.5Nuclear NA 34112 Ton U 50 1835 NA
3.Total 1.1-1.7 [RE] 286 235200
4.Total 2.1-2.5 43985 NA
* Most of the data is from Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Copyright ® H Darnel Ibrahim
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Proyeksi Mampu Pasok Energi Domestik
In MTOE

Description Estimated Projection to Projection to


Potential 2050 2100
Renewable 684/year 286/year 482/year
Energy
Fossil Energy 96399 42150 80272
Cumulative of NA 49300 109072
Supply
Cumulative of NA 22600 75120
Consumption
Our domestic energy sources is enough to provide the
projected consumption until year 2100 [Provided we
have good control of energy export]
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Energy Sustainability: Konservasi dan
Keseimbangan Sekuriti, Ekonomi dan Lingkungan

 Renewables
and Low
Carbon is a
Necessity.
Security Economy
 Security of
of Supply of Supply
Uphold Supply and

Copyright ® H Darnel Ibrahim


Energy Price is Very
Efficiency Important.
[EE]  Economy of
Supply can not
Gas, Renewable, and “Nuclear” be Disregarded.
Low Carbon and Renewable Energy
Environmental
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Strategi Energy Mix Menuju 2050
Maksimumkan ET , Minimumkan BBM; Gas dan Batubara
Tulang Punggung Pengamanan, PLTN Pilihan Terakhir
Maximize RE: Minimize Oil Optimize Gas Coal to Secure Nuclear the
 Purchase at [Gasoline]: and New Energy Supply and Last Choice:
Higher Price.  To Reduce [CBM, Fuel Price:  Domestic and
 Reduce CO2 Cell]:  Production Imported Non
National
Emission. Energy Costs  Lower CO2 Cost Cheaper. Nuclear Energy
 Better Emission  Provide Not Secure
 More Secure
Security of to the World’s  Provide Security of  To Reduce
Supply. Oil Price Security of Supply. CO2
Dynamics Supply. Impacts: Emission.

Copyright ® H Darnel Ibrahim


Impacts: Impacts:  CO2 Emission Impacts:
 Average  Cost to Impacts: Increase  High
Production Develop RE  Gas Infra-  Mining Investment
Coast and Other structure Environment Cost
Increased. Energy. Investment  Risk of Fatal
Accident
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Ramalan Tren Biaya Produksi Energi*

* Prof Gustav Grob, President of ISEO


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Skenario Energi Mix Menuju 2050 [MTOE]

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Skenario Energi Mix Menuju 2050 [%]

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Skenario Energi Mix Menuju 2050
1200.0
2030 [%]
1000.0
23 29.0
Energi Primer [MTOE]

26.0 22.0
800.0

600.0

Minyak Gas Batubara EBT


400.0
2050 [%]
200.0
30 20.0
24.0
0.0 26.0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Tahun

Biomass Biofuel Biomass Listrik Panas Bumi Energi Air


Energi Laut Energi Solar ET Lainnya Minyak Minyak Gas Batubara EBT
Gas Batubara Energi Baru

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Indikator Emisi Karbon Menuju 2050

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Bagian 5: Pokok-Pokok Kebijakan Energi
Menuju 2050

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1. Sasaran KEN 2050

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2. Prioritas Penggunaan Sumber Energi

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3. Mengubah Paradigma Bahwa Sumber Energi
Adalah Modal Pembangunan

 Walau jumlah sumberdaya energi banyak dan


beragam, Indonesia bukanlah negara yang kaya
energi.
 Ekspor sumber energi [migas dan batubara] tidak
memiliki nilai tambah ekonomi.
 Kedepan kita perlu lebih konservatif dalam ekspor
gas dan batubara.
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4. Mengurangi Subsisdi BBM dan Listrik Secara
Bertahap Sampai Tanpa Subsidi

 UU Energi pasal 7 ayat 1 mengamanatkan penetapan


harga energi berdasar keekonomiannya.
 Dengan konsumsi energi yang semakin besar dan
biaya energi yang semakin mahal subsidi merupakan
“bom waktu” yang membahayakan sekuriti
pasokan.
 Subsisdi BBM dan Listrik dikurangi secara bertahap
dan subsidi diberikan langsung kepada kelompok
masyarakat tidak mampu [UU Energi Pasl 7 ayat 2].
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5. Pemerintah Memastikan Tersedianya Sumber
dan Infrastruktur Energi Sesuai Kebutuhan

 Melakukan eksplorasi untuk menambah cadangan


energi sesuai kebutuhan pengamanan.
 Tersedianya akses energi modern [listrik dan gas].
Mendekati ~100% pada 2025.
 Energi harus ada duluan. Pertumbuhan investasi
keenergian proporsional dengan pertumbuhan
ekonomi.
 Pemerintah memastikan dibangunnya sarana
produksi [termasuk kilang], transportasi, storage dan
distribusi energi.
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6. Memprioritaskan ET dan Energi Bersih dan
Mengembangkan Industri ET Nasional

 Prioritaskn pengembangan energi bersih dengan


tetap menjaga daya saing harga energi nasional.
 Pengembangan energi murah seperti batubara
memberi ruang yang lebih besar untuk pengembangan
energi bersih.
 Pengembangan ET solar dan bimassa adalah dengan
asumsi dan harapan semua peralatan produksi
energi akan dibuat dalam negeri.
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7. Minimumkan Biaya Energi: Industri Dekat
Sumber Energi , Gas dan Batubara Tulang Punggung

 Kembangkan industri disekitar lokasi sumber


energi [luar Jawa].
 Biaya produksi listrik dari sumber batubara dan gas
secara umum lebih murah dari pada sumber ET dan
nuklir.
 Sumberdaya energi gas [termasuk CBM] dan
batubara kita cukup besar . Gunakan sebagai
pengaman pasokan jangka panjang.
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8. Ciptakan Kestabilan Kebijakan dan Regulasi
Sektor Energi.

 Kita memerlukan investasi keenergian yang sangat


besar [5% PDB]. Kebijakan dan Regulasi harus Firm
[tidak berubah-ubah].
 Peraturan perundang undangan energi yang stabil
sangat penting bagi kestabilan dunia usaha.
 Kestabilan dunia usaha berkontribusi terhadap
efisisensi biaya dan security of supply.
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9. Bangun dan Perkuat Korporasi Keenergian
Nasional

 Structure should follow the strategy. [Adequate


organizations must be in place] . Korporasi baru
mungkin diperlukan.
 Tantangan begitu besar. Kita jangan sentimentil
mempertahankan hanya ada satu BUMN
perminyakan, gas dan listrik.
 Rancangan organisasi keenergian adalah salah satu
faktor kunci ketahanan energi masa depan.
Pengorganisasian menjadi bagian Grand Strategy.
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Penutup
 Karena penduduknya banyak Indonesia bukanlah negara
kaya energi. Hati-hati!
 Konsumsi energi Indonesia masih relatif rendah.
Pertumbuhan konsumsi kedepan masih tinggi. Waspada!
 Kedepan energi diposisikan sebagai modal pembangunan
karena itu ekspor energi kita harus direm. Ingat anak cucu!
 Strategi; maksimalkan ET, minimalkan minyak, batubara
dan gas sebagai tulang punggung, PLTN pillihan terakhir.
 Kebijakan bauran energi; keseimbangan diantara sekuriti
penyediaan, lingkungan dan ekonomi biaya energi.
 Manfaatkan teknologi di semua sisi untuk konservasi dan
penyediaan energi berkarbon rendah .
 Sesuai UU atur harga energi berdasar kekonomian dan
alihkan subsidi kepada orang bukan komoditas.
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Terima Kasih Atas Perhatiannya

www.den.go.id
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Lampiran 1: US Energy Information Agency
Indonesia Country Analysis Brief Overview [Part 1]

 Indonesia is reorienting energy production away from exports to serve


its growing domestic consumption.
 Indonesia is a significant and well-established player in the international
oil and gas industry, though production has failed to keep up with
demand in recent years.
 International oil companies, particularly Chevron, dominate Indonesia's
upstream oil sector. State-owned energy company PT Pertamina must
balance its needs as a corporation against its mandate as a national oil
company to meet domestic demand.
 Aging infrastructure and fields suggest the country will struggle to meet
production targets in the short term.
 Indonesia's refinery output primarily serves the growing domestic
market.
 Natural gas production has increased by over a third since 2005. While
Indonesia still exports about half of its natural gas, domestic
consumption is increasing.
Source: http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.
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Lampiran 1 : US Energy Information Agency
Indonesia Country Analysis Brief Overview [Part2]

 Indonesia was the world's eighth largest net exporter of natural gas in 2011.
The majority of exports go to Japan as LNG shipments and to Singapore via
pipeline connections.
 Indonesia was the third-largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in
2011, following Qatar and Malaysia. Expected growth in gas demand led the
government to pursue policies that secure domestic LNG supplies for the
local market.
 In 2011, Indonesia became the world's largest exporter of coal by weight.
 Indonesia has 6.1 billion short tons of recoverable coal.
 Indonesia's government encourages the use of coal in the power sector, due
to relatively abundant domestic supply and as a way to reduce the use of
expensive diesel and fuel oil.
 Generation capacity growth in Indonesia has lagged behind the pace of
electricity demand growth, leading to power shortages and a low
electrification ratio.
 Indonesia was the third largest geothermal generator in the world in 2011.
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Biodata Herman Darnel Ibrahim
Anggota Dewan Energi Nasional RI 2009-2014
Herman Darnel Ibrahim yang akrab dipanggil HDI, lahir di Payakumbuh tahun 1954. HDI
adalah Anggota DEN periode 2009-2014 dari unsur Pemangku Kepentingan, dan Direktur PLN
periode 2003-2008. Disamping itu HDI juga menjadi Advisor pada beberapa perusahaan, dan sebagai
Analis dalam bidang Energi yang sering menjadi pembicara pada forum keenergian nasional dan
internasioal.
Setelah tamat SMA di Payakumbuh akhir tahun 1972, HDI melanjutkan pendidikan ke ITB Bandung, dan lulus S1
[Ir.] Elektro pada 1978. Tamat ITB ia langsung masuk PLN dan pada tahun 1986 ia memperoleh beasiswa program
S2 di University of Manchester Inggris dan lulus sebagai Master of Science dalam bidang Sistem Kelistrikan pada
1988. Pada tahun 1995 sambil tetap menjadi eksekutif PLN ia mengambil program S3 di ITB dan lulus sebagai
Doktor pada 2004. Sejak 2009 ia diangkat sebagai Adjunct Professor di UNITEN Malaysia.
Selama hampir 30 tahun dari tahun 1979 sampai tahun 2008, HDI berkarier di PT PLN Persero. Sebelum
menjadi Direktur Transmisi dan Distribusi PLN pada 2003, beberapa posisi penting yang pernah dipegangnya di
PLN adalah: Direktur Niaga PT Indonesia Power [anak perusahaan PLN] dari tahun 1998 sampai tahun 2000, dan
Direktur SDM dan Organisasi PT Indonesia Power, dari tahun 2000 sampai tahun 2003, serta Dirut PT Cogindo
DayaBersama [anak perusaan PT Indonesia Power] dari 1998 sampai 1999.
HDI sangat aktif dalam organisasi profesi bidang Energi dan saat ini ia duduk sebagai Wakil Ketua Dewan Pakar
Masyarakat Energi Terbarukan Indonesia [METI], Dewan Penasehat Asosiasi Panasbumi Indonesia [API], Dewan
Penasehat Masyarakat Ketenagalistrikan Indonesia [MKI], dan Dewan Penasehat Asosiasi Kontraktor Listrik
Indonesia [AKLI]. HDI adalah Ketua Umum API periode 2001-2004.
HDI juga aktif pada organisasi tingkat Internasional yaitu sebagai Chairman Indonesian National Committee of
CIGRE [International Council of Large Electric Systems] sejak 2006, dan sejak 2010 menjadi anggota Dewan Direktur
International Geothermal Association [IGA], yang sekretariatnya berada di Jerman, serta Chairman IGA Asia Pacific
Regional Branch [APRB] .
Kantor: Gedung DEN Lantai 4, Jl. Gatot Subroto Kav. 49 Jakarta 12950,
Telepon: 021 5292 1621; Email: hermandarnel@den.go.id