Hydrology – Turning Rainfall in

to River Flow
Ross Woods
NIWA Christchurch
r.woods@niwa.co.nz
 Context
• Second of 3 river-related talks
• Hydrology Stats (“how much - how often?”)
• From Rainfall to River Flow (“how does it work?”)
• Inundation (“how deep?”)
 Outline

1. Introduction: Hydrological Cycle

2. How Floods Happen: Hydrological Processes
3. Not All Floods are the same
– Different types of rivers – classification
– Storms change over time, and in space
4. Flood Analysis for Design and Forecasting
Queentown, NZ.
(Water in both photos is
nearly at the
windowsills of the hotel
in the centre of the
photos.)
29 September 1878

16 November 1999
(photo: Otago Daily Times. Dunedin)
Clutha River
November
1999
Insurance
Payout: $46
million

If we
understand
floods, we can
plan better, and
forecast better
 Manawatu Feb 2004

http://www.ourregion.co.nz
Horizons RC, FRST
 1. Introduction: Hydrological
Cycle and Catchment

• Concept of a
catchment
• Most of the time,
things happen slowly
• During a flood, some
parts of the cycle are
very active
 Annual Runoff and Rain
mm/year
0 - 400
400 - 800 Rainfall
800 - 1200
1200 - 1600
1600 - 2400
2400 - 3200
River Runoff 3200 - 4800
4800 - 20000
No Data
 Month of the Year with Most Flow

Data sources: NIWA, RCs, Energy industry

2. Hydrological Processes for Floods
• Can look at this at several scales
(kilometres, metres, mm) – we will think at
kilometres and metres.
• Kilometre scale – headwaters generate flood
runoff, and the lower reaches of the river
transport these floods
Kilometer-scale Hydrological Processes
Waimakariri
Kilometre-scale Hydrological Processes
Floodplain fed by Mountain Runoff
Orographic Rainfall Processes
 Flood Generation & Routing
Heavy rain falls for long enough, over a
wide enough area, some of it runs off into
streams, and travels down the river network
Flow
Upstream
(m3/s) Downstream

Flow Time
(m3/s)

Time
Time
 Metre-scale Hydrological Processes
for Floods - 1
• Infiltration Excess
Runoff – It rains so hard
that water can’t get into
the soil, and instead
produces flood runoff
• Affected by soil type,
land cover, urbanisation
• Quantified by soil
hydraulic conductivity
Hillside Stream

Cross-section
 Metre-scale Hydrological Processes
for Floods - 2
• Saturation Excess
Runoff – there’s so much
rain that there’s no room
in the soil to store it, so it
produces runoff
• Affected by time of year,
vegetation, soil thickness,
position on slope
• Quantified by soil water
Hillside Stream deficit, and locally by soil-
topographic index
Cross-section
 Metre-scale Hydrological Processes
for Floods - 3

• Subsurface stormflow
– water moves through
the soil so quickly that
it can make floods.
• Affected by steepness,
vegetation, soil depth

Hillside
Stream
Cross-section
 3. Not All Floods are the same –
River Types
• The two most important factors controlling flood
size are the climate and the area of catchment (km2)
• Catchment area – Small vs Large, from a few
hectares up to more than 10,000 km2
• Climate - Dry vs wet, ranging from 400 mm/y in
Central Otago to more than 10,000 mm/y in Alps
• These two factors are important in many flood
estimation methods.
• Other factors can come into play, depending on
location: geology, urban drainage, vegetation,
topography, river network, seasonality
Mountain –
Large, Wet
At kilometre scale,
orographic rainfall
processes are
very important

At metre scale,
subsurface
stormflow is the
key runoff
generation
process here
Lowland –
Smaller, Drier
More likely to be
affected by
convective rain

At metre scale,
saturation excess
runoff is the key
runoff generation
process here
 3. Not All Floods are the same –
Time variation
• Within-storm variability

• Between-storm variability – (seasonal

differences, also mention storm depth )
 Rainfall-Runoff Response
25 6528

Flow is more damped

20 than rain because of 5120

Rain
catchment averaging
Rain mm/15mins

15
(mm/ Delay between rain peak 3840

15 mins) and flow peak because of

10
travel distances in 2560

catchment
5 1280
Flow (l/s)

0 0
30-Apr-1999 1-May 2-May
 3. Not All Floods are the same –
Space variation
• Within-catchment variability of rain, slope,
vegetation, location in river network
 Rain Varies From Place to Place
Floods are very senstitive to this

Weather radar image,

200km across Weather radar image,
15 km across
 Waipaoa Catchment Soil Properties
Soils that hold less water make bigger floods
 Waipaoa Catchment Land Cover
Floods tend to be smaller in forested
areas, other things being equal
 Waipaoa Catchment Topography and
River Network
River networks control
Steeper land can hold less timing of floods from the
water in the soil different sub-catchments
 4. Typical Flood Analyses
• Design Flood Estimation – what is the flood that
will typically only occur once in 50 (100) years?
Used for planning, especially flood protection
measures. Two commonly-used methods
1. Rainfall-runoff models (e.g. Rational Method)
2. Regional Flood Estimation (Charles covered this)
• Flood Forecasting – how big will tomorrow’s
flood be? Used for forecasting, and also as a
mitigation measure where protection is tricky
1. Rainfall-runoff models (same as above)
2. Flood routing models
 Rainfall-runoff Models – 1
• Rational method – just estimates the peak
• Often used for small-catchment design
• Q = c i A / 3.6
• Q – flood peak (m3/s)
• c – runoff coefficient (dimensionless – local
knowledge!)
• i – “1 in T year” rainfall intensity for appropriate
duration (mm/h - HIRDS), minus “losses”
• A – area of catchment (km2)
 Example: Wanaka
• Need design flood of various return periods for a
small stream in subdivision (area 2 sq km)
• Get duration from textbook, design rainfalls from
HIRDS, & c from MWD culvert design manual
Q = c I A / 3.6
Return Period I21min (mm/hr) c
(m3/s)
2 19.9 0.45 5.0
5 24.0 0.45 6.0
10 30.7 0.55 9.4
20 37.7 0.55 11.5
50 51.9 0.65 18.7
100 68.1 0.65 24.6
150 81.1 0.70 31.6
OtagoRC
 Rainfall-runoff Models - 2
• Distributed water balance model - Topnet –
estimates the hydrograph at many places – more
detail coming up …
• Requires GIS data and rainfall information at
many places
• Useful for large rivers, with variety of
subcatchments especially those where flow
measurments are sparse
• Good where rain is spatially variable, catchments
are a complex spatial mixture, or physical
interpretation of processes is important - e.g.
climate change
 TOPNET - 1
Rain, Temperature, Evap

Snowpack
Other
Snowmelt sub-basins:
each one is
Canopy
unique
Throughfall Surface
Topo. flow
Root zone Sub-basin
controls outflow River
Network
Recharge

Sat. zone Subsurface

flow
 TOPNET - 2
• Sub-basin outflows are connected to river
network routing (kinematic waves)
• Model gives results for every sub-basin and
every river reach, every day
• Preprocessing software builds the model
– uses DEM to automatically define river network and
sub-basins at user’s chosen level of detail
– calculates average values within each subcatchment
for soil, vegetation & climate parameters
 Northland
Runoff
Hydrographs
& Maps

Model uses hourly/daily rainfall: e.g. NZLAM,

RAMS, telemetered raingauge, radar, CLIDB
TopNet: River Basin Flow Forecasts –
EcoConnect Component
• EcoConnect is
Environmental Forecasting:
weather, tide, storm surge,
currents, sea surface height,
river flow, inundation
• Rain forecast from weather
model
• Specific rivers with Env BoP,
Gisborne DC, Marlborough
DC, Otago RC
Flood Forecasting: TopNet
Waipaoa – Mon 2am
Waipaoa – Mon 8am
Waipaoa – Mon 2pm
Waipaoa – Tue 2am
Waipaoa – Tue 8am
Waipaoa – Tue 2pm
 Flood Routing Models
• Translation Routing – uses measurements of flow
at upstream site(s), and estimate of travel times.
The simplest – there are more complex options
(kinematic waves, etc)
• Q(t) = a.U(t-da) + b.V(t-db)
• Useful for large rivers which are not very flat,
provided upstream flow measurments are adequate
• Many alternatives, if suitable data are available –
kinematic waves, St Venant equations
Translation Routing
 Translation Routing on the Mataura River
Provides 16 hours reliable warning because
• Most floods begin in the headwaters & are measured
• Travel times from headwaters are long
2,500
16 hours
November 1999 lead time

Forecast for Gore

2,000
Measured at Gore
77564 Mataura at Cattle Flat
77561 Waikaia at Mahers Beach Rd
77528 Waikaka at Willowbank
77525 Waimea at Mandeville Bridge
1,500
Flow [m /s]
3

1,000

500

0
15/11/1999 15/11/1999 16/11/1999 16/11/1999 17/11/1999 17/11/1999 18/11/1999 18/11/1999 19/11/1999
Env. 00:00 12:00 00:00 12:00 00:00 12:00 00:00 12:00 00:00
Time
Southland
 Models, models, models
• There are lots (too many!) hydrological
models. Hydrologists are gradually reducing
this as the science matures
• Model selection depends on river type, and
on data availability, and on your goal!
Important Issues that Affect Floods
• Climate Change may cause increased flood
magnitude over next 30-100 years, and may change
the balance of rain vs snow (more rain, less snow)
• Climate Variability does cause changes in flood risk
between decades (risk goes up and down, differently
in different parts of NZ)
• Urbanisation of a catchment does increase flood
risk, because it prevents rain from infiltrating, and it
transports water very quickly
• Removal of forests from large portion of a
catchment may increase flood risk, because forests
can keep the soils drier, and so provide more space
in the soil to hold rain during storms.
 Buller - Climate Change & Floods
Storm Rainfall Increases Flood Peak Almost Doubled

Now Now

2080 2080
vs
Now
MfE,
BullerDC
 Issues I Haven’t Covered
• Urban Drainage Modelling
• Reservoir modelling (floods and dams)
• Effect of Flood Mitigation – stopbanks etc
• Modelling of soil water, landslides
• Effects of floods on contaminants
(sediments, heavy metals)
May all your rivers be well-behaved!