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TRAINING

ON

DESIGN OF EXPERIMENT

Trainer:

Sha’ri Mohd Yusof

UTM KL

Basic Rules

• Two way communication – ask questions and

participates actively in the discussion.

• Introduce yourself – name, position, year in

service and what is your expectation from this

course.

Training Objectives:

To enable officers, supervisors and technicians to

improve processes through the use of

experimental design. Specific results include:

– Ability to identify key processes and product

variables (Process View)

– How to plan and conduct the most economical

experiments

– How DOE can help for research, characterising

process, continual process improvement

Contents

Module 2: DOE Methodology

Module 3: Full Factorial

Module 1: Introduction to

Design of Experiments (DOE)

Concepts

Experimentation

The Blind Man and the Elephant

look, how we look, and the scope of our view!

Strategy of Experimentation

• Strategy of experimentation

– Best guess approach (trial and error)

• can continue indefinitely

• cannot guarantee best solution has been found

– One-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) approach

• inefficient (requires many test runs)

• fails to consider any possible interaction between factors

– Factorial approach (invented in the 1920’s)

• Factors varied together

• Correct, modern, and most efficient approach

• Can determine how factors interact

• Used extensively in industrial R and D, and for process

improvement.

Statistical Design of Experiments

• All experiments should be designed experiments

• Unfortunately, some experiments are poorly

designed - valuable resources are used

ineffectively and results inconclusive

• Statistically designed experiments permit

efficiency and economy, and the use of statistical

methods in examining the data result in scientific

objectivity when drawing conclusions.

Experimentation

• Experimenter’s first goal: Understand the

process!

• Experiments - used to study effects of factors

as they are set at various levels

Noise factors

Measured

System

response

Control factors

What is a Process?

• Observe the process “as is” using historical data or special

studies (SPC – improving quality at down stream processes)

– Time plots, control charts, stratification

– Correlation studies using regression analysis

• Experiment with the process (DOE – focusing on developing

products/processes at the initial stages)

– Change the process in a planned way and measure the results

– Use Design of Experiments (for more than 1 factor)

“To determine what happens with a process when you interfere with it,

you have to interfere with it, not passively observe it.”

—George E. P. Box

Experimenting with the Process

Testing Theories

Process Process

Data Data

Cost of Experimentation

• Resources (people, equipment, etc.)

• Time

• Material (unprocessed or unusable product)

• Usable product that is not being produced

Design of Experiment

– A statistics-based approach.

– A methodology to achieve a predictive

knowledge of a complex, multi-variable process

with the fewest trials possible.

– Helps to identify the causes of variations and to

eliminate/reduce such variations by controlling

the key process parameters.

Design of Experiments

and efficiently exploring the cause-and-effect

relationship between numerous process variables (Xs)

and the output or process performance variable (Y).

– Identifies the “vital few” sources of variation (Xs)

• Those that have the biggest impact on results

– Quantifies the effects of the important Xs, including their

interactions

– Produces an equation that quantifies the relationship

between the Xs and Y

• You can predict how much gain or loss will result from changes in

process conditions

DOE Process Model

Why use DOE?

• Obtain mathematical relationship

Y = f(X1,X2,…..Xn)

• Identify the most important/critical factors

• Allow investigation of multiple factors of

multiple levels.

• Provide insight into potential interactions

• In general, by using DOE, we can:

– Learn about the process we are investigating

– Screen important variables

– Build a mathematical model

– Obtain prediction equations

– Optimize the response (if required)

the prediction model is obtained using regression

analysis.

Applications of DOE in Engineering Design

• Experiments are conducted in the field of

engineering to:

– evaluate and compare basic design configurations

– evaluate different materials

– select design parameters so that the design will work

well under a wide variety of field conditions (robust

design)

– determine key design parameters that impact

performance

Benefits of DOE

• Reduce cost

• Improve process quality and efficiency

• Achieve valid conclusions with minimum

numbers of trials

• Applicable to all manufacturing process

• Increase market share and profits

DOE Assumptions

• Process being studied is stable

• All important factors in the process have been

recognized

Why DOE is not widely used?

• Unawareness

• Fear of statistics

• Difficulty in design type of selection

DOE Terminology

Controllable Factor:

A factor which is easy, inexpensive and able to

be controlled.

Factor: A “control knob”, an independent

variable, a feature of an experiment that may be

varied from trial to trial.

DOE Terminology

Noise Factor: A factor that is too difficult,

expensive, and/or impossible to control.

Level: A setting of a variable, the actual value to

which a factor is set/being studied in the

experiment.

Response Variable: The output of a process – a

variable you are interested in measuring for the

propose of optimizing.

INPUTS OUTPUTS

(Factors) (Responses)

X v ariables Y v ariables

Brand:

Cheap vs Costly

Taste:

PROCESS: Scale of 1 to 10

T im e:

4 m in vs 6 min

75% or 100%

Best Grams of unpopped

Microwave corns

popcorn

Height:

On bottom or raised

INPUTS OUTPUTS

(Factors) (Responses)

X variables Y variables

Type of

cement

compressive

Percent water

strength

PROCESS:

Type of

modulus of elasticity

Additiv es

Percent

Discov e ring modulus of rupture

Additiv es

Optimal

Concre te

Mixing Time M ixture Poisson's ratio

Curing

Conditions

INPUTS OUTPUTS

(Factors) (Responses)

X variables Y variables

Type of Raw

Material

Mold

Temperature

Pressure part

% shrinkage f rom

Holding Time

mold size

M anufacturing

Inje ction number of defective

Gate Size

M olde d Parts parts

Screw Speed

Content Parts

Group Exercise

• Objective: Practice identifying applications of DOE in your manufacturing

process.

• Time : 30 mins

• Instructions: Do this exercise in small groups of people whose work are

related, if possible

1. Establish a work team that consists of all relevant functional and skill

areas

- Specific membership included the quality manager, production manager,

process engineer, process technician, quality inspector, recorder

2. Define specifically the objectives of the study

- To determine what the objectives are and what the experiments would

evaluate. The objectives should be specific and measurable.

3. Develop a cause-effect diagram for the identification of the variables

(factors) to be measured in the experiment. Each variable (factor)

selected for the measurement in the experiment is assigned a high (+)

and low (-) value. These values were determined by reviewing Master

Setup Sheet.

Group Exercise

4. Identify the response variable. The DOE team

reviewed the part characteristics that could

best be used to evaluate the quality

conformance of the molded parts.

5. Record your idea on the flip chart/transparency.

6. Be prepared to report your key learnings.

What is Scientific Study?

Statistics: A collection of procedures and processes to

enable researchers in the unbiased pursuit of Knowledge

Statistics is an important part of the Scientific Method/Study

State of Hypothesis

Results – Draw and Collect Data

Conclusions

Key Questions

STATISTICIAN HELP? HOW???

HELP WITH DECIDING THE EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN /

LAYOUT

DETERMINE SAMPLE SIZE NEEDED

DEVELOP PROCESS OF COLLECTING DATA

DISCUSS VARIABLES TO BE MEASURED AND HOW

THEY RELATE TO THE OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

PROVIDE METHODS OF ANALYZING THE DATA

HELP TRANSLATE STATISTICAL CONCLUSIONS INTO

SUBJECT MATTER CONCLUSIONS

Key Questions

THE CORE HELP FROM THE STATISTICIAN IS IN

THE DESIGN OF THE EXPERIMENT

Help with selecting conditions that relate to the objectives

of the study

Selecting the Experimental Units

Deciding when REPLICATIONS exist

Determining the ORDER in which the experiment is to be

carried out

Major Approaches to DOE

• Factorial Design

• Taguchi Method

• Response Surface Design

DOE - Factorial Designs

• Full factorial

– simplest design to create, but extremely inefficient

– each factor tested at each condition of the factor

– number of tests, N: N = yx

where y = number of conditions, x = number of

factors

• example: 8 factors, 2 conditions each,

N = 28 = 256 tests

– results analyzed with ANOVA

– cost: resources, time, materials, …

DOE - Factorial Designs - 23

Trial Factor A Factor B Factor C

1 – – –

2 + – –

3 – + –

4 + + –

5 – – +

6 + – +

7 – + +

8 + + +

Module 2: DOE

Methodology

Experimental Design Steps

1. Identify the response or output

2. Identify factors for the study

3. Determination of factor levels and range of factor

setting

4. Choice of appropriate experimental design

5. Run the experiment

6. Collect and analyze the data

7. Draw conclusions

8. Act on the results

Experimental Design Steps

1. Identify the response or output

– doing so often leads to:

• goals are too many to cover in a single study

Experimental Design Steps

2. Identify factors for the study

– Identify controllable and uncontrollable factors

in the process

– A brainstorming and cause and effect analysis

should be performed

– Process knowledge (FMEA), expert advice,

literature reviews

Experimental Design Steps

3. Determination of factor levels and range of

factor setting

• A trial experiments were performed to find the

parameter ranges in which effective process takes

place

• Find the range of input parameters so that the

experiment would not end in a failure

Experimental Design Steps

4. Choice of appropriate experimental design

• Depend on the study of the main and interaction

effects, cost and time constraint

• Full or Fractional Factorial Experiments

• Randomize runs – Randomization is a method of

safeguarding the experiment from systematic bias

which causes variation in response or output

Experimental Design Steps

5. Run the experiment

– Each combination of factors was run in the full

fledged experiments

– Observe and record the results

– A task in resource management

– Complete the work as efficiently and as

effectively as possible

Experimental Design Steps

6. Collect and analyze the data

– Best to examine the data as a whole

– Plot of main and interaction effects

Data Collection

INFORMATION OR KNOWLEDGE!!

obtained.

INFORMATION DATA

At best:

INFORMATION = DATA+ANALYSIS

Data Collection

If data are collected such that they contain NO information

in the first place, then the analysis phase cannot find it!!!

contained in the collected data is to DESIGN (plan) and

Carefully Control the DATA COLLECTION PROCESS

OBJECTIVES of the study

Data Collection

If you have a good design and process for data collection, it

is quite often straight forward to construct an analysis that

extracts all of the available information from the data

REAEARCH TEAM (or researcher) from the start of the

study

Data Analysis

Use the COMPLETED DESIGNED EXPERIMENT and the

data type to construct an appropriate analysis

Minitab, Stat graphics, Design Expert, Design Ease, JMP

A software package you know will provide valid results

Data Interpretation

The Statistician will provide the STATISTICAL interpretation

of the results from the analyses – STATISTICAL ANALYSES

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistician will help the Researcher TRANSLATE the

statistical analyses conclusions into subject matter conclusions

Discuss how the statistical analyses provide results that relate to

the STATED OBJECTIVES of the study. The expected results

should be written along with the objectives. Results that are not

expected should be looked at carefully

Data Interpretation

statistician to become involved with a

research study is in the very beginning

MAXIMUM AMOUNT INFORMATION FROM

AVAILABLE RESOURCE

Experimental Design Steps

7. Draw conclusion

– Draw conclusion and verify them with the

objective of the study.

Experimental Design Steps

8. Act on the results

– Goals set earlier identified what was to be done

if success obtained – do it!

• If no action is taken, why was the experiment done?

– Complete the documentation of the experiment

Module 3: Full Factorial

Experiment

Factorial Terms and Definition

• Define factors

• Define levels

• Output response

Choosing Factors

Factors Levels

A Too High

Too Low

B Too High

Too Low

Reason For Choosing Levels

• Study the effect of the level.

• Don’t too close the range.

• Based on the process knowledge.

Factorial Terms and Notation

–Factors (Xs)

• Input or process variables that you want to study

• Examples : Paper, Paper Clip, Wing Length

–Factor conditions

• Settings or levels that you will test for each factor

– For now, we will consider only two levels for each factor

• Examples from the exercise: Paper: 80 gm or 100 gm; Paper

Clip: 1 or 2 clips; Wing Length: 80 mm or 100 mm

–Run

• Also called test or trial

• A set of factor conditions tested or tried or run in the

experiment

Factorial Terms and Notation, cont.

– Notation

• Use “–” and “+” to designate the two settings of each

factor

– Also called the low and high levels

– If a standard condition exists, it is usually designated as a

minus (–) and the new condition is designated as the plus (+)

Run Paper Paper Clip Wing Run Paper Paper Clip Wing

Length (mm) Length

1 70gm

80gm

1 Clip 80 = 1 – – –

2 2 Clips 100 2 + + +

Run 1 tests the “low” level of all factors (–); Run 2 tests the “high” level of all

factors (+). Other combinations would mix both high and low levels.

Three Factors:

Full Factorial Layout

Std. Factor Factor Factor

Order 1 2 3

1 – – –

2 + – –

3 – + –

4 + + –

5 – – +

6 + – +

7 – + +

8 + + +

A 23 Factorial Layout Example

• Experimental Design in Standard Order

Order Type Clip Length (mm)

1 70gm 1 Clip 80

2 80gm 1 Clip 80

3 70gm 2 Clips 80

4 80gm 2 Clips 80

Group Exercise : Maximize Flight Time

(Factorial Approach)

• Objective: Use Full Factorial methods to

design and analyze the paper helicopter

experiment.

• Time: 60 mins.

• Project Mission: Find the combination of

factors that most consistently maximizes the

flight time of a ____ foot drop without

negatively affecting other flight properties.

How Would You Approach This

Problem?

limited flight time of his helicopters.

Management wants to increase flight time to

improve customer satisfaction. You are put in

charge of this improvement project.

Group Exercise: Maximize Flight Time

• Form a few groups that consists of few members

assigned by trainer

• Assignment: Find the combination of factors that

most consistently maximizes the flight time of a ____

foot drop without negatively affecting other flight

properties (Stability).

• Each team to appoint a leader and present your

findings

• The time given is 60 minute

Model of a Paper Helicopter Design

40 mm 40 mm 40 mm 40 mm

80 mm 100 mm

Cut (Wing (Wing

Length) Length)

Cut

Fold Fold

10mm 10mm

80 mm 100 mm

(Body (Body

Length) Length)

30 mm 20 mm 30 mm 30 mm 30 mm 30 mm

Exercise: Factors That May Affect

Flight Time of PHA Helicopters

• The Paper Helicopter Association has authorized for flight

testing certain modifications to the standard design. Allowable

ranges for the factors that may vary are shown below.

FACTOR SUGGESTED LEVELS

Standard Modified

Paper Clip 1 2

Paper Helicopter Exercise

– Your group are interested in the effects of Paper

Type (A), Paper Clip (B) and Wing Length (C) on

the flight time

– 2 levels of each factor are chosen, and three

replicates of a 23 Factorial Design are run.

– Develop the design experimental worksheet and

run the experiment

– Take notes of your results on experimental

worksheet

Exercise: Presentation Report

• Take notes of your results on the Experimental

Results worksheet

• On your recommendations for increasing flight time

should include:

– Recommendations for an optimal helicopter design.

– Predicted flight time at optimal setting.

– What experimental strategy did you use to arrive at the

above?

– How did you analyze your data?

– Recommendations for future prototypes to construct and

test.

Summary: Factorial Design (2k)

– Experiments with 3 factors can be represented as

a cube

– The disadvantage of full factorial designs is that

you quickly reach a high number of runs

• For a 2-level experiment the number of runs = 2k,

where k = number of factors

– We’ll see how to reduce the number of runs and

still enjoy the benefits of a factorial approach

• But for now, we will continue to discuss the concepts

and analysis of experiments using a full factorial

design

3 Principles of DOE

• Replication NOT Repetition

• Randomization

• Blocking

Replication

• Definition

• Replication means repeating all the experimental

conditions (or running a combination) two or more

times.

– This does not mean measuring an experimental unit twice

– It does mean repeating a certain set of conditions and

measuring the new output

– Two replicates means that for an 8-run design you will do

16 runs in one experiment

• Minitab will randomize all the runs (including replicates) at the

same time

• If for some reason you cannot, or choose not to, do all the runs at

the same time, you need to be concerned about blocking (a topic

we’ll discuss later in this module)

– One replicate really means no replication

Key to the Design of the Experiment is the Concept of

REPLICATION

Factor if the level is randomly assigned the Experimental

Unit and observed independently of the other Experimental

Units

Replications

Why Do Replicates?

– To measure pure error: the amount of variability among

runs performed at the same experimental conditions (this

represents common cause variation)

– To see more clearly whether or not a factor is important—

is the difference between responses due to a change in

factor conditions (an induced special cause) or is it due to

common cause variability?

– To see the effect of changing factor conditions not only on

the average response, but also on response variability, if

desired (two responses can be analyzed: the mean and the

st. dev.)

Randomization:

The Experimenter’s Insurance

• Definition

• To assign the order in which the experimental trials will

be run using a random mechanism

– It is not the standard order

– It is not running trials in an order that is convenient

– To create a random order, you can “pull numbers from a hat” or

have Minitab randomize the sequence of trials for you

• Why?

– Averages the effect of any lurking variables over all of the

factors in the experiment

• Prevents the effect of a lurking variable from being mistakenly

attributed to another factor

– Helps validate statistical conclusions made from the experiment

Randomization

• Randomly assigned experimental unit.

• Averaged out external factors such as

humidity, temp, etc that affect the process.

Blocking

• Known sources of variability.

• Estimate the variation.

Lurking Variables

• Definition*

• A lurking variable is one that has an important effect

and yet is not included among the factors under

consideration because:

– Its existence is unknown

– Its influence is thought to be negligible

– Data on it are unavailable

• Safeguard

– Randomize the order of the experimental trials to protect against the

effect of lurking variables

– If a lurking variable creates a trend, it can be compensated for in the

numerical analysis

– Valid conclusions can still be drawn about the factors in the experiment

in spite of the presence of lurking variables

Where are we?

We’ve completed the

first six steps

2. Identify factors

Experiment

Design

3. Determination of factor levels and

range of factor setting

4. Choice of appropriate experimental

design

5. Run the experiment

6. Collect data and analyze data

Experiment

Analysis 7. Draw conclusions

8. Act on results

Full Factorial

Data Analysis

Manual Calculation

Graphical Analysis

Data Analysis

• Three phases of data analysis

Look for Identify large View effects

problems with effects on response

the data or the

model

• Pareto chart of • Main effects plot

effects

• Interaction plots

• P-values of effects

from ANOVA Table

• Normal Prob. Plot

Identify Large Effects

• Two types of effects

• The overall effect of each factor on the response

2. Interaction effects

• Synergy between the positive or negative factors

Definition of Main Effect

• Definition

• The main effect is the average increase (or

decrease) in the response when moving from

the low to the high level of a factor.

• Formula for calculating main effects for each

factor:

Average of all Average of all

–

MAIN

EFFECT = observations at

High (+) level

observations at

Low (–) level

Minitab Uses the Design to Calculate

Main Effects

• Example: Main effect of Factor C

Std. Design Results

Order A B C Y (C)x(Y)

1 – – – 53 –53

2 + – – 62 –62 How would Minitab

3 – + – 65 –65 use the design to

4 + + – 94 –94 calculate the main

5 – – + 56 56 effect of Factor A?

6 + – + 66 66

Factor B?

7 – + + 47 47

8 + + + 80 80

–25

[Using design above, (Using definition of

as shown by column (C)x(Y)] main effect)

= [Ave. at high] - [Ave. at low]

56 + 66 + 47 + 80 53 + 62 + 65 + 94

–25 = –

C = = –6.25 4 4

4

= 249 - 274 = –6.25

4 4

Definition of Interaction Effects

• Definition

• An interaction occurs when the effect one factor has on the response (Y) is

not the same for each level of another factor.

No Interaction Interaction

(Parallel Lines) (Non-parallel Lines)

Response (Y)

Response (Y)

–

Factor B –

+ Factor B

+

– + – +

Factor A Factor A

• Formula for calculating the size of interaction effects:

( Effect of A for high B ) - (Effect of A for low B)

AB interaction =

2

Discussion: Interaction Example

Here is a plot that shows the effect of two factors on the response.

This is called an interaction plot.

1.90

x

x + Wing Length

Flight

1.80

Time

70gm 80gm

Paper Type

Discussion: Answers

• Whether or not you reduce wing length

depends on which paper type is used:

– When 70gm paper is used, changing the wing

length does/does not improve results?

– When 80gm paper is used, reducing wing length

does/does not improve results (increased flight

time) ?

• When the conclusion for one factor depends

on another factor…this is an interaction.

Interpreting Interaction Plots

Positive Main Effect No Main Effect

of A of A

Response

Response

Factor B

No

+ – Factor B

Interaction +

(Parallel Lines)

– + –Factor A+

Factor A

Response

+

Response

Factor B

Small Factor B

+ –

Interaction

–Factor A+

– +

Factor A

– Response +

Response

Interaction

+ –

– + –Factor A +

Factor A

Full Factorial

Graphical Analysis

Statistical Analysis

Deciding Which Effects Are Large

(“Significant”)

• Three ways to decide which effects are large:

– P-value for each effect

– Pareto chart of effects

– Normal probability plot of effects

at each of these outcomes.

Follow Along: Main Effects and

Interactions, cont.

Follow Along: Main Effects and

Interactions, cont.

• P-Value for each effect—MSD example

Size of the Called “standardized If P-value <.05,

effect effects” on the plots then the effect

Fractional Factorial Fit

is significant

Estimated Effects and Coefficients for Bends (coded units)

average Constant 15.688 0.9902 15.84 0.000

Vendor -0.875 -0.437 0.9902 -0.44 0.670 The Heat

Main Size 1.125 0.562 0.9902 0.57 0.586 main effect

effects Heat 8.125 4.062 0.9902 4.10 0.003

Vendor*Size -5.125 -2.563 0.9902 -2.59 0.032 and

Vendor*Heat -1.625 -0.813 0.9902 -0.82 0.436 Vendor*Size

Inter- Size*Heat 1.375 0.688 0.9902 0.69 0.507

actions

interaction are

Vendor*Size*Heat 1.625 0.812 0.9902 0.82 0.436

statistically

Analysis of Variance for Bends (coded units) significant

Source DF Seq SS Adj SS Adj MS F P

Main Effects 3 272.187 272.187 90.73 5.78 0.021

2-Way Interactions 3 123.188 123.188 41.06 2.62 0.123

3-Way Interactions 1 10.562 10.562 10.56 0.67 0.436

Residual Error 8 125.500 125.500 15.69

Pure Error 8 125.500 125.500 15.69 =3.96 Bends

Total 15 531.438

replicates To interpret this By changing from of replicates

value, you need to “No Heat” to “Heat,”

see the interaction we increase the

plot. For now, we number of bends by

know that this 8.125 on average

interaction, and none

of the others, is

significant.

Follow Along: Main Effects and

Interactions, cont.

Follow Along: Main Effects and

Interactions, cont.

View Effects on the Response

• Three ways to view effects from the

experiment on the response:

– Main effects plots

– Interaction plots

•

Main Effects

Here is a typical Main Effects plot

Plot

Main Effects Plot (data means) for Response (Y)

Low A High A Low B High B Low C High C

effect of A effect of C

Response (Y)

effect of B

85

80

75

70

A B C

– overall

The Main Effects Plot is an average

efficient way to see the change in the

average response (Y) for each factor

– Use P-values from the output to discern which effects are significant

(distinguishable from common cause variation)

Interaction Plot

Interaction Plot (data means) for Response (Y)

Low B High B Low C High C

100

A

Average

High A 80 response

(Y)

Low A

Non-significant Non-significant 60

interaction of AB interaction of AC

100

B

Average

High B 80

response

(Y)

Low B

Significant 60

interaction of BC

C

Exercise 4: Interpreting the Factorial

Plots, cont.

1.Use Minitab to construct each of the plots.

Stat > DOE > Factorial Plots

the “Available” factors into the “Selected”

box

Exercise 4: Interpreting the Factorial

Plots, cont.

2. The instructor will assign each small group a

particular plot. As a team, prepare a brief

presentation (2 minutes or less) on that plot.

• Compare your plot to the corresponding plot on the

following pages.

• Give conclusions and make recommendations for factor

settings to maximize durability of clips

3. If time allows, study the other two types of plots

as well.

Exercise 4: Interpreting the Factorial

Plots, cont.

Exercise 4: Interpreting the Factorial

Plots, cont.

Exercise 4: Interpreting the Factorial

Plots, cont.

Exercise 4: Answers

• Conclusions from Main Effects plot

• Large positive slope (from lower left to upper right)

• Significant P-value

• Their p-values are non-significant (indistinguishable

from common cause variation—close to overall average

of about 16 bends)

• Recommendations

Step 8: Drawing Conclusions

• At the end of your analysis:

– List all your conclusions

– Interpret the meaning of these results

• For example, relate them to known physical properties,

engineering theories, or your own personal knowledge

– Make recommendations

– Formulate and write conclusions in simple

language

The Prediction Equation

– You can use the factor coefficients generated in

Minitab to write an equation that

• Quantifies the relationship between Y and the factors

• Can be used to make predictions of various

combinations

– It’s similar to the regression equation

Using Coefficients:

A Prediction Equation

• Prediction equations for discrete factors

– The prediction equation works the same for both

discrete and continuous factors

– The constant (overall average) is in the equation

– The coefficients for discrete factors are the amount

you add or subtract from the overall average

• Whether you add or subtract depends both on whether

the effect is negative or positive and how you coded the

levels (e.g., yes = –1, no = +1)

Dropping Terms from the

Prediction Equation

• Minitab command: Stat > DOE > Analyze Factorial > Terms

(this is sometimes called reduced terms

analysis). If an interaction is significant, it is

standard practice to include the main effects

of the factors involved, even if the main

factors by themselves aren’t significant.

Output

using data in uncoded units

Constant 15.688

levels are discrete

Vendor -0.437

Size 0.562 for the MSD

Heat 4.062 experiment,

Vendor*Size -2.563 coefficients are

the same for

“coded” and

“uncoded” units.

Validate Results

• There are two key ways to verify the

conclusions drawn from an experiment:

– Confirmatory runs—run a few additional

experiments at the recommended settings to see if

the desired response is achieved

– Make actual recommended process changes—

change the process and monitor it on a control

chart to assure that the desired response is

achieved and maintained

– NOTE: Fabricate Five (5) Additional Paper

Helicopters To Verify Your Results!

Practical Implications of

Conducting a Designed Experiment

• Before the experiment

A. Preliminaries

B. Identifying responses, factors, and factor levels

C. Selecting the design

D.Collecting the data

E. Analyzing the data

F. Drawing, verifying, and reporting conclusions

G.Implementing recommendations

DoE References

Box, George E.P., William G. Hunter and J. Stuart Hunter. Statistics for

Experimenters. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1978.

Lochner, Robert H. and Joseph E. Matar. Designing for Quality: An

Introduction to the Best of Taguchi and Western Methods of Statistical

Experimental Design. Jointly published by Quality Resources (800-247-

8519) and ASQC Quality Press (800-952-6587). White Plains, NY:

Quality Resources, 1990.

Moen, Ronald D., Thomas W. Nolan and Lloyd P. Provost. Planned

Experimentation to Improve Quality. Austin, TX: Associates in Process

Improvement, 1989.

Snee, Ronald D., Lynne B. Hare and J. Richard Trout. Experiments in

Industry: Design, Analysis, and Interpretation. Milwaukee, WI:

American Society for Quality Control, 1985.

Wheeler, Donald J. Understanding Industrial Experimentation. Knoxville,

TN: Statistical Process Controls, Inc., 1987.

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