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2-DAY IN-HOUSE PROFESSIONAL

TRAINING
ON
DESIGN OF EXPERIMENT

Trainer:
Sha’ri Mohd Yusof
UTM KL
Basic Rules
• Two way communication – ask questions and
participates actively in the discussion.
• Introduce yourself – name, position, year in
service and what is your expectation from this
course.
Training Objectives:
To enable officers, supervisors and technicians to
improve processes through the use of
experimental design. Specific results include:

– Basic understanding of experimental design


– Ability to identify key processes and product
variables (Process View)
– How to plan and conduct the most economical
experiments
– How DOE can help for research, characterising
process, continual process improvement
Contents

Module 1: DOE Concepts


Module 2: DOE Methodology
Module 3: Full Factorial
Module 1: Introduction to
Design of Experiments (DOE)
Concepts
Experimentation
The Blind Man and the Elephant

What we learn from an experiment may depend on where we


look, how we look, and the scope of our view!
Strategy of Experimentation

• Strategy of experimentation
– Best guess approach (trial and error)
• can continue indefinitely
• cannot guarantee best solution has been found
– One-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) approach
• inefficient (requires many test runs)
• fails to consider any possible interaction between factors
– Factorial approach (invented in the 1920’s)
• Factors varied together
• Correct, modern, and most efficient approach
• Can determine how factors interact
• Used extensively in industrial R and D, and for process
improvement.
Statistical Design of Experiments
• All experiments should be designed experiments
• Unfortunately, some experiments are poorly
designed - valuable resources are used
ineffectively and results inconclusive
• Statistically designed experiments permit
efficiency and economy, and the use of statistical
methods in examining the data result in scientific
objectivity when drawing conclusions.
Experimentation
• Experimenter’s first goal: Understand the
process!
• Experiments - used to study effects of factors
as they are set at various levels
Noise factors

Measured
System
response

Control factors
What is a Process?

• Observe the process


• Observe the process “as is” using historical data or special
studies (SPC – improving quality at down stream processes)
– Time plots, control charts, stratification
– Correlation studies using regression analysis
• Experiment with the process (DOE – focusing on developing
products/processes at the initial stages)
– Change the process in a planned way and measure the results
– Use Design of Experiments (for more than 1 factor)
“To determine what happens with a process when you interfere with it,
you have to interfere with it, not passively observe it.”
—George E. P. Box
Experimenting with the Process
Testing Theories
Process Process

Data Data

Theory Theory Theory

Process Knowledge Increases


Cost of Experimentation
• Resources (people, equipment, etc.)
• Time
• Material (unprocessed or unusable product)
• Usable product that is not being produced
Design of Experiment

• A well planned experiment


– A statistics-based approach.
– A methodology to achieve a predictive
knowledge of a complex, multi-variable process
with the fewest trials possible.
– Helps to identify the causes of variations and to
eliminate/reduce such variations by controlling
the key process parameters.
Design of Experiments

Design of Experiments is an approach for effectively


and efficiently exploring the cause-and-effect
relationship between numerous process variables (Xs)
and the output or process performance variable (Y).
– Identifies the “vital few” sources of variation (Xs)
• Those that have the biggest impact on results
– Quantifies the effects of the important Xs, including their
interactions
– Produces an equation that quantifies the relationship
between the Xs and Y
• You can predict how much gain or loss will result from changes in
process conditions
DOE Process Model
Why use DOE?
• Obtain mathematical relationship
Y = f(X1,X2,…..Xn)
• Identify the most important/critical factors
• Allow investigation of multiple factors of
multiple levels.
• Provide insight into potential interactions
• In general, by using DOE, we can:
– Learn about the process we are investigating
– Screen important variables
– Build a mathematical model
– Obtain prediction equations
– Optimize the response (if required)

• Statistical significance is tested using ANOVA, and


the prediction model is obtained using regression
analysis.
Applications of DOE in Engineering Design
• Experiments are conducted in the field of
engineering to:
– evaluate and compare basic design configurations
– evaluate different materials
– select design parameters so that the design will work
well under a wide variety of field conditions (robust
design)
– determine key design parameters that impact
performance
Benefits of DOE
• Reduce cost
• Improve process quality and efficiency
• Achieve valid conclusions with minimum
numbers of trials
• Applicable to all manufacturing process
• Increase market share and profits
DOE Assumptions
• Process being studied is stable
• All important factors in the process have been
recognized
Why DOE is not widely used?
• Unawareness
• Fear of statistics
• Difficulty in design type of selection
DOE Terminology
Controllable Factor:
A factor which is easy, inexpensive and able to
be controlled.
Factor: A “control knob”, an independent
variable, a feature of an experiment that may be
varied from trial to trial.
DOE Terminology
Noise Factor: A factor that is too difficult,
expensive, and/or impossible to control.
Level: A setting of a variable, the actual value to
which a factor is set/being studied in the
experiment.
Response Variable: The output of a process – a
variable you are interested in measuring for the
propose of optimizing.
INPUTS OUTPUTS
(Factors) (Responses)
X v ariables Y v ariables

Brand:
Cheap vs Costly
Taste:
PROCESS: Scale of 1 to 10

T im e:
4 m in vs 6 min

Power: Making the Bullets:


75% or 100%
Best Grams of unpopped
Microwave corns
popcorn
Height:
On bottom or raised

Making microwave popcorn


INPUTS OUTPUTS
(Factors) (Responses)
X variables Y variables

Type of
cement

compressive
Percent water
strength

PROCESS:
Type of
modulus of elasticity
Additiv es

Percent
Discov e ring modulus of rupture
Additiv es
Optimal
Concre te
Mixing Time M ixture Poisson's ratio

Curing
Conditions

% Plasticizer Optimum Concre te M ixture


INPUTS OUTPUTS
(Factors) (Responses)
X variables Y variables

Type of Raw
Material

Mold
Temperature

Holding PROCESS: thickness of molded


Pressure part

% shrinkage f rom
Holding Time
mold size
M anufacturing
Inje ction number of defective
Gate Size
M olde d Parts parts

Screw Speed

Moisture M anufacturing Inje ction M olde d


Content Parts
Group Exercise
• Objective: Practice identifying applications of DOE in your manufacturing
process.
• Time : 30 mins
• Instructions: Do this exercise in small groups of people whose work are
related, if possible
1. Establish a work team that consists of all relevant functional and skill
areas
- Specific membership included the quality manager, production manager,
process engineer, process technician, quality inspector, recorder
2. Define specifically the objectives of the study
- To determine what the objectives are and what the experiments would
evaluate. The objectives should be specific and measurable.
3. Develop a cause-effect diagram for the identification of the variables
(factors) to be measured in the experiment. Each variable (factor)
selected for the measurement in the experiment is assigned a high (+)
and low (-) value. These values were determined by reviewing Master
Setup Sheet.
Group Exercise
4. Identify the response variable. The DOE team
reviewed the part characteristics that could
best be used to evaluate the quality
conformance of the molded parts.
5. Record your idea on the flip chart/transparency.
6. Be prepared to report your key learnings.
What is Scientific Study?
Statistics: A collection of procedures and processes to
enable researchers in the unbiased pursuit of Knowledge
Statistics is an important part of the Scientific Method/Study

State of Hypothesis

Interpret the Design a Study


Results – Draw and Collect Data
Conclusions

Analyze the Data


Key Questions
STATISTICIAN HELP? HOW???
HELP WITH DECIDING THE EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN /
LAYOUT
DETERMINE SAMPLE SIZE NEEDED
DEVELOP PROCESS OF COLLECTING DATA
DISCUSS VARIABLES TO BE MEASURED AND HOW
THEY RELATE TO THE OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
PROVIDE METHODS OF ANALYZING THE DATA
HELP TRANSLATE STATISTICAL CONCLUSIONS INTO
SUBJECT MATTER CONCLUSIONS
Key Questions
THE CORE HELP FROM THE STATISTICIAN IS IN
THE DESIGN OF THE EXPERIMENT
Help with selecting conditions that relate to the objectives
of the study
Selecting the Experimental Units
Deciding when REPLICATIONS exist
Determining the ORDER in which the experiment is to be
carried out

THE DESIGN OF THE EXPERIMENT IS CRITICAL


Major Approaches to DOE
• Factorial Design
• Taguchi Method
• Response Surface Design
DOE - Factorial Designs
• Full factorial
– simplest design to create, but extremely inefficient
– each factor tested at each condition of the factor
– number of tests, N: N = yx
where y = number of conditions, x = number of
factors
• example: 8 factors, 2 conditions each,
N = 28 = 256 tests
– results analyzed with ANOVA
– cost: resources, time, materials, …
DOE - Factorial Designs - 23
Trial Factor A Factor B Factor C
1 – – –
2 + – –
3 – + –
4 + + –
5 – – +
6 + – +
7 – + +
8 + + +
Module 2: DOE
Methodology
Experimental Design Steps
1. Identify the response or output
2. Identify factors for the study
3. Determination of factor levels and range of factor
setting
4. Choice of appropriate experimental design
5. Run the experiment
6. Collect and analyze the data
7. Draw conclusions
8. Act on the results
Experimental Design Steps
1. Identify the response or output

– Define the objective of the experiment


– doing so often leads to:
• goals are too many to cover in a single study
Experimental Design Steps
2. Identify factors for the study
– Identify controllable and uncontrollable factors
in the process
– A brainstorming and cause and effect analysis
should be performed
– Process knowledge (FMEA), expert advice,
literature reviews
Experimental Design Steps
3. Determination of factor levels and range of
factor setting
• A trial experiments were performed to find the
parameter ranges in which effective process takes
place
• Find the range of input parameters so that the
experiment would not end in a failure
Experimental Design Steps
4. Choice of appropriate experimental design
• Depend on the study of the main and interaction
effects, cost and time constraint
• Full or Fractional Factorial Experiments
• Randomize runs – Randomization is a method of
safeguarding the experiment from systematic bias
which causes variation in response or output
Experimental Design Steps
5. Run the experiment
– Each combination of factors was run in the full
fledged experiments
– Observe and record the results
– A task in resource management
– Complete the work as efficiently and as
effectively as possible
Experimental Design Steps
6. Collect and analyze the data
– Best to examine the data as a whole
– Plot of main and interaction effects
Data Collection

The PURPOSE OF DATA COLLECTION is to GAIN


INFORMATION OR KNOWLEDGE!!

Collecting Data does not guarantee that information is


obtained.

INFORMATION  DATA
At best:
INFORMATION = DATA+ANALYSIS
Data Collection
If data are collected such that they contain NO information
in the first place, then the analysis phase cannot find it!!!

The best way to insure that appropriate information is


contained in the collected data is to DESIGN (plan) and
Carefully Control the DATA COLLECTION PROCESS

The measured variables must relate to the stated


OBJECTIVES of the study
Data Collection
If you have a good design and process for data collection, it
is quite often straight forward to construct an analysis that
extracts all of the available information from the data

The ROLE of a STATISTICIAN is to work with the


REAEARCH TEAM (or researcher) from the start of the
study
Data Analysis
Use the COMPLETED DESIGNED EXPERIMENT and the
data type to construct an appropriate analysis

Use Statistical Software –


Minitab, Stat graphics, Design Expert, Design Ease, JMP
A software package you know will provide valid results
Data Interpretation
The Statistician will provide the STATISTICAL interpretation
of the results from the analyses – STATISTICAL ANALYSES
CONCLUSIONS
The Statistician will help the Researcher TRANSLATE the
statistical analyses conclusions into subject matter conclusions
Discuss how the statistical analyses provide results that relate to
the STATED OBJECTIVES of the study. The expected results
should be written along with the objectives. Results that are not
expected should be looked at carefully
Data Interpretation

The MOST IMPORTANT TIME for the


statistician to become involved with a
research study is in the very beginning

A STATISTICIAN CAN HELP OBTAIN THE


MAXIMUM AMOUNT INFORMATION FROM
AVAILABLE RESOURCE
Experimental Design Steps
7. Draw conclusion
– Draw conclusion and verify them with the
objective of the study.
Experimental Design Steps
8. Act on the results
– Goals set earlier identified what was to be done
if success obtained – do it!
• If no action is taken, why was the experiment done?
– Complete the documentation of the experiment
Module 3: Full Factorial

Full Factorial: Planning for


Experiment
Factorial Terms and Definition
• Define factors
• Define levels
• Output response
Choosing Factors
Factors Levels

A Too High
Too Low

B Too High
Too Low
Reason For Choosing Levels
• Study the effect of the level.
• Don’t too close the range.
• Based on the process knowledge.
Factorial Terms and Notation
–Factors (Xs)
• Input or process variables that you want to study
• Examples : Paper, Paper Clip, Wing Length
–Factor conditions
• Settings or levels that you will test for each factor
– For now, we will consider only two levels for each factor
• Examples from the exercise: Paper: 80 gm or 100 gm; Paper
Clip: 1 or 2 clips; Wing Length: 80 mm or 100 mm
–Run
• Also called test or trial
• A set of factor conditions tested or tried or run in the
experiment
Factorial Terms and Notation, cont.
– Notation
• Use “–” and “+” to designate the two settings of each
factor
– Also called the low and high levels
– If a standard condition exists, it is usually designated as a
minus (–) and the new condition is designated as the plus (+)

Run Paper Paper Clip Wing Run Paper Paper Clip Wing
Length (mm) Length
1 70gm
80gm
1 Clip 80 = 1 – – –
2 2 Clips 100 2 + + +

Run 1 tests the “low” level of all factors (–); Run 2 tests the “high” level of all
factors (+). Other combinations would mix both high and low levels.
Three Factors:
Full Factorial Layout
Std. Factor Factor Factor
Order 1 2 3

1 – – –
2 + – –
3 – + –
4 + + –
5 – – +
6 + – +
7 – + +
8 + + +
A 23 Factorial Layout Example
• Experimental Design in Standard Order

Std. Paper Paper Wing


Order Type Clip Length (mm)
1 70gm 1 Clip 80

2 80gm 1 Clip 80

3 70gm 2 Clips 80

4 80gm 2 Clips 80

5 70gm 1 Clip 100

6 80gm 1 Clip 100

7 70gm 2 Clips 100

8 80gm 2 Clips 100


Group Exercise : Maximize Flight Time
(Factorial Approach)
• Objective: Use Full Factorial methods to
design and analyze the paper helicopter
experiment.
• Time: 60 mins.
• Project Mission: Find the combination of
factors that most consistently maximizes the
flight time of a ____ foot drop without
negatively affecting other flight properties.
How Would You Approach This
Problem?

• King Jef has been complaining about the


limited flight time of his helicopters.
Management wants to increase flight time to
improve customer satisfaction. You are put in
charge of this improvement project.
Group Exercise: Maximize Flight Time
• Form a few groups that consists of few members
assigned by trainer
• Assignment: Find the combination of factors that
most consistently maximizes the flight time of a ____
foot drop without negatively affecting other flight
properties (Stability).
• Each team to appoint a leader and present your
findings
• The time given is 60 minute
Model of a Paper Helicopter Design
40 mm 40 mm 40 mm 40 mm

80 mm 100 mm
Cut (Wing (Wing
Length) Length)
Cut

Fold Fold

10mm 10mm

cut cut cut cut

80 mm 100 mm
(Body (Body
Length) Length)

30 mm 20 mm 30 mm 30 mm 30 mm 30 mm
Exercise: Factors That May Affect
Flight Time of PHA Helicopters
• The Paper Helicopter Association has authorized for flight
testing certain modifications to the standard design. Allowable
ranges for the factors that may vary are shown below.
FACTOR SUGGESTED LEVELS

Standard Modified

Paper type 70g 80g

Paper Clip 1 2

Wing Length 80 mm 100 mm


Paper Helicopter Exercise
– Your group are interested in the effects of Paper
Type (A), Paper Clip (B) and Wing Length (C) on
the flight time
– 2 levels of each factor are chosen, and three
replicates of a 23 Factorial Design are run.
– Develop the design experimental worksheet and
run the experiment
– Take notes of your results on experimental
worksheet
Exercise: Presentation Report
• Take notes of your results on the Experimental
Results worksheet
• On your recommendations for increasing flight time
should include:
– Recommendations for an optimal helicopter design.
– Predicted flight time at optimal setting.
– What experimental strategy did you use to arrive at the
above?
– How did you analyze your data?
– Recommendations for future prototypes to construct and
test.
Summary: Factorial Design (2k)
– Experiments with 3 factors can be represented as
a cube
– The disadvantage of full factorial designs is that
you quickly reach a high number of runs
• For a 2-level experiment the number of runs = 2k,
where k = number of factors
– We’ll see how to reduce the number of runs and
still enjoy the benefits of a factorial approach
• But for now, we will continue to discuss the concepts
and analysis of experiments using a full factorial
design
3 Principles of DOE
• Replication NOT Repetition
• Randomization
• Blocking
Replication
• Definition
• Replication means repeating all the experimental
conditions (or running a combination) two or more
times.
– This does not mean measuring an experimental unit twice
– It does mean repeating a certain set of conditions and
measuring the new output
– Two replicates means that for an 8-run design you will do
16 runs in one experiment
• Minitab will randomize all the runs (including replicates) at the
same time
• If for some reason you cannot, or choose not to, do all the runs at
the same time, you need to be concerned about blocking (a topic
we’ll discuss later in this module)
– One replicate really means no replication
Key to the Design of the Experiment is the Concept of
REPLICATION

REPLICATION: The independent observation of a treatment

An Experiment Unit Provides a Replication of the level of a


Factor if the level is randomly assigned the Experimental
Unit and observed independently of the other Experimental
Units

Must make sure that Sub-samples are not considered to be


Replications
Why Do Replicates?
– To measure pure error: the amount of variability among
runs performed at the same experimental conditions (this
represents common cause variation)
– To see more clearly whether or not a factor is important—
is the difference between responses due to a change in
factor conditions (an induced special cause) or is it due to
common cause variability?
– To see the effect of changing factor conditions not only on
the average response, but also on response variability, if
desired (two responses can be analyzed: the mean and the
st. dev.)

• Did you test replicates in the helicopter simulation?


Randomization:
The Experimenter’s Insurance
• Definition
• To assign the order in which the experimental trials will
be run using a random mechanism
– It is not the standard order
– It is not running trials in an order that is convenient
– To create a random order, you can “pull numbers from a hat” or
have Minitab randomize the sequence of trials for you

• Why?
– Averages the effect of any lurking variables over all of the
factors in the experiment
• Prevents the effect of a lurking variable from being mistakenly
attributed to another factor
– Helps validate statistical conclusions made from the experiment
Randomization
• Randomly assigned experimental unit.
• Averaged out external factors such as
humidity, temp, etc that affect the process.
Blocking
• Known sources of variability.
• Estimate the variation.
Lurking Variables
• Definition*
• A lurking variable is one that has an important effect
and yet is not included among the factors under
consideration because:
– Its existence is unknown
– Its influence is thought to be negligible
– Data on it are unavailable

• Safeguard
– Randomize the order of the experimental trials to protect against the
effect of lurking variables
– If a lurking variable creates a trend, it can be compensated for in the
numerical analysis
– Valid conclusions can still be drawn about the factors in the experiment
in spite of the presence of lurking variables
Where are we?
We’ve completed the
first six steps

1. Identify responses or output


2. Identify factors
Experiment
Design
3. Determination of factor levels and
range of factor setting
4. Choice of appropriate experimental
design
5. Run the experiment
6. Collect data and analyze data
Experiment
Analysis 7. Draw conclusions
8. Act on results
Full Factorial

Data Analysis
Manual Calculation
Graphical Analysis
Data Analysis
• Three phases of data analysis
Look for Identify large View effects
problems with effects on response
the data or the
model
• Pareto chart of • Main effects plot
effects
• Interaction plots
• P-values of effects
from ANOVA Table
• Normal Prob. Plot
Identify Large Effects
• Two types of effects

1. Main factor effects


• The overall effect of each factor on the response

2. Interaction effects
• Synergy between the positive or negative factors
Definition of Main Effect
• Definition
• The main effect is the average increase (or
decrease) in the response when moving from
the low to the high level of a factor.
• Formula for calculating main effects for each
factor:
Average of all Average of all

MAIN
EFFECT = observations at
High (+) level
observations at
Low (–) level
Minitab Uses the Design to Calculate
Main Effects
• Example: Main effect of Factor C
Std. Design Results
Order A B C Y (C)x(Y)
1 – – – 53 –53
2 + – – 62 –62 How would Minitab
3 – + – 65 –65 use the design to
4 + + – 94 –94 calculate the main
5 – – + 56 56 effect of Factor A?
6 + – + 66 66
Factor B?
7 – + + 47 47
8 + + + 80 80
–25

Main effect of Factor C Main effect of Factor C


[Using design above, (Using definition of
as shown by column (C)x(Y)] main effect)
= [Ave. at high] - [Ave. at low]
56 + 66 + 47 + 80   53 + 62 + 65 + 94 
–25 =   –  
C = = –6.25  4 4
4
= 249 - 274 = –6.25
4 4
Definition of Interaction Effects
• Definition
• An interaction occurs when the effect one factor has on the response (Y) is
not the same for each level of another factor.
No Interaction Interaction
(Parallel Lines) (Non-parallel Lines)
Response (Y)

Response (Y)

Factor B –
+ Factor B
+

– + – +
Factor A Factor A
• Formula for calculating the size of interaction effects:
( Effect of A for high B ) - (Effect of A for low B)
AB interaction =
2
Discussion: Interaction Example
Here is a plot that shows the effect of two factors on the response.
This is called an interaction plot.

1.90
x
x + Wing Length

Flight
1.80
Time

1.70 - Wing Length

70gm 80gm
Paper Type

Based on this plot, which wing length would you use?


Discussion: Answers
• Whether or not you reduce wing length
depends on which paper type is used:
– When 70gm paper is used, changing the wing
length does/does not improve results?
– When 80gm paper is used, reducing wing length
does/does not improve results (increased flight
time) ?
• When the conclusion for one factor depends
on another factor…this is an interaction.
Interpreting Interaction Plots
Positive Main Effect No Main Effect
of A of A

Response
Response
Factor B
No
+ – Factor B
Interaction +
(Parallel Lines)

– + –Factor A+
Factor A

Response
+
Response

Factor B
Small Factor B
+ –
Interaction

–Factor A+
– +
Factor A

– Response +
Response

Large Factor B Factor B


Interaction
+ –

– + –Factor A +
Factor A
Full Factorial

Data Analysis (Minitab Output)


Graphical Analysis
Statistical Analysis
Deciding Which Effects Are Large
(“Significant”)
• Three ways to decide which effects are large:
– P-value for each effect
– Pareto chart of effects
– Normal probability plot of effects

• We’ll walk through a Minitab example to look


at each of these outcomes.
Follow Along: Main Effects and
Interactions, cont.
Follow Along: Main Effects and
Interactions, cont.
• P-Value for each effect—MSD example
Size of the Called “standardized If P-value <.05,
effect effects” on the plots then the effect
Fractional Factorial Fit
is significant
Estimated Effects and Coefficients for Bends (coded units)

Overall Term Effect Coef StDev Coef** T P*


average Constant 15.688 0.9902 15.84 0.000
Vendor -0.875 -0.437 0.9902 -0.44 0.670 The Heat
Main Size 1.125 0.562 0.9902 0.57 0.586 main effect
effects Heat 8.125 4.062 0.9902 4.10 0.003
Vendor*Size -5.125 -2.563 0.9902 -2.59 0.032 and
Vendor*Heat -1.625 -0.813 0.9902 -0.82 0.436 Vendor*Size
Inter- Size*Heat 1.375 0.688 0.9902 0.69 0.507
actions
interaction are
Vendor*Size*Heat 1.625 0.812 0.9902 0.82 0.436
statistically
Analysis of Variance for Bends (coded units) significant
Source DF Seq SS Adj SS Adj MS F P
Main Effects 3 272.187 272.187 90.73 5.78 0.021
2-Way Interactions 3 123.188 123.188 41.06 2.62 0.123
3-Way Interactions 1 10.562 10.562 10.56 0.67 0.436
Residual Error 8 125.500 125.500 15.69
Pure Error 8 125.500 125.500 15.69 =3.96 Bends
Total 15 531.438

From “Pooled” st. dev.


replicates To interpret this By changing from of replicates
value, you need to “No Heat” to “Heat,”
see the interaction we increase the
plot. For now, we number of bends by
know that this 8.125 on average
interaction, and none
of the others, is
significant.
Follow Along: Main Effects and
Interactions, cont.
Follow Along: Main Effects and
Interactions, cont.
View Effects on the Response
• Three ways to view effects from the
experiment on the response:
– Main effects plots
– Interaction plots

Main Effects
Here is a typical Main Effects plot
Plot
Main Effects Plot (data means) for Response (Y)
Low A High A Low B High B Low C High C

90 Positive Negative Non-significant


effect of A effect of C
Response (Y)

effect of B
85

80

75

70

A B C

Dotted line indicates


– overall
The Main Effects Plot is an average
efficient way to see the change in the
average response (Y) for each factor
– Use P-values from the output to discern which effects are significant
(distinguishable from common cause variation)
Interaction Plot
Interaction Plot (data means) for Response (Y)
Low B High B Low C High C
100
A
Average
High A 80 response
(Y)
Low A
Non-significant Non-significant 60
interaction of AB interaction of AC
100
B
Average
High B 80
response
(Y)
Low B
Significant 60
interaction of BC

C
Exercise 4: Interpreting the Factorial
Plots, cont.
1.Use Minitab to construct each of the plots.
Stat > DOE > Factorial Plots

Each Setup window looks the same

Clicking the double arrow key moves all


the “Available” factors into the “Selected”
box
Exercise 4: Interpreting the Factorial
Plots, cont.
2. The instructor will assign each small group a
particular plot. As a team, prepare a brief
presentation (2 minutes or less) on that plot.
• Compare your plot to the corresponding plot on the
following pages.
• Give conclusions and make recommendations for factor
settings to maximize durability of clips
3. If time allows, study the other two types of plots
as well.
Exercise 4: Interpreting the Factorial
Plots, cont.
Exercise 4: Interpreting the Factorial
Plots, cont.
Exercise 4: Interpreting the Factorial
Plots, cont.
Exercise 4: Answers
• Conclusions from Main Effects plot
• Large positive slope (from lower left to upper right)
• Significant P-value

– The main factor effects


• Their p-values are non-significant (indistinguishable
from common cause variation—close to overall average
of about 16 bends)

• Recommendations
Step 8: Drawing Conclusions
• At the end of your analysis:
– List all your conclusions
– Interpret the meaning of these results
• For example, relate them to known physical properties,
engineering theories, or your own personal knowledge
– Make recommendations
– Formulate and write conclusions in simple
language
The Prediction Equation
– You can use the factor coefficients generated in
Minitab to write an equation that
• Quantifies the relationship between Y and the factors
• Can be used to make predictions of various
combinations
– It’s similar to the regression equation
Using Coefficients:
A Prediction Equation
• Prediction equations for discrete factors
– The prediction equation works the same for both
discrete and continuous factors
– The constant (overall average) is in the equation
– The coefficients for discrete factors are the amount
you add or subtract from the overall average
• Whether you add or subtract depends both on whether
the effect is negative or positive and how you coded the
levels (e.g., yes = –1, no = +1)
Dropping Terms from the
Prediction Equation
• Minitab command: Stat > DOE > Analyze Factorial > Terms

Leave these in the model; drop the others


(this is sometimes called reduced terms
analysis). If an interaction is significant, it is
standard practice to include the main effects
of the factors involved, even if the main
factors by themselves aren’t significant.

Output

Estimated Coefficients for Bends


using data in uncoded units

Term Coef Since factor


Constant 15.688
levels are discrete
Vendor -0.437
Size 0.562 for the MSD
Heat 4.062 experiment,
Vendor*Size -2.563 coefficients are
the same for
“coded” and
“uncoded” units.
Validate Results
• There are two key ways to verify the
conclusions drawn from an experiment:
– Confirmatory runs—run a few additional
experiments at the recommended settings to see if
the desired response is achieved
– Make actual recommended process changes—
change the process and monitor it on a control
chart to assure that the desired response is
achieved and maintained
– NOTE: Fabricate Five (5) Additional Paper
Helicopters To Verify Your Results!
Practical Implications of
Conducting a Designed Experiment
• Before the experiment
A. Preliminaries
B. Identifying responses, factors, and factor levels
C. Selecting the design

• During the experiment


D.Collecting the data

• After the experiment


E. Analyzing the data
F. Drawing, verifying, and reporting conclusions
G.Implementing recommendations
DoE References
Box, George E.P., William G. Hunter and J. Stuart Hunter. Statistics for
Experimenters. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1978.
Lochner, Robert H. and Joseph E. Matar. Designing for Quality: An
Introduction to the Best of Taguchi and Western Methods of Statistical
Experimental Design. Jointly published by Quality Resources (800-247-
8519) and ASQC Quality Press (800-952-6587). White Plains, NY:
Quality Resources, 1990.
Moen, Ronald D., Thomas W. Nolan and Lloyd P. Provost. Planned
Experimentation to Improve Quality. Austin, TX: Associates in Process
Improvement, 1989.
Snee, Ronald D., Lynne B. Hare and J. Richard Trout. Experiments in
Industry: Design, Analysis, and Interpretation. Milwaukee, WI:
American Society for Quality Control, 1985.
Wheeler, Donald J. Understanding Industrial Experimentation. Knoxville,
TN: Statistical Process Controls, Inc., 1987.