Past Future
Observations Suggestions
(Vol2) (Vol1)
Ch.1=Spread throughout
In February 2016
Past Future
Observations Suggestions
(Vol2) (Vol1)
5.Infra 6.HRD
•V2C8-Paris Summit, Energy •V2C9-Social infra.
•V1C11-Powering 1 India •V1C5-mother-child
Ch.1=Spread throughout
Survey
Introduction & Boxes- state Should Read
Download:
conclusion data for indiabudget.nic.in/
(Mains/Essay) interview
Past Future
Observations Suggestions
(Vol2) (Vol1)
B5. Agro: 2x B6. Rural infra- B7. Infrastructure B8. Social Sector
farmer income employment & healthcare
9 Pillars to
B9. Education, Transform India
Skills, Jobs
Theory +Economic Survey Vol.2 + Vol.1 + Budget 2016
1.Banking Finance 2.Budget-Fiscal Policy
•V1C1- Twin Balancesheet •V2C2-Pub.Fin; V1C3-JAM
•V2C3-Monetary mgmt+FI •V1C6-bounties; V1C7-Fiscal
•V2C1- Chakravyuh challenge Cap
•B1. Financial Sector Reforms •B2. Fiscal Discipline
•B3. Tax Reforms; B4. Ease of
5.Infra 6.HRD
•V2C8-Paris Summit, Energy •V2C9-Social infra.
•V1C11-Powering 1 India •V1C5-mother-child
•B6. Rural infra- •B8. Social Sector &
employment healthcare
•B7. Infrastructure •B9. Education, Skills, Jobs
Assets 40%
•Loans PSL
Classification of Bank’s assets
Capital
Equity (Owners/ Proprietors) Find addl. investors
•Partnership, IPO-Shares, VCF, Angel Investor if possible
•Dividend if profit
•Last claim during liquidation
RBI Framework #2: Restructuring
Debt (Creditors) Change tenure/interest%
•Bonds/Debentures/Loans
•Must pay interest, principal irrespective of profit / loss
•First claim during liquidation
For individual,
For companies Partnership firms
NCLT Goto DRT
I&B Code- new statutory body to oversee
Bankruptcy
1) What are the major changes brought in
the Arbitration and Conciliation Act,
1996 through rencet Ordinance? How Bankruptcy
far will it improve India’s dispute
resolution mechanism? (GSM2-2015) & Resolution
2) Discuss the significance of I&B Code
2015 to fill up the systemic vacuum
exists that exists regarding bankruptcy
situations in Indian firms.
3) OR Chakravyuh / Twin Balance sheet
problem fodder.
4) I&B Code updates on PRS-Link
Q3-2015: Financial statements of PSBs (Rs.Crore)
1500 1115
1000 =Oct, Nov, Dec.
500
51
0
-500 BoB Dena Allahabad PNB SBI
-1000 -662.85 -486.14
-1500
#EPICFAIL in 62%▼
-2000
-2500 History of Indian
Banking Industry
-3000 93% less profit then earlier
-3500 year’s same quarter (Oct-Dec)
-3342
-4000
BoB Dena Allahabad PNB SBI
Why suddenly losses/less profits?
Coming soon in
future lectures
Downstream
•Discoms: debt problems
(more in Infra-lecture)
Large Corporate houses: finance problems
Debt (Creditors) Banks not giving addl. Loans, giving
high leverage ratios of cos.
•Bonds/Debentures/Loan
•Must pay interest, principal irrespective of profit / loss
•First claim during liquidation
Capital
Equity (Owners/ Proprietors)
•Partnership, IPO-Shares, VCF, Angel Investor
•Dividend if profit Cos. Delaying
• China, Global slowdown, low demand=>
•Last claim during liquidation future expansion
• 50% of cos who issued IPOs in 2015,
trading below issue price plans
• If FPO issued, won’t fetch much Rs.
ES15-V1c1: Twin Balance Sheet Problem
NPA+provisioning Not repaying
+ ▼credit growth Not borrowing
+ ▼deposit growth Not expanding
+double financial Not good for GDP
repression and jobs
A&R / C&C
Banking Sector: What’s New?
Past Future
Observations Suggestions
(Vol2) (Vol1)
9 10.8
??
9% 9%
100 120
9+__
9%
120
From Bank’s Point of view
Liabilities NDTL
•Demand Deposit CRR
•Time Deposit SLR
Assets 40%
•Loans PSL
Suppose a bank is started
Debt NDTL:
Capital 200 Cr
9 Cr. (-) CRR,SLR,
Equity Op.Expenditure
150 Cr
But these assets Circulated in
carry risk loans= “ASSET”
Formula wrong, just for illustration
Loan Asset Risk weight
G-Sec 10%
Home Loan 20% RWA
120 Cr.
Crop Loans 50%
SMA 60%
BASEL: Min. Capital to Risk weighed Assets Ratio 9%
Capital
Capital T1+T2
9% CRAR
RWA: 120cr
Recapitalization of PSB by 31st March 2019
Govt: 70kCr
(IndraDhanush)
Capital: ___?
9% CRAR for BASEL-III
RWA: 120 LCr
Recapitalization: addl. 1.8 lakh cr. by 31/03/2019
Govt employees’ 7th PC award- 50% of increased salary
Debt (Creditors) be given in form of bonds “Capitalization Bonds”;
•Bonds/Debentures/Loan optional for pensioners & lower staff
•Must pay interest, principal irrespective of profit / loss
•First claim during liquidation
Addl. Capital
1.8 lakh cr.
70kcr Preferential shares 1.10 Lakh cr.
Equity (Owners/ Proprietors) to govt. (Indradhanush) remains
•Partnership, IPO-Shares, VCF, Angel Investor
•Dividend if profit
•Last claim during liquidation
PSB can issue FPO, but govt. shareholding
must remain >50% (Except IDBI)
Twin Balance sheet Problem: Public sector Banks
Govt: 70kCr
(IndraDhanush)
3. Existing Shares
PSB have 9+ ___ selling below book
+ Capital value in Market
4. 50% of IPOs from
10.8 Lcr. Market __? 2015 selling below
By 31st March 2019 issue price
10
9
8
Hints the deterioration of Asset quality
6
Chronology MCQ
asked in prelim
Watch to L1/P9
Classification
DFI
After
Narsimhan-II
1998
• IFCI Govt. owned
• ND: non-deposit
taking
• SI: asset >500cr.
2015
Future plan, As per Monetary policy 2016 April.
NPA
Quantity wise majority of NPA comes
from large borrowers. Need DFI?
DFI capable of giving long term project
loans
but Narsimhan-II: DFIs like ICICI, IDBI
became commercial banks.
Although Germany, Japan, China and
Brazil still have DFIs
1964: Industrial Development Bank of
India (IDBI) - a developmental financial Budget 2016
institution [DFI] under RBI
1998: Narsimhan-II: no DFI
IDBI=> IDBI Bank ltd. (Govt 80%)
Budget 2016: may ▼ Shareholding to
<50% in IDBI Bank ltd.
International Finance Corporation (of
IDBI
W.B.) keen to invest in IDBI Transformation
Govt Owned Stakes in Axis
Transforming IDBI like Axis Life Insurance Corporation of India 14.99
Privat
e
69%
Twin Balance Sheet Syndrome –how to fix?
Std. SMA
Past Future
Observations Suggestions
(Vol2) (Vol1)
R) SA=NPA+Written off
रट्टा मारो ज िंदाबाद!
NPA
SC asks list of defaulters 500Cr/+;
criticized RBI for oversight
SC & RBI on
RBI: Names in sealed envelop Defaulters
Can’t disclose names Unless willful
defaulter.
Every defaulter is not willful defaulter
Separate Morality
•Loan can become bad loan out of bad luck, regulatory from NPA - Rajan
clearance, partners' betrayal, time and cost overruns
•Only in Fraction of cases- criminality involved.
•Entrepreneurial wealth is not sinful. But each should have
opportunity.
Bifurcation of
NPA: 4R4D BIC
CMD Post
Bank
BBB Misc.
consolidation
Government transfers its shares of Public sector banks,
to this “Core Investment Company”
RBI’s
Government no longer P.J.Nayak
Controls their Committee
Board of Directors
=higher efficiency 2014
=higher profits
All these Sarkaari banks become “Subsidiary Companies” of BIC
PROFIT
Board of Directors
DIVIDEND
SHARE-HOLDERS
BEFORE
PROFIT
Board of Directors
DIVIDEND
SHARE-HOLDERS
After:
Indradhanush
Bifurcation
P.S.Jayakumar (earlier in NBFC) + Private
MD & CEO professional
can apply
Ravi Venkatesan
(Infosys indp. director)
PROFIT
Non-XO Chairman
Board of Directors
DIVIDEND
SHARE-HOLDERS
But who will select PSB Bankers in professional manner?
BBB recommended by
2014: P J Nayak
Committee
2015: Gyan Sangam
(Pune)
2015: Budget
2016, April:
Operational
2 years term Structure: Bank board bureau (WEF 1/4/2016)
Article 148 (4): CAG not eligible for
Chairman • Vinod Rai (former CAG) further office under Union/State
Government ????
Bifurcation of
NPA: 4R4D BIC
CMD Post
Bank
BBB Misc.
consolidation
Why Bank consolidation? Rise of Pvt Commercial Banks in India (Ref: L1/P7)
2001 2013
• Kotak • Bandhan
• Yes Bank • IDFC
Telecom and civil aviation: Did not Why reform?
privatize BSNL/Air India, but
allowed private entry= competition= Competition
Success missing?
Same strategy in Banking: 3
rounds of licensing
LPG-reforms: pvt. sector led
growth, but majority finance not
from pvt = “competition missing”
“Too big to fail” mentality among
PSBs, we’ll be recapitalized
Reforms
1. Gyan Sangam-II
(Gurgaon/Gurugram-2016): Bank Bank
consolidation consolidation
2. Government to setup expert panel
3. SBI, BoB, PNB, Canara as anchor
banks. Smaller banks to be
merged in them.
1. Earlier State Bank of Saurashtra Reforms
(2008) and Indore (2010) were Bank
merged with SBI consolidation
2. Consolidation: geographical &
technological synergies; ▼ NPA;
▼ recapitalize
3. Anti:-
1. big PSBs unwilling to absorb
weaker banks.
2. SBI: merger will improve
nothing
SBI owns ~75% to 100% in each of these banks
1913: Mysore 1917: Patiyala 1941: Hyderabad
• Maharaja of Mysore on • Maharaja Bhupinder Singh • Nizam Mir Osman Ali Khan; Also
M.Vishweshwariah (Bharat issued Osmania Sicca
Ratna) Committee • ‘48: Operation Polo.
• SBI owns 90% shares
• 73% falls in Q3-2015
Bifurcation of
NPA: 4R4D BIC
CMD Post
Bank
BBB Misc.
consolidation
Indra-dhanush
1. Non-interference by Government
in bank operations. Empowerment
Accountability
2. Grievances Redressal Mechanism governance reforms
for customers and Staff
3. Gyan Sangam conclave for PSB,
FI, Government
Indradhanush: Key Performance Indicators (KPIs): 4 sections 100 marks