By Hari Prasad.S
www.GodAndScience.org
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Introduction
• Is the world getting warmer?
• If so, are the actions of mankind to
blame for earth’s temperature
increases?
• What can/should be done about these
issues?
• Are the potential resolutions worth the
cost to implement them?
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History of Earth’s Climate
• Earth formed ~4.6 billion years ago
• Originally very hot
• Sun’s energy output only 70% of
present
• Liquid water present ~4.3 billion years
ago (zircon dating)
• Much of earth’s early history erased
during late heavy bombardment (~3.9
billion years ago)
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History of Earth’s Climate
• Life appeared ~3.8 billion years ago
• Photosynthesis began 3.5-2.5 billion
years ago
Produced oxygen and removed carbon
dioxide and methane (greenhouse gases)
Earth went through periods of cooling
(“Snowball Earth”) and warming
• Earth began cycles of glacial and
interglacial periods ~3 million years
ago
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Earth’s Temperature
Solar
Sun
Energy
Solar
Energy
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Earth’s Temperature
Sun
Solar Radiative
Cooling
Energy
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Earth’s Temperature
Sun
Solar
Radiative
Cooling
Energy
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Earth’s Temperature
Sun
Solar
Radiative
Energy Cooling
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Sun Greenhouse Effect
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Earth’s Atmospheric Gases
Nitrogen (N2)
Non-
Oxygen (O2) Greenhouse
>99%
Gases
Argon (Ar)
Water (H2O)
Greenhouse
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) <1%
Gases
Methane (CH4) Hariprasads.venture@gmail.com
Sun Runaway Greenhouse Effect
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Carbon Dioxide
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Carbon Dioxide Levels
420 Muana Loa Readings
CO2 Levels Since 1958
CO2 (ppm)
370 370
350
CO2 (ppm)
330
320 310
40 30 20 10 0
270
220
Dome Concordia Vostok Ice Core
170 600000 400000 200000 0
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Time (YBP)
Worldwide Carbon Emissions
8
Carbon (109 metric tons)
Total
7 Liquid fuel
6 Solid fuel
Gas fuel
5
4
3
2
1
0
1750 1800 1850 1900
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1950 2000
Year
Annual Carbon Emissions
8
Carbon (109 metric tons)
0
1955 1965 1975 1985
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Year
Future Carbon Dioxide Levels
• Increasing CO2 emissions, especially in
China and developing countries
• Likely to double within 150 years:
Increased coal usage
Increased natural gas usage
Decreased petroleum usage (increased
cost and decreasing supply)
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Kyoto Protocol
• Adopted in 1997
• Cut CO2 emissions by 5% from 1990
levels for 2008-2012
• Symbolic only, since cuts will not
significantly impact global warming
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Past Temperatures
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Recorded Worldwide Flat
Temperatures
0.8
Mean Temperature (°C)
0.6
0.4 Decreasing
Flat
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960
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Year
Historic Los Angeles
Temperatures
Annual Temperatures Summer Temperatures Winter Temperatures
22 25 17
21 24 16
20 23 15
Temperature (°C)
19 22 14
18 21 13
17 20 12
16 19 11
15 18 10
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
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Year Year Year
2009 Temperature Changes
Compared to 1951-1980
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-4.1 -4 -2 -1 -.5 -.2 .2 .5 1 2 4 4.1
Past Temperatures Measurement
• Proxy – a method that approximates a
particular measurement (e.g.,
temperature)
Tree rings
Ice cores
Pollen records
Plant macrofossils
Sr/Ca isotope data
Oxygen isotopes from speleothem calcite
(stalactites and stalagmites)
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Temperature History of the Earth
• Little ice age (1400-1840) – 1°C cooler
• Medieval warm period (800-1300) – 1°C
warmer than today
• Cool/warm cycles occur ~1,500 years
• Affect mostly Northeastern U.S. and North
Atlantic
• Mostly due to changes in thermohaline
circulation
• Dramatic shutdown of thermohaline
circulation occurred 8,200 years ago as a
large lake in Canada flooded the North
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Main Ocean Currents
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Orbital Parameters: Precession
Apehelion Perihelion
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Orbital Parameters: Obliquity
24.5°
22.5°
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Orbital Parameters: Eccentricity
Maximum: 0.061
Minimum: 0.005
Apehelion
Apehelion Perihelion
To Scale!
Not to scale!
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Orbital Parameters & Earth’s Climate
Precession
(22 ky)
Obliquity
(41 ky)
Eccentricity
(100 ky)
Temperature
1000 900Hariprasads.venture@gmail.com
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Age (kya)
Temperature History of the Earth
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Younger Dryas Event
-25 Younger 0.35
Medieval Warm
-35 0.25
-50 0.10
-55 0.05
20 15 10 5
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0
Age (kya)
Younger Dryas Event
-8.0 -34
Younger
-7.5 Dryas -35
-36
-7.0
18O (Greenland)
-37
18O (China)
-6.5 -38
-6.0 -39
-5.5 -40
-41
-5.0
-42
-4.5 -43
-4.0 -44
16 15 14 13 12 11
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Age (kya)
Temperature History of the Earth
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Temperature History of the Earth
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Temperature History of the Earth
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A Compilation of Phanerozoic
Atmospheric CO2 Records
6000
5000
Concentration (ppmV)
Atmospheric CO2
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
30
Continental Glaciation
(Paleolatitude)
60
S D Carb P Tr J K Pg Ng
90
Paleozoic Mesozoic
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400 300 200 100 0
Breecker D O et al. PNAS 2010;107:576-580
Recent Temperature
Changes
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“Hockey Stick” Controversy
0.6
Temperature Change (°C)
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Is the Hockey Stick Correct?
2
Temperature Change (°C)
-1
-2
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Year
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Is the Hockey Stick Correct?
0.4
Medieval Warm Period
Temperature Change (°C)
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
Mann et al. 1999
-0.8 Esper et al. 2002
-1.0 Moberg et al. 2005
Mann et al. 2008
-1.2
0 400 800 1200 1600 2000
Year
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U.S. National Academy of
Sciences: June 2006
0.6
Temperature Change (°C)
0.6
1.0
0.4
0.2 0.5
0.0 0.0
-0.2
-0.5
-0.4
-0.6 -1.0
1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000
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Year Year
CO2 Concentration Vs. Temperature
370
320 31
30
270 29
28
220 27
26
170
600000 400000 200000
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025
Time (YBP)
Consequences of
Global Warming
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Global Warming Primarily Impacts
the Northern Hemisphere
Northern vs. Southern Latitude Land vs. Ocean
1.0
Temperature Change (°C)
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-4.1 -4 -2 -1 -.5 -.2 .2 .5 1 2 4 4.1
Ice Sheets Melting?
• GRACE (gravity measured by satellite)
found melting of Antarctica equivalent
to sea level rise of 0.4 mm/year (2
in/century)
• Zwally, 2005 (satellite radar
altimetry)
confirmed Antarctica melting
Greenland ice melting on
exterior, accumulating inland
(higher precipitation)
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Melting Glaciers – Mt. Kilimanjaro
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Changes in Antarctica Ice Mass
1000
800
600
Ice Mass (km3)
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
2003 2004 2005
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Year
Rise in Sea Levels?
• Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4
in/century)
• Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ± 0.006
mm/yr2
• If acceleration continues, could result
in 12 in/century sea level rise
• Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more
rise are unrealistic
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Changing Sea Levels
20
10
-20
29
-40
28
-60
-80 27
-100 26
-120 25
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Time (KYBP)
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Increase in Hurricanes?
15
• Two studies
Data Unreliable
SST/SPDI (meters3/sec2)
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Wildlife Effects
• Polar Bears
Require pack ice to live
Might eventually go extinct in the wild
• Sea turtles
Breed on the same islands as
their birth
Could go extinct on some islands
as beaches are flooded
• Other species may go extinct as rainfall
patterns change throughout the world
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Effect on Humans
• Fewer deaths from cold, more from
heat
• Decreased thermohaline circulation
Cooler temperatures in North Atlantic
• CO2 fertilization effect
• Precipitation changes
Droughts and famine (some areas)
Expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union
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Potential Worldwide Precipitation
Changes
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Cost to Stabilize CO2
Concentrations
1800
Cost (Trillons U.S. Dollars)
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
450 550 650 750
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Carbon Dioxide (ppm)
Possible Solutions to
Global Warming
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Mitigation of Global Warming
• Conservation
Reduce energy needs
Recycling
• Alternate energy sources
Nuclear
Wind
Geothermal
Hydroelectric
Solar
Fusion? Hariprasads.venture@gmail.com
Storage of CO2 in Geological Formations
1.
1. Depleted
Depleted oil
oil and
and gas
gas reservoirs
reservoirs
2.
2. CO
CO22 in
in enhanced
enhanced oiloil and
and gas
gas recovery
recovery
3.
3. Deep
Deep saline
saline formations
formations –– (a)
(a) offshore
offshore (b)
(b) onshore
onshore
4.
4. CO
CO22 in
in enhanced
enhanced coal
coal bed
bed methane
methane recovery
recovery
1 4
3b
3a
2
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Global Warming Has Stopped?
0.8 1366.8
1366.6
Mean Temperature (°C)
0.4 1366.2
1366.0
0.2 1365.8
1365.6
0.0
1365.4
-0.2 1365.2
1975 1980 1985 Hariprasads.venture@gmail.com
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Volcanoes Put Out More CO2
Than Fossil Fuel Burning
Carbon (109 metric tons)
10
0
Volcanoes Fossil Fuel
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Global Warming is Caused by
Sunspots
0.8 250
Mean Temperature (°C)
0.6
200
0.4
Sunspots
0.2 150
0.0 100
-0.2
50
-0.4
-0.6 0
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980
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Year
Hadley Temperatures Vs.
Sunspots
1.5 250
Mean Temperature (°C)
1.0 200
0.0
Sunspots
150
-0.5
100
-1.0
-1.5 50
-2.0 0
1750 1800 1850 1900
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Year
Global Warming is Caused by
GCR
1.0 4600
4400
Mean Temperature (°C)
0.8
20
4 300
20
280
Sea Level
-20
0
Temperature
CO2 (ppmv)
260
-40
-2
Relative
240
-60
-4
220
-80
-6
-100
-8 200
-120
-10 180
500000 400000 Hariprasads.venture@gmail.com
300000 200000 100000 0
Time (ybp)
Rohling et al. 2009. Antarctic temperature and global sea level closely coupled over the last five glacial cycles. Nature Geoscience 2:500.
Global Warming is Due to Urban
Heat Islands
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-4.1 -4 -2 -1 -.5 -.2 .2 .5 1 2 4 4.1
Mt. Kilimanjaro’ Glaciers are Melting
Because of Global Warming
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Global Warming Primarily Impacts
the Northern Hemisphere
Northern vs. Southern Latitude Land vs. Ocean
1.0
Temperature Change (°C)
10
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Predictions Vs. Reality
1.5 Annual Mean Global Temperature Change
1.0
T (°C)
0.5
Drastic reduction in carbon emissions
0 OBSERVED
SCENARIO A
SCENARIO B
SCENARIO C
-0.4
1960 1970 1980 1990
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Hansen, J. 1988. Journal Of Geophysical Research 93:9241. Date
Temperature Extrapolation
2.5
2.0
1.5
T (°C)
1.0
0.5
-0.4
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
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2060 2080 2100
Date
Conclusions
• Global warming is happening
• Most warming is probably the result of
human activities
• There will be positive and negative
(mostly) repercussions from global
warming
• The costs to mitigate global warming
will be high – better spent elsewhere?
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