Airport Engineering

Forecasting

Lecture 9
 LECTURE OUTLINE

 Introduction to Forecasting

 Conventional Methods

 Analytical Methods
 Generation Models

 Distribution Models

 Mode Choice Models

 Generation-Distribution Models

 Airport Choice Models

 INTRODUCTION

In a mode in which demand is continuously

increasing at a significant rate, an estimate of
the magnitude of demand at future points in
time is essential.

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 INTRODUCTION

Forecasting is necessary due to the following

reasons

 To get an idea of the number of new aircrafts

required
 To help airlines in their long term planning
 To assist government in airport planning

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 CONVENTIONAL METHODS

 Judgment
 Surveys of expectations
 Trend forecasting
 Base forecasting

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ANALYTICAL METHODS

DEMAND MODELING

Conventionally, modeling procedure is divided

into four distinct consecutive steps.
Modal
Generation Distribution Assignment
choice

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 ANALYTICAL METHODS

DEMAND MODELLING

In case of air transport, the model chain is

simplified as follows:

Air Trip Generation Air Trip Distribution

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 VARIABLES FOR DEMAND MODELING

The basic factors used in the passenger demand modeling are

as follows:

 A supply of people
 A motivation to travel
 Resources available (time and money)
 Transport infrastructure

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 DEMAND ANALYSIS PROCEDURE
 Observation of past trends
 Identification of external variables that act as alternatives to
the basic factors
 A base survey collecting the socioeconomic data
 Establishment of relationships between variables and level of
transport demand
 Prediction of variables in the design year
 Prediction of future demand from relationships.

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 GENERATION MODELS
 Market Analysis

 Trend Analysis (As described earlier)

 Cross-classification analysis

 Regression Analysis

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 GENERATION MODELS
 Cross-Classification Analysis

 Population stratified into segments according to socio-

economic characteristics
 Behavior of each segment is estimated
 Constant trip rate of each segment assumed
 Future demand is computed on the basis of forecasted segment
sizes

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GENERATION MODELS

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DISTRIBUTION MODELS

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DISTRIBUTION MODELS

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 MODAL CHOICE MODELS

 Generate non-mode-specific intercity movements

 Distribute according to travel limitations

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MODAL CHOICE MODELS

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 GENERATION-DISTRIBUTION MODELS

 Two types

 Mode-specific Models
 Multimodal Models

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MODE-SPECIFIC MODELS

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MULTI-MODAL MODELS

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AIRPORT CHOICE MODELS

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 Any
Questions

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