Republic of the Philippines

Provincial Government of Davao Oriental

Davao Oriental State College of Science and Technology

Sample researches about natural

hazard

Jonathan S. Cabrera
Presenter

10.22.2018
List of Researches:
● Quantitative Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Flood Risk
in Davao Oriental, Philippines

● Data Analysis of Earthquake Occurrences in the Province of Davao

Oriental.

● Climate Change Impact on Species Distribution of Styrax sumatrana in

North Sumatra using Maximum Entropy Modeling Approach. (example of
biodiversity research)
 Quantitative Assessment of Climate Change
Impacts on Flood Risk in Davao Oriental,
Philippines

Published Article: Cabrera, J.S., Lee, H.S., 2018a. Impacts of Climate Change on Flood-Prone Areas in
Davao Oriental, Philippines. Water 10, 893. https://doi.org/10.3390/W10070893

In-review : Cabrera, J.S., Lee, H.S., 2018b. Flood-prone Area Assessment using GIS-based Multi-Criteria
Analysis: A Case Study in Davao Oriental, Philippines. J. Hydro-environment Res.
Email: jonathan.Cabrera@doscst.edu.ph
Quantitative Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Flood Risk
in Davao Oriental, Philippines : Results
Quantitative Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Flood Risk
in Davao Oriental, Philippines : Limitations – Data Scarcity
 We don’t have WEATHER
Datasets STATIONS
Flowchart of the Flood Risk Assessment

Satellite Image Collected database

AsterGDEM v2, (C7) Population

(C1) Slope (C2) Elevation (C5) Soil type
30m. density
(2015 CENSUS,
Fill Sink (C6) Rainfall Projection)
(Observation,
Stream Projection)
Flow Direction
(C3) Drainage (C4) Distance to
density Flow the main channels
Accumulation

Defining relative important weight based on

AHP, WR, and RW
Flood-prone areas Flood Risk
(Flood hazard map)
Map
Model Validation
(70 points of historical floods)

Identify the superior model

Interpretation and recommendations for flood risk mitigation

NCDC: National Climatic Data Center 7
GPCC: Global Precipitation Climatology Centre
CMIP5: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5
 Republic of the Philippines
Provincial Government of Davao Oriental
Davao Oriental State College of Science and Technology

THANK YOU

Published Article: Cabrera, J.S., Lee, H.S., 2018a. Impacts of Climate Change on Flood-Prone Areas in
Davao Oriental, Philippines. Water 10, 893. https://doi.org/10.3390/W10070893

In-review : Cabrera, J.S., Lee, H.S., 2018b. Flood-prone Area Assessment using GIS-based Multi-Criteria
Analysis: A Case Study in Davao Oriental, Philippines. J. Hydro-environment Res.
Email: jonathan.Cabrera@doscst.edu.ph

October 22, 2018

9
● Data Analysis of Earthquake Occurrences in the
Province of Davao Oriental
(in preparation for publication)
Data Acquisition:
● Seismic data from year 2011 to year 2017
were collected from the Philippine
Institute of Volcanology and Seismology
(http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph).
Frequency Analysis:
Frequency Analysis:
Frequency Analysis:
 Climate Change Impact on
Species Distribution of Styrax sumatrana in North
Sumatra using Maximum Entropy Modeling Approach

How high do we have to go to

survive due to the climate change

? high

middle

low
Research Flowchart
To Identify the variable that contributed to Styrax sumatrana distribution in North Sumatra
To predict the distribution of Styrax sumatrana in future scenario due to the climate change

Multi-source
datasets Climatic factors
1. Styrax sumatrana
presence location Potential
Maximum
2. Altitude distribution in
Biophysical factors Entropy
3. Slope Future
modeling
4. Aspect Scenarios
5. Soil Type
6. Bioclimate Anthropogenic
7. Land use & cover factors

Data Collection/
Species Distribution Model (SDM) output
Analysis
16
Result: LULC prediction maps
2000 2050 2070

Figure 10. LULC maps in 2000, 2050 and 2070

Table 7 . Percentages of LULC changes for 4 classification between 2000, 2050 and 2070
Classification Percentage (%) of land use changes
2070-2050 2070-2000 2050-2000 2010-2000
Crop -0.0012 -1.2860 -1.2848 -0.9777
Forest and Plantation -0.0477 -1.7256 -1.6779 -1.5164
Garden and rice field 0.0073 0.3606 0.3532 0.6102
Shrub 0.0220 0.1768 0.1547 0.0471 17
Result: Maxent Table 8. Variables percent contribution in Maxent model
Variable Description Percent contribution
Present bio 11_styrax Mean temperature of coldest quarter 28.5
locations alt_styrax Elevation 26.3
Lulc_styarx Land use and land cover 15.4
soiltype_styrax type of soil based on FAO classification 7.4
bio2_styrax Annual mean diurnal range temperature 5
bio19_styrax Precipitation of coldest quarter 3.1
aspect_styrax The degree of aspect related compass 2.8
bio3_styrax Iso-thermality 2.7
bio17_styrax Precipitation of driest quarter 2.3
Probability bio16_styrax Precipitation of wettest quarter 2.1
slope_styrx The degree of slope 1.5
bio18_styrax Precipitation of warmest quarter 0.7
bio15_styrax Precipitation seasonality 0.5
bio5_styrax The Maximum temperature of warmest month 0.4
bio7_styrax Annual temperature range 0.4
bio4_styrax Temperature seasonality 0.3
bio13_styrax precipitation of wettest month 0.2
bio8_styrax Mean temperature of wettest quarter 0.1
bio6_styrax The Minimum temperature of the coldest month 0
bio10_styrax Mean temperature of warmest quarter 0
bio14_styrax Precipitation of driest month 0
Suitable area: probability 0.4-1
bio9_styrax mean temperature of the driest quarter 0
Not suitable area: probability 0-0.39 bio12_styrax Annual precipitation 0
bio1_styrax Annual mean temperature 0 18
 THANK YOU

Published Article: Cabrera, J.S., Lee, H.S., 2018a. Impacts of Climate Change on Flood-Prone Areas in
Davao Oriental, Philippines. Water 10, 893. https://doi.org/10.3390/W10070893

In-review : Cabrera, J.S., Lee, H.S., 2018b. Flood-prone Area Assessment using GIS-based Multi-Criteria
Analysis: A Case Study in Davao Oriental, Philippines. J. Hydro-environment Res.
Email: jonathan.Cabrera@doscst.edu.ph

October 22, 2018

19