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IntroductIon

4 PHASES OF DECISION-MAKING PROCESS


ACCORDING TO HEBERT SIMON

REAL WORLD/ INTELLIGENCE


ORGANIZATION PHASE

DESIGN
PHASE
SUCCESS

CHOICE
PHASE

IMPLEMENTATION
OF SOLUTION

FAILURE
THE CHOICE PHASE

A decision whether to abandon


ahead with the project.
THE CHOICE PHASE
• Decision-making process or phase
• End product of this phase is a decision
• Decision is made by selecting and
evaluating alternatives defined in
previous step
• If achievable—ready for the next
phase

BOUNDARY BETWEEN DESIGN AND CHOICE PHASE

• Choice Phase includes the search for,


evaluation of, and recommendation of an
appropriate solution to a model

• Solving a model is not solving the


problem the model represents.
• Solution to a model is considered a
recommended solution to a problem
• When the recommended solution is
successful, then the problem is
solved.
THE CHOICE PHASE
COURSE OF ACTION

• ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES (SOLVING A


FORMULA)
• Methods that use mathematical
formulas to derive an optimal
solution directly or to predict a
certain result, mainly in solving
structured problems

• ALGORITHMS (STEP-BY-STEP PROCEDURE)


• A step-by-step search in which
improvement is made at every step
until the best solution is found
THE CHOICE PHASE
COURSE OF ACTION

• HEURISTICS (RULE OF THUMB)


• Informal, judgmental knowledge of
an application area that
constitutes the rules of good
judgment in the field
• Encompasses the knowledge of how
to solve problems efficiently and
effectively, how to plan steps in
solving a complex problem, how to
improve performance, and so forth

• BLIND SEARCHES

• SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS—a study of


the effect of a change in one or
more input variables on a proposed
solution

• WHAT-IF ANALYSIS—a process that


END
REFERENCES
• http://www.just.edu.jo/~qabuein/courses/c
is430/chapter2.ppt

• https://unitfly.com/blog/Decision-Making-
Process