RUSY G. ABASTILLAS
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division
DOST-PAGASA
Philippine The nation’s
meteorological service
Atmospheric and public weather
service provider
Geophysical
Astronomical
Services
Administration
NETWORK OF OBSERVATIONS
58 Synoptic Stations
23 Agromet Stations
4 Radiosonde Stns.
5 Meteorological
Satellite Receiving
Facilities
10 Doppler radars
(2 years from now)
The Philippine Climate
…Characterized by humid equatorial
or tropical maritime
Type14Climate:
Type Climate:
Rainfall
Two more or seasons:
pronounced less evenly
dry from
distributed throughout the year.
November to April, wet during the rest
of the year.
Type
Type23Climate:
Climate: MM
oon nt h
t hl lyy RRaai innf faal lll oo ff P
Toa gr b
t iAl ar e
r aa n, M
C iat y
n ,i lBao h
( To y
l p( T
e y pI )e I V )
Baguio City No
Seasons
dry season
5 0 0 not very
withpronounced,
a pronounced
200
maximum
relatively dry
rainfall
fromfrom
November
November
to April
to
180
4 5 0
160
4 0 0
January.
and wet during the rest of the year.
3 5 0
140
120
Rainfall(mm)
)m 3 0 0 Moonnt thhl lyy RRa ai ni nf af al ll lo o
M f fT L
u eg g
u ae s
gpa ir aCoi ,t yC(aTgy.p (eT IyI )p e I I I )
m
(a2 5 0 100
ifl l 6 03 00 0
n
aR 80
2 0 0
60
15
5 002 0
5 0
40
1 0 0
4 02 00 0
20
) 50
m
(mm) m
lla3la l(05 0
01 0
fn fn
i 0 JAN FEB M A R APR M A Y JUN JUL A U G SEP O CT NO V D EC
i aR J A N F E B M A R A P R M A Y J U N J UM
L oAn U
t hG S E P O C T N O V D E C
aR Mo n t h
2 01 00 0
1 0 05 0
ClimateType
Climate TypeIIV
0 0
J A NJ F
AEN BF EMBA M
R A AR PARP RM A MY A Y
J UJNU NJ UJ LU LA U
AGU GS S
EEP P OOC CT T N NO OV V D DE EC C
Infanta =3967.3
ClCimlimataetTeyTpyepIeIIII
Hinatuan =4168.3 Gen San
Normal Temperature (Maximum, Minimum,Mean) of
Monthly Normal Rainfall of Baguio City (1971-2000)
Baguio City (1971-2000)
1000.0 30.0
900.0
800.0 25.0
Rainfall in mm
700.0
20.0
Rainfall inmm
600.0
500.0 15.0
400.0
10.0
300.0
200.0 5.0
100.0
0.0
0.0 JAN FEBMAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
20.5
20.0
Temp in °C
19.5
19.0
y = 0.0071x + 19.358
18.5
18.0
17.5
1983
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year
annual mean temp Linear (annual mean temp)
Climatic controls that influence the climate in the Philippines
• geography and topography – large hilly terrain, and coastalplains
• semi-permanent lows and highs – produces airstreams /ocean currents
• air streams
- southwesterlies (SW monsoon)- Apr-Sep
- northeasterlies (NE monsoon) –Oct- Mar
- easterlies (North Pacific trades) – transition period
• ocean currents = SST average 27.4C Phil. Sea • influenced by complex
• linear systems interactions
- ITCZ
• rainfall variability
- cold front
- easterly waves • threatened by ECEs
• tropical cyclones • various sectors affected
•Devastating impacts could be mitigated
• ENSO phenomenon through clear understanding of the
complex mechanisms and dev’t of
effective forecast tools.
Weather Causing Phenomena in the Philippines
NORTHEAST
MONSOON
(AMIHAN)
TROPICAL
CYCLONE
L
L L
L
SOUTHWEST INTERTROPICAL
MONSOON CONVERGENCE
(HABAGAT) ZONE (ITCZ)
ITCZ L ITCZ L
ITCZ
L ITCZ
L
semestral semestral
3.5
3.0
N o . of T ropical C y c l o n es
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Mo n t h
*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.
Climate Variability /ENSO
IMPACTS OF ENSO ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL
Legend:
Severe drought
impacts
Drought impacts
with major losses
Moderate drought
impacts
Near normal to
above normal
condition
Way above
normal condition
Potential for
flood damage
Severe flood
damage
Temperature
Rainfall
Tropical Cyclones
Observed Mean Annual Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines
Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)
Significant Significant
increase in the increase in the
frequency of frequency of
hot days warm nights
*Tibig, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extreme daily temperatures and 24-hr rainfall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA
Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines*
Period: 1961 – 2003
(Cool days). (Cold nights).
Significant Significant
decrease in decrease in
the number the number
of cold days of cool nights
*Tibig, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extreme daily temperatures and 24-hr rainfall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA
AnnualNumberTropical Cyclonesandfive-year runningmean
31
Frequency of tropical Cyclones
y =-0.0104x+19.755
26
21
16
11
1
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
Year
250
1971-00
1951-80
1961-90
200
51-80
Number
150
61-90
71-00
100
50
0
LUZON
Luzon VISAYAS
Visayas
MINDANAO
Mindanao
Mean Number of Tropical Cyclones during Normal, El Niño and La
Niña Years
12
10
TC Frequency
8
6
4
2
0
JFM (QTR1) AMJ (QTR 2) JAS(QTR3) OND(QTR4)
La Niña El Niño
Year Normal Years Years Years
JFM (QTR1) 1.21 1.24 0.38
AMJ (QTR 2) 3.29 2.87 2.38
JAS (QTR3) 9.91 8.86 8.85
OND (QTR4) 6.55 6.79 4.56
Total 20.96 19.76 16.17
Percentage of Annual Rainfall associated with
the passage of Tropical Cyclones (1951-2005)
% of Rainfall
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Station N a m e s
NAIA 429
PortArea 425
Science Garden 430
Sangley Point 428
Vigan 222
Tuguegaro 233
B aguio City 328
Dagupan 325
Iba, Z a m b a l e s 324
Cubi Pt,Subic 426
Am bulong 432
Calapan 431
Puerto Princes a 618
Cuyo 630
Coron 526
Itbayat 132
Bas co Synop 135
Calayan 133
Aparri 232
Cabanatuan 330
Casiguran 336
Alabat 435
Infanta 434
Romblon 536
Mas bate 543
Daet 440
Legaspi 444
Virac Synop 446
Virac R a d a r 447
Roxas City 538
Iloilo 637
Catarm an 546
Catbalogan 548
Tac loban City 550
Dumaguete 642
Mactan 646
Maas in 648
Surigao City 653
Hinatuan 755
Dipolog 741
Lumbia 747
Cagayan De Oro 748
Malaybalay 751
Davao 753
Zamboanga 836
1. Ondoy (Ketsana)
2. Pepeng (Parma)
P A R LINE
P
A
R
L
I
N
E
P
A
R
L
I
N
E
P A R LINE
On September 26, shortly before noon in (around 0400 UTC), Ketsana made its landfall
at the border of Aurora and Quezon provinces, packed with maximum winds of 85 km/h
near the center and gustiness of up to 100 km/h.
TS Ondoy brought the worst rainfall to Metro Manila among recorded typhoons since
the start of rainfall record keeping , producing only moderate winds but hours of
extremely heavy rains. Metro Manila experienced the highest rainfall in history that
brought heavy flooding.
PAGASA documented a record-high amount of rainfall in 24 hours at 455 mm
(17.9 in) recorded during September 26). And also, the amount of rainfall recorded
for six hours, which was 341.3 mm (13.44 in), was comparable to the 24 hour rainfall
in 1967.
300.0
200.0
24-
STATIONNAME 25 26 27
100.0
24
0.0 IBA 15.0 8.2 103.8 40.0
IBA SUBIC BAY SCIENCE TANAY PORTAREA 10.4 41.3 258.5 7.0
GARDEN SUBICBAY 6.0 50.4 127.7 55.0
SANGLEYPOINT 6.0 61.4 163.0 7.0
Station Name SCIENCEGARDEN 1.1 94.0 455.0 6.0
AMBULONG T 49.5 234.5 8.0
TANAY 0.0 141.4 331.8 13.0
24-hr RR vs Normal RR for Sept. 26, 2009 at Selected
Stations affected by TS "Ondoy"
Rainfall in mm
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
IBA PORT AREA SCIENCE SANGLEY AMBULONG
GARDEN POINT
Stations
2250
TOT_OCT1-10 NOR_OCT
2000
T
RRinmm.
1750
1500
Y
1250
1000
750
500
P 250
e
p
S t a t io n s
e
n S T AT I O N S TOT_OCT1-10 NOR_OCT Extreme Rainfall (24-hr) Highest Day
I T B A YA T 303.6 478.7 678.2 8-Jun-1981 106.1 6-Oct-09
g BASCO
VIGAN
LAOAG
281.3
1005.3
843.4
429.2
154.3
143.6
616.4
594.1
564.2
27-Oct-1991
18-Jul-1920
4-Sep-1913
95.0
417.3
402.6
7-Oct-09
4-Oct-09
4-Oct-09
APARRI 338.6 359.5 453.1 22-Nov-1973 154.5 3-Oct-09
TUGUEGARAO 508.5 324.4 349.7 22-Nov-1973 188.7 3-Oct-09
ECHAGUE 238.2 239.6 111.9 8-Oct-09
IB A 236.7 273.7 623.7 21-Sep-1935 99.8 3-Oct-09
DAGUPAN 759.7 200.6 722.6 27-May-2003 443.5 8-Oct-09
BSU 2169.2 290.2 761.8 8-Oct-09
BAGUIO 1876.5 461.8 1085.8 4-Jul-2001 685.0 8-Oct-09
MUÑOZ 302.1 201.7 208.0 8-Oct-09
CABANATUAN 267.5 207.3 406.1 28-Jul-1952 96.2 8-Oct-09
Daily RR at Selected
Stations in Luzon
(Oct. 1-10, 2009)