ANALYSE PHASE

1
 CONTENTS
S. No Topic Slide No.
1 Detailed Process Analysis 170-186
2 Organizing for causes 187-198
3 Analysis Roadmap & Graphical Analysis 199-246
4 Data based validation of causes 247-252
5 Correlation and Regression 253-262
6 Test of Hypothesis 263-306
7 Chi-Square Test 307-319
8 ANOVA 320-332
9 Concept of DOE 333-339
2
 IN THE ANALYSIS PHASE YOU WILL...

• Brainstorm on X’s
• Find change of which X’s affect Y and in what
manner
• Ultimately find which X’s are critical to move the
Y in the desired direction

IN MEASURE
IN MEASURE PHASE,
PHASE, WE
WE DEALT
DEALT WITH
WITH Y’s.
Y’s.
IN ANALYSIS
IN ANALYSIS PHASE,
PHASE, WE
WE WILL
WILLDISCOVER
DISCOVER
& DEAL
& DEALWITH
WITH X’s.
X’s.
3
 UNDERSTANDING A PROCESS
•To better understand
your process, you will:
– Create a flowchart of
your process.
– Identify which of
your process steps
are value-added and
which are nonvalue-
added.
– Determine cycle time and identify bottlenecks.
– Look for errors or inefficiencies that contribute to
defects.
4
 FLOWCHARTS
• Flowcharts are tools that make a process visible.

Start Step 1 Step 2 Step 3

Yes
Decision Step 6 End

No

Step 4 Step 5

5
 TYPES OF FLOWCHARTS USEFUL
FOR UNDERSTANDING PROCESS FLOW

– Activity flowcharts – Deployment flowcharts

Sales Technical Shipping Coordinator

6
 ACTIVITY FLOWCHARTS
Hotel Check-out Process Process Name

• Activity 2
1 YES

flowcharts are
3
Approach front desk Is there
Wait
a line?
Clear
direction of

specific about flow (top to

NO
Numbered 4
bottom or
steps Step up to desk left to right)

what happens in 5

a process. They NO
Clerk
available? 6
Wait
Key of symbols

often capture YES

7 Consistent
decision points, Start/End

Action/Task
Give room number
level of
detail

rework loops,
8
Check bill

Decision

complexity, etc. Sequence

9
Charges NO 10
correct? Correct charges

YES

11
Clear starting
Pay bill and ending
Date of creation points
or update &
name of creator

7
 DEPLOYMENT FLOWCHARTS
• Deployment People or groups
listed across the top Invoicing Process
flowcharts show the Sales Billing Shipping Customer Elapsed
Time
detailed steps in a Steps listed in 1 Time flows
process and which
Delivers goods
column of person or down the
group doing step or 2 8 page
people or groups are in charge Notifies sales of
completed delivery
Receives
delivery
5 days

involved in each step. 3

Sends invoice to
customer
9
Records receipt and
claims against this
delivery

• They are particularly 4

Notifies billing
10
Receives invoice
10 days

useful in processes that

of invoice

11
5 Checks invoice

involve the flow of Files invoice against receipt

12

information between Pays bill

people or functions, as
6
Receives and
records payment
Horizontal lines
they help highlight 7
Reviews weekly
report of overdue
clearly identify
handoffs
handoff areas. accounts

8
 WHICH FLOWCHARTING TECHNIQUE
SHOULD I USE?
Basic Activity Deployment
Flowchart Flowchart Flowchart
• To identify the major • To display the • To help highlight
steps of the process complexity and handoff areas in
and where it begins decision points of a processes between
and ends process people or functions

• To illustrate where in • To identify rework • To clarify roles and

the process you will loops and bottlenecks indicate dependencies
collect data

Which flowchart do you intend to use for your project?

9
 HOW TO CREATE FLOWCHARTS
•When creating a flowchart, work with a
group so you can get multiple viewpoints.
– Brainstorm action steps
• Write these on self-stick notes or on
a flipchart
• Make sure to include the steps that
occur when things go wrong
– Arrange the steps in sequence
• Be consistent in the direction of flow—
time should always flow from top to bottom, or from left to right
• Use appropriate flowchart symbols
– Check for missing steps or decision points
– Number the steps
10
 FOUR PERSPECTIVES
• Flowcharts can map four different perspectives on a
process:
– What you think the process is.
– What the process really is.
– What the process could be.
– What the process should be.
• At this stage of a DMAIC project, you are trying to
define the current situation, as it is. Therefore, your
flowchart(s) should map what is really happening in
the process.

11
 COPY PROCESS
Yes

Take Original Copier Yes Wait? No Leave

in Use?

No

Place No Glass Yes

Original Dirty? Clean

Select
Size
Select
Orientation
Select
Number Paper? No Find
Paper
Yes
Yes
Box No Knife? No Find Open
Open? Knife Box

Yes

Yes Paper No Find

Loaded? Help
Yes No
Start Copy Yes Quality No Stop Adjust?
Copier Made? Ok? Copier
Yes
No
Adjust Find
Help
Yes Another Fix No
Page? Problem?
No Yes

Remove Collect Staple Clear Leave

Original Copies copies modes

12
VALUE-ADDED AND NONVALUE-ADDED STEPS
•Value-Added Step:
– Customers are willing to pay for it.
– It physically changes the product.
– It’s done right the first time.
•Nonvalue-Added Step:
– Is not essential to produce output.
– Does not add value to the output.
– Includes:
• Defects, errors, omissions.
• Preparation/setup, control/inspection.
• Over-production, processing, inventory.
• Transporting, motion, waiting, delays.

13
 EXAMPLES
Value-Added Activities Nonvalue-Added Activities

• Entering order • Waiting

• Ordering materials • Storing
• Preparing drawing • Staging
• Assembling • Counting
• Legally mandated testing • Inspecting
• Packaging • Recording
• Shipping to customer • Obtaining Approvals
• Testing
• Reviewing
• Copying
• Filing
• Revising/Reworking
• Tracking
14
 FLOWCHART WITH WASTE HIGHLIGHTED
• You can turn Start

an activity 1.
Stop
9.
Adjust
settings
flowchart into packing line No

2. 5. Yes
an opportunity
6. 7. 8. 10.
Same Yes Change Adjust Run test Speed Adjust
product? length speed OK? stapler
cartons

flowchart by 3.
No
4.
4.
Yes
No 12. 11.
Staple
highlighting
Pick-up Timing Closed?
Clean
okay? test carton
appropriate
tools machine
Yes
the steps that 18. 13.
Load carton
Stop

add waste and line

No

complexity to Yes 17.

Right
product?
16.
Call
No 15.
Product?
14.
Refill
foil
filling
the process. Yes

19.
Start
production

Example: Changeover process

15
 OPPORTUNITY FLOWCHART
Steps that are essential
even when everything

• An works correctly move

down the left side.
Steps that would not be needed
if everything worked right the
first time move horizontally

opportunity across the right side.

Value-Added
flowchart is Yes
Nonvalue-Added

organized to Take Original

Copier
in Use?
Yes
Wait?
No
Leave

separate No

Yes

value-added Place
Original
No Glass
Dirty? Clean

steps from Select

Size

nonvalue- Select
Orientation

added steps. Select

No Box No No
Paper? Find Knife? Find Open
Number Paper Open? Knife Box

Yes Yes Yes

Yes Paper No Find

Loaded? Help

16
HOW TO CREATE AN OPPORTUNITY FLOWCHART
– Divide page into Value-Added Steps Nonvalue-Added Steps
two sections Loop
Yes
• Value-added section
smaller Yes

than cost-added- Loop

only section
No No

– Time flows down

the page
– Only join two Loop Yes

Value-Added steps No

with an arrow if
there are no
Nonvalue-Added
steps in between
17
 MEASURING CYCLE TIME
1.Decide whether you will 3. Develop consensus about
measure cycle time on the what is value-added and
entire process or on a subset of what is nonvalue-added
steps. time (if you haven’t done
so already).
2.Develop operational
definitions for the starting and 4. Develop a data collection
ending points of each step. form.
Cumulative
Process Step VA Time NVA Time Notes
Time

18
 VALUE ANALYSIS MATRIX
• You can track specific types of nonvalue-added time
with a value- analysis matrix. This helps clarify not
only the types of waste present in the process, but also
the percentage of overall process time each nonvalue-
added step adds.
Process Step 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total %Total
Time (Hours) 12 10 1 10 20 6 10 1 10 20 100 100%

Value-Added 2 2%

Nonvalue-added
Fixing errors 10 10%

Prep/Set-up

Control/Inspection 6 6%

Delay 52 52%

Transporting/Motion 30 30%

Total 100 100%

19
 Organizing for Potential Causes

– Understand the need to organize potential causes

visually

– Know when and how to construct a C&E diagram

– Know when and how to create and use a tree

diagram or an affinity diagram

20
•Graphic displays can help you structure possible
causes in order to find relationships that will shed
new light on your problem.
M eans
M e a n s / O b je c t iv e
M eans

M e a n s / O b je c t iv e
M eans
M e a n s / O b je c t iv e

• Problem
Statement
O b je c t iv e
M eans

M eans
M e a n s / O b je c t iv e
M eans

M e a n s / O b je c t iv e
M eans
M e a n s / O b je c t iv e
M eans

21
 Why Use Cause-and-Effect Diagrams
– To stimulate thinking during a brainstorm of potential causes
– To understand relationships between potential causes
– To track which potential causes have been investigated, and which proved to contribute
significantly to the problem

Use a Cause-and-Effect Diagram:

– When there is so large a number of potential causes that it is difficult to focus the
analysis.

– When there is a lack of clarity about the relationship between different potential causes.

22
 CAUSE AND EFFECT DIAGRAM
• To generate in a structured manner, maximum
number of ideas regarding possible causes for a
problem by using brainstorming technique.

HOW TO PREPARE CAUSE AND EFFECT DIAGRAM

 Clarify the problem
 Gather members for discussion
 Conduct Brainstorming session
 Group the causes
Man, Material, Machine, Method etc.
 Draw the cause and effect chart
 Check for missing information
 Determine importance of significance of causes
23
STRUCTURE OF A CAUSE AND EFFECT DIAGRAM

Man Machine

Problem
/ Effect

Material Method

Each of the main branches has many potential sub

branches that further subdivide the potential causes.
24
Cause and Effect Diagram for High Petrol Consumption
Procedure Driver Vehicle

Spark plugs
Impatience Heavy
Poor Bad Contacts
Craze Life
anticipation attitude
Body Technical
Wrong Poor details
skill Shape
Always gears Fuel mix
late Lack of Inexperience High H.P Carburetor
awareness Wrong
Riding on culture Engine
clutch
Cylinders High Petrol
Spurious Consumption
Crossings
Restrictions Spares Impurities
Traffic Incorrect
One way
No turn Tyres Inferior Octane no.
Frequent Faulty Petrol
Circuitous stops Negligence
Speed Breakers pressure Additives
Road
Ignorance
Potholes Irregular Incorrect viscosity
Low pressure
Poor servicing
Clogged
condition Oil
False filters
Steep economy Not changed
Low level
Road Maintenance Materials

25
 USES OF CAUSE AND EFFECT DIAGRAM
• To investigate and list down the cause and effect
relationship of problem under investigation.
• Analyze the problem to trace the real root cause.
• To help stratification for collection of further data
to confirm relationship.
• To help evolve counter-measure.

26
 CAUSE
CAUSE AND
AND EFFECT
EFFECT DIAGRAM
DIAGRAM
FROM
FROM MINITAB
MINITAB
 Open MINITAB Worksheet.

 For each category, put your potential causes in one

column.
 Choose STAT > QUALITY TOOLS > CAUSE-
AND-EFFECT
 In label type the category name. For each label, in
causes enter the column containing the causes.
 Enter the required Effect & Title.
27
 “The Five Whys” and Mile-Deep Thinking
Problem Problem Problem Problem Problem Problem Problem Problem Problem Problem Problem Problem Problem Etc.
A B C D E F G H I J K L M

Local focus
“Ask the question Why’ five times” on causes

Why?
1. Why did X happen?
Wider focus
Because of W. on causes

2. Why did W happen? Why?

Because of V. Wider focus
on causes

3. Why did V happen?

Why?
Because of U.
Wider focus
on causes

4. Why did U happen?

Because of T. Why?
Wider focus
on causes
5. Why did T happen?
Because of S.
Why?
Wider focus
on causes

28
 Tree Diagram Definition
•Another way to find structure in potential causes is to use a tree diagram, which is a tool used
to arrange related ideas in sequence from broad and general to narrow and specific.

Order Entry
RAW UNPLANNED USAGE
MATERIAL REJECTED @ LAB NO C OF A
SHORTAGE LONG APPROVAL TIME PRIORITIES NOT KNOWN
27%
PARTIAL SHIPMENTS ARRIVES IN BATCHES
LATE DELIVERIES
LATE ORDERING R.M. SHORTAGE
LONG MFG. TIME WAIT @ FILLING
GRINDER AVAILABILITY
ORDERS W/O
PROBLEMS INVENTORY ACCURACY WRONG QUANTITY
35% WRONG LOCATION

NOT SURE WE'LL GET AN ORDER

FORMULA NOT ON FILE ORDER BEFORE OR WITH APPROVAL

NEW FORMULA
CODE NOT
DISCONTINUED R.M. ORDERS ARRIVE IN BATCHES
ON FILE NEW CONTAINER SIZE
25% PURGED FORMULA
ORDER ENTRY
SWITCH FROM PURCH.
CYCLE TIME
TO PRODUCT
IS TOO LONG

DIDN'T KNOW DATA

WAS NEEDED

FORMULA ON FILE BUT NOT APPROVED

NOTIFICATION OF NEXT BATCH

PROBLEM W/PREVIOUS BATCH
ORDERS WITH USE ALTERNATE R.M.
PROBLEMS ALTERNATE FORMULA LEFT OVERS
FORMULA ON
65% “LOCK HOLD” USE SALVAGE MAT'L
1% CHANGE BATCH SIZE R.G.

29
 Causal Tree Diagram Features
Levels of Why are reflected
as you move out to the right.
Order Entry
RAW UNPLANNED USAGE
MATERIAL REJECTED @ LAB NO C OF A
SHORTAGE LONG APPROVAL TIME PRIORITIES NOT KNOWN
27%
PARTIAL SHIPMENTS ARRIVES IN BATCHES
LATE DELIVERIES
LATE ORDERING R.M. SHORTAGE

LONG MFG. TIME WAIT @ FILLING

GRINDER AVAILABILITY
ORDERS W/O
PROBLEMS INVENTORY ACCURACY WRONG QUANTITY
35% WRONG LOCATION

NOT SURE WE'LL GET AN ORDER

FORMULA NOT ON FILE ORDER BEFORE OR WITH APPROVAL

NEW FORMULA
CODE NOT
DISCONTINUED R.M. ORDERS ARRIVE IN BATCHES
ON FILE NEW CONTAINER SIZE
25% PURGED FORMULA
ORDER ENTRY
SWITCH FROM PURCH.
CYCLE TIME
TO PRODUCT
IS TOO LONG
Most specific
DIDN'T KNOW DATA
WAS NEEDED
Lines connect causes appear to
related series of the far right
Problem
causes
appears at far
left with the FORMULA ON FILE BUT NOT APPROVED

potential NOTIFICATION OF NEXT BATCH

causes PROBLEM W/PREVIOUS BATCH
branching ORDERS WITH
USE ALTERNATE R.M.
ALTERNATE FORMULA
out to the PROBLEMS FORMULA ON
USE SALVAGE MAT'L
LEFT OVERS
65% “LOCK HOLD”
right. 1% CHANGE BATCH SIZE R.G.
30
 Identifying Potential Causes: Review
– Start with a narrow problem definition
– List potential root causes
– Organize potential causes using a cause-and-effect
diagram, tree diagram, or affinity diagram
– Visual displays can be a powerful communication tool
– Now it is time to revisit and finalize the focused
problem statement.
– None of these causes has been verified; cause
verification is the next step in the DMAIC cycle

31
 Validation
Validation of
of Causes
Causes

 GEMBA (Work Place) Investigation

 List each cause and verify them through workplace

observations.

Causes Specifications/ Desired Observations Remarks

states
Bunching Maximum 2 at a 6 out of 10 May be a potential
of car time moments root cause for
Delay in servicing

32
 Analysis
Roadmap
Variable Attribute
Non-Normal Normal Chi squared

Variances Medians Variances Means Correlation

Test of equal Correlation Chi squared t-Tests

variance
Sign test F-test 1-sample
Wilcoxon 2-sample
Test of equal
Mann- variance ANOVA
Whitney
One way
Kurskal-Wallis
Two way
Mood’s
Correlation
Friedman
Regression
33
 Phases

Initial study of the effects of controlled,

uncontrolled (noise), and material input
variables on the output variable
– Focus on characterizing the effect of major
uncontrolled (noise) variables in the
system
– Initial relationships between controlled
inputs and outputs
34
 Root Cause Analysis --Introduction
What is it?
• A framework for determining possible causes of variation (families of variation)
in your output variables and depicting the results of your analysis
• A powerful tool that can assist in finding the root cause of variation

What is a family of variation?

• A possible cause of the variation seen in your variable(s)--typically depicted as a
node on a solution tree
• Note: Families of variation are not variables

Who prepares a Analysis tree?

• Typically, a project team’s entire membership should be used to determine
possible causes of variation

What are the pitfalls?

• Everyone not being “on the same page”; bias in causes

What is the premise?

• For every effect there is a principal cause or root cause

35
 Example
Problem Statement: Current process does not meet
customer on-time delivery of 5 days +/-1 day

Measurement
Process
variation ∆P ∆M variation

Gage R&R

Customer Plant Season Method of Shipment Other

to to to Shipment to
Customer Plant Season ANOVA: p=.43 Shipment
ANOVA: p=.54
ANOVA: p=.93 ANOVA: p=.08TEV: p=1.00 ANOVA: p=.38
TEV: p=.79 TEV: p=1.00
TEV: p=1.00 TEV: p=1.00
Day of
Week to ROOT CAUSE
ANOVA: p=.000
Day of TEV: p=.000
Week

M T W R F Sa Su 36
Root Cause Analysis --Make Your Case

When asked what would be the purpose of writing a

Declaration of Independence:

“To place before mankind the common sense of the

subject in terms so plain and firm as to command
their assent.”

Thomas Jefferson

1776

AAgood
good root
root cause
causeanalysis
analysismakes
makesyour
yourlogic
logicso
soclear
clearas
asto
toensure
ensureits
its
support
supportfor
forthe
thesolution
solution

37
 Root Cause Analysis -Tips
• Each project must recognize its own particular families of variation
• You CAN leverage work that’s already been done
• You should NOT copy other work blindly

• All families of variation should appear on the same Analysis tree level
• Operator to operator would not appear under time to time

• Families of variation are not variables

• Variables typically appear under families of variation

• Progress down the solution tree one layer at at time

• No need to show “children” for every family
• Some families don’t contribute much to the problem

• Structure of your data and the data collection from the process itself

• Time to time is, to some extent, present in every project

38
 Root Cause Analysis -Summary
• Try to leverage the entire team to identify sources of variation

• The GB/BB should try to ensure the team remains focused on

mutually-agreed causes of variation; remember: the process CAN be
dynamic

• Analysis tree can be used to graphically depict the process used to

perform analysis

• Analysis tree should be used to depict the root cause

AApicture…is
picture…isworth
worthaa1000
1000words
words
39
 Selecting Variables

● Baseline Process - What is the

Y’s
current state of our process?
Output
Data

● Identify Which Input/Process

X’s Variable Influences the Process
Input
Variables
Output

How Do We Determine Which are the “Right”

X’s and Y’s To Study?
40
 Analysis Tree
We have a partial list of the X’s and Y’s to be studied
based on the Process Map, Cause & Effect Matrix, and
FMEA

An Analysis Tree is a useful way to visualize (X’s) & (Y’s)

Output (Y)
Damaged
Shipment

Product Packing Ship From

Personnel Carrier
Type Material Location

A B 1 2 3 X Y Z N P B H B

1 2 3

Variables (X’s)
41
 Examples
Tools
Tools • Different Operators Tools
Tools •• Boxplots
•• C&E • Different Machines Boxplots
C&EMatrix
Matrix •• Main
•• FMEA • Different Shifts MainEffects
Effectsand
and
FMEA Interaction Plots
Interaction Plots
•• Fishbone •• Multi
Fishbone Noise
NoiseInputs
Inputs MultiVari
VariChart
Chart
•• Tree
TreeDiagram
Diagram
(Discrete)
(Discrete)

Controlled
Controlled
Inputs
Inputs Process
Process
CTC/CTB
CTC/CTB

Examples
• Temperature Noise
NoiseInputs
Inputs
• Pressure
(Continuous)
(Continuous)
• Time
Examples
Tools
Tools • Room Temperature
•• Scatterplots
Scatterplots • Barometric Pressure
•• Correlation/Matrix
Correlation/MatrixPlot
Plot • Relative Humidity
• Raw Material Characteristics
42
 Data Analysis
• Explore relationships among the variables
• Partition the total variability (by statement / variance
component analysis)
• Handle noisy data appropriately
• Questions to be answered:
– Is the process stable?
– Is the process capable of meeting specifications?
– What are the major sources of variation (noise, etc)?

Listen
Listen to
to what
what the
the data
data is
is saying
saying
43
 Exploratory Data Analysis
Explore relationships among the variables with graphical
and statistical tools
• Attribute X Variables with continuous Y’s
• Boxplots
• Main Effects Plots
• Interaction Plots
• Descriptive Stats with the “By” Statement
• T-tests comparing two groups
• Oneway and Factorial ANOVA’s
• Continuous X and Y Variables
• Scatterplots
• Correlation
• Regression
• Multiple Regression

44
 Exercise--Box Plot

Box Plot Purpose:

___________________________

45
Exercise--Box Plot Examples (day, shift, time)
0.06 0.06

0.05 0.05

0.04 0.04
Impurity

Impurity
0.03 0.03

0.02 0.02

0.01 0.01

0.00 0.00

1 2 1 2
Day Shift

0.06

0.05

0.04
Impurity

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.00

1 2 3 4
Time

46
 Exercise--Main Effects Plot
Main Effects Plot Purpose:
____________________

47
 Main Effects Plot - Data Means for Impurity

Exercise--Main Effects Plot

Day Shift Time
0.038

0.033
Impurity

0.028

0.023

0.018

1 2 1 2 1 2 3 4

Evidence
Evidenceof
of aastrong
strongShift
Shift to
to Shift
Shift Effect
Effect

48
Data analysis should be:

• Supported by data
• Shown in graphical and statistical format
• Not based on conjecture or intuition
• Make sense from an engineering standpoint

Data
Data and
and Hard
Hard Evidence!!
Evidence!!
49
 Noise Variables
• We can classify Noise Variables into three main families of variation:
– Positional - Differences in variation due to similar processes across a production
line
• Reactor-to-reactor differences
• Line-to-line differences
• Press to Press differences
• Production location to location differences
• Operator-to-Operator differences
– Temporal - Differences in variation of a process over time
• Shift-to-Shift
• Day-to-Day
• Week-to-Week
– Sequential - Differences across a series of processes
• If the output variable is affected by several different processes, we test
Process-to-Process variability

50
• For Continuous Processes
– Test for Variability within a time span
• Example: Four Measurements per Shift
– Test for Variability across short time spans
• Example: Variability across shifts
– Test for Variability across longer lead times
• Example: Variability across days, weeks and/or months
• For Discrete Processes
– Test for Variability within a piece
• Example: Four measurements per oven cavity
– Test for Variability within a batch
• Example: Variability across cavities within a batch
– Test for Variability across batches
• Example: Variability across batches within a month

51
 Positional Noise Tree

Plant 1 … and any other plants making this

product

Molder 1 Molder 2 Molder 3

Line/Outlet 1 Line/Outlet 2 … and other lines

Mold/Position 1 Mold/Position 2 Mold/Position 3

… and other molds

52
 Material Noise Tree
Supplier A … and other suppliers

Lot/Batch 1 Lot/Batch 2 Lot/Batch 3

Part/Spool 1 Part/Spool 2 Part/Spool 3

Location 1 Location 2 Location 3 … and other locations

within a part

Measurement 1 Measurement 2

… and other measurements within a location

53
 Temporal Noise Tree
Year 1

Month 1 Month 2 Month 3

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 … and other days within

weeks

Shift 1 Shift 2

Hour 1 Hour 4 … and other hours within Shift

54
 Variables for Study - Example 1

Missed Delivery
Deadlines

Week to Part to Part Order Taker To Vendor to Customer to

Week Order Taker Vendor Customer

•Which variables are from the map and C&E?

•Which ones are noise variables?
 Variables for Study - Example 2

Incorrect
Quote

Section To Specialist to Customer To Form A or Region To

Section Specialist Customer Form B Region

• Which variables are from the map and C&E?

• Which ones are noise variables?
 Exercise
 List Process Inputs and Outputs (directly from your Process Map)
 For each: Determine Measurement System

Inputs
Inputs Measurement
MeasurementSystem
System
Controllable

Noise

Outputs
Outputs Measurement
MeasurementSystem
System

57
Selecting Variables for Study - Summary

• Rely on process map, C&E, FMEA for

starting list of variables
• Consider potential noise variables the team
may have missed
• Think about measurement systems for both
the X and Y variables

58
 Further Data Analysis
– Know how to use stratification to identify potential
causes
– Be able to construct and interpret scatter diagrams
– Know how to interpret a multi-vari analysis
– Be able to use a multi-vari analysis to gather
information on potential causes

59
 Using Stratified Frequency Plots
•When one variable has continuous data and another has attribute
or discrete data, the best option for analyzing results is the
stratified frequency plot.
– Gather continuous data for each of the attribute types or
categories
• For example, collect data on number of defects for each
of four different types of customized orders
– Create a frequency plot for each category
• Use the same numeric scale and plot size for each plot
so you can easily compare multiple plots
– Look for patterns

60
 Discrete X and Continuous Y
•Theory: Variation in Location A
6

training, technique, and

4

procedures at different 2

locations accounts for All locations combined

0
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

much of the variation in 6

Location B
6
how long it takes to
5

complete oil
3

4
Count
2

change/lubes
1

3
0
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

•Data: Measure the time 1

6

5
Location C

needed to complete lube 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

4

job at different locations

3

Minutes 2

0
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

61
 Continuous X and Discrete Y
•Theory: The more
time spent with a
customer, the more
likely we will make
Made the Sale
a sale
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 >60
•Data: Measure Time With Customer
time spent with (in minutes)

customer and
separate your
results into two
categories (Made Did Not Make
the Sale
the Sale vs. Did
Not Make the Sale) 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 >60
Time With Customer
(in minutes)

62
 Scatter Plots Definition

Scatter Plot of
Time Time Needed toAssemble the Product vs.
•A scatter plot is a (mins) Workers’ Time on the Job

graph that helps you

10

9
visualize the 8

relationship between 7

two variables. It can be 6

used to check whether 5 2

2 2
one variable is related 4 Product A
Product B
to another variable and 3

is an effective way to 2
2
communicate the 1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 >12

relationship you find. Months on job

63
 Why & When to Use Scatter Plots

– To study and identify possible relationships between the

changes observed in two different sets of variables

– To understand the relationships between variables

– To discover whether two variables are related

– To find out if changes in one variable are associated with

changes in the other

– To test for a cause-and-effect relationship; but finding

such an apparent relationship does not necessarily imply
causation. Even strong correlations do not imply causation.

64
 Scatter Plot Features
Each data point
represents a pair of
measurements Scatter Plot of
(e.g., 8 hours after 2 Time Needed toAssemble the Product vs.
Time
months on the job) Workers’ Time on the Job
(mins)
10
Stratification
9 using different
symbols allows
8 you to look at
multiple patterns
Time to Assemble

7
at once.
(Hours)

5 2 2
2
4 Product A
Product B
3

2
2 The pattern
1
formed by the
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 >12
scatter is an
Two variables are Months on job important clue to
represented. Often how the two
the effect is on the variables are
vertical axis and Both axes are related.
the potential roughly equal in
cause is on the length so the plot
horizontal axis. is square.
65
 Interpreting a Scatter Plot

•1. Look for outliers

O
u
t
l
ie
rs

•2. Interpret the pattern formed by the scatter of

the data points.

66
 Scatter Plot Patterns

Strong Positive Strong Negative

Correlation Correlation

Possible Positive Possible Negative

Correlation Correlation

No Correlation Other Pattern

AD-079

67
 Causation and Correlation

• No correlation Original data

does not mean there

is no causation.
There may be
relationships over a

}
wider range of data,
or a different portion
of the range.

Yield

AD-079

Temperature 68
 Stratifying Scatter Plots
•Potential Cause: Differences in raw materials
from different suppliers might cause viscosity
problems in products.
P
roduct A P
rod
uctB
Viscosity

Viscosity
Supplier A Supplier A
Supplier B Supplier B

AD-079
Impurity AD-079
Impurity

69
 Multi-Vari Chart

– Multi-vari analysis can help you narrow a list of potential

causes to a much smaller list suitable for detailed
investigation, through designed experiments, for example.
It helps you focus your attention as you funnel down to
find potential variables that you may need to study.

– Multi-vari analysis should be used in the Analyze step to

complement process analysis and stratification. It usually
follows stratification analysis.

70
 Families (Components)
of Variation
•Typical families of variation in a manufacturing environment can be
clustered together:
•Unit families:
– Within-Unit variation: different measurements or results at different
points within the unit or product
– Unit-to-Unit: one unit to the next (within sub-group variation)
– Sub-group to sub-group
– Stream-to-stream: supplier-to-supplier, line-to-line, machine-to-
machine, tool-to-tool, operator-to-operator, etc.

71
Minitab Follow Along, Part 1: Mechanics of a
Multi-Vari Analysis
•Open file :ProcEx\Multi_mod\PAINTLIN.MTW
•The variables are:
– Panel ID: sequential number of the panel sampled from each paint line
– Line: which paint line
– Date: day panels were sampled
– AM/PM: morning or afternoon when panels were sampled
– FilmThick: response variable (in inches, nominal 0.04)
– Position: side of the panel sampled, as it emerges from the paint booth
– Sample: sequential number of the panel (sub-groups of size 3)
•Product characteristic: Paint film thickness on a rectangular panel, front
and back side.

72
 Families of Variation
•In this example, there are four potential families
of variation we can examine:
1. Unit-to-unit variation (3 consecutive panels
sampled each time), which matches short-term
variation
2. Morning-to-afternoon variation
3. Day-to-Day variation Family 2: Family 1: Number of
Family 4: Family 3:
4. Line-to-Line
Lines variation AM/PM
Days Units Measurements

Levels 2 × 2 × 2 × 3 = 24

73
 Create a Multi-Vari Chart Using Minitab
Commands
Stat > Quality Tools> Multi-Vari Chart

Single response

Order of entry matters in

this window. To arrange
the plot in “standard”
form, assign family 1
(panel to panel variation)
to factor 1, the next larger
time family to factor 2,
the next larger time
family to factor 3.
Reserve factor 4 for a
stream family like line.
74
 Create a Multi-Vari Chart Using Minitab
Commands, cont.
Ctrl-E or Stat > Quality Tools> Multi-Vari Chart >
Options

•In this example, all boxes

should be unchecked to
produce the first chart

75
 Chart Appearance
Multi-Vari Chart for FilmThickness
Factor 1: Sample; Factor 2: AM/PM; Factor 3: Date; Factor 4: Line

Line Sample
AM

PM

AM

PM
1
2
0.045 3

1
0.035

0.055

0.045
Minitab plots the
2
three samples in
0.035
sequence left to
right for line 1,
4/18/99 AM. The
4/18/99 4/19/99
square shows the
Date
The diamond is the average of average of these
all the readings within one day three reading.
and line. 76
 Showing Changes in Average on the Multi-
Vari Chart

•Crtl-E or Stat > Quality Tools > Multi-Vari

Charts…
•In the options window, connect the means for factors 1–3.
Some people find it easier to see the relative contribution of
the different families when the means are connected.

77
 Multi-Vari Chart for Film Thickness

Factor 1: Sample; Factor 2: AM/PM; Factor

3: Date; Factor 4: Line
Line Sample

AM

PM

PM
AM
1

2
0.045 3

1
0.035

0.055

0.045

2
0.035

4/18/99 4/19/99
Date
The vertical change in the lines connecting mean symbols shows the average
contribution of the factor to the observed variation.
The largest vertical change matches the dashed lines connecting the squares (the
AM-to-PM variation). The smallest vertical change matches the dotted line
connecting the diamonds (the day-to-day variation).
78
 Summary
•Multi-vari analysis is a method that helps you
decompose total variation into component families.
By means of a multi-vari graph, you seek to match
patterns in the variation with potential causes.

•You use the method to narrow down potential

causes and find clues as you build a useful causal
theory.

79
 Data Based validation of Causes
CTQ(y) Cause(x) Question to Type of
Type Type Answer Analysis
Single Discrete in Do bearing have any effect on 2 Variance test
Continuous Two categories Variation in Noise? (F-test)
(Noise) (Bearing-1 & 2)
Single Discrete in two Do bearing have any effect on
Continuous categories 2-sample t-test.
Noise level?
(Noise) (Bearing-1& 2)
Single Discrete in more Do machine have any effect Analysis of Variance/
Continuous than two categories on Cycle time? Analysis of Means
(Cycle time) (Machine-1,2& 3)

Single Discrete in more Do machine have any effect Bartlett’s test for
Continuous than two categories on variation in Cycle time? equal variances.
(Cycle time) (Machine-1,2& 3)

Single Discrete in two Do time have any effect on 2-proportions test

Discrete categories defectives?
(defectives) (Month -1& 2)
Single Discrete in more Do type of jobs have any effect χ 2 test (Chi- square
Discrete than two/more on error level?
(Error/defect) categories test)
(Type of jobs)
80
 Data Based validation of Causes (Contd.)
CTQ(y) Cause(x) Question to Type of
Type Type Answer Analysis
Single Single continuous Do time taken in process step 1 Simple correlation and
Continuous (Time taken in Influence the cycle time? Regression analysis.
(Cycle time) Process step 1)
Single Multiple continuous Which process steps Multiple
Continuous (Time taken in Influence the cycle time Regression analysis.
(Cycle time) Process steps 1,2&3) maximum?
Single Single continuous Does the machine speed Logistic
Discrete (machine speed). influence defectives? Regression
(defectives)
Single Single continuous Does the machine speed Multiple Logistic
Discrete (machine speed). influence defectives? Regression
(defectives)
Single Discrete in two Does the machine speed Paired t-test
Continuous categories influence noise level?
On same (machine speed).
Subject
(Noise level at
Two different
speed)

81
 Scenario #1
A Supervisor wants to know if two operators add
significantly different amounts of Material A during the blending process

What’s the Y ? _____________ Type of Data ? ______________

What’s the X ? _____________ Type of Data ? ______________

What type of tool would you use ? ________________________

82
 Scenario #2
The Personnel Department wants to see if there is a link between age
(old and young) and whether that person gets hired

What’s the Y ? _____________ Type of Data ? ______________

What’s the X ? _____________ Type of Data ? ______________

What type of tool would you use ? ________________________

83
 Scenario #3
A team wants to see if there is relationship between
ambient temperature and the viscosity of a material

What’s the Y ? _____________ Type of Data ? ______________

What’s the X ? _____________ Type of Data ? ______________

What type of tool would you use ? ________________________

84
 Scenario #4
For accident analysis, safety dept. wants to see if there is a link
between unit weight per container and injuries to consumers

What’s the Y ? _____________ Type of Data ? ______________

What’s the X ? _____________ Type of Data ? ______________

What type of tool would you use ? ________________________

85
 CORRELATION
 If two variables X and Y, are related such that as
Y increases / decreases with another variable X, a
correlation is said to exist between them.

 A scatter diagram is a chart that pictorially depicts

the relationship between two such data types.
Some Examples of Relationship
• Cutting speed and tool life
• Moisture content and thread elongation
• Breakdown and equipment age
• Temperature and lipstick hardness
• Striking pressure and electrical current
• Temperature and percent foam in soft drinks
86
Scatter Diagram of Automotive Speed vs. Mileage
40

35
Mileage (km/Lit)

30

25

20

15
25 35 45 55 65 75
Speed (km /h)

87
 SCATTER DIAGRAM
• A scatter diagram depicts the relationship as a
pattern that can be directly read.
• If Y increases with X, then X and Y are positively
correlated.
• If Y decreases as X increases, then the two types of
data are negatively correlated.
• If no significant relationship is apparent between X
and Y, then the two data types are not correlated.

88
DIFFERENT SCATTER DIAGRAM PATTERNS

89
DATA ON CONVEYOR SPEED AND SEVERED LENGTH
Sl. No. Conveyor Severed Sl. No. Conveyor Severed
Speed Length Speed Length
(cm/sec) (mm) (cm/sec) (mm)
1 8.1 1046 16 6.7 1024
2 7.7 1030 17 8.2 1034
3 7.4 1039 18 8.1 1036
4 5.8 1027 19 6.6 1023
5 7.6 1028 20 6.5 1011
6 6.8 1025 21 8.5 1030
7 7.9 1035 22 7.4 1014
8 6.3 1015 23 7.2 1030
9 7.0 1038 24 5.6 1016
10 8.0 1036 25 6.3 1020
11 8.0 1026 26 8.0 1040
12 8.0 1041 27 5.5 1013
13 7.2 1029 28 6.9 1025
14 6.0 1010 29 7.0 1020
15 6.3 1020 30 7.5 1022
90
Scatter Diagram for Conveyor Speed and Severed Length

1050
1045
1040
1035
Severed Length (mm)

1030
1025
1020
1015
1010
1005
1000
5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9
Conveyor Speed (cm/sec)

91
 USES OF SCATTER DIAGRAM
 If an increase in Y depends on increase in X, then,
if X is controlled, Y will be naturally controlled.

 If X is increased, Y will increase somewhat. Then

Y seems to have causes other than X.

92
 REGRESSION
 Regression is the prediction of dependent variable
from knowledge of one or more other independent
variables.
 Regression Analysis is a statistical technique for
estimating the parameters of an equation relating
a particular value of dependent variable to a set of
independent variables. The resulting equation is
called Regression Equation.
 Linear regression is the regression in which the
relationship is linear.
 Curvilinear regression is the regression in which
the best fitting line is a curve.
93
 SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION
 Only a single predictor variable or independent
variable ‘X’ (e.g.: cutting speed) and a response
variable or dependent variable ‘Y’ (e.g: tool life).
The regression equation is
∧
Y = a+b X
∧
where, Y = Predicted value of Y
a = Intercept (the predicted value of Y when X = 0)
b = Slope of the line (the amount of difference in Y
associated with a 1 - unit difference in X)

94
 SIMPLE
SIMPLE LINEAR
LINEAR REGRESSION
REGRESSION
FROM
FROM MINITAB
MINITAB
 Open MINITAB Worksheet and collect 30 to 50 pairs of data.
 Choose STAT > REGRESSION > FITTED LINE PLOT
 In Response, enter the column containing it and in Predictors,
enter the corresponding column.
 Click OK.
 R2 or R-sq(adj) or Coefficient of Determination
= SS Regression/SS Total = 1 - (SS Error / SS
Total)

95
 H o
: µ o
= x

H a
: µ o
< x

Hypotheses of
σ
Hypotheses of
H o
: A
= σ Means
Means
B

H a
: σ A
> σ B
Hypotheses of
Hypotheses
Standard of
Standard
Deviations
Deviations

Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

96
 Objectives
●
● Review
Review the
thebasic
basicconcepts
conceptsof
of
hypothesis
hypothesis testing
testing
???
●● Link
Linkhypothesis
hypothesistesting
testing to
to upcoming
upcoming
topics
topics

E=MC2

97
 April 15th, 1997

Washington,
Washington,DC
DC --(AP)
(AP)

Global
Globalwarming
warmingcontinues
continuesto
toincrease
increaseatat alarming
alarming
rates.
rates. The
TheEPA
EPAcontinues
continuesto
todevelop
developplans
planstotocurb
curb
C0
C022output
outputat
atall
allU.S.
U.S.manufacturing
manufacturingfacilities…….
facilities…….
Avg Change In Temp

CO2 Output

1960s 70s 80s 1960s 70s 80s

98
The
Thedemand
demandfor
forcertainty
certaintyis
isone
onewhich
whichisisnatural
naturaltoto
mankind,
mankind,but
butis
isnevertheless
neverthelessan anintellectual
intellectualvice.
vice.

But
Butso solong
longas
asmen
menare
arenot
nottrained
trainedtoto
withhold
withholdjudgment
judgmentininthe
theabsence
absenceofofevidence,
evidence,they
they
will
willbe
beled
ledastray
astray...
...

...
...To
Toendure
endureuncertainty
uncertaintyisisdifficult,
difficult,but
butso
soare
aremost
mostof
of
the
theother
othergreat
greatvirtues.
virtues.
--Bertrand
BertrandRussell
Russell

99
Hypothesis Testing Concepts
Allow Us To ….

•• Properly
Properly handle
handle uncertainty
uncertainty
•• Minimize
Minimizesubjectivity
subjectivity
•• Question
Question assumptions
assumptions
•• Prevent
Prevent the
theomission
omissionof
ofimportant
important
information
information
•• Manage
Managethe
the risk
riskof
of decision
decisionerrors
errors

100
 Hypothesis Testing
 We want to take a practical problem and change it to a statistical problem
 We use relatively small samples to estimate population parameters
 There is always a chance that we can select a “weird” sample
 Sample may not represent a “typical” set of observations
 Inferential statistics allows us to estimate the probability of getting a “weird”
sample
 Example
 If we wanted to know a coin was “fair”, we could flip it a number of times
and track how many heads we saw
 By chance we would expect about 50% of the flips to be heads
 If we flipped the coin 10 times and got 10 heads, we would be fairly
confident the coin is not fair
 There is one chance out of 1000 that we could have gotten 10 heads with
a fair coin
 Therefore, we would say we are willing to take a 0.1% chance of being
wrong about our “unfair” coin

101
 In the Real World
• We can catch a good process on a bad day
• We can catch a bad process on a good day
• In either case, we can make the wrong inference
Yield

Study One Study Two

We say we made an improvement in the process, but

the results were just a function of sampling

102
 Should
I Chart We
for Avg Take
Chng Action Here ?
1
36
Individual Value

3.0SL=33.81

31
X=30.37

-3.0SL=26.93
26
0 5 10 15 20 25
Observation Number
45

DOT SIZE
40

35

5 6 7 8
LINE
103
 Overall Approach

Practical
Practical Problem
Problem Statistical
Statistical Problem
Problem

y = f ( x1 , x2 ,..., xk )

Practical
Practical Solution
Solution Statistical
Statistical Solution
Solution

104
 Statistical
Statisticalthinking
thinkingwill
willone
oneday
daybebeasasnecessary
necessaryfor
for
efficient
efficientcitizenship
citizenshipas
asis
isthe
theability
abilityto
toread
readand
andwrite.
write.

H.G.
H.G.Wells
Wells Circa
Circa1925
1925

Key Terms
Ho = Null Hypothesis ,Ha = Alternative
Hypothesis ,P-Value = Probability Value

105
Hypothesis Testing

• Real Life Hypothesis: The • Statistical Hypothesis: There

newly modified machine will is no difference between the
reduce defects. old machines and the
• This is called the Alternative improved one.
Hypothesis (Ha) • This is called the Null
Hypothesis (Ho)
Ho: µ=µ
µ≠
µ
a b
Ha: a b

We must show that the values we observed were so unlikely to come

from the same process, that Ho must be wrong.

106
 Hypothesis Testing
What is it for Statisticians ?
Ho: Mean Group A = Mean Group B
Ha: Mean Group A = Mean Group B

Ho: Slope of the line is 0

Ha: Slope of the line is not 0

Ho: Variance Group A = Variance Group B

Ha: Variance Group A = Variance Group B

Ho: Variable X is independent of Variable Y

Ha: Variable X is not independent of Variable Y 107
 Hypothesis Testing
What is it for the Average Person ?
Ho: Age doesn’t matter in a company’s hiring practices
Ha: Age does matter in a company’s hiring practices

Ho: Data is Normal

Ha: Data is not Normal

Ho: Batch X Avg. Cycle Time = Batch Y Avg. Cycle Time

Ha: Batch X Avg. Cycle Time = Batch Y Avg. Cycle Time

Ho = _______________________________________
Ha = _______________________________________ 108
 Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing
• Based on what we know, we form a hypothesis to
explain something that we don’t know
• Generally, this hypothesis takes the form of:
Y=f(x1,x2...xn)
• We devise a test to prove the hypothesis true or false
by testing the effect of the x’s on Y
• We assume that the null hypothesis is true
• We then look for compelling evidence to support or
fail to accept that hypothesis
• If we fail to accept the null hypothesis, then we accept
the alternative hypothesis

109
 Hypothesis and Decision Risk

• When accepting or rejecting a hypothesis, we do so

with a known degree of risk and confidence
• To do so, we specify in advance of the investigation
the magnitude of decision risk and test sensitivity
which is acceptable
• Once this has been accomplished, we have the
information necessary to determine an ideal sample
size
• We must then consider the practical limitations of
cost, time and available resources in order to arrive at
a rational sampling plan

110
 What is “Hypothesis Testing”?
State
Stateaa“Null
“NullHypothesis”
Hypothesis”(H
(Hoo)) Hypotheses of
Hypotheses
Means
Means
of
Ho:µ o = 13.6
Ha:µ o < 13.6

Hypotheses of
Hypotheses
Standard of
Ho: σ A =σ B
Standard
Deviations
Deviations Ha: σ A >σ B
Gather
Gatherevidence
evidence(a
(asample
sampleof
ofreality)
reality)

DECIDE:
DECIDE:
What
Whatdoes
doesthe
theevidence
evidencesuggest?
suggest?
Reject
RejectHHoo?? or
or Not
NotReject
RejectHHoo??

111
 About the Null Hypothesis...

● The Null Hypothesis (Ho) is assumed to be true

● This is like the defendant being presumed to be “Not
Guilty”
➫ Remember: The American justice system is NOT
based on “guilty until proven innocent”
➫ We don’t assume that our experiment has an effect
until the probability of “no effect” is too small to
believe
● You are the prosecuting attorney - you must provide
evidence beyond a “reasonable doubt”
NOTE:
Not Guilty Innocent
112
 Decision
In deciding to Reject Errors
or Not, we could make one of
two decision errors

Your
Your Decision
Decision

Accept Ho Reject Ho

Type I
Correct
Correct Error
Ho True
The ( α -Risk)
The
Truth
Truth Type II
Error Correct
Correct
Ho False
(β -Risk)

113
 Example: A Trial

Jury’s
Jury’sDecision
Decision
He’s Not Guilty He’s Guilty Consequence:
Innocent Man
Actually Type I Goes to Jail
Innocent Correct
Correct Error

The ( α -Risk)
The
Truth
Truth Type II
Error Correct
Correct
Actually
Guilty (β -Risk)

Consequence: Criminal goes Free

114
 Example: Airport Security
Alarm’s
Alarm’sDecision
Decision
Nothing In Bag Bad Stuff In Bag Consequences:
_____________
Nothing In Bag Type I _____________
Customer held
Correct
Correct Error up at security

The
The ( α -Risk)
Truth
Truth
Type II
Error Correct
Correct
Bad Stuff In Bag
(β -Risk)

Consequences: Weapon on plane

_____________

115
 Stating Problems as Hypotheses
Problem with Centering

Current
Desired
Situation
Precise but not Accurate
Precise but not Accurate

LSL T USL
LSL T USL

δ
Problem with Spread

Desired Current
Accurate but not Precise
Accurate but not Precise
Situation

LSL
LSL
T
T
USL
USL
Hypotheses
Hypothesesofof
Means
Means

H o: µ o = µ 1
H 1: µ o > µ 1
Problem with Centering H 2: µ o < µ 1
Ho: σ o = σ 1
or H 1: σ o > σ 1
H 2: σ o < σ 1

Problem with Spread Hypotheses

Hypothesesofof
Standard
Standard
Deviations
Deviations

116
 Hypothesis Testing: How It Works
❐ After data is collected, we calculate both:
❈ a Test Statistic (some form of a signal-to-noise ratio [SNR]
such as a Z- or T-Score), and
❈ a P-Value
❐ TheP-Value is the probability that such results could
occur when Ho is true
❐ The P-Value is based on an assumed or actual
reference distribution (Normal, T-distribution, Chi-
Square, F-distribution, etc.)

●
●Small
Small“P-Value”
“P-Value”
●
●Large
Large“P-Value”
“P-Value”
● Large SNR (e.g., t or Z ● Small SNR
● Large SNR (e.g., t or Z ● Small SNR

statistic)
statistic) ● H is Not Rejected
● Ho is Not Rejected
o
● H is Rejected
● Ho is Rejected
o 117
 P-Values Are Everywhere !
Normal Probability Plot
Homogeneity of Variance Test for Combo
Factor Levels
95%Confidence Intervals for Sigmas .999
1
.99
Bartlett's Test
.95

Probability
Test Statistic: 1.009
.80
P-Value : 0.315

.50
.20

Levene's Test .05

Test Statistic: 0.925 .01
P-Value : 0.341 .001

2
9 10 11 12
0.7 1.2 1.7 Mach 1
Average: 10.0799 Anderson-Darling Normality Test
StDev: 0.943184 A-Squared: 0.889
N: 25 P-Value: 0.020

Descriptive Statistics
Variable: Mach 1
One-Way Analysis of Variance
Anderson-Darling Normality Test
A-Squared: 0.889
Analysis of Variance P-Value: 0.020

Source DF SS MS F P Mean
StDev
10.0799
0.9432
Factor 1 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.740 Variance
Skewness
0.889597
0.511741
Error 48 53.71 1.12 Kurtosis
N
-1.14078
25
9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0
Total 49 53.83 Minimum 8.9821
1st Quartile 9.3571
Individual 95% CIs For Mean Median 9.7873
3rd Quartile 10.8440
Based on Pooled StDev 95%Confidence Interval for Mu Maximum 12.0670
Level N Mean StDev --+---------+---------+---------+---- 95% Confidence Interval for Mu
9.6906 10.4693
Mach 1 25 10.080 0.943 (-------------*-------------) 9.5 10.0 10.5 95% Confidence Interval for Sigma
Mach 2 25 9.980 1.161 (--------------*-------------) 0.7365 1.3121
--+---------+---------+---------+---- 95%Confidence Interval for Median
95% Confidence Interval for Median
9.3855 10.6151
Pooled StDev = 1.058 9.60 9.90 10.20 10.50

118
 Hypothesis and Decision Risk

P Value Is Extremely Important

Remember This Key Saying….

If P is Low , Ho Must Go!

How Low Must P Be ?\
It Depends
We would like there to be less than a 10% chance that these
observations could have occurred randomly (A;pha = .10)
Five percent is much more comfortable (Alpha= .05)
One percent feels very good (Alpha = .01)
This alpha level is based on our assumption of “no
difference” and a reference distribution of some sort
But, it depends on interests and consequences 119
 Steps in Hypothesis Testing
1. Define the Practical Problem
2. State the Objectives (Create the Statistical Problem)
3. Establish the Hypotheses
- State the Null Hypothesis (Ho)
- State the Alternative Hypothesis (Ha).
4. Decide on appropriate statistical test (assumed probability
distribution, z, t, or F).
5. State the Alpha level (usually 5%)
6. State the Beta level (usually 10-20%)
7. Establish the Effect Size (Delta)
8. Establish the Sample Size

120
 Steps Continued
9. Develop the Sampling Plan
10. Select Samples
11. Conduct test and collect data
12. Calculate the test statistic (z, t, or F) from the data.
13. Determine the probability of that calculated test statistic
occurring by chance.
14. If that probability is less than alpha, reject Ho and accept
Ha. If that probability is greater than alpha, do not reject
Ho. ( Practically Accept H0)
15. Replicate results and translate statistical conclusion to
practical solution.

121
 α Risk Factor
α is used to indicate the degree of risk we are willing to
take in falsely rejecting the Null Hypothesis (Type 1 Error)
 We use α as the threshold value (also called significance level) to
make our accept/reject decision
If P<α , reject null hypothesis (change did occur)
If P>α , accept null hypothesis (no change)
 The practical implication of this risk is that we will take action
which will not yield any improvement
 Therefore, the α value we choose should include these practical
considerations - financial risk, safety risk, risk of customer
impact of the change
 A typical value for α is 5% or 10%

122
 Significance Level
Common
Commonstatement:
statement: ...
...so
sounlikely
unlikely...
...
You
Youshould
shouldask:
ask: How
Howunlikely
unlikelywere
werethey?
they?
The
Theanswer:
answer: The
Thesignificance
significancelevel
level(α
(α ))

We would like there to be less than a 10% chance that the

observations could have occurred randomly (α = .10)
Five percent is much more comfortable (α = .05)
One percent feels very good (α = .01)

The
Thealpha
alphalevel
levelis
isbased
basedon
onour
ourassumption
assumptionofofno
nodifference
difference
between
betweenthe
theobserved
observedpopulation
populationand
andaareference
referencedistribution
distribution

123
 Analyze Roadmap
X Data
Single X Multiple Xs

X Data X Data
Discrete Continuous Discrete Continuous
Single Y

Discrete

Discrete
Multiple Multiple
Logistic
Chi-Square Logistic Logistic
Regression Regression Regression
Y Data

Y Data
Continuous

Continuous
ANOVA 2, 3, 4 way...
Y Data

ANOVA Multiple
Means/ Regression
Regression
Medians Tests Medians Tests
Multiple Ys

Multivariate Analysis
(Note: This Is Not The Same As Multi-Vari Charts)

124
 Analyze Roadmap
Single X - Single Y
X Data
Discrete Continuous
Discrete

Logistic
Chi-Square
Regression
Y Data

Continuous

ANOVA Regression
Means / Medians Tests

125
 Review


 Introduced
Introducedthe
thebasic
basicconcepts
conceptsof
of
Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing
Testing


 Linked
LinkedHypothesis
HypothesisTesting
Testingto
toupcoming
upcoming
topics
topics

126
 Hypothesis Testing Terms
1. Null Hypothesis (Ho) - Statement of no change or difference. This statement is
assumed true until sufficient evidence is presented to contradict the statement.
2. Type I Error - The chance of the “false positive”; saying there’s something
important going on when nothing really is.
3. Alpha Risk - The maximum risk or probability of making a Type I Error. This
probability is always greater than zero, and is usually established at 5%. The
researcher makes the decisions to the greatest level of risk that is acceptable
for a false positive.
4. Significance Level - Same as Alpha Risk.
5. Alternative Hypothesis (Ha) - Statement of change or difference. This
statement is considered true if Ho is rejected.
6. Type II Error - The chance of a “false negative”; saying there is nothing
important going on when there really is. This is your biggest risk in process
breakthrough!

127
 Terms Continued
7. Beta Risk - The risk or probability of making a Type II Error, or overlooking an
effective solution to the problem.
8. Significant Difference - The term used to describe the results of a statistical hypothesis
test where a difference is too large to be reasonably attributed to chance.
9. Power - The ability of a statistical test to detect something important when there really
is something important to detect. Commonly used to determine if sample sizes are
sufficient to detect a difference in treatments if one exists.
10.Test Statistic - a standardized value (z, t, F, etc.) which represents the feasibility of a
false positive, and is distributed in a known manner such that a probability for this
observed value can be determined. Usually, the more feasible the false positive is, the
smaller the absolute value of the test statistic, and the greater the probability of
observing this value within its distribution.

128
 P-VALUE (OBSERVED SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL)
 The P-value is the probability that the test statistic will
take on a value that is at least as extreme as the
observed value of the statistic when the null hypothesis
H0 is true.
 Thus, a P-value conveys much information about the
weight of evidence against H0, and so a decision maker
can draw a conclusion at any specified level of
significance.
 The P-value is the smallest level of significance that
would lead to rejection of the null hypothesis H0.
 IF P-VALUE LESS THAN ‘α ’, REJECT THE NULL
HYPOTHESIS H0. with 100 (1-p) level of confidence.
129
TEST
TESTON
ONMEANS-UNKNOWN VARIANCESFROM
MEANS-UNKNOWNVARIANCES FROM MINITAB
MINITAB
 Open MINITAB Worksheet.
 Enter each sample data in separate columns..
 Choose STAT > BASIC STATISTICS > 2-SAMPLE t
 choose samples in different columns.
 In first, enter the first sample data column.
 In second, enter the second sample data column
 check for assume equal variances.
 Enter OK.
 If, P-value < 0.05; Reject the Null Hypothesis.
130
 EXAMPLE-TEST ON MEANS OF PAIRED DATA
• Two different types of machines are used to measure the
tensile strength of synthetic fiber. We wish to determine
whether or not the two machines yield the same average
tensile strength values. Eight specimens of fiber are randomly
selected, and one strength measure is made using each
machine on each specimen and are shown in the table.
Paired tensile strength data
Specimen Machine1 Machine 2 Difference
1 74 78 -4
2 76 79 -3
3 74 75 -1
4 69 66 3
5 58 63 -5
6 71 70 1
7 66 66 0
8 65 67 -2

131
 TEST ON MEANS OF PAIRED DATA
 The data in this experiment have been paired to prevent
difference between fiber specimens (which could be
substantial) from affecting the test on the difference between
machines. The test procedure consists of obtaining the
differences of the pair of observations on each of the ‘n’
specimens, say dj = (X1j – X2j ); j = 1,2, ..., n, and then testing
the hypothesis that the mean of the difference µ d is zero.
Note that testing H0 : µ d = 0 is equivalent to testing H0 : µ 1
= µ 2 ; furthermore, the test on µ d is just the one-sample t
test. The test statistic is

132
 TEST ON MEANS OF PAIRED DATA

d
t0 =
Sd n
1 n
where d = ∑dj
n j =1
2
 n 
∑d j 
 
∑ (d )
n n
 
∑
2 j = 1
j −d d 2
j −
j =1 j =1 n
and S =
2
d =
n−1 n−1

and H 0 : µ d = 0 is rejected if t 0 > tα/2,n− 1

133
 EXAMPLE-TEST ON MEANS OF PAIRED DATA
In our example we find that
1 n 1
d = ∑ d j = (−11) = −1.38
n j =1 8
2
 n 
 ∑ dj 
 
( )
n
  −
2
∑ 11
j =1
dj −
2
65 −
j =1 n 8 = 7.13
Sd =
2
=
n −1 7
P value = 0.094
Therefore, the test statistic
d − 1.38
t0 = = = −1.46
Sd n 2.67 8
• Choosing α = 0.05, we find p value is 0.094, and we conclude
that there is no strong evidence to indicate that the two
machines differ in their mean tensile strength measurements.
134
 TEST
TESTON
ONMEANS
MEANSOFOFPAIRED DATAFROM
PAIREDDATA FROM
MINITAB
MINITAB
 Open MINITAB Worksheet.
 Enter each sample data in separate columns of equal
length..
 Choose STAT > BASIC STATISTICS > PAIRED t
 In first sample, enter the first sample data column.
 In second sample, enter the second sample data column
 Enter OK.
 If, P-value < 0.05; Reject the Null Hypothesis.

135
 TEST
TESTON
ONTEST
TESTON VARIANCESFROM
ONVARIANCES FROM MINITAB
MINITAB
 Open MINITAB Worksheet.
 Enter each sample data in separate columns of equal
length..
 Choose STAT > BASIC STATISTICS >
2 VARIANCES
 choose samples in different columns
 In first sample, enter the first sample data column.
 In second sample, enter the second sample data column
 Enter OK.
 If, P-value < 0.05; Reject the Null Hypothesis.
136
137
Example
There was a change in the process and the process owner claimed that the average cycle time has
reduced.
The data shows the follow
Old process: 15, 20, 12, 5, 30
New process: 8, 9, 12, 11
Is his claim tenable or true?

Ho(Null Hypothesis): There is no difference in the mean delivery time between old process & new
process:
Mu Old = Mu New
Steps for MINITAB
1. STAT>Basic Statistics>2 Variances>Click>enter variables>OK
2. Interpret P-Value in F-Test
3. If P-Value<0.05 reject Ho
4. Declare characteristics are different
5. Look at the Sigma Values in the Session
6. STAT>Basic Statistics>2 Sample t>Click>enter variables>Click/No click “Assume equal variances”
based on
Step 3 results> (Ensure Alternatives in Options is “ not Equal”)>Graphs>Boxplot> OK
7. If P-Value<0.05 reject Ho
8. Declare characteristics are different
9. Look at the Summaries in the Session
10. Use Box-plot graph as a presentation tool

138
Test for Equal Variances
Level1 Old Process
Level2 New Process
ConfLvl 95.0000
Bonferroni confidence intervals for standard deviations
Lower Sigma Upper N Factor Levels
5.23095 9.34345 32.3241 5 Old Process
0.95953 1.82574 8.6467 4 New Process
F-Test (normal distribution)
Test Statistic: 26.190
P-Value : 0.023
Levene's Test (any continuous distribution) Boxplots of Old Proc and New Proc
(means are indicated by solid circles)
Test Statistic: 2.845
30
P-Value : 0.136
Test for Equal Variances: Old Process vs New Process
20
Two-Sample T-Test and CI: Old Process, New Process

10

Old Proc New Proc

139
THE CHI-SQUARE TEST

140
 THE CHI-SQUARE TEST
 We talked of averages and standard deviations but we
may also have to deal with attributes.
 For attribute data we use the Chi-Square Test (χ 2 )
(Pronounced as Ki of Kite).
 This Test, tests the frequency of the actual occurrence
vs. the frequency of expected occurrence to help decide
whether significant change has occurred.

E.g.: A coin is flipped 100 times. Heads occurs 40 times while

tail occurs 60 times.

Did it happen by chance? (or) Is the coin a trick coin ?

141
 THE CHI-SQUARE GOODNESS OF FIT TEST
• The test procedure requires a random sample of size ‘n’ of
the random variable ‘X’, whose probability density function
is unknown. These n observations are arrayed in a frequency
histogram, having ‘k’ class intervals. Let Oi be the observed
frequency in the ith class interval. From the hypothesized
probability distribution we compute the expected frequency
in the ith class interval, denoted Ei. The test statistic is

2 k (Oi - Ei )2
χ = ∑
0 i=1 E
i
It can be shown that χ χ 2 approximately follows chi − square distribution with k − p − 1 degress of
0
freedom,where p represents the number of parameters of the hypothesized distribution estimated
by sample statistics. This approximation improves as n increases. We would reject the hypothesis
that X conform s to the hypothesized distribution if χ 2 > χ 2 .
0 α , k − p−1

142
 EXAMPLE -THE CHI-SQUARE GOODNESS OF FIT TEST
• A computer scientist has developed an algorithm for
generating random integers over the interval 0-9. He codes
the algorithm and generates 1000 random digits and the data
is shown below. Is there evidence that the random number
generator is working correctly.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Total n
Observed 94 93 112 101 104 95 100 99 108 94 1000
frequencies, Oi

Expected 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1000
frequencies, E i

143
 EXAMPLE -THE CHI-SQUARE GOODNESS OF FIT TEST
• If the random number generator is working correctly, then
the values 0-9 should follow the discrete uniform distribution,
which implies that each of the integers should occur exactly
100 times. That is, the expected frequencies Ei = 100, for i = 0,
1, 2, …, 9. Since these expected frequencies can be determined
without estimating any parameters from the sample data, the
resulting chi-square goodness of fit test will have
(k-p-1) = 10-0-1 = 9 degrees of freedom.
• The observed value of the test statistic is
2
2 k (Oi - E i ) (94 - 100) 2 (93 - 100) 2 (94 - 100) 2
χ = ∑ = + + ... + = 3.72
0 i=1 E 100 100 100
i

Since χ 2 = 16.92, we are unable to reject the hypothesis that the data come fom a discrete
0.05, 9
uniform distribution. Therefore, the random number generator seems to be working satisfactorily.

144
EXAMPLE -THE CHI-SQUARE GOODNESS OF FIT TEST

A coin is flipped 100 times. Heads occurs 40 times while tail

occurs 60 times.

Did it happen by chance? (or) Is the coin a trick coin ?

H0: The difference is due to chance

H1: The diff. is such that it can be attributed to the
existence of some assignable cause .
OUTCOME OBSERVED (O) EXPECTED (E)
HEAD 40 50
TAIL 60 50

145
EXAMPLE -THE CHI-SQUARE GOODNESS OF FIT TEST
OUTCOME OBSERVED (O) EXPECTED (E) (O-E)2/E
HEAD 40 50 2
TAIL 60 50 2

We use MINITAB and find that p value is 0.005. Hence

We reject the Null hypothesis of independence.
It means Head occurs significantly less number of times than
Tails.

146
EXAMPLE -CHI-SQUARE CONTINGENCY TEST
Equal No. of Refrigerators from Bangalore, Hyderabad and
Mohali were checked for Compressor failure (CF), Leaks (L),
Thermostat failures (TF) & Relay failures (RF).
LOCATION CF L TF RF

BANG 15 21 45 13
HYD 26 31 34 5

MOHALI 33 17 49 20

Are rejections occurring dependent or independent of

where refrigerators are made ?
147
EXAMPLE -CHI-SQUARE CONTINGENCY TEST
H0: Defects are independent of location
H1 : Defects are dependent on location
LOCATION CF L TF RF TOTAL

OBS 15 21 45 13 94
BANG
EXP 22.51 20.99 38.94 11.5

OBS 26 31 34 5 96
HYD
EXP 22.9 21.44 39.77 11.81

OBS 33 17 49 20 119
MOHALI
EXP 28.5 26.57 49.29 74.63

TOTAL 74 69 128 38 309

To Calculate Expected for CF at BANG: = (94 x 74) /309 = 22.51

148
EXAMPLE -CHI-SQUARE CONTINGENCY TEST
χ 2
calc = 2.506+ 0 + 0.944 +0.179 +0.394 +4.266 +0.836 +3.923
+0.711 +3.449+0.002+1.967 =19.178
Degree of freedom = (no. of rows-1) (no. of columns-1)

= (4-1) x (3-1) = 6
The p value is 0.0039
Hence H0 is Rejected

Hence,
Hence, rejections
rejections are
are dependent
dependent ofof location
location of
of
production
production ofof Refrigerators.
Refrigerators.
149
CHI-SQUARE
CHI-SQUARECONTINGENCY TESTFROM
CONTINGENCYTEST FROM
MINITAB
MINITAB
 Open MINITAB Worksheet.
 Enter the data in separate columns in classification
variables..
 Choose STAT > TABLES > CHI-SQUARE TEST
 In columns containing the table, enter the data columns.
 Enter OK.
 If, P-value < 0.05; Reject the Null Hypothesis and
conclude that there is evidence for association.

150
Example
Data were collected for revisions in the drawing Region wise
Eastern: 10 out of 25, Northern: 2 out of 10,
Is the efficiency of the Northern region in getting the drawing approved better?

Ho(Null Hypothesis): There is no difference in proportion of drawings revised between regions

P eastern= P northern

MINITAB Steps

Stat>Basic statistics>2 proportions > Summarise data>Enter Trials & successess(or failures whichever is
less)>OK
Interpret P-Value in the sessions as earlier
Test and CI for Two Proportions

Sample X N Sample p
1 10 25 0.400000
2 2 10 0.200000

Estimate for p(1) - p(2): 0.2

95% CI for p(1) - p(2): (-0.113594, 0.513594)
Test for p(1) - p(2) = 0 (vs not = 0): Z = 1.25 P-Value = 0.211

* NOTE * The normal approximation may be inaccurate for small samples.

151
Example
There are three methods for welding a tube
Method 1 - Single-V Weld Prep – 80 joints inspected 5 were reported unacceptable
Method 2 – J-prep – 100 joints inspected 2 were reported unacceptable
Method 3 – Square ends – 50 joints inspected 10 were reported unacceptable
What do you conclude about the performance of the different methods?

Ho = there is no difference among the methods

Minitab Steps
Enter the data in the worksheet in three columns>Stat>Tables>Chi-sqare test>OK
Interpret P value and look for largest value in the Chi-square calculation if P value <0.05

Chi-Square Test: acceptable, not acceptable

Expected counts are printed below observed counts

acceptab not acce Total
1 75 5 80
74.09 5.91
2 98 2 100
92.61 7.39 Chi-Square
3 40 10 50 Calculation
46.30 3.70
Total 213 17 230
Chi-Sq = 0.011 + 0.141 + 0.314 + 3.932 + 0.858 + 10.754 = 16.011
DF = 2, P-Value = 0.000
1 cells with expected counts less than 5.0
Means Ho is not valid

152
ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE

(ANOVA)

153
 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE (ANOVA)
 Analysis of variance is a technique for examining whether
there exist significant differences between two or more
population averages.
 Generally the case of two samples is dealt with by the t-
test.
 Analysis of Variance is a powerful tool applicable for two
different purposes.
a. To identify the dominant 'factors' from a list of suspects;
b. To estimate the contribution of different factors in the
variation of the characteristic under study.
154
 Procedure : ANOVA of One Way Classification

1. Let ‘X’ denote the individual observations, ‘n’ the number of

observations in each of ‘k’ samples and N = kn.
2. Compute the totals t1, t2, tk, of all samples and grand total
T = Σ ti = Σ Xi
3. Compute T2/N -This is known as correction factor (CF).
4. Square all observations and obtain their total as Σ Xi2.
5. Subtract (3) from (4) to obtain Σ Xi2- T2/N. This is the total
sum of squares with (N - 1) degrees of freedom.
6. Compute ti2 for each sample and add. Divide the result by
‘n’ to give Σ ti2/n.
155
 Procedure : ANOVA of One Way Classification
7. Subtract (3) from (6) to obtain Σ ti2/n-T2/N. This is between
samples sum of squares with (k-1) degrees of freedom.
8. Subtract (6) from (4) to obtain Σ Xi2 - Σ ti2/n. This is the
'residual' or 'within samples sum of squares' with (N-k)
degrees of freedom.
9. Verify that (5) = (7) + (8).
10. Prepare an analysis of variance table as follows:
Source of SS df MS F Estimates of
variation components of
variance
Between samples (7) k-1 B B/A (B-A)/n

Within Samples (8) or N-k A A

(5)-(7)

Total (5) N-1

156
 Procedure : ANOVA of One Way Classification

11. Obtain the mean squares by dividing the sum of squares by

the appropriate degrees of freedom.

12. Compute F as the ratio of ‘between samples’ (class) mean

square to the 'within class' means square (residual).

13. If the computed value of F is greater than the tabular value,

then there is evidence that the ‘k’ samples have different
means. Note that each one of the means is not necessarily
different from every other mean.

157
 EXAMPLE-ANOVA
• The cycle time in hours for closure of customer complaints from
the four regions were recorded as follows (Data are coded):
Manager feels that the regions affect the time for closure of a
customer complaint

REGION
E W N S
66 74 55 52
65 71 56 49
72 60 55 55
69 65 49 53
70 66 53 51
342 336 268 260

158
 EXAMPLE-ANOVA
The method of computation for analysis of variance is as follows:
1. Sum of all observations: 66 + 65 + … + 51 = 1206.
2. Number of observations (N): 20
3. Square (1) and divide by (2): (1206)2/20 = 72721.8. This is
called correction factor (CF).
4. Square each individual observations and add:
662 + 652 +............ + 512 = 74060
5. Square each column total and divide their sum by the number of
observations in each column:
3422+3362+2682+2602 = 73856.8
5

159
 EXAMPLE-ANOVA
6. Total sum of squares : (4) - (3) = 1338.2
degrees of freedom for this are N - 1 = 19.
7. Sum of squares between regions: (5) - (3) = 1135.0
degrees of freedom for this = No. of levels -1 = 4 - 1 = 3.
8. Residual sum of squares: (6) - (7) = 203.2
degrees of freedom for this = 16.
The analysis of variance table is now set up as follows:
Source of variation Sum of Degrees of Mean F
Squares freedom Squares
Between regions 1135.0 3 378.3 29.8**

Residual 203.2 16 12.7

Total 1338.2 19

160
 EXAMPLE-ANOVA

• The null hypothesis is that there is no real difference between

regions. This hypothesis is tested by the F statistic for the ratio
between regions mean square to residual mean square. The
calculated value of F = 29.8. For 3 and 16 degrees of freedom
exceeds the tabular value 5.29 of F, even at 1% level of
significance.

• Therefore the null hypothesis is rejected and it is concluded

that real differences between regions - exist.

161
 ANOVA FROM
ANOVA FROM MINITAB
MINITAB
 Open MINITAB Worksheet.
 Enter the data in one column and its corresponding level
of the factor in another column
 Choose STAT > ANOVA > ONE-WAY
 In response, enter the data column.
 In factor, enter the levels of the factor column.
 Enter OK.
 If, P-value < 0.05; Reject the Null Hypothesis and
conclude that there is a difference in means for all the
levels of the factor.
162
Example

There are four ways of moulding a casting

Method1 – Without painting the mould – 196, 198, 202, 201 (Hardness Values in BHN)
Method2 – Painting the mould in single wash – 178, 200, 185, 203
Method3 – Painting the mould in two washes – 205, 190, 210,
Question1- Are the methods giving same results with respect to variation in Hardness and average
Hardness?

Case1 Ho: There is no difference among the methods w.r.t. variation in Hardness: σ 21= σ 22 = σ 2
3
Case 2 Ho : There is no difference among the methods w.r.t. average Hardness: µ 1= µ 2 = µ 3

Steps for testing of equal variances

Stack the data>Manip>Stack>Identify columns>Identify storage column>ok
Stat>Anova>test for equal variances>enter response and factors>ok
Interpret P value in Bartlett’s test –if P value is less than 0.05 conclude at least one of the variances are
different
Conclusion as usual
Test for equal means
Stat>Anova(one way or one way unstacked)>enter variables>graphs>boxplot>ok>ok
Interpret P Value in the Session (Analysis of Variance Table)-if P value <0.05 conclude at least one of the
means is different
Delete the suspect and retest
Use Boxplot as a presentation tool

163
164
Boxplots of response by methods

Boxplots of response by methods

(means are indicated by solid circles)

210

200
response

190

180

methods
method1

method2

method3

165
 CONCEPT OF

DESIGN OF

EXPERIMENTS (D.O.E.)

166
 DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTS
Design of experiments (DOE) is a valuable tool to optimize
product and process designs, to accelerate the development
cycle, to reduce development costs, to improve the transition of
products from research and development to manufacturing
and to effectively trouble shoot manufacturing problems.
Today, Design of Experiments is viewed as a quality
technology to achieve product excellence at lowest possible
overall cost.

167
 IN DESIGN OF EXPERIMENT

• You will find the 1st cut of important X’s which

are very important.

• At what levels each of these X’s has to be set on.

• The best possible combination of levels for all

the important factors so as to optimize the
process.

168
 STATISTICALLY DESIGNED EXPERIMENTS
 A statistically designed experiment permits simultaneous
consideration of all the possible factors that are suspected to
have bearing on the quality problem under investigation and
as such even if interactions effect exist, a valid evaluation of the
main effect can be made. Scanning a large number of variables
is one of the ready and simpler objectives that a statistically
designed experiment would fulfill in many problem situations.

 Even a limited number of experiments would enable the

experimenter to uncover the vital factors as which further
trials would yield useful results. The approach has number of
merits, it is quick, reliable and efficient.

169
 OBJECTIVES OF EXPERIMENTATION
The following are some of the objectives of experimentation in an
industry :

 Improving efficiency or yield

 Finding optimum process settings
 Locating sources of variability
 Correlating process variables with product characteristics
 Comparing different processes, machines, materials etc
 Designing new processes and products.

170
DIFFERENT FACTORS OF EXPERIMENTATION

1. Recognition and Statement of the Problem

2. Choice of Factors and Levels
3. Selection of a Response Variables
4. Choice of Experimental Design
5. Performing the Experiment
6. Data Analysis
7. Conclusions and Recommendations

171
 SOME IMPORTANT DESIGNS

 Completely Randomized Design (CRD)

 Randomized Block Design (RBD)
 Incomplete Randomized Block Design (IRBD)
 Latin Square Design (LSD)
 Factorial Design
 Fractional Factorial Design
 Orthogonal Array (OA) Design

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